POPULATION AGING IN VIET NAM

NGUYEN VIET HA, MA.

General Office for Population and Family Planning

Vietnam Ministry of Health

CONTENTS1. World trend of Aging population

2. Population Aging in Vietnam:

Current Situation

Assessment

Recommendations and policy

orientations

Increasing population aging

“Population Aging” is a global

issues, having impacts to all

nations

“Population Aging” appeared

in XX century and will

continue to increase in the

XXI century

2009-2050: double: 11% =>

22% (60+)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1950 2009 2050

811

22%60+

Population 60+ in the world

1950-2050

Source: UN, World population ageing 2009

% of elderly people (65+)

in the world, 2050

Sources: Population Reference Bureau, Toshiko Kaneda A Critical Window for Policymaking on Population Aging in Developing Countries

CURRENT SITUATION OF POPULATION AGING IN

VIETNAM

Population Aging in Vietnam

Source: GSOs. Pop census and Housing 1979, 1989. 1999, 2009 and Survey on Population –FP Change , 2011

In 3 decades (1979-2009)

increased 0.036 points/year (65+)

2009-2012 increased 0.17

point/year

VIET NAM IS IN THE PERIOD OF

“POPULATION AGING”

4,7 5.8

6.4

7.1

2009-2012 2012-20201979-1989

65+(%)

1999

4.7

Trend of 65+ population ratio , VietNam 1979-2020

In 2011:

Viet Nam entered

the Period of

“Population Aging”

Year Total

population

(mil)

60+

(mil)

(%) 65+

(%)

1979 53,74 3,71 6,9 4,7

1989 64,38 4,64 7,2 4,7

1999 76,33 6,19 8,1 5,8

2009 85,84 7,45 8.68 6,4

2011 87,61 8,65 9,9 7,0

2015 91,5 10,50 11,3 7,6

Projection of Population ratio by age group, Viet Nam 2009-2049

Source: GSOs, Vietnam Population Projection 2009-2049; Survey on Pop-FP Change 1/4/2012

VIET NAM IS IN THE PERIOD OF

“POPULATION AGING”

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049

Tỷ t

rọn

g d

ân s

ố (

%)

65+

15-64

0-14

2011:

“Population

Aging”

0-14: Decease gradually

“Golden /Bonus Population”

65+: continue to increase

Projection of 65+ population ratio, Viet Nam 2009-2049

Source: GSOs, Vietnam Population projection 2009-2049

VIET NAM IS IN THE PERIOD OF

“POPULATION AGING”

Transition from “population aging ” to “aged population” of Viet Nam and some countries

Source: Kinsella and Gist, 1995; Census Bureau, 2005; Vietnam GSO, 2010

SHORT TRANSITION PERIOD FROM “POPULATION

AGING” TO “AGED POPULATION”

Vietnam elderly ratio

increasing fast

Aging indicator increasing

drastically

Vietnam Life expectancy

increasing

20

26

26

45

45

47

53

65

69

73

85

Việt Nam

Nhật Bản

Trung Quốc

Anh

Tây Ban Nha

Balan

Hungary

Canada

Mỹ

Australia

Thuỵ Điển

Pháp

Thời gian chuyển đổi (năm)

Time for transition from

“Population Aging” to “Aged

population” in Vietnam is 17-

20 years, shorter than other

countries, even those with

better development level

Life expectancy of population group 60+

In Viet Nam and some countries, regions, 2010

Source: UN, Population Ageing and Development 2012

LIFE EXPECTANCY 60+

Life expectancy of population

group 60+ is very high and

increasing

17,75

18

19,5

20

21,5

22

23

23,5

23,5

23,5

24

24,5

24,5

26

Các nước đang PT

Nga

Trung Quốc

Thế giới

Việt Nam

Châu Âu

Các nước PT

Mỹ

Anh

Hàn Quốc

Canada

Pháp

Australia

Nhật Bản

Viet Nam: 21,5Same as developed

countries

Elderly population in Viet Nam ( % of total population) 1979-2049

Elderly people in Viet Nam increasing in the oldest

group

Average life expectancy in South Korea: 80.5, of which 65+ is 11% of total population but the

number of people of over 100 years old is 1.836 persons (0,0037% of total population).

Average life expectancy in Viet Nam: 72.8 (2009), of which 65+ is 6.6% of total population but the

number of people over 100 years old is 7.200 persons ( 0,0084% of total population).

Therefore, although the percentage of elderly people and the average life expectancy of Vietnam is

lower than South Korea but the percentage of people over 100 years old in Vietnam is 2,2 times as

compared to that in South Korea.

Age

group

1979 1989 1999 2009 2019 2029 2039 2049

60-64 2.28 2.40 2.31 2.26 4.29 5.28 5.80 7.04

65-69 1.90 1.90 2.20 1.81 2.78 4.56 5.21 6.14

70-74 1.34 1.40 1.58 1.65 1.67 3.36 4.30 4.89

75-79 0.90 0.80 1.09 1.40 1.16 1.91 3.28 3.87

80+ 0.54 0.70 0.93 1.47 1.48 1.55 2.78 4.16

SOME MAJOR REASONS

Population Aging in Vietnam

Fast decrease of fertility rate

Decrease of mortality rate

Fast increase of life expectancy

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

DECREASE

Source: GSOs, Population Census and Housing 1979, 1989, 1999, 2009, Annual Surveys on Pop-FP Change

Total Fertility Rate, Viet Nam, 1960-2015

6,3

4,8

3,8

2,3 2,09 2,03 2 1,99 2,05 2,1 2,09 2,1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1960 1979 1989 1999 2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fertility replacement rate

Source: GSOs, Population and Housing Surveys 1979, 1989, 1999, 2009

MORTALITY RATE DECREASING

o Mortality Rate: Decreasing: CDR, IMR, MMR Decreasing

o IMR decreasing very fast

Progress in Medical Science, Hygiene, Nutrition…

Improved socio-economical conditions

36

42,3

36,7

16

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1979 1989 1999 2009

IMR (%o)

Infant mortality rate of under 1 year old through Pop Censuses (%o)

Source: UNFPA, State of world population, 2008, WHO, World Health Statistic 2012

VIETNAM EXPECTION OF BEING ALIVE

AT BIRTH IS INCREASING

74,2

74,4

75,8

77,2

78,6

78,7

80,1

80,4

81,1

84,1

Đông Timor

Cambodia

Lào

Thái Lan

Indonesia

Philippines

Malaysia

Việt Nam

Brunei

Singapore

Projection of Life Expectancy in South East Asian countries 2050

Viet Nam, 2015: 73,3

Male: 70,7, Female: 76,1

40

73

48

69

1960 2010

Life Expectancy in Vietnam and

in the World 1960-2010

Việt Nam Thế giới

SOME OTHER CHARACTERISTICS OF ELDERLY

PEOPLE IN VIETNAM

Population Aging in Vietnam

Source: GSOs, 2009 Population and Housing Census, National Survey on Elderly People 2011

Vietnam elderly people living majorly in rural

areas, being farmers and doing agricultural work

Over 70% of elderly people have to earn their

living with support from their descendents

and family members (only over 25,5% live by

pension or social allowances)

Agricultural land is narrowing, difficulty in

production due to natural disaster and

diseases lead to low income for farmers in

general and elderly people in particular

North

Midland

and

mountaino

us region

12%

Red River

Delta

28%

North

Central

and

Central

Coast

Region

25%

Central

Highland

4%

South East

12%

Mekong

delta

19%

Elderly distribution by region

(% of country elderly people)

Region

65+/ total population

(%)

Midland and mountainous

areas in the North 6,0

Red River Delta 8,3

North Central and Coastal

areas in the Center 7,8

Central Highland 4,0

South East 4,7

Mekong Delta 6,1

Vietnamese elderly mostly live with their children or grandchildren

while family structure tends to change

Source: Vietnam National Committee for the Elderly , National Survey on Vietnamese Elderly people, 2011; Madrid 10 year Report , 2012

Vietnamese elderly mostly live with their

children and grandchildren

72,3% of elderly people live with

their descendants while family

size tends to change from

traditional family to nuclear

family.

Status of elderly people live

without husband/wife is high,

while % of female elderly living

alone is 5.44 time more than male

elderly; Divorced and separated

elderly ins 2.2 times more than

male (2009).

Living alone is a

disadvantage to elderly

people as family is always

fundamental support for

family members when

getting old .

With

descend

ants

72%

With

husband/

wife 15%

Alone

10%

Other

3%

% of people living with elderly

people %

Different from Viet Nam, elderly people in the world living with husband/wife

Sourve: UNFPA, Ageing in the Twenty-first century: A Celebration & A Challenge, 2012

Elderly people in the world mostly living

with husband/wife

Female elderly accounting for high percentage

Source: GSOs, Survey on Pop-FP Change 1/4/2015

FEMALIZE ELDERLY PEOPLE

60-69: 1 male in 1.2 female elderly

70-79: 1 male in 1.5 female elderly

80+: 1 male in 1.9 female elderly

This leads to the phenomenon of

“femalizing of elderly people” in

Vietnam (life expectancy of female

elderly is higher than male).However, female elderly often

face with more risk than male in

terms of income, health status and

ability to get access to health care

services and health insurance

Age group Number of

females in 100

males

60-69 122

70-79 152

80+ 187

Difficulties in material life of Vietnamese elderly

Source: Vietnam National Committee of Elderly people , Madrid 10 years report 2012; Natinal Survey on the Elderly 2011

DIFFICULTIY IN LIFE

Current elderly generation were born

and grew up during the war so they do

not have opportunity for health care and

accumulation

70% of elderly do not have material

accumulation

62,3%: Having difficulties, lacking.

Rural : 68%, Urban: 50%

27,6%: Think : economy is getting worse

18% sống trong hộ nghèo

Tuổi càng cao nghèo càng cao

Nữ nghèo hơn Nam

Nông thôn nghèo hơn T.thị

Over 30% living in permanent houses

Nearly 10% living in temperary houses

Source: National survey on Vietnamese Elderly People, 2011; Madrid 10 year Report , 2012

LIMITED HEALTH CONDITIONS

Health conditions of Vietnamese Elderly is limited

Although average life expectancy is high (73 year) their

burden of diseases is high for Vietnamese people (15.3

year WHO, 2009);

Double disease burden (around 95% of the elderly

have diseases, mostly chronic and non - transmitted

diseases)

27%: Difficulty in daily life, need support; mostly from

husband/wife and children. 60% female elderly help

male while it is 30% vise versa

67,2%: Having weak and very weak health condition,

only 5%: Good. Percentage of weak female is higher

than male, rural is higher than urban

Percentage of elderly in rural areas in weak health or

suffering concussion in 12 months and being treated by

health workers is low (13,1%) and is only half of those

in urban areas (23,45)

35%: Feel sad and

disappointed (at least

some times)

22%: Feel lonely

33%: Do not share joy

and sorrow with anybody

VIETNAM STATE POLICY ON ELDERLY

PEOPLE

Vietnamese people have good tradition: Respectto parents, taking care of grandparents andrespect the elderly

Constitution 1946, “ Support to Old and disablecitizens who can not work” (Article 14).

Ordinance on the elderly (2009); Law on theelderly (2011); The National Action Program forvienamese older people

Several Agencies working on this issue

Association of the Elderly people, Care Fund forthe Elderly

Day for Vietnamese Elderly: 6/6

Source : National Assembly, Government of Vietnam www.na.gov.vn: www.chinhphu.vn

President Hochiminh

reading the Declaration of

the Independence of the

Vietnam Democracy and

Republic

Some Party’s and State’s policies on the

elderly

OBSERVATIONS&

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POLICY

Population Aging in Vietnam

1. Increase of life expectancy is the greatest achievement of the human being

2. People’s awareness and behavior still do not adjust to the aging society

3. Have not yet taken the advantage of elderly people in Vietnam

Some parts of the society still have biased thoughts that elderly people is a burden

“Awareness and responsibility of some levels of Party, authority and agencies

towards the elderly people and Association of Elderly People is still limited”

(Conclusion No 305-TB/TW of the Central Party dated 03/2/2010)

Elderly people need to have opportunity to make contribution to the development

of the country and share benefit

OBSERVATIONS

Percentage of the elderly understanding elderly rights is not high.

50% know about their rights to enjoy allowance or life expectancy

appraisal ; Limited understanding of other rights

4. Social security system do not meet the

needs of the elderly

5. Health care system do not meet the

increasing needs of the elderly

6. Changes in age distribution will affect

economy through changes in size and

structure of population in working age and

structure of individual consumption

7. Challenges in policy making and planning

OBSERVATIONS

30% of the elderly do not have

any kinds of health insurance

54,6% need treatment. Rural

is higher than urban

70% of the elderly have to pay

for health care services, drugs

(among those who are treated)

Treatment are mostly in

central or provincial , or

district hospitals

50% not affordable => No

treatment

More than 16% not satisfied

RECOMMENDATIONS AND ORIENTATION FOR

POLICY

1. A need of long term strategy to slow down the transition from “population

aging” to “Aged population”: Maintain appropriate fertility rate.

2. Bringing in to full play the advantages of the elderly

On capability, knowledge, expertise of the elderly;

Job opportunity appropriate to the elderly;

Bring into full play the outstanding and respected elderly in the family to

build up resilient family, generations and community;

Especially the role of the elderly in ethnic minority community;

Promoting the role of the elderly in policy development, social criticism,

scientific research, teaching;

• Thank you very much!

•谢谢! ありがとう!

•감사합니다...!