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Social Work Distance Education Conference

April 15-17, 2015

George L. Mehaffy

Universities in the 21st Century:

Peril and Promise in a New Age

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In fifty years, if not much

sooner,

half of the roughly 4,500

colleges

and universities now operating

in the United States will have

ceased to exist. “The End of the University as We Know It.” Nathan Harden. The American Interest. January/February 2013. http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1352

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Great reputation, loyal alumni, beautiful campus, $ 84 million endowment

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What Happened?

•Location: Rural

•Type of School: Women’s College

• Students: Competition for Shrinking Base of

Students

• Costs: Rising Costs

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Technology Changes Everything

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Think about the impact of technology:

On journalism…

On photography

On the music business…

On the book publishing/selling business…The Long Tail. Chris Anderson (Hyperion, 2006)

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One of technology’s impact on business:store closings

Abercrombie and Fitch 180 By 2015Barnes and Noble 223 Over 9 yearsAeropostale 175 Next few yearsJC Penney 33 By mid-2014Radio Shack 1,100Just announcedStaples 225 By 2015Sears 500 Going ForwardFamily Dollar 370 2014

http://247wallst.com/special-report/2014/03/12/retailers-closing-the-most-stores/

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Robert Darnton

Four Great Information Ages

•Invention of Writing, Mesopotamia, 4,000 BC

•Moveable type

•Mass steam-powered presses, Industrial Age

•Internet, after 1993

Now You See It: Attention and the Future of Learning. Cathy N. Davidson, http://chancellor.ucdavis.edu/local_resources/pdfs/colloquium-11-12/ccvol2_cathy_davidson.pdf

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Public Higher Education

The Meta-Problems

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Based on the trends since 1980, average state fiscal support for higher education will reach zero by 2059.State Funding: A Race to the Bottom. Thomas G. Mortensonhttp://www.acenet.edu/the-presidency/columns-and-features/Pages/state-funding-a-race-to-the-bottom.aspx

1. State Expenditures for Higher Education

(as a percentage of all expenditures: local, state, federal, personal)

1975: 60% 2010: 34%But huge variations in states: From 1980 to 2011-

Colorado 69 % declineMinnesota 56 % declineNorth Dakota 1 % increaseWyoming 3 % increase

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Sources: College Board, “Trends in College Pricing, 2008”; Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2009, www.bls.gov ; U.S. Census, Current Population Study-ASEC, 2008. From the Delta Project. Courtesy Jane Wellman

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Median inflation-adjusted 7%household income, 2006 – 2011

Tuition at public four year 18%Institutions, 2006 – 2011

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/01/opinion/my-valuable-cheap-college-degree.html?_r=0Public higher education – an historic

threshold: Students about to pay a higher percentage than the state. 2012 – net tuition 47% of public colleges’ costs.http://chronicle.com/article/StudentsStates-Near-a/137709/

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3. Business Model

Higher education is a set of cross-

subsidies: graduate education subsidized

by undergraduate; upper division

subsidized by lower division Jane Wellman, Delta

Project

http://www.deltacostproject.org/

We also have cross-subsidies by disciplines.

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Instructional Costs

Public-four Year Averages, 4-state cost study

(SUNY, Florida, Ohio, Illinois)

% of all credits taken

% of total spending on instruction

Avg weighted cost/credit

Lower Division 36% 23% 1.00

Upper Division 48% 44% 1.42

Grad 1 12% 23% 2.88

Grad 2 4% 9% 4.00

100% 100% 1.55

SHEEO, 2010 Courtesy Jane

Wellman

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NCES, BPS, undergraduates onlyCourtesy Jane Wellman

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Moody’s Inventor ServicesReport January 23, 2012

“Tuition levels are at a tipping point”

Higher education must innovate to remain viable

• Collaborations between colleges• More centralized management• More efficient use of facilities• Reduction in number of tenured faculty• Geographic and demographic

expansion of

course offerings

http://chronicle.com/article/article-

content/130434/

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4. Evidence of Success

2006 American Institutes for Research (AIR)

20% of U.S. college graduates only have basic quantitative literacy skills……unable to estimate if their car has enough gasoline to get to the next gas station.

More than 50% of students at 4-yr colleges lack the skills to perform complex literacy tasks, such as comparing credit card offers or summarizing the arguments of newspaper editorials.

http://www.air.org/news/index.cfm?fa=viewContent&content_id=445

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Academically AdriftR. Arum & J. Roksa

Study has indicated that 36% of students did not show any significant improvement in Collegiate Learning Assessment (CLA) performance over four years.

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Graduation Rate, 2010 Study

63.2% of 2003 students who began at a 4 -year college earned bachelor’s degree by 2009.

Beginning Postsecondary Survey, National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education.http://www.quickanded.com/2010/12/u-s-college-graduation-rate-stays-pretty-much-exactly-the-same.html

New Study 2012

Full time students: 75% in 6 yearsPart time students: 32% in 6 years

New National Tally of College Completion Tries to Count All Students. http://chronicle.com/article/New-National-Tally-of-College/135792/

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*** 60% (six out of ten) of Americans in 2010 said that colleges today … focused more on the bottom line than on the educational experience of students. http://www.highereducation.org/reports/squeeze_play_10/squeeze_play_10.pdf

*** In a recent survey, 80% said that at many colleges, education received is not worth the cost.Time Magazine, October 29, 2012, p. 37

*** Lumina survey in November/December 2012, three quarters (3/4) of respondents said that college is unaffordable.http://chronicle.com/article/Americans-Value-Higher/137023/

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http://chronicle.com/article/A-Boom-Time-for-Education/131229/

6. The Role of Venture Capitalists

New Start-Ups

UdacityUdemyUniversity NowCoursebookCoursekitCourseloadCourseRank

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7. Debt

DebtStudent loan debt exceeded credit card debt for the first time last year. More than $ one trillion dollars

Seven in 10 college seniors (71%) who graduated last year had student loan debt, with an average of $29,400 per borrower. http://projectonstudentdebt.org/state_by_state-data.php

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8. Inequality

1996 - 2012, public colleges and universities gave a declining portion of grants—as measured by both the number of grants and the dollar amounts—to students in the lowest quartile of family income.

The task of educating low-income students has increasingly fallen to community colleges and for-profit colleges.http://chronicle.com/article/Public-Colleges-Quest-for/141541/

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1 in 5 students from families with income over $ 250,000

1 in 10 students from families with income under $ 30,000

Percentage of 24 Year Olds with College Degrees

1970 2011

Top-income quartile: 40% 70%Bottom-income quartile 6% 10%

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/29/magazine/freebies-for-the-rich.html?_r=0

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“The higher education system is more and

more complicit as a passive agent in the

systematic reproduction of white racial

privilege across generations.  

Since 1995, 82 percent of new white

enrollments have gone to the 468 most

selective colleges, while 72 percent of new

Hispanic enrollment and 68 percent of new

African-American enrollment have gone to

the two-year open-access schools.”http://cew.georgetown.edu/separateandunequal/

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9. Career Preparation

Career Readiness: Colleges are doing a good job of preparing graduates.

Agree:Provosts 96% Business Leaders 11%

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2014/02/26/provosts-business-leaders-disagree-graduates-career-readiness

Employers are in broad agreement on college learning outcomes for all students, regardless of their chosen field of study.

All college students should have educational experiences that teach them how to solve problems with people whose views are different from their own

96%

87%

78%

Every college student should take courses that build the civic knowledge, skills, and judgment essential for contributing to our democratic society

Every college student should acquire broad knowledge in the liberal arts and sciences

All college students should gain an understanding of democratic institutions and values

86%

78%

Students/total agree

94%

85%

86%

83%

87%

All college students should gain intercultural skills and an understanding of societies and countries outside the United States

29

“Falling Short? College Learning and Career Success.” AAC&U study and presentation.Hart Research Associates. November/December 2014. Used with permission.

Employers give college graduates lower scores for preparedness across learning outcomes than current students give themselves.

Proportions who believe they/recent college graduates are well prepared in each area*

Working effectively with

others in teams

Staying current on

technologies

Ethical judgment and

decisionmaking

Locating, organizing,

evaluating information

Oral communication

Working with numbers/

statistics

Written communication

Critical/analytical thinking

Being innovative/creative

30

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Are we vulnerable to disruption?

Christensen and Eyring argue that

disruption comes from cheaper and

simpler technologies that are initially of

lower quality. Over time, the simpler and

cheaper technology improves to a point

that it displaces the incumbent.

The Innovative University. Clayton Christensen and Henry J. Eyring. 2011

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Our Critical Vulnerability: The College Degree

The college degree is a proxy for

student ability

Digital badges, e-portfolios, and competency credentials

Watch “LinkedIn” in the years ahead

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Clay Shirky ---

“The biggest threat those of us

working in colleges and universities

face isn’t video lectures or online

tests. It’s the fact that we live in

institutions perfectly adapted to an

environment that no longer exists.”

http://www.shirky.com/weblog/2014/01/

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The greatest challenge to our survival and success is

our inability and/or unwillingness to change.

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look like?

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Core Commitments

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“measured not by who we exclude, but rather by who we include and how they succeed”

Commitment to Access

“I don’t think the taxpayers of Florida voted to tax themselves to build a university that their children could not attend.”

John Hitt, President The University of Central Florida (UCF)

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A commitment to ACCESS: Multiple entry points

Make every effort to get students into the university:

•early college programs in high school•summer preparatory academies•testing in 11th grade and using 12th grade for remediation, etc.•community college pathways

And then make sure they succeed!

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A set of studies by AASCU, Ed Trust, and the National Association of System Heads (NASH)

Commitment to Student Success

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Commitment to Reducing Costs

•Time to Completion

•120 hours for all majors

•Reducing bottlenecks in completion

•Charging out-of-state for 30+

credits beyond graduation

requirements

•Intrusive advising and early

remediation

•Flat rate for summer courses

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Commitment to the Right Incentives

What counts in the new university?

What really matters?

What are the metrics of success?

Who gets rewarded / recognized?

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Perverse Incentives

Cardiac surgeons turned away the sickest and most severely ill patients after adopting performance-based health report cards.

Health disparities widened among White, Black, and Hispanic patients after introducing physician report cards.http://www.learningoutcomesassessment.org/documents/HillmanViewpoint.pdf

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Commitment to Rethinking

Status and Prestige

The winners will be those institutions that can define themselves and find the unique value that they provide.  Most universities are organized around envy models….in order to pursue higher-ranked institutions, a university has to become more selective, more elite, and more disconnected from its community.  

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Rules for the 21st Century 

•Define your value

•Forget about who is above you

•Focus on what differentiates

you

•Establish your own brand

•Don’t romanticize your

weaknesses

•Be open Abelard to Apple: The Fate of American Colleges and Universities. Richard A. DeMillo

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Internal Vulnerabilities

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Internal Vulnerabilities

1.Teaching Not Learning

2.Honoring Research Over Teaching

3.Changing Faculty Work/Culture

4.Bifurcated Model of Instruction

5.Faculty-Centric Model

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Our institutions were created as teaching

institutions, instead of learning institutions.

From Teaching to Learning - A New Paradigm for Undergraduate Education. Robert B. Barr and John Tagg. Change Magazine. Nov./.Dec., 1995.

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What are the key work and citizenship requirements of the 21st century?

--- Solving unstructured

problems

--- Working with new

information

--- Carrying out non-routine

tasks

--- Complex communication--- Expert thinking

The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane. 2005

What Are the Key Learning Outcomes?

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Ac a dem ic per form ance, 8 co horts of freshmen: 15,662 students, from fall 2001 to fall 2008.

Taking a course from non-tenure track fac ul ty mem bers:

• In creases the like li hood that a stu dent will take an oth er class in the sub ject

• In creases the grade earned in that sub se quent class

• Produces the greatest gains for weakest students

Northwestern University Study http://chronicle.com/article/Ad-juncts-Are-Bet-ter/141523/

2. Honoring Research Over Teaching

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3. Changing Faculty Work/Culture

Faculty will work in a networked world --- in a collaboration of faculty, other experts, and students across time and space. “As individuals we will have to

abandon that sense of ourselves as independent actors and agents.”

Checklist for Change. Robert Zemsky.http://chronicle.com/article/How-to-Build-a-Faculty-Culture/141887

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“Big Med.” Atul Gawande. The New Yorker. http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/08/13/120813fa_fact_gawande?currentPage=all

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In medical education, Darrell Kirch describes “An Emerging Culture for Health Care”

1.      Hierarchal to Collaborative

2.      Autonomous to Team-Based

3.      Competitive to Service-Based

4.      Individualistic to Mutually

Accountable

5.      Expert-centered to Patient-centered

“Higher Education and the Future of American Health Care” by Darrell G. Kirch, M.D., President and CEO, Association of American Medical Colleges (Washington, D.C., November 2, 2010). 

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•Split Cognitive and Affective Learning Outcomes

•Divided Academic Affairs and Student Affairs

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5. Faculty-Centric Model

Faculty-Centric Model of Instruction

The Rainbow Loom Story

The Future Role of Faculty

a. Creating Environmentsb. Working with Othersc. Conducting Research on Learning Outcomes

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The Key Issue

How do we educate more

students, with greater

learning outcomes, at

lower costs?

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Focus on Innovative Teaching

(and learning)

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Science Classes

The Carl Wieman Science Education Initiative

Three strategies:1. Reducing cognitive load2. Addressing beliefs3. Stimulating and guiding thinking

http://www.cwsei.ubc.ca/Experiment produced two times the learning outcomesDeslauriers, Schelew, and Wieman. Science. 13 May 2011, pp. 862 – 864.

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Flipped Courses

The “flipped” course. You do homework by watching lectures. You go to class to work on problems together.

Khan Academy: 2,400 videos covering everything from arithmetic to physics, finance, and history. Khan lessons viewed by more than 4 million people a month.

http://www.khanacademy.org/

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Open Learning Initiative (OLI) Carnegie Mellon University http://oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/index.php

Team: content specialist cognitive scientist instructional designer graphic designer

OLI-Statistics students learned a full semester’s worth of material in half as much time and performed as well or better than students learning from traditional instruction over a full semester.http://oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/publications/71-effectiveness-statistics0

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Math Emporiums

“Higher Education’s Silver Bullet” Carol Twigg http://www.changemag.org/Archives/Back%20Issues/2011/May-June%202011/math-emporium-full.html

3 Keys To Success:

1.Interactive computer software

2.Personalized on-demand assistance

3.Mandatory Student Participation

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A very old, very tired debate…..

Only evidence will end this argument (or maybe not)

What About Online v. Face-To-Face?

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SRI Studyhttp://www2.ed.gov/rschstat/eval/tech/evidence-based-practices/finalreport.pdf

Ithaka Studyhttp://www.sr.ithaka.org/research-publications/interactive-learning-online-public-universities-evidence-randomized-trials

No Significant Difference355 research reports, summaries and papers that document no significant differences (NSD) in student outcomes between alternate modes of education delivery.http://www.nosignificantdifference.org/

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March 13, 2015

The most methodologically rigorous

studies in this review join a growing list

of similarly rigorous research finding

that students in online and hybrid

formats perform about as well as their

counterparts in face-to-face sections. –

Online Learning in Postsecondary Education. A Review of the Empirical Literature (2013-2014). See more at: http://sr.ithaka.org/research-publications/online-learning-postsecondary-education#sthash.9gkkpcF0.dpuf

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…only in very rare cases is the modality of a course the primary reason for success.

type n Fall 09

Spring10

Summer 10

Fall 10

Spring11

Summer 11

Blended 56,316 91 91 91 90 90 94

Online 150,834 87 88 88 88 88 89

Face to face

665,209 87 88 88 87 87 91

Lecture Capture

12,050 87 83 86 84 84 79

Student Success by Modality in percentage of grade “C” or higher

Analytics That Inform the University: Using Data You Already Have.Charles Dziuban, Patsy Moskal, Thomas Cavanagh, Andre WattsJournal of Asynchronous Learning Networks, v16 n3 p21-38 Jun 2012

Massive Study: University of Central Florida

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However, what has been shown is that

mode is not an effective predictor of

success or withdrawal in courses. The

strongest predictor of success is

previous academic

performance (Dziuban, 2011).

Historically, students who have done

well in courses do well in any mode; a

course is a course.

Charles Dziuban. Teaching and Learning in an Evolving Educational EnvironmentEmory University.www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwratsdxrH8

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January 2015 Study presented at the

American Economic Association.

Finds that increases in online class size

have no impact on student grades,

student persistence in the course or

the likelihood of students enrolling in

future courses. https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2015/01/05/study-finds-no-impact-increasing-class-size-student-outcomes.

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Blended (hybrid) courses combine fact-to-

face classroom instruction with online

learning and reduced classroom contact

hours (reduced seat time)Charles Dziuban, Joel Hartman, Patsy Moskal. Blended Learning. EDUCAUSE. 2004 http://net.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/ERB0407.pdf

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Broad Course Re-Design George Kuh High Impact Practices

• First-year seminars and experiences• Common intellectual experiences• Learning communities• Writing-intensive courses• Collaborative assignments and projects• Undergraduate research• Diversity/global learning• Service learning, community-based learning• Internships • Capstone courses and projects

George Kuh. High-Impact Educational Practices: What They Are, Who Has Access to Them, and Why They Matter. AAC&U, 2008. Ensuring Quality & Taking High Impact Practices to Scale.AAC&U, 2013.

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And challenge old assumptions: who’s college ready?

A simple example: college algebra

Are students not prepared?

Or are we the ones who are not ready?

Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching:Statways and Quantways

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University of Texas Chemistry 301 David Laude

Took 50 students with risk indicators: Low SAT, low income, first generation (200 points lower on SAT)Separate class, special interventions: Extra class hours, mentors…and high expectations.

Outcome: Same grades as large sectionHigher overall graduation rate 3 years later http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/18/magazine/who-gets-to-graduate.html

Success for At-Risk Students

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Then UT did a major intervention. All entering first year students did a 45 minute online activity, divided into four groups:

•Belonging•Mind-Set•Belonging and Mind-Set•Bland

After one semester…Advantaged students: no differenceDisadvantaged students: Moved from 81% on track to 86% on track

Who Gets to Graduate? Paul Tough. The New York Times Magazine. May 15, 2014.

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Prior Learning and CompetenciesPrior Learning Assessments: Council on Adult and Experiential Learning (CAEL)

New Competency-based Degrees:Southern New Hampshire UniversityNorthern Arizona UniversityWestern Governor’s University

Competency-based Hybrid Degrees

Badges: Khan Academy Certifications: Cisco Mozilla CLA Pearson

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Personalization

The capacity of software and systems to tailor course materials, learning processes, and approaches to the unique circumstances of individual learners.

• Individual characteristics Learning style Memory decay Pacing

• Obstacles or misunderstandings

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ideas?

What are some lessons?

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In a world of constant change, it seems to me that you must:

•Embrace change

•Challenge every practice

•Provide a safe environment for experimentation and failure

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Focus laser-like attention

on learning outcomes

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The challenge is enormous.

We have a confusion of

purposes, distorted reward

structures, limited success,

high costs, massive

inefficiencies, and

profound resistance to

change.

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This is not simply a difficult

moment for higher education:

it is the dawn of a very

different era. The institutions

that will succeed—indeed,

thrive—in this era will be

those that constantly

innovate.

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Cautionary Tale: The Eastman Kodak Company

Eastman Kodak invented the digital camera, held much of the intellectual capital (patents) for photography, and at one point owned 95% of the photography business in the world.

Ultimately, Eastman Kodak ceased to be a photography business, and failed, because it could not adapt to a new world.

Is This Something George Eastman Would Have Done? The Decline and Fall of Eastman Kodak Company. Paul Snyder. 2013.

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“Survival is optional.”

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Further Readings:

“Dungeons and Dragons: Prisoners of Our Own Beliefs;

Tyrannized by Mythical Beasts.” Gardner Institute: Academic

Affairs/Student Affairs Conference. Orlando, Florida. January 17,

2014.

“Challenge and Change.” EDUCAUSE Review.

(vol. 47, no. 5. September/ October 2012).

http://www.educause.edu/ero/article/challenge-and-change.

Medieval Models, Agrarian Calendars, and 21st Century

Imperatives. Teacher Scholar. Volume 2: Number 1 (Fall 2010).