ppt 11/14/2011_is war possible in east asia?
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War in Asia?
Tokyo, 14 November 2011Temple University, Japan Campus
Robert DujarricDirector, Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies
Temple University, Japan Campus, [email protected]
www.tuj.ac.jp/icas
Sad truth: War – always in fashionYesterday
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Today
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Defining “War in Asia”
• Point of origin: East Asia.• Type: Major conflagration.• Core conflict: China vs. USA/Japan.• Other participants: Unlimited.• Geographical limit: none.• Theaters: Land, Air, Sea, Space, Cyber-
space.• Time frame: Unknown.• Fatalities: Unknown.• Outcome: Unknown.
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Could it be a “major war?”
• Is China a peer competitor to the US/Japan?– Clearly not.– Military potential untested and unclear.– Could be a “paper tiger” but far from sure.– Possibility of a “major war” not insignificant.
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Key questions to answer
• Is such a war possible? Arguments against.– Economic interdependence makes war impossible
• Human nature is violent. “Make money not war” like “make love not war” is not universally accepted.
• Historical evidence disproves hypothesis.• Theoretical underpinnings defective.
– Nuclear deterrence precludes a Sino-US war.• Empirical data set too small and ambiguous.• Theory interesting but not convincing.• Non-nuclear Cold War not preordained.
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Who wants war? No one but…
• US goal: incorporate China into (US) global system.
• Not consistent with Chinese objectives.
• US (and Japan) won’t accept radical systemic change.
• Ideological confrontation.
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Possible fuses
• International ones:– Taiwan
– South China Sea
– India
– US (maritime issues)
– Pakistan/Afg./Central Asia
– Japan
– Russia8
Possible fuses (2)
• Domestic (in China and other countries):– Nationalism used for domestic political gain.– Domestic instability/weakness.– Separatism.
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Additional risk factors
• Who’s in charge in China?• Miscalculation.• Cumulative effect of multiple crises.• Perception US weakness.
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Reflections – from Clausewitz
• No one in his senses ought to start a war without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve and how he indents to conduct it.
• War is now untrammeled by any conventional restraints and has broken lose in all its elemental fury.
• No other human activity is so continuously or universally bound up with chance.
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Thank youFeel free to contact me:
Robert DujarricTemple University, Japan Campus
[email protected] www.tuj.ac.jp/icas Tel: (03) 5441-9800
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