IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005

Recent NWP results from IMPROVERecent NWP results from IMPROVE

Greg Thompson,Roy Rasmussen, Bill Hall, Kyoko Ikeda (NCAR-RAL),Axel Seifert (Germany),Istvan Geresdi (Pecs, Hungary),

Efforts to improve the bulk microphysical parameterization in Efforts to improve the bulk microphysical parameterization in MM5, RUC, and WRF modelsMM5, RUC, and WRF models

(plus excursions into PBL parameterizations)(plus excursions into PBL parameterizations)

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005

List of MM5 case studies used as a baselineList of MM5 case studies used as a baseline

• 14 Feb 1990 (WISP)shallow, post-frontal, upslope cloud w/widespread FZDZ.

• 30 Jan 1998 (NASA-SLDRP)shallow stratoCu, primarily CLW w/slight FZDZ.

• 04 Feb 1998 (NASA-SLDRP)deep and dynamic snowstorm w/classic FZRA.

• 01 Feb 2001 (IMPROVE-1)deep PacNW wide cold-frontal rainband system.

• 28 Nov 2001 (IMPROVE-2)deep PacNW frontal system plus orographics.

• 13 Dec 2001 (IMPROVE-2)deep PacNW frontal system plus orographics.

Thompson, G. and B. C. Bernstein, 2005: Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation usingan improved bulk microphysics scheme. Part II: Case studies. Mon. Wea. Rev., in preparation.

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005

IMPROVE-1 case: 1-2 Feb 2001IMPROVE-1 case: 1-2 Feb 2001

major simulation flaw in timing of the front: MM5 is nearly 3 hours too fast with landfall (0z)

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005

1-2 Feb 20011-2 Feb 2001

moderate simulation flaw in stength of LLJ: MM5 is 5-10 m s-1 too weak around 900-800 mb

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005

Thermodynamics: 1-2 Feb 2001Thermodynamics: 1-2 Feb 2001

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005

Microphysics: 1-2 Feb 2001Microphysics: 1-2 Feb 2001

KHQM

Cloud ice (purple)

Snow (blue)

Rain (green)

Graupel (red)

Clo

ud w

ate

r (g

reen)

0.160.32

0.08

0.04

0.02

0.01 g/kg

melting

Cloud water (shaded)

sample microphysical variables plot

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005

IMPROVE-2 case: 13-14 Dec 2001IMPROVE-2 case: 13-14 Dec 2001

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005

Thermodynamics: 13-14 Dec 2001Thermodynamics: 13-14 Dec 2001

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005

Observed precipitation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4

Local Time (PST=UTC-8)

Precipitation (mm)

Jump-off Joe

Falls Creek

Corbett

Santiam Pass

12z13 Dec

12z14 Dec

13z 14z 15z 16z 17z 18z 19z 20z 21z 22z 23z 00z 01z 02z 03z 04z 05z 06z 07z 08z 09z 10z 11z

Potential corruption by snow

Santiam Pass bad data after 1500 local time

PARSL site (Sisters, OR)

KOTH - North Bend

KEUG - Eugene

KSLE - Salem

KCVO - Corvallis

Falls Creek

Jump-off Joe

Corbett and S.P.minimum 60 mm

13-14 Dec 2001: Observed precipitation13-14 Dec 2001: Observed precipitation

PARSL site (Sisters, OR)

KSLE - Salem

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005

Grid 3/4 (4/1.3 km spacing) precip accumGrid 3/4 (4/1.3 km spacing) precip accum

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005

Microphysics: 13-14 Dec 2001Microphysics: 13-14 Dec 2001

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005

Pre, inter, post-frontalPre, inter, post-frontal

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005

WMO Cloud Modeling WorkshopWMO Cloud Modeling WorkshopIstvan Geresdibin microphys

Bill HallR-T; 2-moment snow;S&B autoconv.

Jean-Pierre Chaboureau2-moment MesoNH

Axel Seifert2-moment WRF

Winfried Straub2-moment Seifert in KAMM2

• WMO International Cloud Modeling Workshop• Every 4 years• July 2004 in Hamburg, Germany• “Case #3” 13-14 Dec 2001 IMPROVE-2 case study• All modelers use provided datasets• Intercompare model results• Variety of bulk micro param and one bin model• http://www.rap.ucar.edu/~gthompsn/workshop2004/

Effect of changing autoconversion only (6-hr precip)

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005

Summary and future workSummary and future work• 2D simulations

•bulk scheme tuned to Geresdi’s bin/explicit model

• comparisons to other bulk models (Seifert, Hall, …)

• 3D case studies

• numerous cases from variety of field projects

• different precip formation mechanisms

• different geographic regions (continental/maritime)

• Future work

• verification data especially other IMPROVE cases

• other bulk species (aggregates) or 2-moments?

• WRF model simulations

• AIRS-2 cases

• other field projects?

IMPROVE data meeting, Seattle, WA, 13 July 2005

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