vision 2021 provocative forecasts.1

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Provocative Forecasts ofUncertainty and Opportunity

A 2021 Dialogue on Schools & thePrincipalship

Developed By

The Institute for Alternative Futures


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Provocative Forecasts of Uncertainty and Opportunity

Provocative forecasts are designed to help leaders question their assumptionsabout the future and explore the uncertainty and opportunity ahead for their organizations. The National Association of Elementary School Principalscommissioned the Institute for Alternative Futures to explore areas of uncertaintyand opportunity for schools and the principalship as part of its Vision 2021Project. IAF crafted the nine forecasts in this section to start a dialogue withschool principals, other educators, and the public about a preferred future.

IAF can see signals from the future in various interacting forces that could lead tothese forecasts. It is more important to see these forecasts as opportunities for leadership than as predictions about the future. In fact, as the dialogue thatfollows each provocative question illustrates, leaders have many opportunities toshape the outcomes toward a preferred future. NAESP leaders proposed someoptions for creating a preferred future. You are now invited into this dialogue todefine the possibilities for the future of schools and the principalship and todecide what you are ready to do to create a preferred future.

The nine provocative forecasts are:

1. Schools become the learning portals to a global workplace. This forecastexplores what schools must become to align with the new requirements of aglobal society.

2. Free market forces favor school choice over educational equity. Thisforecast probes social preferences for choice and the possibility for recommittingto educational equity.

3. Hyperlinked learning explores meaning through multimedia. This forecastexamines new capabilities to enrich and transform the learning experience.

4. Scientific knowledge brings new understanding to child development.This forecast anticipates scientific research that clarifies individual differencesand defines appropriate learning approaches for different students.

5. Holistic standards expand expectations for achieving student potential.This forecast explains how todays proficiency standards will necessarily morphinto standards that support educating the whole child.

6. Networks of learning innovation experiment with new learning strategiesfor children. This forecast anticipates networks of research and developmentthat link schools to centers of innovation in collaborating research and knowledgesharing.


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7. Surveillance society links schoolhouses into electronic safety network.This forecast projects todays concerns about school safety into a future wheresurveillance is ubiquitous and welcome.

8. Societys mounting debts compromise future investments in education.

This forecast takes a hard look at the limitations schools face and asks what itwould take to create a tipping point where education is a priority.

9. Principals set the standard for chief learning officers. This forecastacknowledges that principals will be using continuous learning processes toengage students, teachers, parents and the community in achieving learningoutcomes for students.

1. Schools Become the Learning Portals to a Global Workplace

Schools will shift from learning environments producing workers suited toan industrial era to integrated settings producing lifelong learners for theglobal workplace. State of the art school design in 2021 will integratestudents into a work world that relies on project-based learning, teambuilding, and technologies that remove the barriers between schools andcompanies, organizations and communities around the globe.

Interacting Forces of Change Global collaboration and competition is open to individuals andcompanies. 1 The knowledge economy needs workers who can think critically, work

collaboratively and adapt and innovate in a changing world. Education is undergoing intensive globalization as schools all over the

world respond to similar ideas about what and how students shouldlearn. 2

Provocative Questions for the Vision 2021 Dialogue

What is the work world our schools must prepare students to enter? Thetwin objectives of schooling have been to create a competent national workforceand a well functioning society. The need for a large national industrial workforcegave rise to schools in which students mimic the pattern of expected

1 Friedman, TL. (2005) The World Is Flat. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York.2 Baker, DP. and LeTendre, GK. (2005) National Differences, Global Similarities: World Cultureand the Future of Schooling. Stanford University Press, Stanford, CA.


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employment, sitting patiently through regimented lessons. 3 However, the needsof the economy have shifted, creating a higher demand for a more multi-facetedworkforce.

Todays kindergartener will graduate into a very different workforce. She will

compete not only with her classmates, but with competitors around the globe.She can expect to change careers numerous times throughout her life and will,above all, require the capacity to educate herself long after her initial educationhas ended. To give her an edge, schools must prepare her to be both adaptiveand flexible. Futurist Alvin Toffler noted that "the illiterate of the twenty-firstcentury will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn,unlearn, and relearn. 4

Employers asked to rank what they value most for the 21 st century workforce puta premium on such applied skills as professionalism/work ethic, teamwork/collaboration, and oral communications. Creativity and innovation are rising in

importance as is knowledge of foreign language.5

The Council onCompetitiveness warns companies to embrace innovation as a core businessvalue and advises that innovation is inherently multidisciplinary in nature andthe realms of science, politics, culture, business, health care and education arebecoming increasingly intertwined. 6

A learning environment that connects education and economic success wouldsupport the freedom to play, experiment, and enter into dialogue. It wouldassume shared knowledge and collegial relationships. 7 This intellectualexploration and these collegial relationships can now extend well beyond thetraditional boundaries of classrooms and companies. It is not a far stretch toimagine adults gaining fresh perspectives from their dialogues with children andchildren accelerating their learning through real and virtual connections to thetasks working adults perform.

How should schools operate when integrating across boundaries is simplyexpected? Globalization observer Thomas Friedman describes the globaleconomy as driving toward integration. The Internet facilitates sourcing work tothe best price, best quality, from the best place with a great amount of sharing of practices and knowledge. He predicts America will do fine in a flat world with

3 Hanna, D. (1998). Higher Education in an Era of Digital Competition: Emerging Organizational

Models. Journal of Asynchronous Learning Networks .4 Toffler, A. (1984) The Third Wave.5 Employers Perspectives on the Basic Knowledge and Applied Skills of New Entrants to the 21stCentury U.S. WorkforceRetrieved 12/5/2006 at: http://www.21stcenturyskills.org/documents/FINAL_REPORT_PDF9-29-06.pdf 6 Innovate America: Thriving in a World of Challenge and Change, July 2004. National InnovationInitiative, Council on Competitiveness.7 Zuboff, S. (1989) In The Age of the Smart Machine: The Future of Work and Power. BasicBooks.


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free tradeprovided it continues to churn out knowledge workers who are able toproduce idea-based goods that can be sold globally and who are able to fill theknowledge jobs that will be created as we not only expand the global economybut connect all the knowledge pools in the world. There may be a limit to thenumber of good factory jobs in the world, but there is no limit to the number of

idea-generated jobs in the world.8

If knowledge sharing is so critical to a healthy global economy, then the task of connecting students everywhere cannot begin too early. Just as the bestcompanies are excelling at collaborating within and between companies, the bestschools will find inspiration for their students in collaborating with studentsaround the world. There are already scattered and exciting examples of schoolsusing the internet to connect students across international and culturalboundaries.

Schools all over the world appear to run in much the same way. Educational

researchers David P. Baker and Gerard K. LeTendre examined nationaldifferences in mathematics and science at the elementary and secondary leveland discovered many global similarities. If current trends continue, we shouldexpect to see continued standardization of core teaching practices withinacademic subjects around the world. Baker and Gerard continue to explain thatcross-national studies of schooling are standardizing measures of educationalachievement across countries. The globalization of curricula and itsimplementation in classrooms will exert a soft but steady pull on nations toward aworld norm, to the point where little variation in curricula exists across nations. 9

What is the greatest contribution schools can make to a well functioningsociety in the next 15 years? Schools must produce responsible globalcitizens who can address world problems to sustain life on the planet. Our children will live in a world where population will grow quickly from 6.6 billion tonearly 8 billion by 2021. The population growth will bring complex problems thatour children will have to solve to improve life on earth in the 21 st century.

Futurist Marsha Rhea writes about schools as the logical laboratory for learningtogether how to face challenges at a scale and complexity the world has never seen before. We live in a time of split-second opportunities and threats. Wecould just as easily fall into a feared future as stay on track for an expectedfuture. For a preferred future, we need to do much better than simply stay in stepwith rapid technological and evolutionary advances. Anticipatory learning givesus the learning and skills to shape our future in complex and interdependenttimes. 10

8 Friedman, TL (2005). The World Is Flat. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York.9 Baker, D. and LeTendre, GK. (2005) Op. cit.10 Rhea, M. (2005) Anticipate the World You Want: Learning for Alternative Futures. ScarecrowEducation, Lanham, MD.


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This anticipatory learning requires both objective and subjective learning.Schools will now need to shape students into global citizens. It is particularlyurgent in todays turbulent times that people learn to honor different cultures,religions, and world views. With an increasingly diverse immigrant population,American schools have a tremendous opportunity to start close to home building

these bridges of understanding. With increased immigration, travel andinexpensive internet communications, many students already have circles of friends that span the globe.

Options for a Preferred Future for Schools & the Principalship1. Principals can erase school walls by networking with others who shape

the lives of their students outside of school and with principals and other educators around the world.

2. American elementary schools can connect with peer institutions acrossthe world through project-based learning on common issues such as theenvironment, economy, and global citizenship.

2. Free Market Forces Favor School Choice over Educational Equity

For the first decade of the 21 st century, school choice proves to be apopular public policy. Baby Boomers trust free market approaches todeliver results and as consumers they like having it their way in themarketplace. People with the means and smarts secure the best for their children. However, by 2021 the nations growing immigrant and minoritypopulation has made attacking this two-tier system a priority to restore the

American dream of equal opportunity through education.

Interacting Forces of Change School failures over the past decade strengthen the school choice

movement. Baby Boomers, the Me Generation, dominate public policy with their

strong ideologies which results in political polarization. The birth rate of immigrants and minorities will mean a growing number

of children and parents will need more services from schools. Communities compete to create economic gains in quality of life by

offering better schools to employers and citizens. The Millennial Generation and Generation X, who are both more

accepting of diversity, support the redistribution of funds tounderperforming schools in minority communities.


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Can schools modify or reverse the trend of a growing gap between theprospects for the poor and the rich? Race and wealth are still the bestpredictors of school achievement. As a recent New York Times Magazine articlefound, public schools with mostly well-off white students had a 1 in 4 chance of performing well on tests while schools with mostly poor minority students had a 1in 300 chance. Middle class parents use more words of encouragement andsocialize their children to act and think in the ways that schools value. Someschools, especially well regarded charter schools, have found intensive ways toovercome these life conditions. But the author compared the level of effortrequired to achieve the proficiency goal set by the No Child Left Behind Act asakin to a national undertaking on the order of a moon landing without thefunding to achieve it. 11

Universal preschool education may be the investment with the highest potential

for closing the gap. Public pre-kindergarten is now available to at least somegroups of children in 40 states. Preschool programs enhance school readinessand pay off in dollars saved as children reach adulthood. The most effectivepreschool education would take a whole child approach that offerscomprehensive services. 12

Extending the time students spend in school through extended days, after schoolprograms and extended school years also could help. Social workers based inschools can champion the social services students need. Offering incentives toattract the best teachers to challenging schools also would make a difference.

Will parents still find ways to use education to transmit social advantage totheir children? There is a powerful reason behind why parents almosteverywhere want the very best education for their children. In their global study of mass schooling, David P. Baker and Gerald K. LeTendre found the myth of meritocratic production of human capital and adult status has won out over familystatus, estates, and even extreme class reproduction. In Western culture, theseideals are implemented with varying effect in public mass schooling, but it isschooling that has come to be the institution identified with allocation of future lifechances. These researchers forecast that families of the future will likely spendmore resources and time on education for their children, particularly resourcesaimed at enhancing the childs cognitive achievement as much as possible.

Continued inequality in education will be generated by differences in familiesresources, access to political power, and knowledge. 13

11 Tough, P. (2006, Nov. 26) What Will It Really Take to Close the Education Gap. The New York Times Magazine.12 Zigler, E., Gilliam, WS and Jones, SM. (2006) A Vision for Universal Preschool Education. JY:Cambridge University Press.13 Baker, DP. and LeTendre, GK. (2005) Op cit.


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Affluent and middle class parents are willing to invest in computers, tutoring,academic camps and enrichment opportunities. Parents are prepping their children from birth to compete for the top spots in elite schools.

Do the majority of elementary and middle school principals have what itwill take to secure the resources their schools need? If free marketdynamics and school choice prevail, principals will have the job of attractingstudents and teachers to create a strong, marketable brand. Even elite privateschools fail without good leaders. In public school districts where parents canexercise their preferences for school assignment, principals find they are theleaders in marketing their schools attributes.

If immigrant and minority parents do decide to organize their growing numbersinto a political force for education, principals can be key allies in organizing at thecommunity, state and federal level. Many already have the essential relationships

with parents and the community. All politics are local and nothing is moreeffective in persuading national politicians to act than their determinedconstituents.

Options for a Preferred Future for Schools & the Principalship1. All schools can position themselves as schools of choice by offering

distinctive school brands designed to serve specialized needs andinterests.

2. Principals can become the recognizable face of their school, activelypromoting its brand in the community and highlighting the services it offersto students.

3. Hyperlinked Learning Explores Meaning throughMultimedia

Teachers and students in 2021 are making sense of an increasinglycomplex world using multimedia and learning technologies that honor multiple forms of intelligence and different ways of knowing. Learners arefinding these hyperlinked experiences provide the context that connectsfacts and skills into understanding. As these learning technologies enablemore collaborative and accelerated learning, they are redefining the

boundaries of place, curriculum, and grade.

Interacting Forces of Change Rapidly improving online learning and learning technologies are

expanding the options for schooling. The growing amount of information available today is pushing demand

for knowledge technologies, such as intelligent agents, to improvelearning and decision making.


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Visual forms of learning improve as video and simulations proliferate. The World Wide Web is gaining greater power and breadth to link and

layer more context around information.

Provocative Questions for the Vision 2021 DialogueWill virtual schools become a serious competitor to place-based schools?Thousands of students are regularly participating in learning environmentsbeyond traditional schools. Students are using social networking to formcommunities around their interests and talents. Photo and music editingsoftware enable students to develop technical, artistic and musical skills whilemodeling and simulation software will enable students to conduct virtual scienceexperiments to develop and test hypotheses. Many of these programs will bedeveloped as games where student learning and fun are combined. Theseprograms will expand the range of electives offered to students and will enable

new options for education that appeal to the estimated 30 percent of audio/visuallearners who acquire knowledge best through reading, visual instruction andmanipulating visual media.

If used correctly, these new technology options will provide greater flexibility inthe educational process and create new ways to deliver content. The greater use of games, models and simulations will reduce the need for dedicatedclassrooms for subjects such as art, music and science classes. These lessonswill also be integrated with the outside environment and community through thecombination of textual learning and wireless education. 14

Schools can play a role in developing media literacy. Sherry Turkle, an expert inthe social impact of information technology, has called for readership skills for theculture of simulation. A central project for higher education during the next 10years should be creating programs in information-technology literacy, with thegoal of teaching students to interrogate simulations in much the same spirit,challenging their built-in assumptions. 15 As these learning technologies becomepervasive, teaching these skills in college will be too late and largely remedial.Students will need to learn to tell stories through images, graphics, color, sound,music and dance. 16

As Will Richardson, a blogger on education observes, These technologies scare

us, challenge us, and the friction between the old, closed-door classrooms and 14 Synder, DP. (2004, Jan.) A Look at the Future: Is Technology the Answer to Education's long-term Staffing Problems? Retrieved 10/02/2006 athttp://www.asbj.com/2004/01/0104technologyfocus.html15 Turkle, S. (2004, Jan. 30 th) How Computers Change the Way We Think. The Chronicle of Higher Education , January 30, 2004.16 Shlain, L.(2006, Oct. 5 th) Visually Speaking. Edutopia . Retrieved athttp://www.edutopia.org/magazine/ed1article.php?id=Art_1361&issue=oct_05


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this new, open, transparent world of learning is becoming more and moreapparent. 17 When the students know more about using these technologies thanthe teachers, resistance to widespread adoption is natural. This change willaccelerate when teachers and principals recognize it is OK to co-evolve thisexpertise with their students. It will mean opening up schools to such learning

technologies as wikis, blogs, virtual worlds, games and simulations and beingwilling to follow students into these alternative environments.

What disparity reducing strategies will prove most effective in reducing thehave-have not gap around technology? Whenever new technologies becomeavailable, whether in education, healthcare, or daily life, the rich get access wellbefore the poor. Educators are very concerned about the digital divide and their willingness to champion equity will foster decisions that help close the gap.

Improvements in personal computing will make it possible for many schooldistricts to offer low cost personal computers to students within the next five to

ten years. These laptops will be very inexpensive (under $250) fully capablemachines with wireless broadband access. MIT is currently working on $100laptops for school children in the developing world and many of the technologiesthey developed will likely be imitated by computer companies to create affordablelaptops for the large school market in the United States. 18

Wireless connectivity will soon extend beyond wireless hotspots like coffeeshops, offices and schools to entire communities. Some cities, such asPhiladelphia, are moving to provide wireless service as a municipal utility.Students will have free access to wireless throughout the city. 19 WiMaxtechnology, which enables high speed internet over large areas, will extend thebenefits of wireless to rural as well as urban communities.

Will learning technologies help humans reach a higher level of collectiveintelligence? These technologies make it easy to connect diverse individualsinto a global mind to learn faster and deeper to meet the demands of a complexand fast-changing world. The Web gives people access to the collectiveintelligence of people around the globe. But it is more than access to staticresources. People are joining in collaborative learning communities to create newknowledge drawn from different disciplines, cultures and generations.

17

Richardson, W. (2006, Oct.) The New Face of Learning. What Happens to Time-WornConcepts of Classrooms and Teaching When We Can Now Go Online and Learn Anything,Anywhere, Anytime. Edutopia , October.18 Fahrenthold, DA (2005, November 16) MIT Is Crafting Cheap -- But Invaluable Laptops. TheWashington Post . Retrieved 10/10/2006 at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/15/AR2005111501546.html19 Staff Writer. (2004 Sept. 8 th.) Wireless Philadelphia to Provide Free Internet, Access toEducation. IP Links . Retrieved 9/28/2006 athttp://www.imakenews.com/innovationphiladelphia/e_article000300850.cfm?x=b3vn5LM,b1NyrLJC


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Collective intelligence respects multiple forms of intelligence. Howard Gardner, aleading educator, has defined these as linguistic, logical-mathematical, musical,spatial, bodily-kinesthetic, naturalist (making consequential discriminations in thenatural world), interpersonal, intrapersonal, and existential (posing and ponderingthe big questions). 20 High performance teams are learning that to thrive in an

increasingly diverse society they need to tap into these different ways of knowing.

Options for a Preferred Future for Schools & the Principalship1. Principals can help break down the generational divide on accepting new

technologies in schools. This may mean getting comfortable with learningfrom kids who are already using the technology.

2. Schools may find they can move to new staff structures, such as learningcoordinators or proctors.

4. Scientific Knowledge Brings New Understanding toChild Development

Scientific knowledge from neuroscience, psychology and biology willconfirm how brain function, biological factors and life conditionscontribute to intellectual capabilities. Students will use assistivetechnologies to gain access to a wider range of personal capabilities.Educators will use this new knowledge and technologies to customizedevelopmental pathways for students that redefine and re-sequenceelementary and middle school pedagogy.

Interacting Forces of Change Optical imaging will allow researchers to study brain function in free

environments such as schools. Knowledge about different forms of intelligence and developmental

patterns improves the ability to differentiate and nurture mentalabilities.

The NCLB Act contains 111 references to scientifically basedresearch and promises billions of dollars to support such research. 21

Current personal digital assistants are evolving into more powerfultools for memorizing, analyzing and synthesizing information.

Development will be distinguished from chronological age alongmultiple lines, e.g., cognitive, physical and moral.

20 Gardner, H. (2004) Changing Minds: The Art and Science of Changing Our Own and Other Peoples Minds. Harvard Business School Press.21 Feuer, MJ, Towne, L and Shavelson, R.J. (2002). Scientific Culture and Educational Research.Educational Researcher , 31 (8): 414.


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How many learning styles and developmental stages will we recognize andaccommodate in 2021? Over the next 14 years, the findings of science will bemore integrated into the pedagogy of elementary and middle schools. Thisintegration will be based on new learning on brain function and its relation tolearning development and learning disabilities. The No Child Left Behind (NCLB)Act will accelerate this trend with its mandate and funding to support educationand programs based on scientific research evidence. Principals and teachers willlook to science for proven strategies to improve outcomes as educationaccountability continues to take hold in schools.

Advances in imaging science and genomics will deepen and extend our understanding of brain function and development. Previously, most brainimaging was considered either too invasive for children or required children to bestationary. Optical imaging, a new technology, enables cognitive neuroscientists

to non-invasively see neural activity and brain function in a much lessconstrained environment than previous technologies. This ability will dramaticallyexpand knowledge of brain development and enable researchers to explore whattypes of environments and experiences encourage brain development.

The models of learning styles are likely to improve as knowledge of the brainimproves. Cognitive and learning styles have been linked to differences in brainfunction. The application of learning styles has been continuously refined over the last decade to focus on smaller subgroups of learners. The application of brain research is likely to continue this process by linking learning to smaller subgroups based on brain function. It may become possible to individually

characterize approaches to learning based on tests of brain function.

Systems biology, the study of the system of interactions that is now focused atthe cellular level, is developing as a new way to understand cellular function inthe brain. Molecular biology is also making tremendous advances inunderstanding the function of other molecules in the cell such as proteins, sugarsand metabolites. These new advances in systems and molecular biology willimprove our knowledge of the genetic basis of learning disabilities and disorders.These advances combined with a better understanding of how the externalenvironment influences brain development will create new approaches toaddress learning disabilities and disorders. 22

Scientific research will also expand our knowledge of critical learning periods inchild development. Case studies of neglected children showed a link betweenearly childhood experience and the development of fine motor skills, speech and

22 For more information on future advances in imaging, genomics, proteomics, systems biologyand other topics please see IAFs report The 2029 Project: Creating an Ethical Future for Biomedical R&D at http://www.altfutures.com/2029.asp .


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other skills. 23 These studies showed a great deal about the environmentalconditions that can cause danger to brain development and subsequent learning,but reveal very little about how to optimize or accelerate learning. 24 However,researchers have used these and other observational studies of children toidentify critical learning periods for key skills such as language development,

second language acquisition, and learning a musical instrument, among other learning activities. Advances in molecular and brain imaging will transform thisarea of education research by linking critical learning periods to molecular andfunctional changes in the brain. It might also be possible in the future to identifyindividual variations in critical learning periods.

What will be the new assistive technologies for learning? In the futureeducators will remember the debates about allowing calculators in classrooms asquite quaint. The next generation of cognitive assistive technologies will bememorizers, analyzers and synthesizers.

Memorizers will evolve from todays personal digital assistants and mobilephones that keep track of important personal information. These portabledevices will link personal information with school databases. This will providestudents with automated alerts for homework, extracurricular activities and other school events. Parents will also have their memorizers linked to schooldatabases to pre-arrange student absences as well as monitor student grades,attendance and other important information.

Students who can quickly access resources like Wikipedia and other knowledgeresources have little need to memorize data. Analyzers, perhaps incorporatedinto the same portable device, will use intelligent agents that rely on algorithmsand probability to draw meaning from data. This will allow teachers and parentsto monitor trends in school performance and intervene early to prevent academicproblems. Synthesizers could evolve out of simulations that present knowledgeas experience and social networking that draws knowledge from the experiencesof an individuals network. This ability will be an important part of arrangingmentorships, internships and other outside learning opportunities for students.

Over the next 14 years, language translation devices will improve significantly.Such assistive technologies will extend the capabilities of all students in novelways. Text readers will be able to take printed text into an auditory form for students who are sight-impaired or dyslexic. Voice recognition software will beable to transfer the spoken word into text for those who cannot hear. Instructionin reading, writing and language will be enhanced when students can move inand out of written and audio forms with greater ease.

23 MacNaughton, G. (2004) The Politics of Logic in Early Childhood Research: A Case of theBrain, Hard Facts, Trees and Rhizomes. The Australian Educational Researcher , 31 (3): 87-104.24 Institute of Medicine (2000) From Neurons to Neighborhoods: The Science of Early ChildhoodDevelopment. National Academies Press. Retrieved 11/1/06 athttp://newton.nap.edu/books/0309069882/html


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In the future people will be able to decide whether they want to take advantage of other technologies to enhance human potential. Prosthetic and robotic deviceswill be used to provide greater mobility to able-bodied people Parents will takeadvantage of pharmaceuticals to enhance their childrens mental and physical

performance beyond what todays drugs can offer. In the next 15 years, scientificand technological advances will stretch the limits of individual achievement inexciting and controversial ways.

Will this scientific knowledge about individual potential be used wisely andethically? Increasing knowledge shines a bright light on discriminatorypractices. For example, researchers have identified more than 100 differencesbetween the brains of boys and girls that predispose them to different types of learning. 25

Worldwide, boys have lower grades, are more likely to be labeled as learning

disabled,26

suffer more discipline problems, and are more likely to have learningand behavior disorders than girls. 27 Boys now make up two-thirds of students inspecial education. 28 Teachers and parents that dont understand thesedifferences can often misdiagnosis normal boys with learning disabilities or behavioral problems. These disparities have created a professional dilemma for educators as they try to untangle the scientific and cultural components of whatmany researches have described as the boy crisis in education.

The ethical and professional challenges caused by the boy crisis will be smallcompared to future ethical challenges poised by better knowledge of the brain.Better diagnostic capability will highlight the functional underpinnings of bothindividual differences and deficiencies in learning. It will also highlight theimportance of larger societal issues in education. These include such things asearly learning experiences and family and community support. Educators willhave the challenge of dealing with these intertwined issues and determining their duty to address the individual differences in learning in their curriculum.

Options for a Preferred Future for Schools & the Principalship1. Principals will have access to new research on the learning of different

student subgroups. Schools will need to be careful to not track or limitchildren when using this research in their curriculum.

2. Schools can use scientific research to recognize and develop the human

potential of each child.

25 King, K and Gurian, M. (2006) With Boys in Mind/Teaching to the Minds of Boys. EducationalLeadership.26 Perkins-Gough, D. (2006). Do We Really Have a Boy Crisis? Educational Leadership.27 Gurian, M., & Stevens, K. (2005) The minds of boys: Saving our sons from falling behind inschool and life. San Francisco: JosseyBass.28 Perkins-Gough, D. (2006) Do We Really Have a Boy Crisis? Educational Leadership.


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5. Holistic Standards Expand Expectations for Achieving Student Potential

The first No Child Left Behind (NCLB) law mandated in 2002 that schools

be responsible for the success of every student under an important butnarrow definition of achievement. In subsequent reauthorizations,educators and public officials have widened the scope to hold schoolsaccountable for educating the whole child. Standards in effect in 2021require individualized learning and hold schools accountable for meetingholistic indicators of student potential.

Interacting Forces of Change The public continues to demand accountability and transparency for

school performance. Vast data fields will provide exquisitely tailored comparative groups for

standards appropriate to different individuals. Some states are beginning to encourage high school students to

develop learning plans related to future careers.


What will be the future of assessment? Today most standards andachievement tests measure school and student performance in selected gradesand only once or twice a year. In the future, schools will use continuous testingwhich provides immediate feedback to tailor classroom and individual instruction.Children will relate to these tests as they do to the continuous feedback they getfrom games.

The NCLB standards will give way to individualized measures. More data will becollected through continuous testing, feedback from simulations and games, andanalysis of classroom video. This data will help shift from the massifiedpopulation based view of students on a bell shaped curve to subpopulationbased views that create a variety of curves based upon different dimensions thatcan be measured. Students will be compared with appropriate subpopulationsusing data on matched cohorts for any given measure. For example, languageproficiency would have a different cohort for native-born speakers than for immigrants, and of course students with disabilities would be measured withstudents with similar disabilities.

Schools also will be expected to meet other key indicators to show that they aremeeting the needs of the whole child. Pre-kindergarten students will be evaluatedagainst readiness indicators. After school programs will be evaluated for their quality and effectiveness in enriching student learning. Students will be evaluatedagainst measures of physical and mental health. Those that are failing will bereferred to an array of health and social services to get back on track. These


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changes will be an inevitable consequence of discovering what it truly does taketo bring all students to a basic proficiency level.

Will all students have individualized learning plans? For some timeeducators have recommended extending the idea of individual learning plans

used with special needs students to all students. Schools could never handle thisidea if it is implemented in the same bureaucratic and often contentious manner seen with special needs children. The ability to do continuous assessment of student performance will enable educators to move beyond individualizedlearning plans to a more adaptive approach to individualized learning.

A better phrase for the future of individualized learning could be called adynamic learning system. Rather than a plan, a system for individualizedlearning would incorporate multiple sources of information to set both a learningstrategy and evaluate its effectiveness. The system would use continuousfeedback from student assessments. Some of these assessments and changes

would be automated based on assessment tools built into new e-learningtechnologies such as games and simulations.

The use of a dynamic learning system could have a profound impact on studentlearning. Students could move through a learning continuum at their own rate of speed. Multi-age instruction would have to become the norm and even veryyoung students would need different learning teams. This will not seem asdisruptive for children who are becoming increasingly accustomed to a fast-paced and stimulating culture. Older elementary school students will even beencouraged to understand and participate in these assignment decisions.

Adaptive assignment would lead to more systematic matching of students withteachers to create the most effective combinations for learning. Students may bematched to teachers who are adept at educating cohorts with their specificprofile. Schools will get far more effective at matching these student-teacher dyads, triads or even constellations of students and teachers. Studentassignment will move from art to informed decision making as every aspect of student learning and well being is better understood and continuously tracked.

Will schools become surrogate parents with responsibility from birth toadulthood? By 2021, educators and policy makers will recognize the need for holistic standards to develop human capital. While schools are the mostimportant public institution involved in developing human capital, other community and political interests will be threatened if schools take on the level of responsibility required to meet multiple indicators of human learning and wellbeing. Once medical and social science clearly establish the role that lifeconditions play in academic success, schools may seek to find ways to intervenein parenting from birth.


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Studies already show that the children of professional parents hear more wordsof encouragement and a richer vocabulary than do children of welfare parents,and middle class parents are more likely to socialize their children in ways thatschool cultures reward. 29 A students health and mental capacity are influencedby a variety of factors from nutrition to toxins in the environment to the physical

activity of parents. To improve student performance schools may need to crosslines that have historically defined family roles as off limits.

If schools do not become surrogate parents, they certainly will be far moreeffective as an early warning system that interventions are needed. They willconnect families to parenting classes and coach parents in how to effectivelyteam with children and their teachers in learning. For some parents, this may wellmean helping close the gap in their own schooling. Elementary schools willbecome a major catalyst to lifelong learning for a generation that grew up in anera when society could afford to overlook learning disparities.

As global education researchers David Baker and Gerald LeTendre observed, Apowerful modern ideology is that society itself is a project, and one of thefundamental parts of the project is to use education to achieve society. 30 Theysee this ideology driving continuous reform across many nations. As nationswork to keep pace with one another in a global community, they will gravitatemore toward public policies that make social welfare a priority.

Options for a Preferred Future for Schools & the Principalship1. Principals can advocate for a renaissance in education that goes beyond

test scores to honoring different ways of being human.2. Schools can use new diagnostic technologies, such as functional MRIs, to

identify student learning needs early.

6. Networks of Learning Innovation Experiment withNew Learning Strategies for Children

Networks of learning innovation research find new ways to accelerate anddeepen student learning. These 2021 networks emerged from a fertileperiod of experimentation and uneven success in charter, magnet, home,university lab and virtual schools. They rigorously evaluate their practices

and use learning technologies to collaborate with and transfer knowledgeinto the wider education community.

29 Tough, Paul. What Will It Really Take to Close the Education Gap. The New York TimesMagazine, November 26, 2006.30 Baker, DP. and LeTendre, GK. (2005) Op. cit.


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Interacting Forces of Change Some charter schools have identified strategies that work for failing

students and they are attracting sufficient public and private support tocontinue innovating.

Knowledge businesses are attracted to communities with schools thatcan sustain excellence.

Knowledge workers are linking to research and innovation networksand using intelligent agents to speed knowledge transfer.


How will principals know which innovations will actually work? A keymantra in industries closely involved in innovation is fail early and fail often. Thestatement captures the fundamental risk of innovation. Most innovations will fail,so the key to success is to identify failures early and move on to the nextinnovation. The successes pay for the failures as they are rolled out in theorganization or industry. This presents a dilemma for education. Failing oftenand failing early is perfectly acceptable when creating a new software program,but the idea of failing often and early with our nations children is unacceptable.However, stagnation in education is equally untenable.

Key elements of NCLB are designed to foster innovation and create a process toencourage scientific research. These elements of NCLB will create intensedebates over the next five years on how to foster innovation and increase thequality of education research. Educational research is not a soft science, butrather the most difficult type of science. Because children are complex andclassrooms are dynamic environments, educational research is extremelydifficult. The dynamic and unique nature of education may be one reason thatschool reform movements have historically had problems replicating successesin one school to other schools. However, to construe scientific in the context of educational research as only those methods that use controlled quantitativestrategies would be a mistake. 31

The next 14 years will see a sea change in how principals identify andincorporate innovation. The standards of NCLB will create a much higher level of educational research that incorporates more scientific methods from other disciplines while maintaining the learning they have developed to apply thatlearning to complex and dynamic classrooms. Non-profit organizations such asEducational Underwriters will also emerge to certify research and products thatmeet evidence standards under NCLB and to help principals pick the productsthat are the best fit for their schools.

31 Berliner, D.C. (2002) Educational Research: The Hardest Science of All. Educational Researcher , 31 (8): 1820.


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Where will these networks of learning innovation emerge? Over the next 14years, many public, charter and magnet schools will become centers of innovation. Other industries such as healthcare look to innovate in dedicatedcenters of excellence and then attempt to diffuse those innovations rapidly to thelarger system. Like healthcare, the education system needs to focus more on the

translation of innovation than innovation itself. Not every school needs to be onthe forefront of innovation, but those that are need to translate those innovationsas broadly and as quickly as possible.

The Office of Innovation and Improvement at the Department of Education canidentify a number of innovative magnet and charter schools. 32 However, manyother magnet and charter schools are not succeeding. The key to making magnetand charter schools succeed not just on an individual basis, but for all schools, isdeveloping ways to identify successful schools and fixing or revoking the charter of problem schools quickly.

The second important step for making charter and magnet schools work for all isto make them centers of innovation. Those magnet and charter schools thatsucceed need to have established channels to share their successes with other schools in the region. This creates an innovation network where magnet andcharter schools become a hub for innovation and their successes are shared withothers. Education research centers at universities and education technologycompanies also need to be involved in these innovation networks. Theseresearch and development centers will partner with local schools to create livinglaboratories to test their learning strategies and products.

How will busy educators learn about and use these innovations? Newtechnologies are likely to improve the ability of principals and teachers to identifysuccessful innovation in other schools. Intelligent agents will retrieve and filter information so that it is easier to find and create relevant knowledge. Digitalcommunication technologies will also make it cheaper and easier for schools toparticipate in these innovation networks as nodes for research and learning.

Platforms and practices for open source research are making it possible for organizations in different locations to share data and findings. In an open sourcemodel, schools will be able to test innovations in other schools against the datafor their own unique situations. When more principals and teachers can be activeparticipants in research and development, knowledge about importantinnovations will diffuse more rapidly.

Options for a Preferred Future for Schools & the Principalship1. Principals can mentor aspiring principals or those having performance

problems. 32 For examples of innovative magnet and charter schools see:http://www.ed.gov/admins/comm/choice/charter/index.html andhttp://www.edgov/admins/comm/choie/magnet/index.html


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2. Schools can look to other schools/organizations to form a local or regionalinnovation networks.

7. Surveillance Society Links Schoolhouses intoElectronic Safety Network

Schools in 2021 are linked into an electronic safety network that featuressophisticated threat detection and rapid response. Biometrics clear students and personnel for entry while profiling systems warn when aperson of interest tries to come on school grounds. Biosensors are usedto detect sudden changes in patterns of behavior or activities. Schools arebecoming more open to parents and the community through securedentries and virtual visitation.

Interacting Forces of Change Sensors and monitoring equipment will be ubiquitous in public areas to

continuously scan for risks. The security industry is refining behavioral research and data gathering

systems to help government agencies prevent terrorist or aberrantbehavior.

Public defense systems will continue refining rapid alert and responsesystems featuring skilled teams equipped with robotics.


What surveillance technologies will be commonplace in schools in 2021?Security technology is already a fixture of many schools. Metal detectors havebecome common at many urban school districts. Approximately 10% of high andmiddle schools and 3% of elementary schools have metal detectors. 33

Video surveillance can enable security personnel to monitor multiple schools atthe same time. It also allows police to be automatically notified if somethingoccurs after hours. Approximately 16% of the nations 100,000 schools havesome form of video surveillance systems in place. Most of these systems areexpensive closed-circuit television systems (CCTV), which require expensiveequipment and extensive rewiring. 34

33 Center for Disease Control and Prevention (2001). School Health Policies and Programs Study2000. Journal of School Health 71 (7).34 Nilsson, F. (2004, August) Surveillance 101. T.H.E. Journal . Retrieved 10/24/2006 athttp://www.thejournal.com/articles/16867


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A new and disruptive technology, IP TV, is a much cheaper way to introducevideo surveillance into school. These systems are easy to scale, allowing schoolsto expand the number of cameras over the course of multiple fiscal years. As thecost of these systems continues to decrease, more schools are likely to put videosurveillance systems into classrooms as well. 35

Concerns over terrorism have prompted increased funding in research anddevelopment in biometric security. Elementary and middle schools are a logicalnext step for the rollout of biometric devices after high profile public places. Threeschools in New Jersey have already implemented a pilot project to test irisscanning to control access to the schools to teachers, parents and staff. 36

In the near future, many schools will integrate their IT systems with their biometric security systems. 37 This will create new applications for principals totrack who uses school facilities and help first responders make life savingdecisions in case of an emergency.

Will surveillance technology provide new tools for principals, teachers andparents to improve learning? Digital security technology will provide not onlyincreased security, but new tools to improve staff performance and improve thelearning experience. Parents could use remote viewing capability to check up ontheir children and observe teachers. Video from classrooms could also berecorded to share best practices among the teaching staff, to allow students andparents to review presentations and to help principals do evaluations of their staff.

Canton High School is an example of a high school that is innovating throughvideo surveillance technology. Students can access video recordings from their classes through the school network to study for upcoming tests and recordings of the best performing teachers are often used in teacher training sessions. 38

Parents will have a wide range of technologies available to them to track their children and their education. These include GPS monitoring systems that can beplaced inside cell phones, cars and even clothing. Software programs are alsoavailable for parents to monitor online activity and communication. 39 It is likelythat these technologies will extend into the schoolhouse. Parents could use

35 Nilsson, F. (2004, August) Surveillance 101. T.H.E. Journal . Retrieved 10/24/2006 at

http://www.thejournal.com/articles/1686736 Sullivan, L. (2006, June 23). Iris Scanning for New Jersey Grade School. Tech Web News.Retrieved 10/24/2006 at http://www.informationweek.com/hardware/personaltech/17710302737 Goldberg, L. (2003, September). Creating Safer and More Efficient Schools With BiometricTechnologies. T.H.E. Journal . Retrieved 10/21/2006 at http://www.thejournal.com/articles/1643338 Nilsson, F. (2004, August) Surveillance 101. T.H.E. Journal . Retrieved 10/24/2006 athttp://www.thejournal.com/articles/1686739 DeFao, J. (2006, July 9 th). Parents Turn to Tech Toys to Track Teens. San FranciscoChronicle. Retrieved 10/24/2006 at http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/07/09/BIGMOTHER.TMP


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tracking technology to monitor their childrens movements, video cameras toobserve their childrens education and software programs to monitor their communications.

Options for a Preferred Future for Schools & the Principalship

1. Principals will need to gain public trust that new technologies will benefitall involved and will not be misused.2. Schools could create educational passports for children that contain

standard information on a chip. This passport would provide for continuityof learning and safety in a highly mobile world.

8. Societys Mounting Debts Compromise FutureInvestments in Education

Although Americans buy into nationalistic appeals to invest in science andtechnology to keep the economy globally competitive over the next decade,mounting debts make it difficult to invest in education. The public treasuryis stressed by rising costs for health care and pensions, national securityand a long neglected public infrastructure. High levels of personal debtmake increased taxes politically untenable.

Interacting Forces of Change

Aged Baby Boomers nearing end of life are placing extraordinarydemands on Social Security and Medicare.

There is a growing push to balance fairness of funding per student withfairness of tax burden placed on taxpayers. 40

A growing number of the super wealthy are becoming philanthropistswho step in where government funding is unavailable.


What will be competing for funds for public purposes in 2021? Longer lifespans, improvements in expensive medical technology and an expansion of benefits have made the continued growth of retirement and health plans for theelderly untenable. By 2020, it is estimated that 26.6% of all federal income taxeswill be needed to pay for Social Security and Medicare. By 2030, that number isprojected to increase to 49.7%. 41

40 Cohn, Dana B. (2006) Explaining Varied Willingness to Pay for Elementary and SecondaryPublic Schools. The University of Nebraska.41 John, DC and Moffit, RE (2006) Medicare and Social Security: Big Entitlement Costs on theHorizon. The Heritage Foundation. Retrieved 12/3/2006 athttp://www.heritage.org/Research/Budget/wm1054.cfm


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Baby Boomers, and their retirement, are both the source of the funding crisis andits solution. Since their numbers are too great to be out-voted, they will need tobe persuaded that the needs of the next generation are more important than their own. Baby Boomers may avert the Medicare funding crisis if they elect in large

enough numbers to withdraw from costly end of life healthcare services.Likewise, they may mitigate the Social Security crisis if they continue to worklater into life.

However, the enormous amount of debt many Americans have taken on in recentyears will reduce the willingness of taxpayers to fund rate hikes even if the BabyBoomers decide to work longer and withdraw from costly end of life services.Shortages of funds are already hurting social programs such as education inmany states. In 2005, the household debt-service ratio reached an all time highof 13.4% of after tax income. 42 The majority of Americans have borrowed theresources for a lifestyle they can ill afford. It would take a major reordering of

values to get Americans to give up credit and buy into taxes for public education.Instead it is the super wealthy who increasingly are filling this shortfall in publicresources for the common good. This may be a form of economic justice, sinceas economic and political commenter Kevin Phillips observes; crediblecalculations show that the top 1% of Americans in 2000 had as much disposableincome as the bottom 35%. 43 Even so, the Gates Foundation and all itscounterpart philanthropies and corporate foundations cannot spread sufficientfunding equitably across a nation of more than 300 million people to meet everypublic need.

What can be done to increase the priority for education? The short andsimple answer is a values shift. A tipping point must be created toward an ethicthat educating people is critical to a well functioning democracy. Then spendinghas to be aligned with that value.

Even if Americans are slow to invest in the next generation for altruistic reasons,they may be compelled to act in their economic interest. Thomas Friedmansounded this alarm in the best seller The World Is Flat : Because it takes fifteenyears to create a scientist or advanced engineer, starting from when that youngman or woman first gets hooked on science and math in elementary school, weshould be embarking on an all-hands-on-deck, no-holds-barred, no-budget-too-large crash program for science and engineering education immediately. 44

Volunteering may help contribute to creating a tipping point. Teach for Americahas been tremendously successful in giving the best and brightest of this college

42 Phillips, K. (2006) American Theocracy: The Period and Politics of Radical Religion, Oil andBorrowed Money in the 21 st Century. Penguin Books.43 Ibid.44 Friedman, TL. (2005) Op. cit.


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generation a firsthand experience with schools. Teach for America is well on theway to achieving its goal of being the top recruiter at elite campuses. Althoughonly a few of these talented young people continue in a career in education, theyare leaving with a keener understanding of what schools need. By 2021thousands of Teach for America alumni will be in key leadership positions in

business, government, and their communities.Options for a Preferred Future for Schools & the Principalship

1. Principals can engage the public in understanding where publicinvestments are most effective in the transitions from pre-K to college.

2. Schools should look to become a center for community activities to helpbuild support for additional funding.

9. Principals Set the Standard for Chief Learning

Officers (CLOs)

Effective principals in 2021 have become the model that other chief learning officers in corporations and organizations want to emulate. Theyare masters in leading their schools to learn and adapt in anuncompromising pursuit of what is best for their students. Emerging froman era of intense accountability few corporations will ever experience,these principals are creating learning organizations that are transformingindividual lives and communities.

Interacting Forces of Change

As more is known about how to close the education gap for under-achieving students, the public will recognize the integral role principalsplay in the continuous improvement of learning processes.

With so many corporate leaders falling into low public esteem for actsof corruption and greed, the public will turn to other sectors to findleaders to trust and respect.

The Malcolm Baldridge quality program inspires teachers andprincipals to use goal setting and evaluation to measure organizationalimprovement.


What will be the job description of the 2021 principal? In 2002, the NationalAssociation of Elementary School Principals anticipated the answer in itspublication, Leading Learning Communities. NAESP focused on principals asinstructional leaders, but this term may be too narrow to capture the full scope of the evolving job description. Chief learning officer seems a more fitting title for


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someone who is expected to be a force that creates collaboration and cohesionaround school learning goals and the commitment to achieve those goals.

Principals as CLOs will place student and adult learning at the center of theschool. They help students achieve high standards of academic performance by

creating safe and secure learning environments for students and fosteringcollaborative learning communities for adults. In 2021, as it was in 2002, thenew model of a school leader is one who is continually learning.

Some experts argue that no one person can do the job of principal and newstructures are required, like a team of leaders including a business manager or chief of operations and a chief academic officer. 45 Whatever the futureconfiguration, principals will practice learner-centered leadership and seekleadership contributions from multiple sources to balance management andleadership roles.

As a knowledge manager, the principal will need to draw on both theoretical andpractical knowledge about learning processes. 46The Interstate School LeadersLicensure Consortium (ISLLC) established competencies to guide theprofessional development of school administrators. ISLLC charges educationalleaders with facilitating the development, articulation, implementation andstewardship of a vision of learning that is shared and supported by the schoolcommunity. 47 Whether they are sustaining a school culture, managingoperations, collaborating with families and community members, or responding tothe larger political, legal and social context, all their responsibilities are centeredon learning.

Why must principals be leaders of change? Strategic leaders know how tolead change. They understand how to use information to accurately assess thesituation, set goals that define the work to be accomplished, inspire people toovercome resistance, and help their followers achieve and celebrate the smallvictories that add up to major transformation. Leading complex organizations likeschools requires a complex interplay of skills, motivation, and capacity toprovide meaning and animate others. 48 In the face of the challenges schools facetoday, principals must be prepared to be responsive and flexible in how theylearn with their teachers, students, parents and community what it takes toachieve learning outcomes.

45

Tucker, MS. and Codding, JB. (2002) Preparing Principals in the Age of Accountability, fromThe Principal Challenge, Leading and Managing Schools in an Era of Accountability, Jossey-Bass, San Francisco.46 Hill, P. (2002) What Principals Need to Know About Teaching and Learning, in The PrincipalChallenge, Leading and Managing Schools in an Era of Accountability. Editors Marc S. Tucker adJudy B. Codding. Jossey-Bass, San Francisco.47 Brian JC, Calnin, GT and Cahill, WP. (2002) Mission Possible? An International Analysis of Training for Principals, in The Principal Challenge, Leading and Managing Schools in an Era of Accountability. Editors Marc S. Tucker ad Judy B. Codding. Jossey-Bass, San Francisco.48 Ibid.


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As Michael Fullan observes, leading schools through complex reform agendasrequires new leadership that goes far beyond improving test scores. Principalswill need the courage and capacity to build new cultures based on trustingrelationships and a culture of disciplined inquiry and action. 49

How will principals grow into this challenging new role of chief learningofficer? Chief learning officers have to model the highest commitment tolearning in their organizations. They engage in continuous learning around thegoals their organizations are working to achieve. Some principals are alreadyliving this role today, and they can become the core of a network of mentors.They can be the lead learners in collaborative learning communities that extendbeyond their own schools.

Professionals define the standards of their profession and commit to training newentrants. School principals will have to be active in defining minimum

competencies and high levels of performance for their field. They will have to beequally willing to mentor new entrants and to discipline colleagues who fall shortof accepted standards of performance.

Options for a Preferred Future for Schools & the Principalship1. Principals can expand their vision of learning to embrace the experience

of children outside the schoolhouse.2. Schools could experiment with the Chief Learning Officer (CLO). For

example, CLOs could be given responsibility over a set number of students or teachers rather than a particular schoolhouse.

49 Michael F. (2003) The Moral Imperative of School Leadership. Ontario Principals Council andCorwin Press, 2003.

vision 2021 provocative forecasts.1

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