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permanent tsb Group
Credit Investor Update
March 2015
Please refer to the important information in disclaimer on pages 43 to 44 before continuing
Table of Contents
1
Section 1 Comprehensive Assessment and Capital Plan
Section 2 Overview of PTSB Group
Section 3 Financial Performance
Section 4 Asset Quality
Section 5 Capital
Section 6 Funding & Liquidity
Section 7 Summary
Section 8 Appendix
Section 9 Legal Disclaimer
Section 1
Comprehensive Assessment and Capital Plan
Comprehensive Assessment And Capital Plan: An Overview
3
• SSM Outcome
‒ Provisioning levels validated by the Asset Quality Review
‒ Sufficiently capitalised in the Baseline Scenario
‒ Capital shortfall of €855m identified in the Adverse Scenario
‒ The Group’s Capital Plan is ‘Endorsed’ by the ECB/JST(a) with no major amendments
• Capital Plan
‒ At least €330m of Management Actions
‒ €525m of new capital (€400m equity + €125m AT1)
‒ Use of Funds includes repurchase of State Contingent Capital Note (CCN) of €400m (ineligible instrument for
Capital Plan unless converted)
(a) Joint Supervisory Team
Asset Quality Review (AQR) Baseline Stress Test Scenario Adverse Stress Test Scenario
Comprehensive Assessment: Outcome
Capital
Buffer vs
8.0%
(€m)
860 812
Capital
Buffer vs
8.0%
(€m)
812 145
Capital
Buffer vs
5.5%
(€m)
1,232 (855)
Capital Surplus in the AQR and Baseline Stress Test Capital Shortfall in the Adverse Stress Test
Note: The AQR adjusted CET1 ratio of 12.8% is the starting point for the baseline and adverse scenarios
Min. CET 1
Ratio (8.0%) Min. CET 1
Ratio (8.0%)
Min. CET 1
Ratio (5.5%)
4
13.1% 12.8%
(0.3)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2013 Available Capital
AQR Impact 2013 Capital Post-AQR
CE
T1
Ra
tio
vs R
eq
uir
em
en
ts, Y
ea
r-E
nd
AQ
R
12.8%
8.8%
(4.0)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2013 Capital Post-AQR
Baseline Scenario Impact
Minimum Test Capital
CE
T1
Ra
tio
vs R
eq
uir
em
en
ts, Y
ea
r-E
nd
Ba
se
line
S
ce
na
rio
12.8%
1.0%(11.9)%0%
5%
10%
15%
2013 Capital Post-AQR
Adverse ScenarioImpact
Minimum TestCapital
CE
T1
Ra
tio
vs R
eq
uir
em
en
ts, Y
ea
r-E
nd
Ad
ve
rse
Sce
na
rio
>5.5%
1.0%
>1.4%
>3.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
CA Outcome Management Actions And Technical
Adjustment
Combination Of New Equity And
AT1
CA Outcome Post-Capital
Plan
Advers
e S
tress T
est S
cenario C
ET
1 R
atio
(Tra
nsitio
nal)
Capital Plan
Capital Plan: The Capital Plan Has Been ‘Endorsed’ By ECB/JST
Resulting 2016
Capital
Post-Capital Plan
Min. CET1 Ratio (5.5%)
Capital
Buffer/
(Shortfall)
(€m)
(855) >330 525 >0
• €855m capital shortfall in the Adverse Stress Test
excluded the €400m CCN which only qualifies as
available capital upon conversion
• Capital Plan submitted to address shortfall included:
– €525m of new capital, through a combination of Equity
and AT1; and
– At least €330m of capital from ‘Management Actions’
(2014 actual performance, asset sales, technical
items)
• The Group’s Capital Plan is ‘Endorsed’ by the ECB/JST
with no major amendments
• Formal approval of the Capital Plan is subject to its
implementation – the Group has until July 26th to execute
the outstanding elements of the plan; in particular, the
Capital Raise
5
Section 2
Overview of PTSB Group
‒ Full service retail bank across Current
Accounts, Deposits, Mortgages, Credit
Cards and Personal Loans
‒ Dedicated Asset Management Unit (AMU)
platform for arrears management(a)
Group Organisation
Group (Net Loans: €28.2bn)
Non-Core (Net Loans: €8.2bn)
Core Bank (Net Loans: €20.1bn)
UK Non-Core (Net Loans: €6.7bn)(b)
RoI Non-Core (Net Loans: €1.5bn)
‒ Commercial Real
Estate assets
‒ Sale of €0.8bn net loans
announced
‒ Remaining assets to be
deleveraged over next 12
months
‒ Predominately CHL; a good
credit quality but low yield
Buy-To-Let mortgage book
‒ Sale of €3.5bn(c) net loans
announced
‒ Remaining assets to be
deleveraged over next 12
months subject to minimum
price thresholds
Note: Figures are net loans as at 31 December 2014 and include assets classified as held for sale. See Appendix for full explanation of Core Bank/Non-Core split and for pro-forma for sales announced in
March 2015
(a) Also manages CRE Non Performing (Residential) loans which are part of Non-Core
(b) FX rate of EUR:GBP 0.78 as at 31 December 2014
(c) €3.5bn gross (€3.5bn net) based on FY2014 figure and FX rate of EUR:GBP 0.73 as at 28 February 2015. €3.2bn gross (€3.2bn net) based on FY2014 and FX rate of EUR:GBP 0.78 as at 31
December 2014
7
Core HL53%
Core BTL17%
Consumer Finance
1%
Non-Core29%
Group Overview
Group Loans
FY2014 Financials
Group Net Loans: €28.2bn
Note: See Appendix for full explanation of Core Bank/Non-Core split and for pro-forma as of June 2015
(a) Permanent Bank International Limited ("PBI") is a deposit business in the Isle of Man which, while considered core to the overall business of the Group, has historically been included in the Non-Core to
enable the Group to hedge its GBP foreign exchange exposure more efficiently
(b) Adjusted for non-recurring items. See Appendix for more details
(€bn Unless Stated) Core Non-Core Group
Deposits 19.8 0.6 20.4
Net Loans 20.1 8.2 28.2
Provisions 2.5 1.2 3.7
RWA 11.3 3.5 14.8
Equity 2.3
Total Operating Income (€m) 310 (2) 308
Total Operating Expenses (€m) (356) (33) (389)
Pre-Provision Loss (€m) (46) (35) (81)
Writeback/(Charge) Of Impairments (€m) 51 (9) 42
Exceptional Items (€m) 0 (9) (9)
Profit/(Loss) Before Taxation (€m) 5 (53) (48)
NIM (pre-ELG Fees) 1.21% na 0.90%
Underlying Cost:Income Ratio(b) 86% nm 97%
RoE na na (4.6)%
LDR 101% nm 138%
CET1 Ratio (Transitional) 14.2%
CET1 Ratio (Fully Loaded) 12.4%
8
Group Deposits
Core Bank
Net Loans:
€20.1bn
Total Deposits: €20.4bn
Non-Core
Net Loans:
€8.2bn
Retail(ex-Current Accounts)
57%
Institutional14%
RetailCurrent
Accounts13%
Corporate13%
PBI (IoM)(a)
3%
Non-Core: Focused Deleveraging Means ‘Group Will Equal Core
Bank’ By The Middle of 2016
9
Overview Exit Strategy
Non-Core RoI
• €2.0bn CRE Non Performing portfolios
• €0.6bn CRE Performing portfolios
• Sale of €1.5bn of gross (€0.8bn net) assets announced
• Management targeting a sale of remaining loans over the
next 12 months
Non-Core UK(a)
• €6.5bn CHL portfolio
‒ Low LTV, predominantly Trackers
• €0.3bn IPI(b) closed mortgage book
• Sale of €3.5bn(c) of gross (€3.5bn net) assets (c.50% of the
outstanding CHL) and the CHL underwriting platform
announced
• Management targeting a sale of remaining CHL assets to
be agreed at no more than a 10% discount to gross assets
over next 12 months
Note: Figures are gross loans as at 31 December 2014
(a) Non-Core UK also includes Permanent Bank International Limited ("PBI") deposits of €0.6bn. PBI is a deposit business in the Isle of Man which, while considered core to the overall business of the Group,
has historically been included in the Non-Core to enable the Group to hedge its GBP foreign exchange exposure more efficiently
(b) Irish Permanent Isle of Man (IoM) Limited; a closed mortgage book in the Isle of Man comprising €0.3bn residential loans
(c) €3.5bn gross (€3.5bn net) based on FY2014 figure and FX rate of EUR:GBP 0.73 as at 28 February 2015. €3.2bn gross (€3.2bn net) based on FY2014 and FX rate of EUR:GBP 0.78 as at 31 December
2014
Core Bank: Focused Domestic Retail Bank Well Positioned To Grow
RoI Current Account Market Share
RoI Total Deposits (€bn)
RoI Gross Residential Mortgages (€bn)
Note: Data is stock market share calculated based on results of polling
Source: RedC Brand and Ad Tracking, Q4 2014 poll commissioned by PTSB
(a) Excludes PBI deposits
Source: FY2014 for PTSB, AIB and BoI; FY2013 for Ulster and KBC
Source: FY2014 for PTSB, AIB and BoI; FY2013 for Ulster and KBC
PTSB Overview
• Focused Domestic Retail Bank well placed to capture market
share:
– 1 million plus customers
– 77 branches plus phone and web capability
– 2,321 FTEs
• Pure retail offering with full service product suite
• Well positioned to benefit from profitable growth opportunities in
a consolidated market and increasing credit demand
• Aiming for growth to achieve 13-17% share in key products:
– Current Accounts
– Retail Deposits
– Residential Mortgage Lending
• Seeking to explore opportunities in:
– SME
– Consumer Finance
10
(a)
36%30%
17%13%
AIB BoI PTSB Ulster
51.2
37.0
19.8 19.2
3.5
AIB BoI PTSB Ulster KBC
36.3
25.622.9
20.1
11.3
AIB BoI PTSB Ulster KBC
House Prices Market Mortgage Drawdowns
Strong Macro-Economics Support Increasing Demand For Credit
Unemployment Domestic Consumption
GDP Growth Business Confidence
Note: Data shown is the percentage fall of HPI Index from its peak
Source: Goodbody (January 2015)
Source: CBI Quarterly Bulletin (January 2015)
Source: CBI Quarterly Bulletin (January 2015)
Source: Banking and Payments Federation Ireland
11
Note: Growth in consumer spending
Source: Ulster Bank RoI Quarterly Economic Update (August 2014)
Note: Based on quarterly average for the calendar year
Source: Quarterly Trends Survey, Irish Small and Medium Enterprises Association
(46)%(37)% (33)%
(28)%
(60)%
(40)%
(20)%
0%
2013 2014 2015F 2016F
13.1%
11.4%
10.4%
9.3%
2013 2014 2015F 2016F
0.2%
5.1%
3.7% 3.8%
2013 2014 2015F 2016F
2.5 2.6 2.53.9
14.3 15.9 15.0
22.1
2011 2012 2013 2014
Value (€bn) Volume ('000s)
(11%) (8%)
21%
42%
2011 2012 2013 2014
(1.1%)(0.8%)
1.1%
2.0%
2012 2013 2014F 2015F
Growing Retail Deposit Base Growing Mortgage Lending Flow
The Group Has Scale Natural Market Share In Key Products
Note: Market share for lending is flow, for deposits is stock. Deposit volumes reflect RoI only (PBI excluded)
Source: PWC/IBF Quarterly Mortgage Data, CBI Data
12
81
209
429
67
290
485
3.1%
8.3%
11.1%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2013 2014
Mortgage Drawdowns (€m) Mortgage Approvals (€m)
Market Share of Mortgage Drawdowns (%)
13.2
13.6
14.3
11.9%
12.1%
12.7%
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
2012 2013 2014
Retail Deposit Volumes (€bn) Market Share (%)
11%
13% - 17%
2014 2018E Target
Business Plan Underpinned By Grounded Assumptions
Current Accounts Deposits
Credit Cards Term Loans SME
Increased Cross-Selling Supported By Current Account Growth
Note: Graph shows % of PTSB primary current account holders with a PTSB
term loan compared to % of BoI, AIB or Ulster Bank primary current
account customers that have a personal loan with that same bank
Source: RedC Brand and Ad Tracking, Q4 2014 poll commissioned by PTSB
Strong Growth In Current Accounts Driven By Switchers
Increased Cross-Selling To Existing Customer Base Capturing Credit Opportunities In A Concentrated Market
Source: ISME Quarterly Bank Watch Survey (December 2013)
• 59% of firms say banks making it more difficult to
access finance
Balancing Growth And Attractive Customer Pricing
Note: RoI Deposits Only
Source: CBI Data
1.75%
1.30%
0.99%
0.81%
0.50%
13
Mortgages
Maintaining Share In A Recovering Market
Note: Mortgage Drawdowns
(a) Investec (February 2015)
Source: IBF Data (for 2014), Internal Management Assumptions
Gross
Lending
Value (€bn)
3.9 >8.0(a)
0.75%
Note: Figures are new accounts opened in given year
Note: Figures are new accounts opened in given year
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Dec 13 Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Sep 14 Dec 14
Blended Market Rate Blended PTSB ROI Retail Rate
28.2k
41.9k
56.2k
2012 2013 2014
0.8k
3.2k
7.6k
2012 2013 2014
5%
12%
PTSB Market
Section 3
Financial Performance
15
Group Result
Pre-Tax Loss REDUCED 93%
from €668m to €48m
Profit Before Impairments,
Non-Recurring and
Exceptional Items:
Group: €8m
Core Bank: €45m
Further Progress:
Group: 90bps (+8bps)
Core Bank: 121bps (+24bps)
Impairments
Operating Profit
System Funding Capital
NIM
€1bn reduction from 2013
€42m write-back in 2014
System Funding down 29%
€4.9bn at year-end, down
from €6.9bn
CET1% of 14.2%
Up 1.1% on prior year
Financial Headlines
Group Income Statement
Group Income Statement Summary
(€m) FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014
Interest Income 1,200 973 874
Interest Expense (900) (664) (545)
Net Interest Income (excl ELG) 300 309 329
ELG Fees (165) (105) (59)
Other Income 62 48 38
Total Operating Income 197 252 308
Total Operating Expenses (283) (300) (389)
Pre-Provision Loss (86) (48) (81)
Writeback/(Charge) Of Impairments (891) (929) 42
Profit/(Loss) Before Exceptional Items (977) (977) (39)
Exceptional Items (Net) 58 309 (9)
Loss Before Taxation (919) (668) (48)
Net Non-Recurring Items (24) 17 89
Profit/(Loss) Before Impairments, Non-
Recurring And Exceptional Items (110) (31) 8
Key Ratios
Group Bank NIM(a) 0.72% 0.82% 0.90%
Underlying Group Cost:Income Ratio(b) 166% 113% 97%
Group Cost of Risk 2.7% 3.0% (0.1)%
(a) Excludes ELG fees
(b) Adjusted for Non-Recurring Items. See Appendix for more details
(c) €3.1bn Own Use Bond cancelled in December 2014 as per the Related Parties note in the Annual Report, the Group has a five year government guaranteed bond maturing in March 2015, on which the
outstanding balance at the year end was €1.3bn, representing 47% of the Group’s total covered liabilities
• Steady NIM improvement of 18bps, despite falling ECB rates (95bps
fall since start of 2012), driven by lower cost of funds
• ELG fees continuing to decline rapidly, reducing to immaterial levels
from 2016 as covered balances mature(c)
• Underlying Non Interest Income stream from fee earning products is
stable; 2012 and 2013 impacted by significant one-offs
• Increase in headline Operating Expenses largely driven by one-off
provisions for legacy legal and compliance issues and introduction of
the Bank Levy; underlying costs are stable
• Underlying Cost:Income Ratio is continuing to decline
• Net writeback of Impairments in 2014 mainly driven by reduced new
default flow and provision releases as restructured loans are
recognised as ‘cured’
• Profit Before Impairments, Non-Recurring and Exceptional Items
achieved in 2014. Non-Recurring Items primarily composed of one-off
legal provisions. Further details in Appendix
16
Core Bank Income Statement: Profitable in 2014
(a) Exceptional items in 2013 primarily comprised of gain on the wind-up of the Group’s Defined Benefit pension scheme. Split of gain attributable to Core Bank unavailable
(b) Excludes ELG fees
(c) Adjusted for non-recurring items. See Appendix for more details
Core Bank Income Statement Summary
(€m) FY 2013 FY 2014
Net Interest Income (excl ELG) 287 334
ELG Fees (103) (59)
Other Income 48 35
Total Operating Income 232 310
Total Operating Expenses (282) (356)
Pre-Provision Profit/(Loss) (50) (46)
Writeback/(Charge) Of Impairments (644) 51
Profit/(Loss) Before Exceptional Items (694) 5
Exceptional Items (Net)(a) 0 0
Profit/(Loss) Before Taxation (694) 5
Net Non-Recurring Items 16 91
Profit/(Loss) Before Impairments, Non-Recurring
And Exceptional Items (34) 45
Key Ratios
Core Bank NIM(b) 0.97% 1.21%
Underlying Core Bank Cost:Income Ratio(c) 116% 86%
Core Bank Cost of Risk 3.0% (0.2)%
Core Bank Loan to Deposit Ratio 108% 101%
17
• Core Bank NIM improved to 1.21% in 2014 from 0.97% in 2013,
demonstrating considerable progress towards the medium term
target of 1.70%
• Movements in ELG Fees, Other Income and Operating Expenses
driven by same factors as outlined in respect of the Group, including:
– ELG Fees reducing rapidly as covered balances mature
– Underlying Other Income stable; 2013 includes one-off gains on certain asset disposals
– 2014 Operating Expenses impacted by legacy legal provisions and introduction of Bank Levy
• Net impairment credit driven by provision write-backs in the year.
Potential for further write-back outlined previously
• Expect return to sustainable profitability from 2016 onwards (not
reliant on HPI provision write-backs)
c.10.0%
2014E Core Bank
RoE
AssetBackbook+Frontbook
MarginManagement
DepositMix/
Pricing
ELG Fees LegacyFundingCosts
CostReduction
2018ECore Bank
Target
Core Bank NIM c.1.70%
Core Bank Cost:Income Ratio c.50%
Core Bank Cost of Risk <0.4%
Core Bank RoE(a) c.10.0%
(a) RoE target based on a notional fully loaded CET1 ratio of 11%
(b) Legacy Funding Costs include CCN and deposit intangibles amortisation
Medium-Term Targets: Trending To Attractive Returns
Medium-Term Targets Core Bank RoE Target of c.10%(a)
Representative only:
not intended to portray actual
contributions from each category
18
(b)
na
1.21%
0.97%
1.19%
1.70%
Core Bank NIM
2013
Core Bank NIM H1 2014
Core Bank NIM
2014
Legacy Funding Costs
Falling Cost of
Deposits
Change in Deposit
Mix
Back Book
Run-Off
Front Book
Growth
Core Bank NIM
2018 Target
NIM Trending Towards 170bps
Target NIM Of 170bps By 2018 Core Bank NIM
• Cost of funds expected to continue to fall as the back book tail rolls off and as we continue to re-price to the market
• Potential further upside from adjusting the deposit mix
• Expected repurchase of CCN to contribute to reduction in legacy funding costs
• 2011/12 spread compression driven by a requirement to build scale into our deposit base
• Asset yields impacted by lower interest rate environment, in particular RoI tracker mortgages, as the ECB rate has decreased by 95bps since start of 2012
• NIM improvement driven by larger fall in cost of funds including cost of retail deposits, change in deposit mix and lower cost of System Funding
19
Note: Figures exclude ELG fees Note: Figures exclude ELG fees
(a) Legacy funding costs include CCN and deposit intangibles amortisation
(a)
Representative only:
not intended to portray actual
contributions from each category
2.66%2.49% 2.49% 2.40%
1.73%1.44%
1.30% 1.17%
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014
Core Bank Asset Yield Core Bank Cost of Funds
1.19% 1.23%
0.93% 1.05%
Section 4
Asset Quality
21
Asset Quality: Significant Progress Has Been Made
Significant Progress In
Addressing Legacy
Poor Quality Portfolios
• Risk management has been strengthened (People & Systems)
• AMU established in 2012
• Specific strategies in place for resolution of defaulted HL and BTL portfolios
Provisioning
Coverage Rates Are
High
• Core Bank provisions increased to €2.5bn
• Asset Quality Review (AQR) confirmed adequacy of the Group’s Provisions
• Despite 2014 write-back provision coverage remains stable
Improving Asset
Quality
• Early arrears decreased by c.3ppt(a) since June 2012 for both HL and BTL
• New defaults have significantly reduced
• >90 Days In Arrears cases continue to decrease
• Seasoned portfolio given vintages
• Low redefault rate on treated loans
Non Performing Loans
Are Improving
• NPLs have peaked and are gradually reducing
• NPL composition is changing and loss severity varies by cohort
• All NPLs are not the same
Negative Equity • Negative equity has decreased by over 30% since December 2013
• Core Bank NPL negative equity balances of €1.2bn are supported by €2.5bn of provisions
New Lending
Exhibiting Low
Arrears
• Core Bank has returned to the market for both secured and unsecured products
• Recent arrears vintages are low and improving
(a) Percentage of Total Book (see slide 79)
NPL Trends: Fewer Defaults, More Cures And An Increasing Number
of Treatments Are Reducing NPLs
New Defaults (€m)
• New defaults are slowing, mainly driven by improvement in Home Loans
• Recent new defaults mainly reflect defaults of assets which have
exhibited stress in the past
39.1% As % of
NPLs(a) 35.8% 12.3%
Cures (€m)
• Cures steadily increasing
• 2014 cures higher than 2013
13.1% As % of
NPLs(a) 9.6% 14.3%
Note: Data is for the entire RoI Residential Mortgage portfolio including CRE Performing and Non Performing (Residential)
(a) Annual new default/cure as a % of opening stock of NPLs
22
1,616
1,869
861
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2012 2013 2014
324256
142 139
Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14
294
200263 245
Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4 -14
540 500
1,002
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2012 2013 2014
3.15 3.42 3.462.93
2.38
0.040.18
1.031.62
1.853.19
3.61
4.49 4.554.23
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14
2.01 1.75 1.52 1.42 1.25
0.020.23
0.95 1.010.99
2.04 1.98
2.47 2.432.24
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14
Non-Performing Loans – Home Loan (€bn)
23
NPL Trends: Increasing Number Of Treatments Leading To Reducing
NPLs
Non-Performing Loans – Buy-To-Let (€bn)
NPLs As %
Of Gross
Loans 18% 21% 26% 31% 30% 38%
NPLs As %
Of Gross
Loans
• NPLs represent c.28% of the mortgage portfolio
• HL NPLs peaked in Q2 2014 and are gradually reducing. Similarly BTL NPLs peaked in Q4, 2013 and are gradually reducing
• NPLs will remain elevated for some time given regulatory and IFRS classification of treated assets
27% 38%
2.041.75 1.52 1.35 1.35
0.000.23 0.73
0.67 0.66
2.04 1.982.25
2.02 2.01
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Sep-14
>90 days in arrears <90 days in arrears and impaired
36% 26%
Note: Data is for the entire RoI Residential Mortgage portfolio including CRE Performing and Non Performing (Residential)
48% 43% 39%
9% 6% 11%
9% 12% 10%
4% 3% 2%
31% 34% 35%
0% 3% 4%
2.47 2.43 2.24
Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14
56%
40% 33%
12%
10% 14%
7%
7% 5%
4%
1% 1%
16%
19% 20%
5%
23% 27%
4.49 4.55 4.23
Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14
Home Loan NPLs (€bn)
Treatment Mix: Loss Severity Expected To Change Over Time As
Treatment Mix Varies
Buy-To-Let NPLs (€bn)
• Increasing proportion of total NPL stock is in treatment
• >90 days in arrears or Legal is reducing significantly
• ‘Treated But Impaired’ i.e. Split Mortgages, are a key feature of PTSB’s approach to resolution. However, Splits results in NPL stock reported remaining
elevated due to IFRS definitions
• Future NPL ratio will be driven by volume of Splits, Technically Held and >90 or Legal Cases as the remainder should exit NPL over the long term
25%
43% 48%
35% 39% 41%
Note: Technically Held relate to assets which have not breached the standard delinquency triggers, but are classified as default, typically through association with other defaulted assets. Data is for the entire RoI
Residential Mortgage portfolio including CRE Performing and Non Performing (Residential)
In
Treatment
In
Treatment
24
48% 47% 39% 9% 7% 11% 9% 13% 10% 4% 3% 2% 31% 24% 35% 0% 5% 4% 2.47 2.19 2.24
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14
>90days or Legal Closures Technically Held Short Term Long Term Treated Splits
1,444 1,539 1,549 1,551 1,514
1,117 1,110 1,088 1,029
934
98 101 77 78
96
2,659 2,750 2,714 2,658
2,544
2013 Q1 2014 H1 2014 Q3 2014 2014
HL BTL Consumer Finance
Provision Coverage: Loan Book Adequately Provisioned
25
Provisions and Provision Coverage Ratio (€m)
• €2.5bn provisions against €22.5bn RoI gross residential and
consumer loans
• ECB SSM/AQR confirmed adequacy of provisioning stock as at 31
December 2013
• PCR(a) at 45% is a moderate increase from December 2013 given
improved portfolio performance and modest change in
provisioning parameters reflecting economic improvement
44% PCR%(a) 43% 45% 44%
Note: Data is for the Core Bank RoI Residential mortgages only; excludes CRE (Residential)
(a) Provision Coverage Ratio, calculated as total provisions divided by NPLs greater than 90 days
in arrears and/or impaired loans
44%
2.2 2.1
1.3
1.6 1.5
1.1
€3.8bn
€3.5bn
€2.4bn
Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14
Performing (€bn) Non Performing (€bn)
Collateral Coverage: NPL Negative Equity Balance Of €1.1bn Offset By
€2.5bn Of Provisions
(€m) Non
Performing Performing Total Cumulative
Cumulative
As % Of
Total
<70% 840 5,268 6,108 6,108 26.9%
70% – 90% 700 2,956 3,656 9,764 43.0%
90% – 110% 1,065 2,899 3,964 13,728 60.4%
110% – 130% 1,333 2,758 4,091 17,819 78.4%
130% – 160% 1,514 2,037 3,551 21,370 94.1%
160% – 180% 440 180 621 21,991 96.8%
> 180% 508 106 613 22,604 99.5%
Not Applicable(a) 68 43 111 22,715 100.0%
Total 6,468 16,247 22,715(b)
Loan Split by LTV Negative Equity Falling
(7)%
(32)%
Note: Data is for the entire RoI Residential Mortgage portfolio including CRE Performing and Non
Performing (Residential) Note: Data is for the entire RoI Residential Mortgage portfolio including CRE (Residential)
(a) ‘Not applicable’ loans are loans where no known collateral value exists from which to derive LTV.
Figures are gross loans indexed linked as of 31 December 2014
(b) Excludes €137m of deferred fees, discounts and fair value adjustment (€1m out of total €138m
relates to Consumer Finance)
• Rising house prices have driven improved LTVs. Negative equity balances
for the overall portfolio have reduced by 37% since December 2013:
– As per CSO, HPI has improved from a peak to trough fall of 46% in
December 2013 to 38% in December 2014, circa 16% improvement
• NPL negative equity balance of €1.1bn supported by €2.5bn of existing
provisions
26
Section 5
Capital
Maintaining A Strong Capital Position: Indicative Pro-Forma
28
RWA 14.8 (1.4) 13.4 n/a 13.4
CET1 (Fully Loaded) 1.8 (0.3) 1.5 0.4 1.9
Tangible Book Value 2.2 (0.3) 1.9 0.4 2.3
4.5% 5.5% CRD IV Fully Loaded
Leverage Ratio:
Note: All figures in table are €bn. FX rate of EUR:GBP 0.78 as at 31 December 2014 has been used for above calculations
(a) Impact of deleveraging announced in March 2015
4.1%
(0.9)%
12.4%11.5%
2.8% 14.3%
2014 CET1Fully Loaded
Impact Of Announced Deleveraging
2014 CET1 Fully Loaded Pro-Forma For Deleveraging
Capital Raise 2014 CET1 Fully Loaded Pro-Forma For Capital Raise
• Management targeting a sale of remaining CHL and CRE loans in next 12 months
• CHL subject to maximum haircut of 10% of gross assets, in addition to c.€80m expected transaction costs
• CRE expected to be broadly capital neutral
(a)
Section 6
Funding & Liquidity
15.116.6
19.520.4
c.60% of Group Funding
227%
191%
151%138%
<130%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2018E Target
Customer Deposits (€bn) LDR
Funding: Rightsizing Deposits And System Funding
System Funding Returning To Normalised Levels Significant Growth In Customer Deposits
• 2011: System funding peaked in July at €19.5bn including a component of Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA)
• 2014: €14.7bn of System Funding re-paid
• 2018: Maintain a component of System Funding at <15% of Group funding
• 2011: Deposit base neglected and sub-scale with an LDR of 227%
• 2014: Strong growth in deposit base with sustainable LDR of 138%
• 2018: Core Bank LDR target of <130%
30
(a) Historic figures include funds placed by a government institution, comprising cash deposits and funds placed under repurchase agreements (‘Repos’). As at 2013 and 2014 the cash segment was €0.5bn and
€0.4bn respectively, the Repos were €2.2bn and €1.9bn respectively, giving a total of €2.7bn and €2.3bn respectively
(b) Includes inter-group deposit balance of €0.7bn
(c) Includes Corporate and Institutional deposits
(c)
15.116.6
19.520.4
c.60% of Group Funding227%
191%
151%
133% <130%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2018E Target
System Funding (€bn) LDR(a) (a)
14.0
10.7
6.9
4.9
<15% of Group Funding
2011 2012 2013 2014 2018E Target
(b)
40.7
Funding: Mix And Maintenance Led
Funding: Composition
33.3
Total
Funding
(€bn)
• Retail Deposits:
– Base is ‘right sized’
– Maintenance with 1-1.5% organic growth per annum
• Corporate Deposits:
– Expensive backbook tail running off, the last of which will
mature in 2017
– Volumes managed such that cost will reduce below Retail
Deposits
• Institutional Deposits:
– Priced away as C/A volumes increase, which are lower cost
and more beneficial from liquidity perspective
• Wholesale Funding:
– May increase (secured and unsecured) over medium term,
targeting c.20% of overall funding mix
31
34%
15% <15%
7%
13%c.20%
37% 61%
c.60%
21%10% <2.5%
1% 1% <2.5%
100% 100% 100%
2011 2014 2018E target mix
System Funding Wholesale Funding Customer Deposits
Debt Securities Subordinated Liabilities
(a) Includes inter-group deposit balance of €0.7bn
(a)
Liquidity Buffer (€bn)(a)
• The Group has significantly improved its Liquidity Buffer by a
combination of:
– Growing unsecured liabilities
– External securitisations
– Collateral optimisation (driving down asset encumbrance)
– Deleveraging and balance sheet run down
– Cancelled €3.1bn Own Use Bond (“OUB”) in December 14
– Redeemed the €1.4bn of MTNs that matured on 10th March 2015
• Liquidity Buffer is made up of cash, cash equivalents and
unencumbered collateral (including Basel 3 definition High Quality
Liquid Assets)
• Basel 3 Liquidity Coverage Ratio(b) of 160% at 2014YE
• Glide path towards compliance with the 2019 Basel 3 Net Stable
Funding Ratio requirements
Liquidity: Significantly Improved
(a) Includes Retained Securitisation Bonds which are eligible for use as collateral at the ECB
Liquidity Portfolio Composition
Total Liquidity Buffer: €5.3bn
32
Total HQLAs(a):
€3.2bn
(a) HQLAs: High Quality Liquid Assets
(b) Ratio of the stock of high quality liquid assets to expected net cash outflows over the next 30 days under a stress scenario. CRD IV requires that this ratio exceed 60% on 1 January 2015 and 100% on 1 January
2018
2.7
0.2
2.2
4.0
5.3
2011 2012 2013 2014
Liquidity Balances OUB
Bank Paper3%
Government Bonds34%
NAMA Bonds24%
Irish RMBS35%
Credit Line4%
• Non-Core RoI includes CRE Non Performing loans
– Sale of €1.5bn gross (€0.8bn net) loans announced in March 2015
– Management targeting a sale of remaining assets in next 12
months. Capital impact expected to be broadly neutral
• Non-Core UK comprises:
– Capital Home Loans (CHL); predominantly UK BTL portfolio
– Sale of €3.5bn(b) gross (€3.5bn net) assets announced in
March 2015
– Management targeting a sale of remaining assets to be agreed
at no more than a 10% haircut to gross assets in the next 12
months in addition to expected transaction costs of c.€80m
– IPI closed mortgage book(a)
• Execution against Non-Core deleveraging plan expected to result in
approximately €3bn of cash being returned to the Group:
– Provides opportunity to re-price aggressively non-retail deposit
base
– Potential for future acquisitions of profitable mortgage books
– Available for general corporate purposes
– Continue to build liquidity portfolio
• CHL related secured funding costs, including the costs associated
with hedging arrangements, amount to c.€100m in 2014
Liquidity: Deleveraging Supports ‘Cash Generation’
33
Note: CRE Performing and CRE Non Performing both include a Residential and a Commercial Segment
(a) Irish Permanent Isle of Man (IoM) Limited
(b) €3.5bn gross (€3.5bn net) based on FY2014 figure and FX rate of EUR:GBP 0.73 as at 28 February
2015. €3.2bn gross (€3.2bn net) based on FY2014 and FX rate of EUR:GBP 0.78 as at 31 December
2014
Non-Core Loan Book Summary
RoI UK
Total
CRE
Performing
CRE Non
Performing CHL IPI(a)
Gross Loans
(€bn) 0.6 2.0 6.5 0.3 9.3
Provisions
(€bn) 0.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
Net Loans (€bn) 0.6 0.9 6.4 0.3 8.2
NPLs (€bn) - 2.0 0.2 0.0 2.2
NPL% of Gross
Loans 0% 100% 3% 1% 23%
PCR % 9% 54% 27% 36% 54%
RWAs (€bn) 0.7 0.5 2.2 0.1 3.5
Section 7
Summary
Our Strategy
Capturing Profitable
Growth
• Increasing demand for credit as Irish economy recovers
• Full service domestic retail bank well placed to capture market share
• Attractive front book margins
• Entry into SME market via OME(a) provides potential for further upside
Managing The Legacy
• NIM drag expected to be reduced by decreasing cost of funds
• Funding and Liquidity expected to be strengthened by active balance sheet management
• Arrears Management expected to be enhanced by focus on best practice
• Non-Core deleveraging plan clearly defined and under way
Maintaining A Strong
Capital Position
• Strong pro-forma capital position with potential for dividends in the future
• CCN to be repurchased and capital stack normalised
• Additional capital provides buffer for future stress tests, flexibility to accelerate deleveraging and potential for
additional growth
Trending To
Attractive Returns
• Phase 1 cost base restructuring complete. Defined benefit pension schemes wound-up
• Well provisioned asset book and improving profitability metrics across Core Bank
• Robust management targets including a Core Bank RoE of around 10% by 2018
• Potential upside from provision releases and lower cost of deleveraging remaining Non-Core assets
Delivering Through A
Robust Management
Model
• Experienced and committed management team with a track record of delivering change
• Strong corporate governance with supportive majority shareholder
• Integrated approach between strategy and finance
(a) Owner Managed Enterprises; OME segment has <10 employees and either <€2m turnover or <€2m balance sheet
35
36
Clear Points of Departure and Arrival
• New Senior Management
Team appointed
• Established dedicated
AMU to address non-
performing loans
2012
• Creation of Core Bank
• Return to lending
• Captured deposits
• Demonstrated product
relevance; in particular,
Current Accounts
• Return to wholesale
funding markets
2013
• Passed AQR and baseline
stress test
• Capital shortfall under
adverse stress test
2014
• Restructuring Plan
approval
• Implement Capital Plan
• Targeted growth in
key products
• Sale of Non-Core RoI and
half of CHL
2015
• Non-Core deleveraging
complete
• Sustainable profitability in
Core Bank from 2016
2016 • Target RoE of c.10%
• Clear path to enhanced
RoE beyond 2018
2018
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
• Cost of Risk normalising
• Legacy costs reducing
2017
Section 8
Appendix
Group Balance Sheet
Group Balance Sheet Summary
(€bn) FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014
Cash and Bank Placements 1.7 1.4 1.9
Net Loans 31.8 29.3 27.2
Investments 6.8 6.0 6.4
Other Assets 0.6 0.9 0.8
Total Assets 40.9 37.6 36.3
Customer Deposits 16.6 19.5 20.4
System Funding 10.7 6.9 4.9
Repos 3.1 3.8 4.2
Debt Securities 6.5 4.1 3.4
Subordinated Liabilities 0.3 0.4 0.4
Other Liabilities 1.0 0.5 0.7
Total Equity 2.7 2.4 2.3
Total Liabilities and Equity 40.9 37.6 36.3
Key Ratios
Group Loan to Deposit Ratio 191% 151% 138%
CET1 (Transitional) na 13.1% 14.2%
LCR na na 160%(a)
• Recovery in new lending leading to significant front book growth
offset by amortisation and run-off of the back book
• Investments include €1.3bn NAMA Bonds (2013: €2.1bn). The pace
of repayments accelerated notably during 2014 such that the Agency
is now targeting the full repayment of all senior bonds by mid 2018
• Included in Other Assets are Deferred Tax Assets of €0.4bn (2013:
€0.4bn)
• Strong growth in Customer Deposits, such that they represented 61%
of total funding at the year-end; LDR improved to 138% as a result
(2012: 191%)
• System Funding reduced by 54% in the period 2012-2014; down two
thirds from peak levels in 2011
38
(a) Calculated based on the current guidelines
(€bn Unless Stated) Home Loan Buy-To-Let
CRE
(Residential) Consumer Core Bank
Accounts (000s) 134.9 22.4 1.7 189.0 344.5
Gross Loans 16.4 6.3 0.5 0.3 22.5
Provision 1.6 1.1 0.2 0.1 2.5
Net Loans 14.9 5.2 0.3 0.2 19.9
<90 Days In Arrears
(Not Classified As NPLs) 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
NPLs 4.2 2.2 0.4 0.1 6.2
Loans In Forbearance 3.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.4
o/w Performing In
Forbearance 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.3
o/w Non Performing In
Forbearance 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.1
Loans In Closures 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.9
Loans In Legal Process 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.7
Asset Quality: Overview of the Book
• Core Bank gross loans of €22.5bn with c.73% performing or in
early arrears (<90 days in arrears)
• €16.3bn (73%) performing and €0.5bn in arrears <90 days (2)%
• €6.2bn (27%) classified as non performing but only 16% >90
days in arrears
– €3.1bn in Forbearance (i.e. Treatment)
– €1.7bn in Legal
– €0.9bn in Closure
– €0.4bn in Untreated
• €2.5bn provision stock equivalent to coverage ratio of 45% of
NPLs(b)
• €1.3bn loans in Forbearance and classified as ‘Performing’ (i.e.
have been treated and no redefault for 12 months or greater and
are not split mortgages)
39
Note: HL and BTL in above table include CRE (Residential) loans which are classified as Non-Core. These should be subtracted from the sum of Home Loan, Buy-To-Let and Consumer to get Core Bank
(a) Excludes €138m of deferred fees, discounts and fair value adjustment
(b) 45% Provision Coverage Ratio (PCR) calculated as total provisions divided by NPLs greater than 90 days in arrears and/or impaired loans. Provisions divided by total NPLs is 41%
(a)
Group Capital Position
FY 2014
Pro-forma For
Deleveraging
Pro-forma For
Capital Raise
(€bn) Transitional Fully Loaded Transitional Fully Loaded Transitional Fully Loaded
RWAs 14.8 14.8 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.4
Risk Weighting as % Total Loans 53% 53% 55% 55% 55% 55%
Share Capital, Share Premium and Reserves 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.3
Available for Sale (AFS) (0.1) 0.0 (0.1) 0.0 (0.1) 0.0
Cash Flow Hedge (CFH) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Intangibles (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)
Deferred Tax Assets (DTA) 0.0 (0.4) 0.0 (0.4) 0.0 (0.4)
Common Equity Tier 1 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.5 2.2 1.9
AT1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Tier 1 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.5 2.3 2.0
Subordinated Liabilities (including CCN) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Regulatory Adjustments & Tier 2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total Capital 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.6 2.4 2.1
CET1 Ratio 14.2% 12.4% 13.5% 11.5% 16.2% 14.3%
Tier 1 Ratio 14.2% 12.4% 13.5% 11.5% 17.1% 15.2%
Total Capital Ratio 14.9% 13.1% 14.3% 12.3% 17.9% 15.9%
CRD IV Leverage Ratio 5.1% 4.5% 4.8% 4.1% 6.1% 5.5%
Note: Data is as of 31 December 2014. Pro-forma figures calculated on €400m equity raise and €125m AT1 issuance, subject to regulatory and other approvals
40
• Equity capital increase and AT1 issuance will further strengthen and improve the quality of the capital base:
– €400m primary equity
– €125m AT1 capital issuance
Draft Restructuring Plan Term Sheet Commitments
Commitment Description
Balance Sheet • Limit the maximum size of the Balance Sheet
• Deliver on Loan Treatment targets for residential NPLs, broadly consistent with CBI targets
Deleveraging • Deleverage mostly Non-Core assets within a defined realistic timeframe, subject to defined maximum haircuts
Costs • Limits on marketing spend
• Manage costs so that operating expenses and CIR remain below pre-defined thresholds
Competition
Restrictions
• Provide Service and Customer Mobility packages to relevant competitors if the Group’s market share exceeds
defined thresholds
• Limit activities outside Ireland, consistent with the Group’s strategy
• Commit not to deviate materially from the Group’s current activities
Acquisitions • No material acquisitions that would materially change the Group’s current business model
Dividends • The Group will limit distribution of dividends, subject to repurchase of the CoCo and such that capital is
adequately maintained to deliver on the restructuring plan commitments
41
SUBJECT TO FINAL DECISION BY THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Business Plan Reflects Term Sheet Commitments
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43
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44
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possession of this presentation or other information referred to herein should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Any failure to comply with these restrictions may constitute a violation of the securities laws of
such jurisdictions and neither the Company nor any other person accepts liability to any person in relation thereto.
The securities in the Company are only suitable for investors who understand the potential risk of capital loss and that there may be limited liquidity in the securities of the Company, for whom an investment in the securities is part of a
diversified investment programme and who fully understand and are willing to assume the risks involved in such an investment programme. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation concerning the issue. The price and
value of securities may go down as well as up. When considering what further action you should take you are recommended to immediately consult, if you are resident in Ireland, a professional adviser who is authorised or exempted
under the European Communities (Markets in Financial Instruments) Regulations (Nos. 1 to 3) 2007 or the Investment Intermediaries Act 1995 (as amended) or if you are resident in the United Kingdom, a professional adviser who is
authorised or exempted under the Financial Services and Markets Act, 2000, or another appropriately authorised professional adviser if you are in a territory outside Ireland or the United Kingdom.