review of predictability and model error issues related to ... 4.10/davis... · vortex-scale...
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Review of Predictability and Model Error Issues Related to
Tropical Cyclones
Chris Davis
NCAR
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Limitations on Forecast Accuracy
• Fundamental– Predictability limitations– Definition of intensity; metrics of accuracy
• Addressable error sources– Ocean coupling– Resolution: resolve eye wall– Large-scale environment (shear, etc.)
• Difficult to address– Air-sea fluxes (enthalpy flux)– Cloud physics (particle sizes)– Aerosols– Better observations of storm structure
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Different Perspectives
Ground relative, probabilistic Storm relative, deterministic
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Predictability
• Three time scales
– Convection: H/w ~ 103 s
– Vortex: R/V ~ 104 s
– Synoptic-scale: L/U ~ 105 s.
• Implications
– Convective elements unpredictable
– Vortex Rossby waves, inner rainbands very hard to predict (rapid intensification)
– Nearly everything we can predict is on the synoptic scale
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What is included in large scale?
• Steering flow
• Lower-boundary conditions
• Vertical wind shear
• Outer wind radii
– Forecasts from NCAR Advanced Hurricane Research WRF (AHW) show long time-scale decay of skill
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Vortex-scale Fluctuations
Van Sang et al, 2008: QJRMS
MM5
Simulations,
dx=5km
Intrinsic
fluctuations of
inner core of
idealized
hurricane
~10 m/s.
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Intensity Fluctuations
Handled better at high-resolution, but still essentially no skill
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Verification of Forecasts: Errors in Observations
• Maximum 1-m sustained 10-m wind
– Highly localized quantity
– Uncertainty: Reconnaissance vs. no recon.
– 5 knot binning (NHC) probably best case
• Minimum sea-level pressure
– Errors scale as v2: large for strong storms (nearly 20 mb for Cat 5)
• Storm position
– Essentially zero error for strong storms
– Surprisingly large uncertainties in weak systems (depressions or strongly sheared storms)
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Ensemble Error and Spread in Position
Ana
lysis
RM
SE
Ana
lysis
Spre
ad
6-h
Fcst
RM
SE
6-h
Fcst
Spre
ad
From Ryan Torn, U. Albany, SUNY
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Black et al., 2007: BAMS
Cool wake behind hurricane:
How much cooling under eye wall?
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Upper Ocean Structure
Benjamin and Shay, 2007
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Chen et al., 2007: BAMS
Varying Horizontal Grid Spacing
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Varying Horizontal Grid Spacing
AHW forecasts of Rita and Felix with 4-km and
1.33-km innermost nests: more difference for
smaller storm (Felix).
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Turbulent Mixing
Bryan and Rotunno, 2010
Intensity highly dependent
on horizontal mixing length
(not vertical), 2-D and 3-D.
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PBL
Nolan et al., 2009:
Max winds not
affected too much by
PBL
Results more like
each other than the
real storm:
however, could be
many reasons for this.
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Contoured Frequency by Altitude Diagrams (CFADS)
Rogers et al. 2007: JAS
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Contoured Frequency by Altitude Diagrams (CFADS)
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Microphysical Influence on Intensity
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Air-sea Exchange
?
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On the coupling of initial condition and physics errors
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Initial Conditions for Erika 0902/06Z (cross section of meridional velocity)
No tilt (HWRF) vs. tilt (AHW)
HWRF
Ens. mean is
contoured
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Erika 12-km vs. 1.33-km nest: Min SLP
Too much intensification on 12-km grid with K-F scheme, roughly half of HWRF error
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Initial Conditions vs. Physics
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Concluding Remarks
• Significant predictability limits to intensity forecasts– Inner core fluctuations vs. external influences
• Large uncertainty to microphysics, air-sea interaction and turbulence: inter-relationships?– Turbulence effects entrainment; transport of aerosol
– Details of fluxes dependent on many unknowns or complex processes (spray, ocean waves, etc)
• Well-defined tests needed to unravel sources of physical errors versus initial conditions: not always possible