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Fitchburg State UniversityGeorge L. Mehaffy2 September 2014

Constant Change:

The Challenging Context of The 21st Century

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In fifty years, if not much

sooner,

half of the roughly 4,500

colleges

and universities now operating

in the United States will have

ceased to exist. “The End of the University as We Know It.” Nathan Harden. The American Interest. January/February 2013. http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1352

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Technology Changes Everything

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Think about the impact of technology:

On journalism…

On photography

On the music business…

On the book publishing/selling business…The Long Tail. Chris Anderson (Hyperion, 2006)

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One of technology’s impact on business:store closings

Abercrombie and Fitch 180 By 2015Barnes and Noble 223 Over 9 yearsAeropostale 175 Next few yearsJC Penney 33 By mid-2014Radio Shack 1,100Just announcedStaples 225 By 2015Sears 500 Going ForwardFamily Dollar 370 2014

http://247wallst.com/special-report/2014/03/12/retailers-closing-the-most-stores/

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Robert Darnton

Four Great Information Ages

•Invention of Writing, Mesopotamia, 4,000 BC

•Moveable type

•Mass steam-powered presses, Industrial Age

•Internet, after 1993

Now You See It: Attention and the Future of Learning. Cathy N. Davidson, http://chancellor.ucdavis.edu/local_resources/pdfs/colloquium-11-12/ccvol2_cathy_davidson.pdf

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Eight Challenges to Public Higher Education

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Based on the trends since 1980, average state fiscal support for higher education will reach zero by 2059.State Funding: A Race to the Bottom. Thomas G. Mortensonhttp://www.acenet.edu/the-presidency/columns-and-features/Pages/state-funding-a-race-to-the-bottom.aspx

1. State Expenditures for Higher Education

(as a percentage of all expenditures: local, state, federal, personal)

1975: 60% 2010: 34%But huge variations in states: From 1980 to 2011-

Colorado 69 % declineMinnesota 56 % declineNorth Dakota 1 % increaseWyoming 3 % increase

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Sources: College Board, “Trends in College Pricing, 2008”; Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2009, www.bls.gov ; U.S. Census, Current Population Study-ASEC, 2008. From the Delta Project. Courtesy Jane Wellman

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Median inflation-adjusted 7%household income, 2006 – 2011

Tuition at public four year 18%Institutions, 2006 – 2011

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/01/opinion/my-valuable-cheap-college-degree.html?_r=0Public higher education – an historic

threshold: Students about to pay a higher percentage than the state. 2012 – net tuition 47% of public colleges’ costs.http://chronicle.com/article/StudentsStates-Near-a/137709/

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3. Business Model

Higher education is a set of cross-

subsidies: graduate education subsidized

by undergraduate; upper division

subsidized by lower division Jane Wellman, Delta

Project

http://www.deltacostproject.org/

We also have cross-subsidies by disciplines.

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Instructional Costs

Public-four Year Averages, 4-state cost study

(SUNY, Florida, Ohio, Illinois)

% of all credits taken

% of total spending on instruction

Avg weighted cost/credit

Lower Division 36% 23% 1.00

Upper Division 48% 44% 1.42

Grad 1 12% 23% 2.88

Grad 2 4% 9% 4.00

100% 100% 1.55

SHEEO, 2010 Courtesy Jane

Wellman

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NCES, BPS, undergraduates onlyCourtesy Jane Wellman

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Moody’s Inventor ServicesReport January 23, 2012

“Tuition levels are at a tipping point”

Higher education must innovate to remain viable

• Collaborations between colleges• More centralized management• More efficient use of facilities• Reduction in number of tenured faculty• Geographic and demographic

expansion of

course offerings

http://chronicle.com/article/article-

content/130434/

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In 2012:

•enrollment at public colleges was

essentially flat

•revenues grew less than 2 percent

•expenses increased more than 3 percent“…political pressure to limit tuition

increases and little expectation for big

improvements in state spending mean that

public colleges will have to continue to cut

costs for the foreseeable future.”

http://chronicle.com/blogs/bottomline/moodys-report-forecasts-a-gloomy-future-for-public-universities/

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4. Evidence of Success

2006 American Institutes for Research (AIR)

20% of U.S. college graduates only have basic quantitative literacy skills……unable to estimate if their car has enough gasoline to get to the next gas station.

More than 50% of students at 4-yr colleges lack the skills to perform complex literacy tasks, such as comparing credit card offers or summarizing the arguments of newspaper editorials.

http://www.air.org/news/index.cfm?fa=viewContent&content_id=445

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Academically AdriftR. Arum & J. Roksa

Study has indicated that 36% of students did not show any significant improvement in Collegiate Learning Assessment (CLA) performance over four years.

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Graduation Rate, 2010 Study

63.2% of 2003 students who began at a 4 -year college earned bachelor’s degree by 2009.

Beginning Postsecondary Survey, National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education.http://www.quickanded.com/2010/12/u-s-college-graduation-rate-stays-pretty-much-exactly-the-same.html

New Study 2012

Full time students: 75% in 6 yearsPart time students: 32% in 6 years

New National Tally of College Completion Tries to Count All Students. http://chronicle.com/article/New-National-Tally-of-College/135792/

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*** 60% (six out of ten) of Americans in 2010 said that colleges today … focused more on the bottom line than on the educational experience of students. http://www.highereducation.org/reports/squeeze_play_10/squeeze_play_10.pdf

*** In a recent survey, 80% said that at many colleges, education received is not worth the cost.Time Magazine, October 29, 2012, p. 37

*** Lumina survey in November/December 2012, three quarters (3/4) of respondents said that college is unaffordable.http://chronicle.com/article/Americans-Value-Higher/137023/

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http://chronicle.com/article/A-Boom-Time-for-Education/131229/

6. The Role of Venture Capitalists

New Start-Ups

UdacityUdemyUniversity NowCoursebookCoursekitCourseloadCourseRank

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7. Debt

DebtStudent loan debt outpaced credit card debt for the first time last year. More than $ one trillion dollars this year

Seven in 10 college seniors (71%) who graduated last year had student loan debt, with an average of $29,400 per borrower. http://projectonstudentdebt.org/state_by_state-data.php

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8. Inequality

1996 - 2012, public colleges and universities gave a declining portion of grants—as measured by both the number of grants and the dollar amounts—to students in the lowest quartile of family income.

The task of educating low-income students has increasingly fallen to community colleges and for-profit colleges.http://chronicle.com/article/Public-Colleges-Quest-for/141541/

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1 in 5 students from families with income over $ 250,000

1 in 10 students from families with income under $ 30,000

Percentage of 24 Year Olds with College Degrees

1970 2011

Top-income quartile: 40% 70%Bottom-income quartile 6% 10%

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/29/magazine/freebies-for-the-rich.html?_r=0

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“The higher education system is more and

more complicit as a passive agent in the

systematic reproduction of white racial

privilege across generations.  

Since 1995, 82 percent of new white

enrollments have gone to the 468 most

selective colleges, while 72 percent of new

Hispanic enrollment and 68 percent of new

African-American enrollment have gone to

the two-year open-access schools.”http://cew.georgetown.edu/separateandunequal/

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Are we vulnerable to disruption?

Christensen and Eyring argue that

disruption comes from cheaper and

simpler technologies that are initially of

lower quality. Over time, the simpler and

cheaper technology improves to a point

that it displaces the incumbent.

The Innovative University. Clayton Christensen and Henry J. Eyring. 2011

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The challenge is enormous.

We have a confusion of

purposes, distorted reward

structures, limited success, high

costs, massive inefficiencies,

and profound resistance to

change.

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Clay Shirky ---

“The biggest threat those of us

working in colleges and universities

face isn’t video lectures or online

tests. It’s the fact that we live in

institutions perfectly adapted to an

environment that no longer exists.”

http://www.shirky.com/weblog/2014/01/

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The greatest challenge to our

survival and success is our

inability and/or unwillingness to

change.

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http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1945/jan/25/house-of-commons-rebuilding

“The Chamber should be oblong and not

semi-circular; there should not be room for

all its Members; it should be designed to

preserve that intimacy of debate and

discussion, freedom and sense of urgency

and excitement…”

"We shape our buildings, and afterwards our buildings shape us.” House of Commons (meeting in the House of Lords), 28 October 1943.

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Dungeons and Dragons:

Prisoners of Our Own Beliefs;

Tyrannized by Mythical Beasts

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The Key Issue

How do we educate more

students, with greater

learning outcomes, at

lower costs?

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like?

(we’re only slightly more than 1/8 of the way into this new century, so let me describe some emerging characteristics of 21st century universities not the final product)

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Core Commitments

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“measured not by who we exclude, but rather by who we include and how they succeed”

Commitment to Access

“I don’t think the taxpayers of Florida voted to tax themselves to build a university that their children could not attend.”

John Hitt, President The University of Central Florida (UCF)

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A commitment to ACCESS: Multiple entry points

Make every effort to get students into the university:

•early college programs in high school•summer preparatory academies•testing in 11th grade and using 12th grade for remediation, etc.•community college pathways

And then make sure they succeed!

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And challenge old assumptions: who’s college ready?

A simple example: college mathematics

Are students not prepared?

Or are we the ones who are not ready?

Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching:Statways and Quantways

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University of Texas Chemistry 301 David Laude

Took 50 students with risk indicators: Low SAT, low income, first generation (200 points lower on SAT)Separate class, special interventions: Extra class hours, mentors…and high expectations.

Outcome: Same grades as large sectionHigher overall graduation rate 3 years later http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/18/magazine/who-gets-to-graduate.html

Success for At-Risk Students

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Two key ideas: Belonging and Ability

One 45 minute intervention for first year students resulted in an 86% completion rate (completing 12 hours of credit in first semester) for disadvantaged students (black, Latino, first generation)

…cutting in half the gap between advantaged students (90%) and disadvantaged students (82%)

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A set of studies by AASCU, Ed Trust, and the National Association of System Heads (NASH)

Commitment to Student Success

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Commitment to Learning Outcomes• New Tools (CLA, CAAP, and MAPP)

• New Organizations (NILOA, New

Leadership Alliance,

etc.)

• New Initiatives (Degree

Qualifications

Profile DQP)

• New Pressures (Academically

Adrift)

• New Expectations (business,

parents and

students, government,

accreditors)

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What are the key work attributes of the 21st century?

--- Solving unstructured

problems

--- Working with new

information

--- Carrying out non-routine

tasks

--- Complex communication--- Expert thinking

The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane. 2005

What Learning Outcomes?

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Comparing Teaching Effectiveness:Tenure and Non-Tenure Faculty

Ac a dem ic per form ance, 8 co horts of freshmen: 15,662 students, from fall 2001 to fall 2008.

Taking a course from non-tenure track fac ul ty mem bers:• In creases the like li hood that a stu dent will

take an oth er class in the sub ject• In creases the grade earned in that sub se

quent class • Produces the greatest gains for weakest

students

Northwestern University Study http://chronicle.com/article/Ad-juncts-Are-Bet-ter/141523/

Teaching As Valued As Research

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Commitment to beStewards of Place

For the 21st century university, a focus on

citizenship preparation, P-12 education, health

care, economic and community development,

and internationalization.

AASCU published a second and third

volume

in the Stewards of Place series in

August 2014

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Commitment to Reducing Costs

•Time to Completion

•120 hours for all majors

•Reducing bottlenecks in completion

•Charging out-of-state for 30+

credits beyond graduation

requirements

•Intrusive advising and early

remediation

•Flat rate for summer courses

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Commitment to the Right Incentives

What counts in the new university?

What really matters?

What are the metrics of success?

Who gets rewarded / recognized?

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Perverse Incentives

Cardiac surgeons turned away the sickest and most severely ill patients after adopting performance-based health report cards.

Health disparities widened among White, Black, and Hispanic patients after introducing physician report cards.http://www.learningoutcomesassessment.org/documents/HillmanViewpoint.pdf

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Our institutions were created as

teaching institutions, instead of

learning institutions. From Teaching to Learning - A New Paradigm for Undergraduate Education. Robert B. Barr and John Tagg. Change Magazine. Nov./.Dec., 1995.

Commitment to Rethinking

Status and Prestige

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Key Changes

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Changes in Academic Structures

• Multiple-institutional Courses

• Course (set of competencies)

• Credit Hour (based on seat time)

• Semester (unlike Facebook)

• Curriculum (interdisciplinary, community- linked)

• Degree (competency, certificates, etc.)

• Capstone Courses/Experiences

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Changing Administrative Practices

• Outsourcing

• Campus Consolidation and Expansion

• Strategic and Corporate Partnerships

• Contingent and Flexible Workforce

• Alterations in Benefits

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•Organization design for optimal student outcomes

•Multidisciplinary units

•Units organized around problems, not disciplines

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Changes in Physical Space

•Classrooms

•Library

•Bookstore

•Office Space

•Campus

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Changes in Student Services

One example: Coaching

Increase 2006 - 2011

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 PointsPercen

tLatino 65% 70% 72% 78% 84% 81% 16 25%First Generation 52% 69% 72% 75% 79% 81% 29 56%Low Income 69% 70% 74% 75% 79% 83% 14 20%Overall 65% 67% 71% 76% 78% 79% 14 22%

Source: CSUMB University Factbook, CSUMB Office of Institutional Assessment and Research

Percent First-Year Student Retention (2006 - 2011)

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Changing Faculty Work and Culture

Faculty will work in a networked world --- in a collaboration of faculty, other experts, and students across time and space. “As individuals we will have to

abandon that sense of ourselves as independent actors and agents.”

Checklist for Change. Robert Zemsky.http://chronicle.com/article/How-to-Build-a-Faculty-Culture/141887

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“Big Med.” Atul Gawande. The New Yorker. http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/08/13/120813fa_fact_gawande?currentPage=all

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In medical education, Darrell Kirch describes “An Emerging Culture for Health Care”

1.      Hierarchal to Collaborative

2.      Autonomous to Team-Based

3.      Competitive to Service-Based

4.      Individualistic to Mutually

Accountable

5.      Expert-centered to Patient-centered

“Higher Education and the Future of American Health Care” by Darrell G. Kirch, M.D., President and CEO, Association of American Medical Colleges (Washington, D.C., November 2, 2010). 

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Focus on Innovative Teaching

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Flipped Courses

The “flipped” course. You do homework by watching lectures. You go to class to work on problems together.

Khan Academy: 2,400 videos covering everything from arithmetic to physics, finance, and history. Khan lessons viewed by more than 4 million people a month.

http://www.khanacademy.org/

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Open Learning Initiative (OLI) Carnegie Mellon University http://oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/index.php

Team: content specialist cognitive scientist instructional designer graphic designer

OLI-Statistics students learned a full semester’s worth of material in half as much time and performed as well or better than students learning from traditional instruction over a full semester.http://oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/publications/71-effectiveness-statistics0

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Science Classes

The Carl Wieman Science Education Initiative

Three strategies:1. Reducing cognitive load2. Addressing beliefs3. Stimulating and guiding thinking

http://www.cwsei.ubc.ca/Experiment produced two times the learning outcomesDeslauriers, Schelew, and Wieman. Science. 13 May 2011, pp. 862 – 864.

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Math Emporiums

“Higher Education’s Silver Bullet” Carol Twigg http://www.changemag.org/Archives/Back%20Issues/2011/May-June%202011/math-emporium-full.html

3 Keys To Success:

1.Interactive computer software

2.Personalized on-demand assistance

3.Mandatory Student Participation

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Blended Courses

Blended (hybrid) courses combine fact-to-face classroom instruction with online learning and reduced classroom contact hours (reduced seat time)Charles Dziuban, Joel Hartman, Patsy Moskal. Blended Learning. EDUCAUSE. 2004 http://net.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/ERB0407.pdf

SRI Studyhttp://www2.ed.gov/rschstat/eval/tech/evidence-based-practices/finalreport.pdf

Ithaka Studyhttp://www.sr.ithaka.org/research-publications/interactive-learning-online-public-universities-evidence-randomized-trials

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Broad Course Re-Design George Kuh High Impact Practices

• First-year seminars and experiences• Common intellectual experiences• Learning communities• Writing-intensive courses• Collaborative assignments and projects• Undergraduate research• Diversity/global learning• Service learning, community-based learning• Internships • Capstone courses and projects

George Kuh. High-Impact Educational Practices: What They Are, Who Has Access to Them, and Why They Matter. AAC&U, 2008. Ensuring Quality & Taking High Impact Practices to Scale.AAC&U, 2013.

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Prior Learning and CompetenciesPrior Learning Assessments: Council on Adult and Experiential Learning (CAEL)

New Competency-based Degrees:Southern New Hampshire UniversityNorthern Arizona UniversityWestern Governor’s University

Competency-based Hybrid Degrees

Badges: Khan Academy Certifications: Cisco Mozilla CLA Pearson

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Personalization

The capacity of software and systems to tailor course materials, learning processes, and approaches to the unique circumstances of individual learners.

• Individual characteristics Learning style Memory decay Pacing

• Obstacles or misunderstandings

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So what are the take-aways

from this set of ideas?

What are some lessons for

Fitchburg State University?

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•Embrace change

•Challenge every practice

•Provide a safe environment for experimentation and failure

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moment for higher education: it is

the dawn of a very different era.

The institutions that will succeed—

indeed, thrive—in this era will be

those that constantly innovate.

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Further Readings:

“Dungeons and Dragons: Prisoners of Our Own Beliefs;

Tyrannized by Mythical Beasts.” Gardner Institute: Academic

Affairs/Student Affairs Conference. Orlando, Florida. January 17,

2014.

“Challenge and Change.” EDUCAUSE Review.

(vol. 47, no. 5. September/ October 2012).

http://www.educause.edu/ero/article/challenge-and-change.

Medieval Models, Agrarian Calendars, and 21st Century

Imperatives. Teacher Scholar. Volume 2: Number 1 (Fall 2010).