plantation intelligence analysis of commercial data for
TRANSCRIPT
OBERTHÜR, ThomasDirector South East Asia Program, International Plant Nutrition Institute
Plantation Intelligence®
Analysis of Commercial Data for Yield and Fertilizer Management in Oil Palm
Conceptual Background
IPNI 4R Nutrient Stewardship ®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Decision Making Uncertainty
Complex interactions in an agronomic system render outcomes of any management
decision
Uncertain
®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
STRUCTURAL Uncertainty from internal factors that influence fertilizer efficiency, e.g. EFB applications
TRANSLATIONALUncertainty from external factors that reduce fertilizer performance, e.g. harvest, mill and transport efficiency
TEMPORALUncertainty about
timing of fertilizer applications, e.g.
drought interference
METRIC Uncertainty about rate & placement of
fertilizer to support a yield target
Cook et al. Better Crops 97, 17 - 20 (2013)
Decision Making Uncertainty
Example:
ROI in Fertilizer
®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Hans Peter Luhn, IBM Journal, 1958A Business Intelligence System
http://www.bireports.co.uk/blog/tag/hans-peter-luhn/
(business) intelligence is “the ability to apprehend the interrelationships of presented facts in such a way as to guide action towards a desired goal.”
Business Intelligence ®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
http://www.bireports.co.uk/blog/tag/hans-peter-luhn/
Business Intelligence ®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
System is Monitored in Extraordinary Detail
Plantation Intelligence® ®
Devisespecific
performance intervention
options(EVALUATE)
Organizeexisting
performance data
(VISUALIZE)
Quantify performance change for
management (DECIDE)
Generate performance
indicators and metrics
(ANALYSE)
Plantation Intelligence®
Exogenous
Exogenous
®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Plantation Intelligence®
An adaptive learning process
based on the analysis of
plantation data
®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
MeasurePerformance
PlantationIntelligence®
Business Opportunity
PALMSIMModel
Continuous Improvement
Best Management Practices
EstateNetworking
TheBenchmark Club
Plantation Intelligence® ®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Application Examples
Current Protocols
Yield AgeProfiling
Naïve Gross Margins
Yield Trends Yield Soil ClimateInteractions
Yield Labor Interactions
Yield SoilInteractions
Fertilizer ResponseAnalyses
®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
0
40
30
20
50
60
3 4 11975 13 14 15
10
6 8 10 12 TREEAGE
FFB
(t/h
a)
Yield Age Profiling ®
TREEAGE0
40
30
20
50
60
10
FFB
(t/h
a)
3 4 11975 13 146 8 10 12
Yield Age Profiling
15
®
TREEAGE
PALMSIM ModelAgricultural Systems, 131:1-10 (2014)The Planter, 91: 81-96 (2015)
0
40
30
20
50
60
10
FFB
(t/h
a)
3 4 11975 13 146 8 10 12
Yield Benchmarking
15
1. Average yield profile mirrors that of potential
2. Yield gap between average and potential
3. Blocks approach yield potential
4. Blocks above potential require further assessment
®
Aver
age
naïv
e gr
oss
mar
gin
in U
SD
per
hec
tare
Individual Block0
4000
3000
2000
5000
1000
3500
2500
1500
4500
5500
500
Naïve Gross Margins
Cost = 500 $US per ha per year“i.e. a favorable benchmark”
®
Aver
age
naïv
e gr
oss
mar
gin
in U
SD
per
hec
tare
Individual Block0
4000
3000
2000
5000
1000
3500
2500
1500
4500
5500
500
Naïve Gross Margins ®
Aver
age
naïv
e gr
oss
mar
gin
in U
SD
per
hec
tare
Individual Block0
4000
3000
2000
5000
1000
3500
2500
1500
4500
5500
500
Naïve Gross Margins ®
Response to Fertilizer
NPKMg
8~10BREAK–EVEN
kg kg
point
fresh fruitbunches per kg nutrients
Return on Investment ®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
2.5 years to 0.5 year before harvestSum of NPKMg
Return on Investment
NPKMg
®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
20
15
10
25
30
100 300 1100900700500
5
600 800 1000 1200
NPKMg3yW_IN
Fres
h fru
it bu
nche
s in
tons
per
hec
tare
35
Steep Ascent : Palm age from 3-5
200 400
25
20
15
30
35
10
40
300 400 800700600500 550 650 750 850350 450
45
Fres
h fru
it bu
nche
s in
tons
per
hec
tare
NPKMg3yW_IN
y=22.233 + (0.005*x)y=12.908 + (0.011*x)
Plateau : Palm age from 6-13
Tree Age Effects ®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
10
34
30
26
22
18
14
Fres
h fru
it bu
nche
s in
tons
per
hec
tare
NPKMg3yW_IN
12
32
28
24
20
16
Annual Response 2012
360 400 640600560520480440340 380 620580540500460420 680660
®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
10
34
30
26
22
18
14
Fres
h fru
it bu
nche
s in
tons
per
hec
tare
NPKMg3yW_IN
12
32
28
24
20
16
Annual Response 2012
360 400 640600560520480440340 380 620580540500460420 680660
y=21.142 + (-0.003*x)
y=32.489 + (-0.015*x)y=14.481 + (0.024*x)
y=36.217 + (-0.022*x)
SMG ASMG BSMG CSMG D
®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
NPKMg3yW_IN
Annual Response 2014
8
30
26
22
18
14
12
32
28
24
20
16
10
34
360 400 600560520480440340 380 620580540500460420
Fres
h fru
it bu
nche
s in
tons
per
hec
tare
®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
NPKMg3yW_IN
Annual Response 2014
8
30
26
22
18
14
12
32
28
24
20
16
10
34
360 400 600560520480440340 380 620580540500460420
Fres
h fru
it bu
nche
s in
tons
per
hec
tare
y=3.256 + (0.036*x)
y=50.634 + (-0.054*x)y=13.470 + (0.025*x)y=13.972 + (0.025*x)
SMG ASMG BSMG CSMG D
®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Yield Response (t FFB ha y) = F1 (PV1, PV2, … PVN, PVNPKMg)Yield Response (t FFB ha y) = F2 (PV1, PV2, … PVN)Response Contrast (t FFB ha y) = F2 – F1
Visualizing Local Response
‘Contrast Method’
®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
2013 2014
Visualizing Local Response
1.40
0.00
-0.75
Contrast in t FFB per ha per year relative to yield
without fertilizer
®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
2013 2014
Visualizing Local Response
1.40
0.00
-0.75
Contrast in t FFB per ha per year relative to yield
without fertilizer
®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
“Disclaimer”
10
15
5
30
25
20
40
35
15 4525 355 10 20 30 40
45
50
55
Harvest Man days
Fres
h Fr
uit B
unch
Yie
ld in
t pe
r ha
20032004200520062006200720082009201020112012
Confounding Effects ®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
10
15
5
30
25
20
40
35
15 4525 355 10 20 30 40
45
50
55
Expected yield level
Fres
h Fr
uit B
unch
Yie
ld in
t pe
r ha
20032004200520062006200720082009201020112012
Harvest Man days
Confounding Effects ®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
10
15
5
30
25
20
40
35
15 4525 355 10 20 30 40
45
50
55
Fruit is grown but not harvested
Only with enough labor, all fruit is harvested
Expected yield level
Fres
h Fr
uit B
unch
Yie
ld in
t pe
r ha
20032004200520062006200720082009201020112012
Harvest Man days
Confounding Effects ®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
VS.
Yield Taken
Yield MadeEXPECTATION
REALITY
Confounding Effects ®
OberthÜr et al.IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
4WA
IPNI Southeast Asia Program
IFA Crossroads Asia-Pacific20-22 October 2015
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia