powertrain trends and future potential · robert bosch gmbh reserves all rights even in the event...

1 DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©

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Automotive Technology

Powertrain

Trends and Future Potential

Dr. Johannes-Joerg

Rueger

Sr. Vice President, Robert Bosch

Panel “New Directions in Engine and Fuels”DEER Conference,

Dearborn, August 4, 2009

2

Powertrain


•

Global Trends –

Fighting Global Warming

•

Clean Diesel –

Neglected in the U.S. for Too Long

Agenda

DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©



•

Future of Powertrain

Systems –

Efficient CO2 reduction @ reasonable costs

3

Worldwide Powertrain Trends

140

CAFE LT/MDV

CAFE PC

CO2[g/km]

130

95

1,09 t weight

2008 2012

phase-in

2012-15 for

65/75/80/100% of fleet

229

183

mpg

22,324,9

27,931,2

37,241,6

55,762,3

l/100 km

10,59,4

8,47,5

6,35,7

4,23,8

GasolineDiesel

157 = 35,5 mpg

CO2

emission reduction is a world-wide topic!

Fuel Economy -

Targets EU CAFE CARB

CHINA JAPAN

km/l

9,510,6

11,913,3

15,917,5

23,826,3




4

Worldwide Powertrain Trends

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

05 08 09 12 16 05 08 09 12 16 05 08 09 12 16 05 08 09 12 16 05 08 09 12 16 05 08 09 12 16

Diesel DI-Gasoline PFI-Gasoline

Flex-Fuel, CNG, LPG Hybrid, EV Estimation 10.2008

Production: Vehicles World by RegionMio.

25 21 23 24 27

Sou

rce:

DS

/MK

S 9

8401

44

North & LatinAmerica

Europe China Other Regions 1)

Japan &Thailand

India

Source: C/AS LTFC Cycle I 2009 Group View

17 18 15 16 1749 49 47 46 459 9 9 11 15 46 44 42 47 52 17 18 13 17 18

DI-Gasoline = Direct Injection Gasoline; EV = Electric Vehicle; CNG = Compressed Natural Gas; LPG = Liquified

Petroleum Gas

* Other Regions = Australia, Africa and Asia w/o Japan, Thailand

and China

%

Diesel Share




5

Electric (Battery/Fuel

cell)

Hybrid

Hybrid

Electric/Battery

Electric/Fuel cell

Range extender

Range extender

Gasoline Diesel

Diesel Alternative

fuels

Gasoline

Diesel

Alternative

fuels

HCCI

Gasoline

1997 2015

Powertrains

for Passenger Cars –

TimelineWorldwide Powertrain Trends




6

The Future –

Not Just Electric Driving

from: Cackette, California Air Resources Board, January 2009

CARB Scenario for the Introduction of Electric Cars

95% 80% 60%share of “conventional”

technology




7

Powertrain


•

Global Trends –


•

Clean Diesel –


•


Systems –


Agenda




8

Reduction of Vehicle CO2

-Emissions

Direct: oCCS1) Indirect:

Hydraulic

Efficiency

Mechanic

Efficiency

Thermodynamic

Efficiency

ConventionalPowertrain

Downsizing

Downspeeding

ElectrifiedPowertrain

BM

EP [b

ar]

0369

12151821242730

N [1/min]500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

380380

380

380380380

360360

360

360360360 220220220

220

220

220220

220220220220

230230230

230230230

230230

230230

230230

240240240

240240

240

240240

240240

240240

250250250

250250

250

250250

250250

250250

270270270

270

270270

270

270270

270270270 340

340340

340

340340

340340

242234

229222

213216

208204207

209

216

252

BSFC[g/kWh]

BM

EP [b

ar]

0369

12151821242730

N [1/min]500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

380380

380

380380380

360360

360

360360360 220220220

220

220

220220

220220220220

230230230

230230230

230230

230230

230230

240240240

240240

240

240240

240240

240240

250250250

250250

250

250250

250250

250250

270270270

270

270270

270

270270

270270270 340

340340

340

340340

340340

242234

229222

213216

208204207

209

216

252

BSFC[g/kWh]

Efficient Emission Reduction

Optimized DeNOx1) Optimized Conventional

Combustion System

Low NOx

-Combustionas enabler


Systems




9

Potential and Limits of Electric Vehicles

0 g/

kmlo

cal e

mis

sion

s

120

g/km

*w

ell t

o w

heel

80

40

120

160

0Vehicle weight 1000 kg, Range 200 km, Battery 35 kWh

Electric vehicle technology

CO

2 em

issi

ons

[g/k

m]

* based on the German energy mix

200

Electric vehicle

–

CO2

emissions

<100

g/k

m*

with

ad

vanc

ed t

echn

olog

y




10

110120130140150160170180190200210220

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Year

CO

2 [g

/km

]

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

YearC

O2

[g/k

m]

90100110120130140150160170180

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

CO

2 [g

/km

]

Gasoline

Diesel

90100110120130140150160170180190

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

CO

2 [g

/km

]

Golf V 1.9 TDI

(77 kW)

Golf VI 1.6 TDI

Blue Motion (77 kW)

Future Potential of Conventional Combustion Engines

CO2 Emissions (New PCs, EU15)Small

Upper Medium

appr. 30g/km

appr. 40g/km

[1250-1470 kg]

Medium

[Inertia Weight]

Intro of DI-Diesel

Drastic gains achievable for both, Gasoline and Diesel technologySource: Polk Marketing Systems

appr. 50g/km

SUV-impact

Compact

appr. 30g/kmGolf V 1.6 FSI

(75 kW)

Passat

Variant 2.0 TDI

Blue Motion (81 kW)

Passat

Variant 1.4 TSI (90 kW)

[1470-1700 kg]

[1700-1810 kg][1810-1930 kg]

Passat

Variant 1.6 FSI (75 kW)

Passat

Variant 1.9 TDI (77 kW)

Golf VI 1.4 TSI

(90 kW)




11

Gasoline

CO2

Emissions for Diesel & Gasoline Technologies

Diesel0

40

80

160

200

-29%-22% -39%

2.0l

200 Nm1.4l

210 Nm1.1l

200 Nm1.1l

200+140 Nm2.0l

340 Nm1.6l

340 Nm1.6l

340 Nm1.2l

~300 Nm

G0 G1 G2 G2H D0 D1 D2 D3

Gx

Dx

Gas

olin

e pa

ckag

esD

iese

l pa

ckag

es

Hybrid

1.2l300+140 Nm

D3H

Hybrid

182

CO2

[g/km]

142130

112

144

112105

9786

-53%-30% -45% -49% -58%

-22%

-28%

-33%

-40%120

Compact Class, NEDC

Gasolines

AND Clean Diesels provide potentials for further CO2

reduction





12

Evolution in Clean Diesel & Gasoline Technology

1) turbo-charged with downsizing and var. valve timing (VVT);

2) max. potential w/ downsizing, transmission optimization; 3) Start/Stop w/ recup., thermo management (ThM), Decos; 4) Start/Stop w/ recup., combustion optimization; 5) Battery 1.0 kWh; 6) ThM, down speeding, downsizing, T/C optimization; 7) CO2

optimization; 8) VVL in 2-

step, down speeding, downsizing; / costs 2014 / * Further Clean Diesel evolution steps D1 & D3 are not shown

Gasoline Clean DieselPkg. Description Displ. & Torq. Pkg.* Description Displ. & Torq.

G0 Port fuel injection (PFI) 2.0 l

200 NmD0 Common rail system, turbo 2.0 l

340 Nm

G1 Direct injection (DI)1), turbo, downsizing, start/stop3), thermal management

1.4 l

210 NmD2 + oCCS

(opt. Combustion)+ start/stop 4)

+ thermal management 7)

+ downsizing ,+ close PI

1.6 l

340 Nm

D4 + NOx

-EGT 1.6 l

340 Nm

+ downsizing

+ var. valve lifting (VVL)8)1.1 l

200 Nm+ downsizing 1.2 l

300 Nm

G3 + hybrid 2,5) 1.1 l

200+140 NmD5 + hybrid 2,5) 1.2 l

300 + 140 Nm

Medium class car (1 400 kg), 100 kW, MT5 (manual transmission), MVEG-cycle, EU6

G0

G1

G2

D0

D1

D2

D3

G2H D3H





13

Fuel Savings vs. Additional Component Costs

Additional OEM component costs [in €]

Fuel

sav

ings

[in

€]

Bubble size represents

CO2

emission

Clean Diesel

Gasoline

Premise: costs over 3 years at 15 000 km p.a., average fuel prices in Germany of 2006-2008: Diesel 1.20 €/l, Gasoline 1.33€/l

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500 Gain

LossG1

G2H

500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000

G2

D0

D1D2D3

G0

Hybrid

500

3 000

3 500

D3H

Hybrid

-27% CO2

-33% CO2

FE enhancement for Clean Diesels & Gasolines

follows similar gradient

Efficient CO2 Reduction @ Reasonable Costs




14

Powertrain


•

Global Trends –


•

Clean Diesel –


Agenda




•


Systems –


15

Real American Driving Profile

Study based on GPS-

monitored Californian mid-size sedan owners:

Median Californian driving intensity is between highway and US06 cycles

Study based on GPS-

monitored Californian mid-size sedan owners:Median Californian

driving intensity is between highway and US06 cycles

Clean Diesel –

Fuel Economy and Real-world Performance




16

•

CAFÉ

is 55% city, 45% highway

•

tax incentives are 100% city

•

energy intensity of real world driving profile in average is comparable to highway cycle and beyond

Emissions follow real-world driving, not test cycles

0

10

20

30

40

50

city highway US06

mpgDiesel

+23%

vs.

Hybrid

Hybrid

+10%

vs.

Diesel

cycle based calculation

Gas

olin

eH

ybrid

Die

sel

Diesel

+31% vs.

HybridG

asol

ine

Hyb

ridD

iese

l

Gas

olin

eH

ybrid

Die

sel

Source: simulation based on Mercedes E-class, 1700kg,

combustion 110kW, electrical 31kW, Li-Ion battery, 6-speed AT

Further potential of Clean Diesel with e.g. Start-Stop not even considered

real-world driving

Clean Diesel –

Fuel Economy and Real-world Performance

source: auto motor sport, 2008




17

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

Year [CY]

Fuel

Pric

e [U

SD]

Diesel Gasoline

Fuel Prices –

Parallel Upwards Trend

EIA Diesel/Gasoline Price History and Forecast

Current (06/08/09) national average D/G = -

0.18 USD

Today

Source: EIA




18

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 50,000 100,000 150,000

Clean Diesel –

Prevailing in Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)

Auction Results (Example Jetta

TDI / Prius)

Source: Martec

/ Mannheim Auto Auction

VW Jetta

TDIToyota Prius

5 year / 68k miles

16%

19%

18%

Res

idua

l val

ue [%

]

Mileage [miles]* auction data from 2006 to Mid 2008




19

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

Diesel = Gasoline - 25 ctDiesel = GasolineDiesel = Gasoline +25 ct

TCO example VW Jetta

TDI

2

Fuel

Pric

e [U

SD

]

Mileage [miles]

Current Price: 2.49 USDPrice delta: 0.18 USD

Break Even at 6500 miles/year

Source: Martec

/ Edmunds

Clean Diesel –

Prevailing in Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)




20

Powertrain


Dr. Johannes-Joerg

Rueger

Sr. Vice President, Robert Bosch

Panel “New Directions in Engine and Fuels”DEER Conference,

Dearborn, August 4, 2009




powertrain trends and future potential · robert bosch gmbh reserves all rights even in the event...

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