people and demography world population growth across …people and demography a combination of...

People and demographyA combination of declining mortality rates,prolonged life expectancy and youthful pop-ulations in regions characterized by high fer-tility has contributed to world populationgrowth. While growth rates have been slowingsince the late 1960s, the world’s populationhas nevertheless doubled since then to 6.9 bil-lion. Population growth is generally the high-est where income levels are low; and it is anincreasingly urban phenomenon. For the firsttime in 2008, more people lived in cities thanin rural areas.

World population growth across decades

1990-1999

2000-2010

% p.a.

Developed 0.40 0.40

East Asia 1.22 0.75

Latin America

& Caribbean 1.66 1.24

South Asia 2.04 1.56

Sub-Saharan Africa 2.65 2.50

Annual population growth(% p.a., 2000-10)

Georgia

Moldova

Latvia

Bulgaria

Armenia

Bosnia &Herzegovina

Ukraine

Lithuania

Romania

Belarus

Madagascar

Angola

Benin

Chad

Liberia

Uganda

Niger

Yemen

Afghanistan

United ArabEmirates

−1.1

−1.0

−0.8

−0.8

−0.7

−0.7

−0.6

−0.5

−0.4

−0.3

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.5

3.6

4.5

7.4

Countries withhighest values

Countries withlowest values

Median age in countries(years, 2010)

Niger

Uganda

Mali

Afghanistan

Angola

DR Congo

Zambia

Malawi

Burkina Faso

Chad

Croatia

Greece

Belgium

Bulgaria

Slovenia

Austria

Finland

Italy

Germany

Japan

15.4

15.6

16.1

16.3

16.3

16.4

16.4

16.5

16.7

16.8

42.3

42.3

42.3

42.4

42.5

42.6

43.0

44.0

45.6

46.7



Urban and rural population of the world (billion, 1960-2010)

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Rural Urban

2

Fertility rate (births per woman, 2009)

No

Dat

a

< 1.

9

1.9

− 2.

6

2.7

− 3.

4

3.5

− 4.

9

> 4.

9

3

Capital and investmentInvestment drives growth and development. Itis particularly important in agriculture giventhe sector’s strong impact on welfare. In-deed, countries that have successfully reducedpoverty and hunger are usually those withhigh investment rates per agricultural worker.Investment in new machinery, infrastructureand technology are vital to produce more, andmore efficiently in the future. However, mea-sured against GDP, there has been a slow-down in the rate of capital formation in pri-mary agriculture in both developed and devel-oping countries.

Agricultural capital stock across regions

2006 2007

billion US$

Developed 2 024 2 016

East Asia 755 761

Latin America & Caribbean 708 713

South Asia 663 675

Sub-Saharan Africa 414 422

Agricultural capital formation(% of GDP, 2006-2007)

CentralAfrican Rep.

Paraguay

Dominican Rep.

Guatemala

Tajikistan

Lao PDR

Togo

Myanmar

Nepal

Mozambique

Lesotho

Chad

Burkina Faso

Guinea

Malawi

Mali

Niger

Burundi

Ethiopia

Mongolia

1.8

1.8

1.9

2.2

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.3

5.0

5.0

6.0

6.6

7.2

8.2

9.4

10.1

14.2

30.3


Agricultural capital formation(% of GDP, 2006-2007)

Slovakia

Panama

Romania

Ireland

Chile

Belarus

Portugal

Ukraine

Nicaragua

FYR Macedonia

Cambodia

Australia

Bosnia &Herzegovina

Moldova

Albania

Turkmenistan

Côte d'Ivoire

Ecuador

Uruguay

Afghanistan

−0.1

−0.1

−0.2

−0.2

−0.2

−0.3

−0.3

−0.3

−0.4

−0.4

−0.4

−0.4

−0.4

−0.4

−0.6

−0.8

−1.1

−1.3

−1.3

−2.7

Countries with lowest values

Components of world agricultural capital stock (billion US$, 1993-2007)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Land Development Livestock Machinery & Equipment Plantation

4

Annual change in agricultural capital stock (% of GDP, 2007)

No

Dat

a

< 0

0 −

0.5

0.5

− 1

1 −

2

> 2

5

InfrastructureOne of the key factors holding back agricul-tural development in many low-income coun-tries is the absence of adequate rural infras-tructure. The availability of rural transporta-tion networks, electrification, storage andcooling facilities would be a prerequisite foragriculture sectors to thrive. Improved in-frastructure links farmers to markets, reducestransactions costs and increases the competi-tiveness of the agriculture sector.

Share of rural population with access to elec-tricity

%, 2008

Developed 99.5

East Asia 86.5

Latin America & Caribbean 74.0

South Asia 51.2

Sub-Saharan Africa 14.3

Lead time to import(days, 2009*)

Benin

Colombia

Algeria

Spain

Tanzania

Angola

Myanmar

Cameroon

Jamaica

Libya

Kazakhstan

Mongolia

Venezuela

Burkina Faso

Uganda

Zimbabwe

Bolivia

Iran

Sierra Leone

Chad

7.0

7.0

7.1

7.1

7.1

8.0

8.4

8.9

10.0

10.0

11.5

12.0

12.1

14.0

14.0

18.0

28.3

28.3

32.0

35.0


Lead time to export(days, 2009*)

Liberia

Haiti

Malawi

Algeria

Myanmar

Ethiopia

Mali

Uganda

Angola

Azerbaijan

Colombia

Tajikistan

Zambia

Venezuela

Jamaica

Mongolia

Bolivia

Zimbabwe

Sudan

Chad

4.0

4.2

4.2

4.6

4.6

5.0

5.0

5.5

6.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

9.2

9.4

10.0

14.0

15.0

25.0

39.0

74.0


Quality of infrastructure (1=poor; 5=excellent, 2010)

0

1

2

3

4

5

Developed East AsiaLatin America& Caribbean

South Asia Sub−Saharan Africa

6

Quality of infrastructure (1=poor; 5=excellent, 2010)

No

Dat

a

< 2.

1

2.1

− 2.

5

2.6

− 3.

1

3.2

− 3.

8

> 3.

8

7

InputsAdequate access to inputs is vital for agricul-tural productivity growth. Expanding fertilizeruse has boosted production in Asia and partsof Latin America. Similarly, plant breedinghas helped to bolster productivity by adaptingcultivated varieties to local conditions and bymaking them more resilient. In other regions,notably sub-Saharan Africa, the uptake of agri-cultural inputs is relatively low as it is oftencheaper to expand cropland to meet higherproduction.

Energy use by agriculture as a share of totalenergy use

%, 2009

Developed regions 1.7

East Asia 1.9


South Asia 3.6


Fertilizer consumption per hectare of arableland (kg, 2008)

Benin

Eritrea

Mozambique

Tajikistan

Namibia

Niger

DR Congo

Congo

Guinea

Malawi

Croatia

China

Ireland

Korea

Colombia

Chile

Costa Rica

Egypt

Malaysia

New Zealand

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.4

0.9

1.1

1.5

1.7

388

468

480

480

492

589

707

724

930

1 720



Pesticide consumption per hectare of arableland (kg, 2008)

Niger

Lao PDR

Burkina Faso

Kyrgyzstan

FYR Macedonia

Guinea

Tunisia

Myanmar

Azerbaijan

Yemen

Nicaragua

Bangladesh

Switzerland

Italy

Portugal

Colombia

Netherlands

Chile

Japan

China

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

8.8

9.8

10.1

11.4

13.0

15.3

17.6

20.0

26.5

27.6



Fertilizer consumption per hectare of arable land (kg, 2002-08)

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

High incomeLatin America &Caribbean

South Asia Sub−Saharan Africa

8

Fertilizer consumption per hectare of arable land (kg, 2008)

No

Dat

a

< 10

0

100

− 40

0

400

− 10

00

1000

− 1

700

> 17

00

9

Land and water resourcesWith ever increasing demands on agricultureboth for food and feedstock for industry, andalso a need to preserve resources for futuregenerations, the finite capacity of land and wa-ter resources has become the centre of debate.So far, land and water management systemshave been able to meet the demands placedon them, for example through the use of high-input irrigated agriculture. Often though, in-tensification has come at the expense of theenvironment. Climate change will bring addi-tional risk, such as temperature, humidity andwater stress.

Arable land potential

million hectares, as of 2010

Developed 488.7

East Asia 130.8


South Asia 13.2


Arable land per person(ha, 2009)

Singapore

Kuwait

United ArabEmirates

Korea

Jordan

Japan

Lebanon

Egypt

Papua N.Guinea

Colombia

Belarus

Paraguay

Lithuania

Ukraine

Argentina

RussianFederation

Niger

Canada

Kazakhstan

Australia

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

5.8

6.0

6.1

7.1

7.7

8.5

10.0

13.4

14.8

21.5



Renewable water resources per person(m3, 2008)

Kuwait

United ArabEmirates

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

Libya

Singapore

Jordan

Israel

Algeria

Tunisia

Chile

Lao PDR

Liberia

Bolivia

Peru

New Zealand

Norway

Canada

Papua N.Guinea

Congo

8.0

22.0

90.0

90.0

96.0

121

155

245

334

443

54 376

54 565

60 480

63 696

66 504

75 642

79 024

86 177

119 499

211 114



Annual growth of cropland (%, 1970-2009)

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Developed East Asia Latin America & Caribbean South Asia Sub−Saharan Africa

10

Arable land per person (ha, 2009)

No

Dat

a

< 0.

07

0.07

− 0

.15

0.15

− 0

.3

0.3

− 0.

5

> 0.

5

11

LabourLabour force participation rates are usuallyhighest in the poorest countries as few can af-ford to remain outside of the labour force. Theagriculture sector, in particular, offers workingopportunities for the poor in many develop-ing countries, often as self-employed or unpaidfamily workers. Poverty is also the principaldriver of the high rate of child labour in agri-culture. Population growth will create addi-tional pressures on labour markets. Currently,economies around the world are not generat-ing sufficient employment opportunities to ab-sorb additions to the working-age population.

Labour force participation rates across regions

%, 2010*

Developed 60.3

East Asia 72.5


South Asia 57.1


Employment in agriculture(%, 2010*)

Argentina

Singapore

United Kingdom

United States

Israel

Belgium

Kuwait

Germany

Sweden

Canada

Lesotho

Papua N.Guinea

Tanzania

Guinea

Ethiopia

Madagascar

Chad

Lao PDR

Burkina Faso

Rwanda

0.8

1.1

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.5

72.3

72.3

74.6

76.0

80.2

82.0

83.0

85.4

88.8

90.1



Share of female labour force employed in agri-culture (%)

Iraq

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

Syria

Pakistan

Lebanon

Egypt

Jordan

Turkey

Libya

Lao PDR

Burkina Faso

Uganda

Guinea

Ethiopia

Madagascar

Mozambique

Tanzania

Rwanda

Burundi

13.8

17.4

19.9

21.1

21.7

22.3

22.4

23.3

24.0

24.7

77.7

78.2

78.3

79.2

80.7

84.2

84.8

86.3

86.7

91.0



Share of employment in agriculture (%, 1991-2010)

0

20

40

60

80

1995 2000 2005 2010

Developed East Asia South AsiaLatin America& Caribbean

Sub−Saharan Africa

12

Share of employment in agriculture (%, 2010)

No

Dat

a

< 11

11 −

27

28 −

46

47 −

65

> 65

13

MacroeconomyChanges in the wider economy and macroe-conomic policy affect the performance of theagriculture sector. Higher economic growthraises incomes and hence demand. Changinginterest rates influence capital investments,land values and storage levels, while infla-tion affects input prices, revenues, and creditcosts. Fluctuations in exchange rates have animportant bearing on international competi-tiveness and trade flows. The agriculture sec-tor, buoyed by very high commodity prices,has demonstrated resilience during the currentglobal economic turmoil.

Agricultural value added(% of GDP, 1960-2009)

10

15

20

25

30

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

East Asia&Pacific

Europe &Central Asia

LatianAmerica &Caribbean

Sub−SaharanAfrica

GDP per capita(ADAM: TIDY INTERVALS, 2010)

Burundi

DR Congo

Liberia

Malawi

Sierra Leone

Ethiopia

Niger

Madagascar

Eritrea

CentralAfrican Rep.

Ireland

Canada

Netherlands

United States

Sweden

Australia

Denmark

United ArabEmirates

Switzerland

Norway

180

186

226

321

325

350

381

391

397

435

45 688

46 214

47 172

47 283

48 874

55 589

56 147

59 716

67 246

84 443



Real GDP growth(%, 2009-2010)

Haiti

Greece

Madagascar

Venezuela

Croatia

Kyrgyzstan

Romania

Jamaica

Ireland

Latvia

Botswana

Peru

Zimbabwe

Congo

Sri Lanka

Argentina

Turkmenistan

India

Singapore

Paraguay

−5.1

−4.5

−2.0

−1.9

−1.4

−1.4

−1.3

−1.1

−1.0

−0.3

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.1

9.1

9.2

9.2

10.4

14.5

15.3



Total GDP (US$ billion, current, 1980-2010)

10000

20000

30000

40000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Developed Countries Developing Countries

14

Agricultural value added (% of GDP, 2009*)

No

Dat

a

< 6

6 −

14

15 −

24

25 −

39

> 39

15

people and demography world population growth across …people and demography a combination of...

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