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TRANSCRIPT
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Agrometeorology and
Sustainable Development
Agrometeorological services
to prepare farmers
for climate extremes and climate use
Part 1.
What is sustainable development?
C.J. Stigter, Agromet Vision
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1.1 What is sustainable development?
The idea of the inventory of best
practices could be found in
WMO’s Annual Report 2004:
“Sustainable development
in the information age”.
“Information age” sounds good,
but “what information for whom”?
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CNN gives information, newspapers
give information, but we need
information useful for farmers etc..
We must produce information that
different categories of users need!
However, availability of information
also demands transfer and absorption.
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Transfer demands suitable means,
adapted to the users’ possibilities.
Absorption demands client friendliness
of the products and education.
Means of communication & education
are part of sustainable development.
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Sustainable development means
socio-economic progress
of large parts of a population,
including the poorer layers,
without wrecking the future.
This asks for general education
as well as
for special extension education.
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1. 2 Role of agricultural meteorology?
The WMO Annual Report
is symptomatic in reporting that
interrelationships of weather, climate,
agriculture and farmers did not yet
belong to the primary areas of activity
although information applications did.
I will spend much time in explaining!!
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At least this WMO Annual report said:
there is a need to improve
agrometeorological services, both
to enhance production
and to conserve the environment.
An INSAM attempt to collect
best examples was initially
not very successful.
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Preferably we use the
expression:
“agrometeorological
services to prepare farmers
for climate extremes and
climate use”.
This is closer to reality!
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Sustainable development
in agricultural meteorology
would mean the existence of
agrometeorological services
to establish best practices
of risk preparedness reducing losses
as routine operational activities.
This means in practice dealing with
“response farming” in all its forms.
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So, sustainable development
starts with:
•••• Adequate understanding of the
information needs of intended users as
decision makers
•••• Consideration of the conditions of
farming systems and farmers for the
absorption and use of climate (forecast)
information in the long run
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In this context one has to realize
that most resilience to disasters
was built up
from local adaptive strategies
to cope with climate variability,
based on traditional knowledge
and indigenous technology.
This will also be a cornerstone
of the approach we advocate.
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1.3 What about the role of research?
Level and scale of basic and applied
research and the use that is made of
their results, locally or elsewhere,
greatly differ between countries.
They particularly differ
between industrialized and
non-industrialized countries.
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This applies also to agriculture where
agricultural meteorology and agricultural meteorology and
agroclimatologyagroclimatology
played and play a most often
protective role with respect
to yield formation and yield (to be)
harvested and concerning
the resource base made use of.
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Translated to our fields of work,
this especially means
that in developing countries:
no “extension agrometeorology” or
“extension agroclimatology”
were developed to assist
this majority of marginal farmers
in the design
of their production systems.
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To a large extent
only richer farmers
are able to make use
of whatever support systems
are organized
while the majority of marginal
farmers are left in misery.
[Details in paper on Chinese results.]
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Socialization of agrometeorology Socialization of agrometeorology
means that policy matters of means that policy matters of
farmer oriented farmer oriented action support systems, action support systems, policy support options andpolicy support options andcapacity building strategies capacity building strategies should get attention. should get attention.
Opportunities Opportunities
for agrometeorological services for agrometeorological services
to farmers to farmers
should be the guiding principle.should be the guiding principle.
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For each of these three For each of these three
farmer oriented policy fields, farmer oriented policy fields,
we shouldwe should ““prioritizeprioritize””
agrometeorological aspects agrometeorological aspects
of how to cope operationally of how to cope operationally
with risks and uncertainties from with risks and uncertainties from
and preparedness for and preparedness for
four distinct subjects.four distinct subjects.
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(i) extreme events (i) extreme events
and their consequences and their consequences
caused by meteorological caused by meteorological
and climatological and climatological
disasters on all time disasters on all time
scales, including related scales, including related
aversion attempts; aversion attempts;
(ii) pests and diseases, (ii) pests and diseases,
including countervailing including countervailing
measures;measures;
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(iii) trying to use (iii) trying to use
beneficial climate and weatherbeneficial climate and weather
andand
(iv) applications of (iv) applications of
agrometeorological services agrometeorological services
themselves. themselves.
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Agrometeorological services Agrometeorological services
are exemplified byare exemplified by
agroclimatological agroclimatological
characterization, characterization,
design of design of
microclimate management microclimate management
and manipulation, and manipulation,
weather forecasting (including weather forecasting (including
agrometeorological forecasting) agrometeorological forecasting)
and climate prediction,and climate prediction,
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proposals of response farming, proposals of response farming,
crop insurance and crop insurance and
other advisories other advisories
prepared for and by farmers prepared for and by farmers
in the previous three in the previous three
farmer oriented policy fields.farmer oriented policy fields.
For this to be possible, For this to be possible,
participative participative
needs assessments needs assessments
should come first.should come first.
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Further environmental
deterioration and alienating poverty
are often a consequence
of that absence of focused assistance,
where traditional knowledge and
indigenous technology
can no longer cope
with the dynamics of environmental
and other changes.
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So this is the opposite of sustainability!
Society as a whole must want to focus on
rural as well as industrial development.
This means change and support of changes
that most people can bear.
No policies, no cure, also in research!!
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Mainly due to the recent awareness
of increasingly extreme weather and
climate phenomena
and their repercussions on
rural areas and their production,
agricultural meteorology in general
and agricultural meteorology
of extreme events in particular
suddenly got to
the center of attention.
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However, no applied fields of
meteorology/climatology
were so unprepared for a shift in were so unprepared for a shift in
appreciation and importanceappreciation and importance
than agricultural meteorology
and agricultural climatology.
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Environmental concerns were already
rising when consequences of increasing
climate variability and climate change
were striking hard.
As agrometeorologists we could only
very partially cope with these new
demands, mainly because of the
virtually non-existence of suitable
agrometeorological services.
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There is a general lack of attention of
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
in developing countries for agrometeorology in general
and agrometeorological services in particular.
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1.4 Can development be sustainable
when the climate is not sustainable?
Climate change and Climate change and
increasing climate variabilityincreasing climate variability
may seriously complicate may seriously complicate
sustainable development.sustainable development.
New or adapted preparedness strategies
have to be developed as responses!
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But once response farming is aimed
at, this remains the same approach
but to more varying conditions.
Principles, organization, role of
research & communication
infrastructure, education and
extension approaches etc. etc.
will not differ,
but may be complicated by change.
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Response farming is a method
of identifying and quantifying,
statistically or otherwise,
seasonal rainfall variability and
(un)predictability and related risks,
addressing these risks at the farm level.
The hypothesis is The hypothesis is
that solutions to farming problems that solutions to farming problems
may be found by improved forecasting may be found by improved forecasting
of expected rainfall behaviour of expected rainfall behaviour
in the cropping season(s).in the cropping season(s).
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Response farming means adapting
cropping to the ongoing rainy season
by guidance of agronomic operations,
using experiences of the past,
preferably from interpretations of
meteorological rainfall records,
with support from
traditional expert knowledge
where available.
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We are talking here about
onsets of rains, total amounts,
durations (patchiness, including dry
spells and their lengths),
rainfall intensities,
frequencies of rain days,
average daily rates of precipitation,
distributions of rainfall over the seasons,
ceasing of rains etc.,
that appear to be of interest to farmers.
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Given the indications for
increasing climate variability
and change of the climate
in terms of rainfall,
this will have to be adapted
to those new conditions,
limiting the period in the past
over which the experience can be used,
and adapting the information
to local soils and topography.
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Response farming was initially limited
to rainfall events,
but coping with
weather and climate
(and often soil) disasters
as well as using
windows of weather and climate
(and often soil) opportunities
are other forms of responding to weather
and climate (and often soil) realities.
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Services such as in advices on design rules on above and below ground microclimate management or manipulation, with respect to any appreciable microclimatic improvement: shading, wind protection, mulching,
other surface modification, drying,
storage, frost protection etc.
belong to such “response farming”agrometeorological services.
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Climate variability refers to variability observed in the climate record
in periods when the state of the climate system
is not showing trends/large changes in climate normals:
(30 years still valid?).
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Instabilities increase variabilities.
If the climate state changes,
which is usually characterized
by a change in means (normal!),
then the frequency
of formerly rare events,
on the side the mean has shifted to,
may increase,
causing increasing climate variability that is seen
as an indicator for climate change.
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Climate change is a movement
in the climate system
because of internal changes
within the climate system or
in the interaction of its components;
or because of change
in external forcing,
either by natural factors,
or anthropogenic activities.
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For the first time only in 1998WMO reported on warming trends,
with proof for climate change and its continuation.
This was observed
from Arctic and Antarctic sea ice; from lake ice appearance days
and earlier ice breakup days, particularly in European Russia,
the Ukraine and Baltic countries.
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Shrinking of mountain glaciers during the 20th century
and the increase of permafrost temperatures also occur in many areas.
The latter phenomenon gives a dangerous positive feedback
by bringing more CO2
into the atmosphere.
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If the Himalayas continue
to receive less winter snow,
the Arabian Sea will become
a chimney for nitrous oxide.
Also that positive feedback, due to
stronger winds and upwelling water
in which nitrous oxide is produced,
could induce climate change
much worse than anticipated.
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Now, if climate changes in several points,
it changes everywhere!!!In developing a
response farming approach
with forecasting capabilities
that change and improve
in the course of time,
this can be tried to get met.
It is a condition for sustainable development.
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Society as a whole Society as a whole
must want to focus must want to focus
on rural on rural
as well as industrial as well as industrial
developmentdevelopment..
The latter, however, has, The latter, however, has, after all, to be after all, to be of a completely of a completely
new and different approach.new and different approach.
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Conclusions from Part 1:
• Means of communication & education are part of sustainable development.
• To a large extent only richer farmers are able to make use of whatever support systems are organized while the majority of marginal farmers are left in misery.
• Developing a response farming approach with forecasting capabilities that change and improve in the course of time, is a condition for sustainable development.
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Recommendations from Part 1:
• Use the expression “agrometeorological services to prepare
farmers for climate extremes and climate use” because it is
closest to reality.
• New or adapted preparedness strategies have to be
developed as responses to increasing climate variability, but
once response farming is aimed at, this remains the same
approach but to more varying conditions.
• Society as a whole must want to focus on rural as well as
industrial development. The latter, however, has to be, after
all, of a completely new and different approach.