Diverging developments in African and Asian agriculture?

Arie Kuyvenhoven WU School of Social Sciences

Africa: different from Asia?

Geographical divide? Gloomy picture true? Something inevitable about Africa? Agriculture first, as in Asia? New developments and initiatives Conclusions

Geography, institutions, governance

Low population density, weak infrastructure Diverse geography, agro-ecology and

climate Slavery, poor colonial legacies,

fractionalisation Cold war politics, HIV/AIDS Political elites undermining markets (rents)

and capturing public services (patronage)

Poor economics

Lack of market openness and rural social capital

High cost of risk and volatility Deficient public services and infrastructure Overregulated economies, biased against

rural interests, aggravated by a resource curse

Gloomy and inevitable?

Climate and geography pose special challenges, but can be mitigated by technology response

Adverse policies, weak institutions, and inappropriate governance matter more, but being man-made, can be changed

Sub-Saharan Africa’s Reality I

Roughly 300 million people are chronically hungry; 40% of the population is outright poor

Two thirds of SSA is rural and home to three quarters of the poor

33 million small farmers make up 80% of all farms and supply 90% of agricultural produce

Yields in SSA much below China and India

. Yields and poverty in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: WDR 2008

Sub-Saharan Africa’s Reality II

During the 80s and 90s donors and African governments pulled out of agricultural investment, in favour of

Short-term emergency and humanitarian food aid

Realization that agriculture matters in early development: because of its size, its poverty reducing effect, and its trade creation

Africa’s main challenge

Extensificaton rational and easy Agro-ecology makes R&D expensive Complementary action and policies

problematic: the co-ordination issue Challenge: how to raise productivity by

locally adapted interventions in packages of private and public investment: intensification

Asia and Africa compared Modern varieties are adopted in Africa,

but often not sustained Asia’s Green revolution: state-led, market-

driven, small-farmer based; food self-sufficiency for geo-political reasons; legitimacy based on progress in rural areas; policy contagion

Africa’s dilemma: extensification conventional wisdom; diverse agro-ecology; initial self-sufficiency; legitimacy linked to urban demands and large-scale cash crop farming

African advances are emerging

Changes in governance, transparency and participation are emerging

Positive micro-evidence on the adoption of new varieties

Macro data show a positive trend: 5% GDP and 3 % agricultural growth during 2000-08

Modern variety diffusion by decade

Source: InterAcademy Council

CAADP, AGRA, CGIAR, World Bank

Focus on policy and institutional incentives to make intensification work

A range of technical options for sustainable, high-yielding and more resilient African farming systems; imperative to maintain R&D

Pay attention to: infrastructure, micro-finance and rural credit, seed and fertilizer markets

Diversification out of agriculture? Different views

Conclusions

Special features: yes; inevitable: no; gloomy

picture: overdone Prominent role governance and aid efforts Two lessons Green Revolution:

(1) location- and time-specific packages of complementary interventions

(2) apply the right mix of disciplines