South Asian Parliamentarians and Policymaker’s Sub-Regional Conference, 16-18th December 2013 Islamabad

Water Security in climate constrained South Asia,

Javeria Afzal, Oxfam Pakistan

Water stress a regional problem

South Asia: extreme water stress

• Pakistan and Afghanistan are no 32 and 37 on global list of countries with extremely high levels of baseline (normal) water stress.

• Over 80% of the water available to their agriculture, domestic & industrial users is withdrawn annually: leaving their farms, businesses, communities vulnerable to periods of scarcity.

• This vulnerability will increase due to climate change leading to an increased number of people living under severe water stress of 120 million to 1.2 billion by the 2020s

Real issue is our response to water stress

• All South Asia countries with high water stress also have inadequate or inappropriate water governance: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India.

• Afghanistan & Pakistan have worst water governance in Asia, except for Myanmar.

• “If some of the Asian developing… countries face a water crisis in the future it will not be because of physical scarcity of water, but because of inadequate or inappropriate water governance…. Major and fundamental changes in water governance practices are needed in nearly all.”

Governance = create & maintain water security

What is water security?

1. Household water security– piped water access, sanitation needs, hygiene

2. Economic water security– sustain food-, industry & energy security

3. Urban water security– water services &management for vibrant cities

4. Environmental water security– river basin’s ability to sustain ecosystem services

5. Resilience to water-related – capacity to cope with and recover from water-related disasters

South Asia has record water insecurity

• South Asia has worst national water security in Asia. The ADB calls South Asia a ‘hot spot’, where populations and economies are adversely impacted by poor water security

• In Asia South Asian nations are least secure for households, cities, environment, disaster resilience – example: 5 South Asian countries are in the bottom 7 on urban water security

in Asia, Bangladesh lowest of all.– example: on an index measuring river health 9 Asian countries score lowest:

‘bad’, 4 of which in South Asia.

• South Asia is slightly more secure in its economic water security than Central and West Asia.

Source: Asian Development Bank ‘Measuring water security in Asia and the Pacific’ 2013

Household water inequity highest in South Asia

• 90-96% of rural rich Asia have access to sanitation, only 2-4% of the rural poor do;

• Differences poorer vs. richer communities are 96% in Nepal, 92% in India and Pakistan

• 792 million people in Asia suffer the indignity of practicing open defecation, 631 million of them in South Asia

• 38% people in South Asia no access to sanitation. To achieve MDG 10 (water & sanitation) a distant reality.

Source: Asian Development Bank ‘Measuring water security in Asia and the Pacific’ 2013

South Asia agriculture not water secure

• Attention to agriculture is most critical. Over 40% South Asia’s arable land irrigated: key for national food security.

• Massive (subsidized) use of groundwater instrumental but unsustainable. As water tables fall, e.g. in Pakistan and North India, agriculture productivity is becoming insecure.

• Low agricultural water productivity + low per capita water storage

capacity

• Large irrigation systems underperforming in water services to farmers and sustainability

Source: Asian Development Bank ‘Measuring water security in Asia and the Pacific’2013

Example: Pakistan household water security

• Est. 25% population has access to safe & sufficient drinking water, maybe 10% or less in rural areas. (However there is lack of data on this).

• Only 3% Pakistan’s fresh water resources are used for household purposes and drinking.

• Water related disease causes 14% illnesses children under five. 200.000 children in Pakistan die every year due to diarrhoeal diseases alone.

Source: The UN System in Pakistan: Water – a vital Source of Life 2003 page 63 and ActionAid “Drinking water crisis in Pakistan and the issue of bottled water” 2005

South Asian agriculture not water securecontinued

• Particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate variability, incl. increased frequency & severity droughts & storms.

• Decreasing water quality limits water use, Saline soils affect 20% of irrigated areas in Pakistan

Source: Asian Development Bank ‘Measuring water security in Asia and the Pacific’2013

Pakistan: water insecurity = food insecurity

• water use efficiency in Pakistan is among the lowest in the world. For wheat, for example, it is 0.5 kg/m3 as compared to 1.0 kg/m3 in India and 1.5 kg/m3 in California.

• This has led to reduction in crop yields (overall 25 %, a high of 40-60 per cent in Sindh) and lower overall agricultural productivity.

• Water shortage, lack of inputs, poor irrigation practices and soil salinisation are the major factors for low crop yields.

• The poor tend to spend a high proportion of their income, perhaps 50-80 per cent, on food consumption and water.

• To meet Pakistan food requirements, wheat cultivated area has to increase by 46%. Given the present water availability, this does not seem possible. Only way to achieve this food target is increase water use productivity.

Source: Asad Sarwar Qureshi: Efficiency in irrigation water use. Dawn.com 2013

South Asia floods and droughts: high risk, low capacity

• Resilience = a country’s exposure to disaster related risks and its capacity to overcome such disasters

• Asia subregions prone to water related disasters: affected people globally from 1980-2006: 90% in AsiaSource: Adikari and J. Yoshitani. 2009. ‘Global trends in water-related disasters: an insight for policymakers. http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0018/001817/181793E.pdf?bcsi_scan_97e98328e2b67804=0&bcsi_ scan_filename=181793E.pdf

• ADB’s national resilience index: bottom 4 Asian countries include Pakistan and Bangladesh. This costs lives and massive economic loss;– Bangladesh: highest rates of water-related fatalities in Asia: frequent floods,

storm surges, rising sea levels (40% of highly populated land lies below 10 m above sea level);

– Pakistan: extensive flooding in 2010 and 2011;Source: Asian Development Bank ‘Measuring water security in Asia and the Pacific’2013

Climate change lowers resilience• Climate change induced glacial melt will cause more flood risk,

substantial reductions in dry season flow, negative impact on downstream agriculture relying on irrigation;

• Continued melting glaciers could seriously affect half a billion people in the Himalaya-Hindu-Kush region and 250 million people in China who depend on glacial melt for water supplies

• Sea level rise of 40 cm will increase the annual number of people flooded in coastal populations from 13 million to 94 million and almost 60% of this increase will occur in South Asia (along coasts from Pakistan, through India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to Burma) (Wassmann et al., 2004)

Source: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ’The science of AR5 WG1 and the Consequences; Region by Region; Future Climate Change and Impacts South Asia’ September 2013

National policy needs• Mobilise general public for equitable & just access to water and sanitation.

Stimulate self mobilisation. Create broad public awareness and policy support on climate change adaptation, for example the preparedness to water disasters;

• Invest water users with real joint responsibility for sustainable and equitable water management incl. democratic self management at local levels;

• Create and monitor effective and accountable transsectoral, integrated national to local governance plans and institutions;

• Secure and show effective, accountable, national to local implementation of laws, policies for integrated water resources management;

• Start managing groundwater as a valuable and limited resource;• Revitalise irrigation, to focus its services on farmers and sustainability,• Fund, help establish and monitor institutions and systems to collect, share &

analyse data, esp. at rural household and community levels: on water access, risks, trends & forecasts, local adaptation expertise and vulnerability. Local to national policies are not informed by facts;

Thank you!