permanent tsb p.l.c. · 10/8/2019  · permanent tsb p.l.c. (consolidated financials) [1] 06-192...

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FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 8 October 2019 Update RATINGS Permanent tsb p.l.c. Domicile Dublin, Ireland Long Term CRR Baa1 Type LT Counterparty Risk Rating - Fgn Curr Outlook Not Assigned Long Term Debt Baa3 Type Senior Unsecured - Dom Curr Outlook Positive Long Term Deposit Baa3 Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr Outlook Positive Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Contacts Arif Bekiroglu +44.20.7772.1713 VP-Senior Analyst [email protected] Ines Antunes +44.20.7772.1744 Associate Analyst [email protected] Laurie Mayers +44.20.7772.5582 Associate Managing Director [email protected] Nick Hill +33.1.5330.1029 MD-Banking [email protected] Permanent tsb p.l.c. Update to credit analysis Summary Permanent tsb p.l.c. 's (PTSB's) deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings are Baa3/P-3, positive and Permanent TSB Group Holdings plc 's (PTSB Holdings') long-term issuer rating is Ba3/positive and senior unsecured debt rating Ba3/positive . These ratings reflect (1) the bank's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) of ba2; (2) the results of our Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis, resulting in one notch of uplift from the BCA for both deposits and senior unsecured debt, and one notch of downward adjustment on PTSB Holdings' issuer rating; and (3) our expectation of a moderate level of government support, which provides an additional uplift to both deposit and senior bank debt ratings. PTSB's Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessment is Baa1(cr)/P-2(cr) and its Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs) are Baa1/P-2. The outlook on PTSB's deposit and debt ratings, and PTSB Holdings' issuer rating is positive. PTSB’s BCA of ba2 reflects the bank's (1) moderate asset risk, stemming from its improved but still large stock of forborne and nonperforming loans (NPLs); (2) low reliance on wholesale funding, which will only increase to a moderate level; (3) sound capital and liquidity metrics; and (4) low profitability, which remains structurally weaker than that of its larger and more diversified peers. The positive outlook on PTSB's long-term senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings and on PTSB Holdings' issuer rating reflects the potential upside for the bank's BCA. In addition, the issuance of senior unsecured debt by PTSB Holdings over the next 12-18 months and beyond could drive a further upgrade of PTSB's senior debt and deposit ratings. Exhibit 1 Rating Scorecard - Key financial ratios 18.3% 15.9% 0.2% 12.2% 17.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Asset Risk: Problem Loans/ Gross Loans Capital: Tangible Common Equity/Risk-Weighted Assets Profitability: Net Income/ Tangible Assets Funding Structure: Market Funds/ Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources: Liquid Banking Assets/Tangible Banking Assets Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS) PTSB (BCA: ba2) Median ba2-rated banks Solvency Factors Liquidity Factors Source: Moody's Investors Service

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Page 1: Permanent tsb p.l.c. · 10/8/2019  · Permanent tsb p.l.c. (Consolidated Financials) [1] 06-192 12-182 12-172 12-162 12-152 CAGR/Avg.3 ... Company Filings Profile Permanent tsb p.l.c

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

CREDIT OPINION8 October 2019

Update

RATINGS

Permanent tsb p.l.c.Domicile Dublin, Ireland

Long Term CRR Baa1

Type LT Counterparty RiskRating - Fgn Curr

Outlook Not Assigned

Long Term Debt Baa3

Type Senior Unsecured -Dom Curr

Outlook Positive

Long Term Deposit Baa3

Type LT Bank Deposits - FgnCurr

Outlook Positive

Please see the ratings section at the end of this reportfor more information. The ratings and outlook shownreflect information as of the publication date.

Contacts

Arif Bekiroglu +44.20.7772.1713VP-Senior [email protected]

Ines Antunes +44.20.7772.1744Associate [email protected]

Laurie Mayers +44.20.7772.5582Associate Managing [email protected]

Nick Hill [email protected]

Permanent tsb p.l.c.Update to credit analysis

SummaryPermanent tsb p.l.c.'s (PTSB's) deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings are Baa3/P-3,positive and Permanent TSB Group Holdings plc's (PTSB Holdings') long-term issuer ratingis Ba3/positive and senior unsecured debt rating Ba3/positive. These ratings reflect (1) thebank's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) of ba2; (2) the results of our Advanced Loss GivenFailure (LGF) analysis, resulting in one notch of uplift from the BCA for both deposits andsenior unsecured debt, and one notch of downward adjustment on PTSB Holdings' issuerrating; and (3) our expectation of a moderate level of government support, which providesan additional uplift to both deposit and senior bank debt ratings. PTSB's Counterparty Risk(CR) Assessment is Baa1(cr)/P-2(cr) and its Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs) are Baa1/P-2.The outlook on PTSB's deposit and debt ratings, and PTSB Holdings' issuer rating is positive.

PTSB’s BCA of ba2 reflects the bank's (1) moderate asset risk, stemming from its improvedbut still large stock of forborne and nonperforming loans (NPLs); (2) low reliance onwholesale funding, which will only increase to a moderate level; (3) sound capital andliquidity metrics; and (4) low profitability, which remains structurally weaker than that of itslarger and more diversified peers.

The positive outlook on PTSB's long-term senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings and onPTSB Holdings' issuer rating reflects the potential upside for the bank's BCA. In addition, theissuance of senior unsecured debt by PTSB Holdings over the next 12-18 months and beyondcould drive a further upgrade of PTSB's senior debt and deposit ratings.

Exhibit 1

Rating Scorecard - Key financial ratios

18.3%

15.9%

0.2%

12.2%

17.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Asset Risk:Problem Loans/

Gross Loans

Capital:Tangible Common

Equity/Risk-WeightedAssets

Profitability:Net Income/

Tangible Assets

Funding Structure:Market Funds/

Tangible BankingAssets

Liquid Resources:Liquid Banking

Assets/TangibleBanking Assets

Solvency Factors (LHS) Liquidity Factors (RHS)

PTSB (BCA: ba2) Median ba2-rated banks

So

lve

ncy F

acto

rs

Liq

uid

ity F

acto

rs

Source: Moody's Investors Service

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Credit strengths

» Sound capital levels, which are still susceptible to asset stress

» Moderate level of high-quality liquid resources

» Primarily deposit funded, with wholesale funding reliance likely to increase to a moderate level after the issuance of more holdingcompany debt

» Improving asset risk as NPLs are cleaned up through sales and other means

Credit challenges

» Weak asset risk, constrained by a still large stock of nonperforming, forborne and negative equity mortgages

» Low profitability, which remains structurally weaker than that of its larger and more diversified Irish peers

OutlookThe positive outlook on PTSB's long-term senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings and on PTSB Holdings' issuer rating reflects thepotential upside for the bank's BCA. In addition, the issuance of senior unsecured debt by PTSB Holdings over the next 12-18 monthsand beyond could drive a further upgrade of PTSB's senior debt and deposit ratings.

Factors that could lead to an upgrade

» PTSB's long-term debt and deposit ratings and PTSB Holdings' issuer rating could be upgraded as a result of (1) an upgrade of PTSB'sstandalone BCA; or (2) a significant increase in the bank's bail-in-able debt, compared with its tangible banking assets.

» PTSB's BCA could be upgraded if the bank (1) continues to improve its asset-risk metrics, and (2) shows a sustained improvement inits profitability.

Factors that could lead to a downgrade

» A downgrade of PTSB's ratings is currently unlikely, given the positive outlook. However, the ratings could be downgraded as a resultof a downgrade of its BCA. PTSB Holdings' issuer rating could be downgraded following a downgrade of PTSB's BCA.

» PTSB's BCA could be downgraded because of (1) an unexpected significant deterioration in the bank's capital, (2) a reversal in theimproving profitability trend, or (3) a deterioration in its asset quality and provisioning coverage.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 8 October 2019 Permanent tsb p.l.c.: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Key indicators

Exhibit 2

Permanent tsb p.l.c. (Consolidated Financials) [1]06-192 12-182 12-172 12-162 12-152 CAGR/Avg.3

Total Assets (EUR Million) 20,476.0 21,810.0 22,773.0 23,604.0 29,324.0 (9.8)4

Total Assets (USD Million) 23,318.0 24,932.0 27,345.8 24,896.4 31,854.5 (8.5)4

Tangible Common Equity (EUR Million) 1,705.4 1,689.8 1,825.4 1,805.4 2,060.9 (5.3)4

Tangible Common Equity (USD Million) 1,942.1 1,931.7 2,191.9 1,904.2 2,238.8 (4.0)4

Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) 10.0 10.0 25.7 27.4 23.6 19.45

Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) 15.9 13.5 16.6 16.2 14.5 15.46

Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) 60.5 61.2 129.8 136.4 128.1 103.25

Net Interest Margin (%) 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.55

PPI / Average RWA (%) 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.76

Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.25

Cost / Income Ratio (%) 79.0 80.5 77.2 82.9 84.7 80.95

Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 4.6 12.2 15.5 18.5 27.8 15.75

Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 19.0 17.7 15.8 15.8 16.0 16.95

Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) 96.9 99.4 121.0 125.8 138.6 116.35

[1]All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments. [2]Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; IFRS. [3]May include rounding differences due to scaleof reported amounts. [4]Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) based on time period presented for the latest accounting regime. [5]Simple average of periods presented for the latestaccounting regime. [6]Simple average of Basel III periods presented.Source: Moody's Investors Service; Company Filings

ProfilePermanent tsb p.l.c. (PTSB), formerly Irish Life & Permanent Plc, is an Irish retail bank based in Dublin. It is 75% owned by theGovernment of Ireland (A2 stable). Its products and services include deposit accounts, current accounts, personal loans, mortgages andcredit cards. As of 30 June 2019, PTSB's asset share among Irish credit institutions was 3.2% (based on its total consolidated assets of€20.5 billion) and its reported mortgage market share was 14.7%.

Irish Life & Permanent Plc was renamed Permanent tsb p.l.c. on 29 June 2012, after the sale of its Life and Pensions divisions (LifeGroup) to the Minister for Finance (acting on behalf of the Irish state). The sale proceeds were used to meet a €4 billion capitalrequirement, determined by the Central Bank of Ireland's Prudential Capital Assessment Review and Prudential Liquidity AssessmentReview. As of 30 June 2019, PTSB was wholly owned by Permanent TSB Group Holdings plc (PTSB Holdings), formerly known as IrishLife & Permanent Group Holdings Plc.

For further information on the bank's profile, see Permanent tsb p.l.c.: Key Facts and Statistics - H1 June 2019.

Detailed credit considerationsWeak asset risk constrained by a still large stock of nonperforming, forborne and negative equity mortgagesWe view PTSB's asset risk as weak and assign an Asset Risk score of ba3, three notches higher than the Macro-Adjusted score, and onenotch higher than the score corresponding to half-year 2019 data. This balances our expectation that asset quality will continue toimprove but also reflects the still high share of forborne loans and negative equity mortgages, which elevate asset risk.

In September 2019, the bank sold another NPL portfolio for €264 million, slightly more than half of the portfolio's gross book valueof €506 million. This sale will decrease PTSB's problem loan ratio to 7.2% of gross loans from 10% as of the end of June 2019, allother things being equal. The transfer of these loans is likely to happen in early 2020. PTSB is assessing further NPL initiatives to bringthe bank's NPL ratio to 5% by 2020, in accordance with the European Banking Authority's guidelines, which we believe is achievablethrough sales and other means.

The recent NPL sale follows PTSB significant progress in reducing its asset risk in recent years. Since the disposal of the UK portfolioin late 2016, PTSB has largely focused on its Irish retail and small and medium-sized enterprise customers. Furthermore, in 2018,PTSB sold an NPL portfolio, Project Glas, with a gross value of €2.1 billion and a net book value of €1.3 billion. It also entered into asecuritisation arrangement of an NPL portfolio, Project Glenbeigh, with a gross value of €1.3 billion and a net book value of €0.9 billion.

3 8 October 2019 Permanent tsb p.l.c.: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

These transactions supported the reduction in NPLs to €1.7 billion as of year-end 2018, a substantial decrease of 68% compared withNPLs of €5.3 billion as of year-end 2017. PTSB's balance sheet clean up is in line with the simiIar actions taken by its peers Allied IrishBanks, p.l.c. (AIB, A2 stable/A3 positive, baa3) in April and Bank of Ireland (BOI, A2 stable/A2 stable, baa3) earlier in the year.

Exhibit 3

The stock of problem loans decreased following the NPL sale, but remains high

6.2

7.9 8.3

6.1 5.9

5.3

1.7 1.7 1.2

18%

24%

27% 24%

27%

26%

10% 10%7.2%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 HY 2019 Pro-forma HY 2019

Problem loans, €billion (RHS) Problem loans % Gross loans (LHS)

Sources: Moody's Investors Service

In addition to its sizeable stock of NPLs, PTSB has a large portion of restructured (forborne) loans, which, in our view, have an increasedprobability of falling back into nonperformance in the event of macroeconomic problems. The bank reported €1.8 billion of loans,or 10.9% of gross loans, which were subject to some form of forbearance as of June 2019, in line with year-end 2018. Of these,€0.6 billion were not impaired. The share of negative equity mortgages was still high at 16%, down from 29% as of year-end 2017,benefiting from mortgage amortisation and appreciation of real estate prices.

In light of the recovery experienced so far, we believe PTSB maintains a good level of provisioning, the bank's loan-loss reserves/problem loans increased to 64% as of June 2019 from 43% as of December 2017.

Sound capital levels, which are still susceptible to asset stressWe view PTSB's capitalisation as sound and assign a Capital score of baa2, four notches below the Macro-Adjusted score. The assignedscore reflects the stress to capital and the elevated level of forborne loans, negative equity mortgages and the still-elevated ratioof NPLs to the sum of tangible common equity (TCE) and loan-loss reserves as well as the elevated tail risk in relation to the Irishconsumer confidence and economic activity due to prolonged uncertainties regarding Brexit.

Our view of PTSB's sound capitalisation levels takes into account the capital benefit from the sale of two NPL portfolios in 2018(Project Glas and Project Glenbeigh) and the one in September 2019. The pro forma fully loaded Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capitalratio is 14.7% versus the 14.4% reported as of the end of June 2019 (2018: 12.2%) and the total capital ratio is 16.1% (pro forma) versus15.8% (reported) (2018: 13.5%). The minimum CET1 and total capital requirements, with fully phased in capital buffers, are 11.45%1

and 14.95%, respectively. The bank meets these requirements. The increase in the reported capital ratios in June 2019 from thosein 2018 was mainly driven by the decrease in risk-weighted assets because of deleveraging of NPLs. The strengthened capital baseprovides a cushion and against the potential headwinds for revenues and asset quality from prolonged uncertainties regarding Brexit.

PTSB's ratio of problem loans to the sum of TCE and loan-loss reserves decreased substantially but continue to remain elevated at 60%as of June 2019, (2017: very weak 130%). It remains above the peer average and there is room for further improvement.

4 8 October 2019 Permanent tsb p.l.c.: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Exhibit 4

PTSB's capital levels are sound (CET1 ratio)

12.4%

15.0% 14.9% 15.0%

12.2%

14.4% 14.7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Jun-19 Pro-forma Jun-19

Pro forma figure is based on estimation of the capital benefit from NPL sales.Sources: Moody's Investors Service and PTSB's financial reports

Low profitability, which is structurally weaker than that of its larger and more diversified Irish peersWe view the profitability of PTSB as weak, and it remains structurally weaker than that of its larger and more diversified peers. Weassigned a Profitability score of b1, in line with the Macro-Adjusted score. We expect the improvement in PTSB's revenue generationfrom resumed loan growth to be moderated by the increase in funding cost from the issuance of minimum requirement for own fundsand eligible liabilities (MREL) debt and pressure on net interest margins due to low rates.

On a Moody's-adjusted basis, the bank reported a profit of €21 million for H1 2019 compared with €56 million for H1 2018, driven bylower income from NPLs, an 11% decrease in fees and commission income and a €5 million impairment charge. The bank's return ontangible assets was weak at 0.2% during H1 2019.

PTSB's net interest margin remained broadly stable at 1.69% for H1 2019, compared with 1.59% in H1 2018, which is weaker than thatof its peers because of the bank's limited diversification in non mortgage activities, relatively higher proportion of low-yielding trackermortgages (59% of the residential mortgage book as of June 2019) and the current low level of European Central Bank (ECB) rates. Thebank will have to issue around €1 billion wholesale debt by January 2021 to meet its MREL requirement of 25.8%, which is likely to leadto an overall increase in its funding costs.

Exhibit 5

Mortgages account for 97% of PTSB's loan book

Mortgages - Home loan74%

Mortgages - Buy-to-let23%

Commercial1% Consumer finance

2%

Source: PTSB's half-year 2019 interim report

Primarily deposit funded, with wholesale funding reliance likely to increase to a moderate level after the MREL issuanceWe view PTSB's market funding reliance as low and assign a Funding Structure score of baa1, one notch below the Macro-Adjustedscore, which reflects the projected MREL issuance.

5 8 October 2019 Permanent tsb p.l.c.: Update to credit analysis

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

PTSB has shifted towards a stronger retail funding base while reducing its reliance on wholesale funding. The bank's market funds totangible banking assets was 5% as of the end of June 2019, compared with 12% as of year-end 2018 and 16% as of year-end 2017. Thereduction was driven by the decrease in repos and accelerated redemption of a securitization during the year. The share of customerdeposits in total funding grew to 95% as of June 2019, up from 69% as of December 2015. These customer deposits are primarily retailsourced and considered more granular and stable. There was no ECB funding as of June 2019, compared with 7% in 2016 and 18% in2015. The gross loan-to-deposit ratio, while remaining higher compared with that of its peers, has improved in the past few years to97% as of June 2019, down from 121% as of December 2017 and 139% as of December 2015.

In September, PTSB successfully issued its inaugural €300million holding company (HoldCo) Senior MREL bond (Ba3 positive). Afterthe expected further issuances of HoldCo debt for MREL purposes, we expect the bank to maintain moderate reliance on marketfunding.

Moderate level of high-quality liquid resourcesWe assign a ba1 Liquid Resources score, one notch below the Macro-Adjusted score. The bank's liquid banking assets accounted for19% of its tangible banking assets as of the end of June 2019, compared with 18% in December 2018. The liquidity coverage ratio wasstrong at 186% as of June 2019. We expect the bank's liquid assets to reduce slightly, given the costs related to holding excess low-interest-bearing liquid assets at a time when the bank aims to improve its profitability.

Monoline business modelPTSB's Financial Profile score is ba1. However, we apply a downward qualitative adjustment through a one-notch negative adjustmentto the Business Diversification factor and assign a ba2 BCA. PTSB is now predominantly a mortgage lender with a monoline businessmodel. This elevates its earnings sensitivity to a stress in Ireland's residential mortgage market.

Environmental, social and governance considerationsIn line with our general view for the banking sector, PTSB has a low exposure to environmental risks. See our Environmental heatmapfor further information.

In terms of social considerations, PTSB paid a fine of €21 million during the first half of 2019 related to the Tracker MortgageExamination Review by the Central Bank of Ireland that concluded on May 2019. As of June 2019 the bank had recognised provisions of€30 million relating to legal and compliance issues. There is still a risk of further redress expenses over the outlook period as customerswho were impacted seek compensation, however PTSB believes that its current provisions are adequate to cover any future costsassociated with the Tracker Mortgage Examination.

Governance is highly relevant for PTSB, as it is to all banks in the industry. Corporate governance weaknesses can lead to adeterioration in a bank’s credit quality, while governance strengths can benefit its credit profile. Governance risks are largelyinternal rather than externally driven, and for PTSB, we do not have any particular governance concern. The bank’s risk governanceinfrastructure is adequate and has not shown any shortfall in recent years. Nonetheless, corporate governance remains a key creditconsideration and requires ongoing monitoring.

Support and structural considerationsLoss Given Failure (LGF) analysisPTSB is subject to the European Union's Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, which we consider to be an operational resolutionregime. We assume residual TCE of 3%, losses post-failure of 8% of tangible banking assets, a 25% runoff in junior wholesale depositsand a 5% runoff in preferred deposits. We assign a 25% probability to deposits being preferred to senior unsecured debt. These are inline with our standard assumptions. We assume that the junior proportion of PTSB's deposits is 10%, as the bank has a predominantlyretail deposit funding base.

Our Advanced LGF analysis indicates that PTSB's deposits are likely to face low loss given failure because of the loss absorptionprovided by subordinated debt, senior unsecured holding company debt and (potentially) by senior unsecured bank debt, if deposits aretreated preferentially in a resolution, as well as the substantial volume of deposits themselves. This results in a ba1 Preliminary RatingAssessment (PRA) for deposits, a one-notch uplift from the ba2 BCA (see Exhibit 6 - Debt Class section).

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

In addition, our Advanced LGF analysis indicates that PTSB's senior unsecured debt is likely to face low loss given failure because ofthe loss absorption provided by subordinated debt, senior unsecured holding company debt and (potentially) by deposits, if they aretreated pari passu in a resolution, as well as the volume of debt itself. This results in a ba1 PRA for senior unsecured debt, a one-notchuplift from the ba2 BCA (see Exhibit 6 - Debt Class section).

The senior unsecured debt issued by PTSB Holdings is likely to face high loss given failure because of the small amount of debtsubordinated to it. We assume that the holding company's senior obligations benefit from the subordination of both holding companyand bank-subordinated instruments. However, we believe that the holding company's senior unsecured debt is economically juniorto the bank's senior unsecured debt, based on our forward-looking view that the holding company's senior unsecured debt, althoughlegally pari passu to the bank's debt, will eventually fund debt which is contractually, structurally or statutorily subordinated to theoperating company's external senior debt. This results in a ba3 PRA for the senior unsecured debt issued by PTSB Holdings, one notchbelow the ba2 BCA (see Exhibit 6 - Debt Class section).

PTSB's subordinated debt programme is rated (P)Ba3 and its junior subordinated programme is rated (P)B1, one and two notches belowthe bank's BCA, respectively. These ratings reflect their high expected loss severity in the event of the bank's failure and the additionalcoupon risk on the junior subordinated debt.

Government support considerationsPTSB is subject to European Union's Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, and we believe that there is a moderate probability ofgovernment support, given the bank's systemic importance in Ireland and its majority ownership by the Irish government. This results ina one-notch uplift to PTSB's senior unsecured debt and bank deposit ratings (see Exhibit 6 - Instrument Class section).

We consider the probability of government support for the holding company's liabilities to be low, leading to an issuer rating and seniorunsecured debt rating of Ba3 for PTSB Holdings.

For other junior securities, we continue to apply a low government support assumption, and the ratings for these instruments do notinclude any related uplift (see Exhibit 6 - Instrument Class section).

Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs)CRRs are opinions of the ability of entities to honour the uncollateralised portion of non-debt counterparty financial liabilities (CRRliabilities) and also reflect the expected financial losses in the event such liabilities are not honoured. CRR liabilities typically relate totransactions with unrelated parties. Examples of CRR liabilities include the uncollateralised portion of payables arising from derivativestransactions and the uncollateralised portion of liabilities under sale and repurchase agreements. CRRs are not applicable to fundingcommitments or other obligations associated with covered bonds, letters of credit, guarantees, servicer and trustee obligations, andother similar obligations that arise from a bank performing its essential operating functions.

PTSB's CRRs are positioned at Baa1/P-2PTSB's CRRs are four notches above the ba2 Adjusted BCA and at the same level as the CR Assessment, reflecting the buffer againstdefault provided by more junior instruments to the CRR liabilities and the government support uplift of one notch, assuming amoderate level of support (see Exhibit 6 - Debt Class and Instrument Class sections, respectively).

Counterparty Risk (CR) AssessmentCR Assessments are opinions of how counterparty obligations are likely to be treated if a bank fails and are distinct from debt anddeposit ratings in that they (1) consider only the risk of default rather than both the likelihood of default and the expected financial losssuffered in the event of default, and (2) apply to counterparty obligations and contractual commitments rather than debt or depositinstruments. The CR Assessment is an opinion of the counterparty risk related to a bank's covered bonds, contractual performanceobligations (servicing), derivatives (for example, swaps), letters of credit, guarantees and liquidity facilities.

PTSB's CR Assessment is positioned at Baa1(cr)/P-2(cr)The CR Assessment, before one notch of government support, is positioned three notches above PTSB's BCA of ba2, given theprotection provided by subordinated debt, senior debt and wholesale deposits (see Exhibit 6 - Debt Class section). The main differencefrom our Advanced LGF approach used to determine instrument ratings is that the CR Assessment captures the probability of default

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on certain senior obligations, rather than expected loss. Therefore, we focus purely on subordination and take no account of the volumeof the instrument class.

The CR Assessment also benefits from one notch of government support, in line with our support assumptions on deposits and seniorunsecured debt (see Exhibit 6 - Instrument Class section). This reflects our view that any support provided by governmental authoritiesto a bank, which benefits senior unsecured debt or deposits, is very likely to benefit operating activities and obligations reflected by theCR Assessment as well, consistent with our belief that governments are likely to maintain such operations as a going concern to reducecontagion and preserve a bank's critical functions.

Methodology and scorecardAbout Moody's Bank ScorecardOur scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee's judgement. When read inconjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgement is expressed. As a result, the output of our scorecardmay materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strongdivergence). The scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down toreflect conditions specific to each rated entity.

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Rating methodology and scorecard factors

Exhibit 6

Permanent tsb p.l.c.Macro FactorsWeighted Macro Profile Strong 100%

Factor HistoricRatio

InitialScore

ExpectedTrend

Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2

SolvencyAsset RiskProblem Loans / Gross Loans 18.3% b3 ↑↑ ba3 Quality of assets Expected trend

CapitalTangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets(Basel III - fully loaded)

15.9% a1 ←→ baa2 Stress capitalresilience

ProfitabilityNet Income / Tangible Assets 0.2% b1 ←→ b1 Expected trend Return on assets

Combined Solvency Score ba1 ba2LiquidityFunding StructureMarket Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 12.2% a3 ←→ baa1 Expected trend

Liquid ResourcesLiquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 17.7% baa3 ←→ ba1 Expected trend

Combined Liquidity Score baa1 baa2Financial Profile ba1Qualitative Adjustments Adjustment

Business Diversification -1Opacity and Complexity 0Corporate Behavior 0

Total Qualitative Adjustments -1Sovereign or Affiliate constraint A2Scorecard Calculated BCA range ba1 - ba3Assigned BCA ba2Affiliate Support notching 0Adjusted BCA ba2

Balance Sheet in-scope(EUR Million)

% in-scope at-failure(EUR Million)

% at-failure

Other liabilities 2,432 11.9% 3,348 16.4%Deposits 17,371 85.0% 16,155 79.1%

Preferred deposits 15,634 76.5% 14,852 72.7%Junior deposits 1,737 8.5% 1,303 6.4%Senior unsecured bank debt 17 0.1% 17 0.1%Senior unsecured holding company debt 300 1.5%Equity 613 3.0% 613 3.0%Total Tangible Banking Assets 20,433 100.0% 20,433 100.0%

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De Jure waterfall De Facto waterfall NotchingDebt ClassInstrumentvolume +

subordination

Sub-ordination

Instrumentvolume +

subordination

Sub-ordination

De Jure De FactoLGF

NotchingGuidance

vs.Adjusted

BCA

AssignedLGF

notching

AdditionalNotching

PreliminaryRating

Assessment

Counterparty Risk Rating 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 2 2 2 3 0 baa2Counterparty Risk Assessment 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 10.9% 3 3 3 3 0 baa2 (cr)Deposits 10.9% 4.5% 10.9% 4.6% 0 0 0 1 0 ba1Senior unsecured bank debt 10.9% 4.5% 4.6% 4.5% 0 -1 0 1 0 ba1Dated subordinated bank debt 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% -1 -1 -1 -1 0 ba3Junior subordinated bank debt 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 b1

Instrument Class Loss GivenFailure notching

Additionalnotching

Preliminary RatingAssessment

GovernmentSupport notching

Local CurrencyRating

ForeignCurrency

RatingCounterparty Risk Rating 3 0 baa2 1 Baa1 Baa1Counterparty Risk Assessment 3 0 baa2 (cr) 1 Baa1(cr)Deposits 1 0 ba1 1 Baa3 Baa3Senior unsecured bank debt 1 0 ba1 1 Baa3Dated subordinated bank debt -1 0 ba3 0 (P)Ba3Junior subordinated bank debt -1 -1 b1 0 (P)B1[1]Where dashes are shown for a particular factor (or sub-factor), the score is based on non-public information.Source: Moody’s Investors Service

Ratings

Exhibit 7Category Moody's RatingPERMANENT TSB P.L.C.

Outlook PositiveCounterparty Risk Rating Baa1/P-2Bank Deposits Baa3/P-3Baseline Credit Assessment ba2Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment ba2Counterparty Risk Assessment Baa1(cr)/P-2(cr)Senior Unsecured -Dom Curr Baa3Subordinate MTN -Dom Curr (P)Ba3Jr Subordinate MTN -Dom Curr (P)B1Other Short Term -Dom Curr (P)P-3

PARENT: PERMANENT TSB GROUP HOLDINGS PLC

Outlook PositiveIssuer Rating -Dom Curr Ba3Senior Unsecured -Dom Curr Ba3Other Short Term -Dom Curr (P)NP

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Endnotes1 The bank's Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process requirement of 9.825%, consisting of a Pillar 1 requirement of 4.5%, a Pillar 2 requirement of

3.45% and a capital conservation buffer of 1.875%. In 2019, the capital conservation buffer will be fully phased-in, leading to an increase in the CET1minimum requirement of 0.625% to 10.45%. Furthermore, since July 2019, the bank is required to hold an additional capital buffer equivalent to 1% of itsrisk-weighted assets because of the phase in of the countercyclical capital buffer implemented by the Central Bank of Ireland.

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12 8 October 2019 Permanent tsb p.l.c.: Update to credit analysis