policy options for coping with agrometeorological … · with agrometeorological risks and...
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Paulo Afonso RomanoDeputy Secretary for Agriculture, Cattle Raising and Supply
POLICY OPTIONS FOR COPING WITH AGROMETEOROLOGICAL
RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES
Belo Horizonte-MG
JULY/2010
TALLER INTERNACIONAL SOBRE LA CRISIS DE SOBREVIVENCIA DE LOS PRODUCTORES RURALES
SERVIÇOS DE CLIMA Y TEMPO
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INDEX
2
GROWTH OF WORLD POPULATION
GLOBAL SOCIETY DEMAND
POLITICAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC CHANGES
TRANSITION OF THE AGRICULTURAL STRUCTURE
WORLD PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF GRAINS
BRAZILIAN EXPORTS
BRAZILIAN AGRIBUSINESS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
PARADIGM SHIFT
NEW DEMANDS OF THE CONTEMPORARY SOCIETY
MANAGERS OF THE RURAL AREA
MINAS GERAIS – SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE
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GROWTH OF WORLD POPULATION
2
1950 2,5 BILLION INHAB.
1975 4,1 BILLION INHAB.
2000 6,1 BILLION INHAB.
2025 8,0 BILLION INHAB.
2050 9,2 BILLION INHAB.
DEMAND FOR FOOD/ ENERGY/ FIBERS
3
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GLOBAL SOCIETY DEMAND
37% 63%
45% 55%
140 MILLION PEOPLE
EXITED THE POVERTY LINE
1998US$37,5 1 TRILLION
2008US$68,6 TRILLION
60% OF THE POPULATION IN THE CITIES
ENERGY ANDFOOD
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
EMERGING COUNTRIES AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
WORLD GDP
Source: United Nations: World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (2007)Design: SEAPA 4
• China: 19,8%
• India: 17,1%
• EU: 7,3%
• EUA: 4,5%• Indonesia: 3,5¨%• Brazil: 2,9%
• Pakistan: 2,6%
• Others: 42,3%
20086,69 billioninhabitants
4
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INDUSTRIALIZATION AND URBANIZATION
POLITICAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC CHANGES
5Source: IBGE – Demographic Censuses of 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1991 and 2000 / PNAD 2006, 2007and 2008.Design: SEAPA
2,93,03,03,24,04,55,56,05,5
17,016,716,514,7
11,8
9,2
6,2
4,02,3
1950 1960 1970 1980 1991 2000 2006 2007 2008
População Rural População Urbana
70% of the population ofMinas Gerais
(7,8 million inhabit.) 14% of the population ofMinas Gerais
(19,9 million inhab.)
MINAS GERAIS
Rural population Urban population
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TRANSITION OF THE AGRICULTURAL STRUCTURE
EXPANSION-AGRICULTURAL BORDER TOWARDS CENTRAL BR - CERRADO
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: “GREEN REVOLUTION”:AGRICULTURAL POLICY: SNCR, PGPM, PROAGRO, Research and Rural Extension.
6Source: CONAB – Historical series / Monitoring of the Brazilian Harvest – Grains, June, 2010.Design: SEAPA
47,749,137,836,635,642,239,740,4
37,3
135,1114,7
100,378,468,371,5
58,152,246,9
1976/77 1980/81 1984/85 1988/89 1992/93 1996/97 2000/01 2004/05 2008/2009
Area (Million ha) Producion (Million t)
125,4%1.258 2.835
222,3%1.142 3.681PRODUCTIVITY (KG/ha)
BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION OF GRAINS
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Source: USDA – Design: SEAPA
WORLD PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF GRAINS
Production x Consumption*: total of the period (2000/01-2009/10)
7Note: * soybean, maize, wheat, barley, oats and rice
Million tons
Brazil is the "superpower ready to feed the world "Financial Times - 11/05/2009
7
+ 2,2- 382,0
+ 217,9
World China Brazil
Prod20.956,6 Cons.
20.954,4
Prod3.819,0
Cons.4.201,0
SUPPLY OF STOCKS
Prod1.122,9 Cons.
905,0
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
BRAZILIAN EXPORTSRELATIVE PARTICIPATION OF THE AGRIBUSINESS
118,5 137,8 160,6 197,9 153,0 89,2
Source: MDIC- ALICEWEB- Design: SEAPA
BILLION DOLLARS
43,6 49,5 58,4 71,8 64,7 34,9
* Related to the period from January to June 2010. 8
38,5 42,7 49,7 59,9 54,9 28,9TRADE BALANCE (US$ BILLION)
AGRIBUSINESS EXPORT (US$
BILLION)
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BRAZILIAN AGRIBUSINESSEMPLOYMENT GENERATION (2007)
Provides jobs for 3,5 million people
Fonte: IBGE / FIPE - Elaboração: Seapa
90,8 millionpeople
AgribusinessCoffee10%
Other agribusinessactivities
90%
33,5 millionpeople
9
Other
secto
rs63
%Agr
ibusin
ess
37%
9
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ECONOMIC GROWTH
10
AGRICULTURE: RESOURCES TO FUND DEVELOPMENT
INCOME TRANSFERENCE AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY
IMPOVERISHMENT OF PEOPLE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
Design: SEAPA
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PARADIGM SHIFT
NATURAL RESOURCES
DEMAND OF FOOD ENERGY FIBERS
PRODUCTION SYSTEM
HUMAN ACTIONS
SOCIETY
RURAL PRODUCER
NATURAL RESOURCES
DEMAND OF FOOD, ENERGY, FIBERS, ENVIRONMENTAL
GOODS AND SERVICES
MANAGER OF THE RURAL AREA
HUMAN ACTIONS
SOCIETY
RURAL PRODUCER
PARADIGM OF PRODUCTIVITY PARADIGM OF SUSTAINABILITY
11Design: SEAPA
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NEW DEMANDS OF THE CONTEMPORARY SOCIETY
12
COMBINATION OF THE DESIRE FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE ETHICAL
NEED FOR THE MITIGATION OF POVERTY, WITH SUSTAINABLE
PRODUCTION
ECONOMIC GROWTH
POVERTY MITIGATION
SUSTAINABLEPRODUCTION
12Design: SEAPA
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OUTROS ESTADOS
MG
13
MANAGERS OF THE RURAL AREARESPONSIBLE FOR THE GENERATION OF
SOIL CONSERVATION
Elaboração: SEAPA
FOOD AND FIBERS
RICHNESS
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
ENERGY
ENVIRONMENTAL GOODS ANDS SERVICES
BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
CO2 REMOVAL
WATER PRODUCTION AND QUALITY
JOBS
CULTURAL GOODS AND VALUES13Design: SEAPA
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14
MANAGERS OF THE RURAL AREARISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES
Elaboração: SEAPA
CLIMATE CHANGES
14Design: SEAPA
RURAL INSURANCE
MINIMUM PRICE POLICY
NATIONAL PLAN OF IRRIGATION
TECHNOLOGY ADJUSTMENT – NEW VARIETIES
PRODUCTION SYSTEMS – MITIGATION OF IMPACTS
INDICATORS OF LIQUID ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES– AGRICULTURAL INCOME
CONFRONTATION POLICY
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15
MINAS GERAIS SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE
15Design: SEAPA
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CERTIFICATION OF THE ADEQUACY OF
COFFEE-PRODUCING
PROPERTIES TO GOOD PRODUCTION PRACTICES,
IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE DEMANDS
OF THE WORLD MARKET,
ALLOWING THE COFFEE PRODUCED
IN MINAS GERAIS TO REACH NEW MARKETS.
. 2009: 1.026 CERTIFIED PROPERTIES
CERTIFICA MINASINCREASED PRESENCE OF THE AGRIBUSINESS OF MINAS GERAIS
TO MEET THE DEMANDS OF NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
PROJECTS – COORDINATION AND EXECUTION: Seapa/IMA /Emater - MG
16Design: SEAPA
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Elaboração: Seapa
CERTIFICA MINASINCREASED PRESENCE OF THE AGRIBUSINESS OF MINAS GERAIS TO MEET THE DEMANDS OF THE
NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
BOVINE CATTLE RAISING - TRACING ASSURANCE OF BEEF SAFETY, WITH THE ADDITION OF VALUE TO THE PRODUCT
2009: 1.757 PROPERTIES ABLE TO PROVIDE ANIMALS FOR EXPORT SLAUGHTERHOUSES
PROJECTS – COORDINATION AND EXECUTION: Seapa/IMA /Emater - MG17Design: SEAPA
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FOREST DEVELOPMENTPROMOTION OF THE CULTIVATION OF FORESTS PLANTED IN RURAL PROPERTIES,
AIMING AT INTEGRATING AGRICULTURAL AND CATTLE RAISING ACTIVITIES
INTEGRATION OF CROP – CATTLE RAISING – FOREST
INTEGRATION OF AGRICULTURAL AND CATTLE RAISING ACTIVITIESIN THE SAME AREA, COMBINING SEVERAL TYPES OF
PLANTED FOREST, PASTURE AND GRAINS.
2008 - 2009: 230 DEMONSTRATIVE UNITS INSTALLED
PROJECTS – COORDINATION AND EXECUTION: Seapa/IMA /Emater - MG
Elaboração: Seapa 18
2009: 885 DEMONSTRATIVE UNITS INSTALLED
18Design: SEAPA
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STATE OFFICE FOR AGRICULTURE, CATTLE RAISING AND SUPPLY
Rua Cláudio Manoel, 1205, Belo Horizonte – MGCEP: 30140 -100
1919