provocative talk #1 michael lissack october, 2005
TRANSCRIPT
Provocative Talk #1
Michael LissackOctober, 2005
Context:
All of Life is Not a Project
or How Business School thinking led to the Katrina Disaster in the US
Michael LissackOctober, 2005
Other Subtitles:
• What the US never learned from the river floods in Central Europe
• A complexity view of project management
• Fix your thinking before its too late
Context:
Business School Thinking:– Net Present Value– Consideration of
Tradeoffs– Creation and
Exploitation of Externalities– Use of Project
Management
Our main question:
Project Management has become a real buzzword in the modern corporate world.
It suggests cost efficiency, optimal solutions and immediate results.
Is it really such a panacea? When and why or why not?
Our Agenda:
1. Describe Katrina Situation
2. Compare New Orleans to Rhine/Danube
3. The Prelude
4. The Event
Agenda (2)
5. The immediate aftermath
6. Rita contrast
7. Lessons that could have been learned, but were not
8. General lessons
Katrina
Category 5 Hurricane
Near Direct Hit on New Orleans
Katrina
First forecast on August 24.
By August 26 the possibility of "unprecedented cataclysm" was already being considered. Some computer models were putting New Orleans right in the center of their track probabilities, and the chances of a direct hit were forecast at nearly 90%. The Governor of Louisiana declared a state of emergency for state agencies. On August 27, after Katrina crossed southern Florida and strengthened to Category 3, President George W. Bush declared a state of emergency in Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi two days before the hurricane made landfall. On August 28 the National Weather Service issued a bulletin predicting "devastating" damage rivaling the intensity of Hurricane Camille. New Orleans Mayor Nagin ordered an unprecedented mandatory evacuation of the city.
Unfortunately, the ordered mandatory evacuation was too late and just an order.
Katrina
Katrina
Katrina
New Orleans compared to Rhine/Danube/Central Europe
New Orleans compared to Rhine/Danube/Central EuropeRiver flooding is usually
predicted days in advanceRiver basin has a well
documented emergency planRiver basin residents have
lived through many variants of the Rhine/Danube floods
New Orleans compared to Rhine/Danube/Central EuropeStorm Surge was predicted
days in advanceNew Orleans had a well
documented emergency planNew Orleans had practiced this
very scenario in 2002 right after the Danube floods
New Orleans compared to Rhine/Danube/Central EuropeDifferences:• Mindset of residents • Lines of Authority • Mandatory evacuation order • Pre-disaster equipment preparation• Cooperation of mass media• Willingness of authorities to implement
plans and orders
New Orleans compared to Rhine/Danube/Central EuropePetőfi Sándor: A Tisza - részlet-
Mint az őrült, ki letépte láncát,Vágtatott a Tisza a rónán át,Zúgva, bőgve törte át a gátot,El akarta nyelni a világot!
New Orleans compared to Rhine/Danube/Central Europe
New Orleans compared to Rhine/Danube/Central Europe
Picture could be from either place
The Prelude
• Fragmentation• Externalities• Averages versus Long Tails• Words versus Actions• Abstractions versus Embodiment• Lack of reading• Project mentality
Fragmentation
• Authority is massively distributed amongst a variety of agencies
• No central body to declare a “disaster”
• No central repository of supplies or equipment
• Every man for himself
Externalities
• Can costs be imposed on another person, company, or level of government?
• Can boundaries be drawn so that costs go away from my little corner of the world?
• Can flood prevention be treated as a deferred maintenance item to pay for other goods and services?
Externalities
Businesses learn to exploit externalities
Averages versus Long Tails• We learn that statistics “tell”
us that we need only to plan for events within 3 standard deviations
• We do not learn (though we are often told) that these statistics only apply to “independent” items with no correlations
Averages versus Long Tails
Averages versus Long TailsThese “independent” items
however sometimes get correlated in “networks”
Within networks the degree of the autocorrelation present is an example of what is known as a “power law” distribution
Power laws have infinitely long tails
Averages versus Long Tails
Long Tails Matter
Averages versus Long TailsWhen you combine averages
thinking with net present value
Averages versus Long Tails
The result is often: deferred maintenance
Averages versus Long TailsWhich makes the accountants
happy – but at what cost?
Words versus Actions
Evacuation was discussed but not put into effect
Shelters were “designated” but not supplied nor staffed
The existence of plans was always mentioned, but the plans themselves were not followed
Words versus Actions
• “When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said in a rather scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”
• “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.”
• —Lewis Carroll
Abstractions versus Embodiment
• Evacuate• Shelter• Plan• Supply• Fortify• Protect• Warn
Lack of reading
• The history of planning and prediction of the “big one” in New Orleans was decades old
• The Mayor and the Governor had never read the emergency plan before August 24
• The media was never copied on the plans or appraised of their contents
Project mentality
• Assigned tasks were treated as “projects” to be carried out by project teams and judged from the perspective of project metrics
• Evacuation and shelter were just another project to get accomplished
Project Management as I understand It
What is a Project?– A project is a temporary effort
to create a unique product or service. Projects usually include constraints and risks regarding cost, schedule or performance outcome.
© Copyright 1997, James R. Chapman, All rights reserved.
Project Management as I understand It
What is Project Management?– Project management is a set
of principles, practices, and techniques applied to lead project teams and control project schedule, cost, and performance risks to result in delighted customers.
© Copyright 1997, James R. Chapman, All rights reserved.
Implications
– constraints and risks – focus on
• costs, • schedules• performance outcomes
Demands
Boundaries
Good Project Management
The project manager should: • Understand the project
requirements and ensure they are thoroughly and unambiguously documented;
• Prepare a project plan with achievable cost, schedule, and performance goals;
• Identify and manage project risks; • Ensure the project team is well-
organized, adequately staffed, and working well together;
Good Project Management (2)
• Manage project cost, schedule, requirements, and design baselines so they are traceable;
• Report meaningful metrics for cost, schedule, quality, and risk;
• Conduct regular status and design reviews;
• Ensure the adequacy of project documentation and testing;
• Maintain meaningful communications among project stakeholders; and
• Manage the project to attain the project goals and achieve stakeholder satisfaction.
© Copyright 1997, James R. Chapman, All rights reserved.
But… is Flood Reaction a Project?
The Event
The Event
Lack of Communication
A 2004 report by the U.S. Conference of Mayors found that more than 80 percent of cities said they did not have two-way radio communications with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Customs and other federal agencies or bureaus.
Lack of Clarity about Responsibility
Organization by Function not Region
Unwillingness to delegate authority
A Sad Example
The Scenario: A Barge needing safe anchorage during a forecast storm
The Project Response: Find a Safe Port, Secure the Cargo, Secure the Ship, Evacuate the Crew and establish Communications and Transport for after the Storm
A Sad Example (continued)
SAFE PORT
A Sad Example (continued)
Levee Breach
Unexpected Results
The Immediate Aftermath• Blame game• Law suits etc.• Selective attention
Blame game
Law suits etc.
Selective attention
Rita contrast
• More preparation
Rita contrast
• More command & control
Rita contrast
• Better Communications
Lessons that could have been learned, but were not• Situationalism• Cross Functionalism• Deployment of Media• Long tails• Communication• Chain of Command
Situationalism
Judgment of an act is a function of the state of the system at the time it is performed.
SituationalismSituations represent the most complete way of understanding our
experience of the surrounding world and the human qualities of the world They also endow experience with durability in relation to which other experiences can acquire meaning and can form our memory and history. The temporal dimension makes the process of differentiating and stabilizing situations more comprehensible. The deeper we move into history, the more situations have in common until we reach the level of myth, which is their ultimate comprehensible foundation. Myth is the dimension of culture that opens the way to the unity of our experience and to the unity of our world. The persistence of primary symbols contributes decisively to the formation of secondary symbols and finally to the formation of paradigmatic situations. Paradigmatic situations are similar in nature to institutions, deep structures, and archetypes.
• Dalibor Vesely
Cross Functionalism
What Good Is A Beautifully-Designed Building If It Has A Weak Foundation and Lousy Plumbing?
Deployment of Media
From
To
Long tails
Catastrophes are not to be evaluated using standard deviations and net present values
Long tail events will occur the question is how to deal with them
Communication
New systems
Chain of Command
General lessons
• Is it a Project?
• Does Context Matter?
• Does Embodiment Matter?
• Do Auto-Correlations Matter?
Complex Systems Thinking
• Inter-relatedness• Ambiguity• Emergence• Multiple Levels• Multiple Perspectives• Weak Signals
Complex Systems Thinking
We live in a time that is exemplified by fleeting messages, complex shifting meanings and mercurial contexts.
William Seaman
Our identities are constructed along narrative principles, and often constructed and reconstructed in the actual telling of stories about ourselves in daily life, in family groups, etc
Jerome Bruner
‘we tell our lives as narratives, but we experience them as hypertexts’.
Jay Lemke
The territory no longer precedes the map, nor does it survive it. It is never the less the map that proceeds the territory — precession of simulacra- that engenders the territory. Jean Baudrillard
Boundaries are a big issue
Complexity thinking worries about compartmentalization
Identity of actors, situations, and contexts is seldom stable and often time proceeds in multiple directions
Emergence and weak signals raise questions about metrics, baselines, and goals
Implications for Project Mgmt
– constraints and risks – focus on
• costs, • schedules• performance outcomes
Demands
Boundaries
Complexity raises doubts about
• traceable baselines• unambiguous requirements• defined plan• considered risks • identified team • meaningful metrics
So what does this mean for PM?
• unambiguous requirements -- maybe • defined plan – at risk of redefinition• considered risks – but more could arise• identified team – may be inadequate• traceable baselines – may need revision• meaningful metrics – about the wrong
things?• meaningful communications – more difficult• attain goals -- maybe
Complexity Thinking Asks:
Is It a Project?
So that we can avoid
Given a Hammer…
Making Project Management
Is it a Project?
• Test #1
Is it a Project?
• Test #2“To a River be a Canyon”
vs
Is it a Project?
Reaction to:Expectations are merely
premature resentments.
Not a Project
A Project
Complexity Thinking Asks:
• Does Context Matter?
Does Context Matter?
Outside the licensed domains of literature and jokes, the uncontrollable manifestations of parapraxes and dreams, the possibilities of meaning in a word are stringently limited by its context. The more that context bears down upon the word, the less the word will quiver with signification; until we reach a fully determining context, under whose pressure the word will lie inert, pinned down, proffering its single meaning... But at this point something else will have happened to it: it will have become completely redundant. The context will now allow only one meaning to be perceived in the gap which it occupies and anything — or nothing at all — will be interpreted as providing that meaning.
Derek Attridge
Does Context Matter?
Does Context Matter?
Complexity Thinking Asks:
• Does Embodiment Matter?
Does Embodiment Matter?
What we normally refer to as reality, believing that it is some-thing fixed and absolute, is always a result of our ability to experience, visualize, and articulate-in other words, to represent so as to participate in the world. …. There is a point where the interpretation and the way of making come so close to each other that they become fully reciprocal: what we know contributes to what we make, and what is already made contributes substantially to what it is possible to know.
Dalibor Vesely
Does Embodiment Matter?
Does Embodiment Matter?
Does Embodiment Matter?
Does Embodiment Matter?
Complexity Thinking Asks:
• Do Auto-Correlations Matter?
Do Auto Correlations Matter?
Do Auto Correlations Matter?
Why yes……..
BecauseALL of LIFE is NOT a
PROJECT