renewable energy - supply chain requirements ... kerr...renewable energy - supply chain...

01 October 2004 © Avayl Engineering Consultancy

Renewable Energy - Supply Chain Requirements,Opportunities and ConstraintsWind, Water and Biomass29th September 2004EDAS Stephen Kerr

B Eng (Aero) C Eng MIMechE

Photo Courtesy Vestas Wind Systems AS


Introduction

�What are the technologies and supplychain requirements?

�What are the opportunities andconstraints?


Technologies� Wind

� Onshore� Offshore

� Water� Wave – near shore / far shore� Tidal – barrage / in situ device

� Biomass� Thermal - forestry residues / dedicated energy

crops / municipal and domestic waste� Anearobic digestion - agricultural residues /

municipal and domestic waste� Landfill gas - municipal and domestic waste


Domestic wood pellet boiler

8MW Gasifier plant Pelletisation


When?…all now


Scotland – Current StatusSum of Capacity (in MW) Status

Technology Exist

ing

Cons

ented

Appli

catio

n noti

fied

Pre-a

pplic

ation

notifi

ed

With

drawn

/Refu

sed

SRO

- Outs

tandin

g

Gran

d Tota

l

Biomass 19.0 55.7 22.5 97.2Coal 1,152.0 1,152.0Coal, co-firing with biomass 2,304.0 2,304.0Hydro 1,323.9 16.0 119.8 28.7 3.6 5.5 1,497.4Landfill Gas 23.7 1.9 87.5 113.1Nuclear 2,735.0 2,735.0Off-shore wind 180.0 180.0Oil and Gas 3,558.0 400.0 3,958.0On-shore wind 236.2 744.7 2,601.5 3,777.1 161.2 27.6 7,548.3Pulp and paper 8.3 8.3Pumped storage 705.0 705.0Wave 0.0 0.0Grand Total 12,065.1 1,342.6 2,777.0 3,805.8 164.8 143.1 20,298.3


Technologies - Issues� Wind

� Well developed leading concept – evolutionaryR&D by market leaders

� Cost competitive with fossil fuels� Rapid up-scaling – manufacturing / logistics /

operations focus� Water

� Multitude of concepts – none well proven� Not currently cost competitive with fossil fuels� Technological challenges – design / survivability /

maintainability� Will tend to large scale – MW devices


Technologies - Issues� Biomass

� Several concepts / technologies relevant – large & smallscale

� Cost competitive with fossil fuels in certain situations� Ongoing developments in plant efficiency� Offers security of supply and base generation� Thermal - dominant technology, good fit with agricultural

activity but fuel supply chain difficulties to date� Anearobic digestion - sparsely deployed� Both offer competitive heat generation / co-firing options� Landfill gas – short term solution� All address waste management issues to varying degrees� Poorly supported to date in UK (policy, planning and public

acceptance) but signs of change


Arnish Point, Cambrian Engineering- piles / towers

Machrihanish VestasCeltic – turbine /towers

Kirkcaldy NOIScotland –blades

Kilmarnock, ProvenEngineering – micro turbines

Some Examples of Current Activity –Manufacturing / Supply

Nordex – Turbineservicing base

Glenelg, Chillwindmast installation

Balmoral Composites– GRP nacelle covers

Orkney, Brian RendallElectrical installation

Brora, Edward MacKayCivil Works and Transportation

Nigg, Isleburn- piles / towersWavegen – OWC near

shore device

OPD – Pelamis device

Shetland

Ross Deeptech –fabrication Pelamis


Wind –Supply Chain

Value Analysis


Supply Chain Value analysis� Onshore wind farm

Project DevelopmentStudies

3%

Legal & Financial5%

Project Management &Design

2%

Turbine57%

Civil Construction13%

Transportation &Installation

3%MEI Installation

6%Main connections

11%

Circa 30% UKcontent currently


Supply Chain Value analysis�Turbine value analysis

Blades16%Control system

14%

Tower12%

Gearbox11%

Yaw assembly10%

Pitch control8%

Generator6% Main shaft

5% Other5%

Nacelle cover4%

Assembly time4%

Hub assembly3%

Bed plate2%


14 m

4.5 m

Layout GE Wind 3.6 MWSeparated drive train & crane system


Supply Chain Value analysisMain turbine manufacturers

2002 DataCompany Country

MWProduced % Share

Turnover£ M Employees

Vestas DK 1,640 22% 836 5,974Enercon DE 1,333 18% 720 6,800NEG Micon DK 1,030 14% 505 2,180Gamesa ESP 924 12% 350 1,398GE Wind US 638 8% n/a 1,700Bonus DK 509 7% 167 800Nordex DE 504 7% 267 791Made ESP 247 3% n/a n/aRePower DE 223 3% 151 390Ecotecnia ESP 120 2% n/a 350Others 371 5%

Source: EurObservRE 2004


Supply Chain Value analysisAreas of opportunities for Scotland

� Large scale turbine assembly facilities� Large scale blade manufacture� Tower / sub assembly steel fabricator(s)

and other support services / trades� Manufacture of other composite items e.g.

nacelle covers� Supply of control system components� Supply of sub system components, fixtures

and fittings


Supply Chain Value analysisAreas of opportunities for Scotland

� Manufacture of small wind turbines forcommunity / industrial use

� Development / Environmental studies� Site construction works� Heavy haulage and heavy lift cranes� Mast fabrication / erection� Operations / servicing hub� Turbine Research, Development & Test

Centre� Next generation R&D – 10MW turbine


Opportunities – Lesson from windand other industries

Research & DevelopmentDemonstration / Testing / StandardsCommercialisation – risk fundingManufacture for domestic marketManufacture for export marketConstruction / Operations

� More difficult to enter the higher valueelements later on…


Wave & Tidal - Opportunities� Increase R&D in Scotland�Design – IP rights�Testing – EMEC�Demonstration projects�Manufacture of components�Fabrication of structure�Operational support�Export


Wave & Tidal - Constraints�Level of funding still relatively poor� “Wave / Tidal are long term

opportunities…” yes, but in terms oflarge scale commercial generation

�Grid connection / electricity pricing�Funding commercialisation process


Biomass – Supply Chain Analysis

Source : DTI

Fuel Supply12%

Bulk material handling7%

Combustion System6%

Other22%

Installation18%

Boiler9%

Bottom ash collection /transfer

2%

Dust removal collection /transfer

2%

Electrical Systems10%

Cooling tower (aircooled)

4%

Continuous emissionsmonitoring

1%

Steam turbine &generator

7%


Biomass - Opportunities� Increase R&D in Scotland to suit

Scottish conditions� Fuel stock� District heating schemes� Off grid developments

�Fuel transportation network – bulkmaterial handling

�Domestic installations / servicing�Agricultural diversification


Biomass - Constraints�Public support much lower than other

renewable technologies (although stillmuch higher than fossil / nuclear)

�Fuel supply chain fragmented�Bulk of equipment is imported – little

R&D in Scotland aimed at technology�Overall lack of confidence in sporadic

market – developer / suppliers, needlong term national support


Scotland - Jobs Potential� Wind

� Onshore now 1200 peak 2500?� Offshore now 100 peak 1000?

� Water� now circa 200 peak 5000?

� Biomass� now circa 250 peak 2000?

Generally high quality long term jobsacademic through manufacture, constructionand operations

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