agrometeorological stations and weather and climate forecasts
TRANSCRIPT
Agrometeorological stations and weather and climate forecasts
Arturo Corrales SuasteguiMiguel Angel Gonzalez Gonzalez
Mario P. Narváez Mendoza
December 15, 2013
• National Agrometeorological Network
• Climate Forecast
• Meteorological Forecast (WRF)
• References
Outline
• Over 1,000 Agrometeorological stations in 29 states in Mexico
• Information stored every 15 minutes of meteorological variables, such as:
Temperature Precipitation Wind speed and direction Global radiation
• Data Collected in the Laboratorio Nacional de Modelaje y Sensores Remotos (INIFAP)
National Agrometeorological Network
National Agrometeorological Network
Posting:
• Data in real time Internet Web site:http://clima.inifap.gob.mx
• Processed Data Weather and climate maps Agrometeorological applications
(units heat, cold hours, etc.)
• Leaflets
• Android and IOS apps (1st demo)
National Agrometeorological Network
• Statistical model
• Canonical correlation analysis
• Predictants (11 oceanic-
atmospheric variables)
Predictors (Monthly precipitation
and frost days)
• 640 weather stations (Monthly
historical number of days with
temperature <2 °C and Monthly
precipitation data, 1961-2008)
Climate Model:
Climate Forecast
Date of releaseMontly Outlook (anomalies)
1 2 3
September 24th, 2013
October 24th, 2013
November 24th, 2013
December 20th, 2013
Climate Outlooks (Precipitation)
Climate Forecast
Climate Model – Hindcasts:
• Point evaluation: same point
forecasted vs same point registered
• Simulation of monthly historical
forecasts (1961-2008)
• Historical and simulated montlhy data
transformed to terciles
• Tercile simulated vs Tercile registered
by contingency table ( Hanssen
Kuipers Skill Score) for each weather
station
BN=Below normalN= NormalAN= Above normal
BN-N-AN
Climate Forecast
Forecast releaseOutlook month
1 2 3
24 April 2013 0.60 0.45 0.39
24 May 2013 0.44 0.41 0.44
24 Jun 2013 0.41 0.46 0.54
24 July 2013 0.46 0.65 0.51
23 August 2013 0.58 0.57
24 September 2013 0.62
Mean 0.48 0.49 0.47
Overall Hanssen-Kuipers Skill Score 0.48
Monthly Outlook
Climate Model - Hindcast for the Rainy Season in Mexico:
Climate Forecast
WRF model (1 to 5 days forecasts):
• January 2012:
WRF was implemented in INIFAP in order to support the
information needs of forecasts for agricultural regions
• December 2012:
Experimental stage runnings and validation process
Meteorological Forecast
WRF-EMS:
• WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS), developed by NWS Science Operations Officer (SOO) Science and Training Resource Center (STRC)
http://strc.comet.ucar.edu/index.htm
• Incorporates both dynamical cores on a single forecasting model (Rozulmalski, 2006)
• The software consists of pre-compiled programs that are easy to install and run. The WRF EMS contains the full physics options available for the ARW and NMM cores (Watson, 2007)
Meteorological Forecast
Model Configuration:Simulation Length 120 Hours
Boundry Update Freq 03 Hours
Dynamics Non-Hydrostatic
Cumulus Scheme Betts-Miller-Janjic
Microphysics Scheme Milbrandt-Yau
PBL Scheme Mellor-Yamada-Janjic
Land Surface Scheme Noah 4-Layer LSM
Surface Layer Physics Monin-Obukhov (Janjic)
Long Wave Radiation RRTM
Short Wave Radiation Dudhia Scheme
Forecast period of 120 hours (5 days)
Single domain with a horizontal spatial resolution of 13 km and a vertical structure of 35 levels
Initial conditions were obtained from the Global Forecast System (GFS)
Meteorological Forecast
Evaluation:
• Period: July 2012 through February 2013
• Evaluation points from the National Agrometeorological Network
• Selected stations within a radius of 6 km respect to its closest point of the grid.
• 386 stations selected to validate the WRF model
• It was assumed that the grid points and stations were found at the same altitude above sea level
Meteorological Forecast
Statistical results of the average of all points evaluated from July 2012 through February 2013:
Variable analyzed
Simulation day MAE (mm) ME (mm) RMSE (mm) CC
Precipitation
1 2.26 -0.17 6.25 0.35
2 2.32 -0.11 6.41 0.34
3 2.44 -0.05 6.76 0.29
4 2.47 -0.06 6.82 0.28
5 2.61 0.05 7.21 0.23
Simulation
day MAE (°C) ME (°C) RMSE (°C) CC
Temperature
1 2.81 1.68 3.41 0.76
2 2.75 1.61 3.36 0.74
3 2.69 1.45 3.31 0.73
4 2.68 1.4 3.3 0.72
5 2.71 1.35 3.35 0.72
Meteorological Forecast
Precipitation. Day 1: ME (Mean Error):
Meteorological Forecast
Tmin. Day 1: ME:
Meteorological Forecast
http://clima.inifap.gob.mx
References
Rozulmalski, R., 2006: WRF Environmental Modeling System User’s Guide. NOAA/NWS SOO Science and Training Resource Coordinator Forecast Decision Training Branch, 89 pp. [Available from COMET/UCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307-3000]
Watson, L. R. 2007. Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation. NASA Contractor Report, NASA/CR-2007–214734, 43 pp
Corrales-Suastegui, A., González-Jasso, L.A., Narváez-Mendoza, M.P., González-González, M.A., Osuna-Ceja, E.S., Ruíz-Álvarez, O. y Maciel-Pérez, L.H. 2013. Generación y evaluación estadística del pronóstico de lluvia a cinco días. Folleto Técnico No. 53. Instituto Nacional
de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias. Centro de Investigación Regional
Norte Centro, Campo Experimental Pabellón. Pabellón de Arteaga, Ags. México. 23p.
ISBN: 978-607-37-0227-0
Gonzalez-González, M., Ramos-Gonzalez, J.L., Baez-González, A. D. 2009. Validation of a forecasting method for monthly rainfall in Mexico. Universidad y Ciencia, 25(2):187-192