pbs/las vegas - 4/13/05 david b. liroff, vp/cto wgbh boston 1 the rocky road to digital v. 9.0 the...

PBS/Las Vegas - 4/13/05 DAVID B. LIROFF, VP/CTO WGBH BOSTON 1

THE ROCKY ROAD TO DIGITAL v. 9.0

THE MEDIA ENVIRONMENT:

PRINCIPAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE


What we’re going to talk about . . .

Principal drivers of change in the media environment

Some consequences of those changes Opportunities for public broadcasters Priorities


“With most information technology innovations, we have consistently over-estimated the speed with which they will unfold and under-estimated their eventual impact.”

(attributed to Bill Gates)


And yet, the direction of change in the media environment is clear:

None of us should be surprised by what will happen in the next several years. These changes will affect us all, as individual citizens and consumers, and in how we do our work to fulfill our missions.


It is not an overstatement to say that the transition from analog to digital technologies is changing everything - content creation, distribution, content packaging, how our audiences access our services.


Despite Bill Gates’ caveat about over-estimating the rate of change, in recent months we appear to have arrived at a “tipping point” at which the rate of change in the media environment is accelerating exponentially.


Depending upon your point of view, the emerging media environment is either:

1) An ideal alignment of the stars, in which it will be possible for public service media organizations to address the needs of their audiences far more effectively than in the past,

OR


2) It’s a “perfect storm” of disruptive technologies, in which marketplace forces will prevail, making it increasingly difficult to sustain legacy public broadcasting business models and to address the public interest.


At the very least, we are at what Intel chairman Andy Grove has referred to as a “strategic inflection point”, which is that point in the life of a business or institution at which fewer and fewer of the old rules apply.

We know that if we continue to do business by the old rules, there is a high probability of failure.

But the new rules haven’t been written yet.


Principal Drivers of Change



Computer processing power continues to double every 18 months at no increase in price. (Moore’s Law)

The cost of digital storage for text, audio, video data is dropping by 50% every 10 months

Advances in compression continue, squeezing increasing amounts of information down same-sized channels or ”pipes”, increasing choice



Conversion from analog to digital technologies

For cable, one analog channel = eight digital channels

Replacement of analog broadcasting by digital television and radio broadcasting increases number of broadcast program services



Digital file formats facilitate cross-platform exchanges,

manipulation of content for display on various devices from cell phones to large-screen HDTV displays

convergence of functions e.g. cell phones and handheld devices which “do everything”

Shift to Internet Protocol provides universal language for voice (VoIP), audio and video



Bandwidth to homes, schools, businesses continues to increase

broadband now in more than 30% of US homes, emerging as audio and video distribution platform side-by-side with broadcast, satellite and cable

fiber to the home replacing copper for video, telephone, broadband service



Verizon’s (and other Baby Bell’s) “Fiber to the Premises”

maximum capacities fiber-optic cable 400,000 mbps coax 850 mbps copper twisted pair 10 mpbs

consumer offer FiOS - 30 mbps DSL - 1.5 mbps



Broadband Over Powerline (BPL) FCC approved nationwide rollout in

10/04 last “100 feet” are wireless

no need for individual truck-rolls also useful to power companies to monitor

their systems



Shift from wired to wireless technology omnipresent wireless connectivity with cell

phones, WiFi, WiMax, PDAs as universal handheld multimedia devices for data, audio, video, telephony

cities deploying universally-available wireless

principal driver of economic development, educational access



Satellite distribution of audio, video and data

provides increasing number of channel choices

(e.g. DirecTV, DishTV, Sirius, XM)



Technologies which ignore geography (e.g. Internet, satellite, wireless) erode geographic market boundaries

exacerbate battles between wholesalers and retailers over who delivers services directly to consumers

e.g. Sirius/XM; Comcast/PBS kids channel; PBS.org; NPR.org

local becomes global, e.g. audio/video streaming on line

Undermines foundation of network/member station relationships



the wholesaler/retailer relationship True Value Hardware has 6000 member stores

worldwide owned by individual storeowners, a retailer-

owned buying cooperative < www.truevalue.com >

“True Value is no longer selling products on-line”

Ace Hardware has 5100 member stores worldwide < www.acehardware.com > 3/12 thru 4/30/05 - order on-line; free shipping if

using “ship to store” option



proliferation of GPS (Global Positioning

System)-equipped receivers/display devices

facilitates delivery of location-specific content

and services

evolution of home media servers



increasingly sophisticated database management and data mining capabilities enable personalization/ customization to match audiences with content in which they are interested assisted by collaborative filtering,

recommender systems, relationships engines (“others who ordered this book also

ordered . .”)



sophisticated search tools required to find stuff on the Internet,

which is turning into a map of the world as large as the world itself

Google and Yahoo audio/video search services, soon Microsoft

check out http://video.google.com/



http://search.yahoo.com/cc “Options: Find content I can use for commercial

purposes. Find content I can modify, adapt, or build upon. ..... This Yahoo! Search service finds content across the Web that has a Creative Commons license. While most stuff you find on the web has a full copyright, this search helps you find content published by authors that want you to share or reuse it, under certain conditions.”



miniaturization, wearables, incorporate

ever-smaller computer devices into everyday

objects, including clothing



Development of “cognitive” or “software defined” receivers has potential to vastly expand signal-carrying capacity of over-the-air spectrum

replaces “hard mapped” frequency assignments with intelligent receivers operating like cell phones or in-home wireless phones, changing channels invisibly to assure optimum reception

could facilitate sharing by additional users of already -occupied spectrum without interference, e.g. by unlicensed devices


Consequences


Consequences

Audiences becoming used to accessing whatever content they want, when they want it.

Shift from real-time to non-real time use of media content using DVRs/PVRs, video on demand

Broadband facilitates on-demand distribution, emerges as real time/non-real time audio/video/interactive distribution platform

(view Comcast spots)


Consequences

Increasing capacity of packaged media (e.g. HD-DVDs)

Proliferation of iPods, MP3 players, podcasting, soon video iPods see < www.pod101.com >

Videogames emerging as content platforms for education and training, as well as for entertainment, storytelling, on-line connectivity check out Sony PlayStation Portable


Consequences

accelerating audience segmentation/ fragmentation

technology facilitates aggregation of self-identified, self-selected communities of interest organized around media content and services


Consequences

Inability of legacy audience measurement tools to track increasingly-complex media use behaviors

Nielsen having difficulty tracking use of DVRs, VoD, broadband, let alone tracking viewing of hundreds of conventional video choices, multi-tasking with Internet use

ratings, *reported* viewership of individual “channels” will continue to decline

sample-based measurement being replaced with proprietary direct measurement technologies, e.g. VoD, TiVo


Consequences

Erosion of effectiveness of interruption marketing, e.g. commercial advertising, traditional on-air fundraising

challenge for PTV: Develop alternatives to traditional on-air fundraising before passing tipping point of core audience alienation


Consequences

lowered threshold to entry for content creators, distributors

barrier to entry to high technical quality also lowered

plummeting prices for HD production, post-production equipment reducing cost of “conventional” production as well


Consequences

technology facilitates interaction between content/service providers and their audiences

audiences no longer necessarily anonymous to communicators or to each other

“markets are conversations” - < www.cluetrain.com > e.g. the “blogosphere”

modifies mass comm model; evolving to “mass customization”

facilitates interactivity, not just two way but peer-to-peer


Consequences

need to understand viewers’ and listeners’ increasingly-complex media use behaviors

initial findings of CPB-funded NPS research


Opportunities

Identify and exploit opportunities provided by geographic location, local retail presence, physical presence in community

Exploit new opportunities to connect audiences with content and services in which they’re interested


Opportunities

Increasing importance of station’s curatorial role, trusted “intelligent agent” representing known editorial sensibilities, “concierge,” guide


Opportunities

“The Long Tail” phenomenon<http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.10/tail_pr.>

(session at 3:30 today)

“The Long Tail rebellion” (re: “Eyes on the Prize”)

< www.downhillbattle.org >


Opportunities

need for new rights protocols to facilitate cross-platform as well as extended shelf-life distribution

check out < www.creativecommons.org > (Lawrence Lessig/USC School of Law);

The Berkman Center for Internet and Society at Harvard Law School <cyber.law.harvard.edu/media/wp2005> “Copyright and Digital Media in a Post- Napster World: 2005 update”


BBC Creative Archive Initiative (Paul Gerhardt/BBC)

free access to BBC content for learning, for creativity, for pleasure

members of public will be able to download cleared TV and radio content, and will be encouraged to modify and create own versions to be shared

(“You’ve heard of the long tail - this is the long march”)

They’ve developed a new license, based on “the creative commons”

“we want our audiences to rip, mix and share their BBC”


BBC Creative Archive Initiative

tentative rollout: nature and science in ‘05; news in ‘06; sports in ‘07; drama in ‘08

not everything immediately - based on user demand

hope to foster a culture of sharing content and user creation, side by side with conventional professional production

18 month pilot (4/05 start) will test user demand, understanding of and compliance with license terms; impact on existing and potential enterprises


BBC Creative Archive Initiative

objective is “to work in partnership with other broadcasters and public sector organizations (e.g. Channel 4, British Film Institute, British Library, Open University, Imperial War Museum, National Museum of Science and Industry) to create a public and legal domain of audiovisual material for the benefit of everyone in the UK”

hope to have Creative Archive fully operational by 2010


Opportunities

TiVos/DVRs, VoD as opportunities, not threats to increased viewing


Opportunities

Exploration of new mission-consistent business models subscription models (e.g. Consumer Reports

on-line) permission marketing (“opt-in” - junk mail

is direct mail in which recipient has no interest)


Opportunities

Create mission-appropriate alliances with for-profit media

Create for-profit subsidiaries Google advertising model


Opportunities

collaborations with other public service organizations (e.g. universities, libraries, museums, cultural institutions) evolution toward on-demand digital

libraries creates opportunities to make common cause


Opportunities

public broadcasters emerging as “public service publishers”(see Dennis Haarsager’s < www.technology360.org > )

position public broadcaster as provider of production and creative services, telecommunications services to other public service organizations


Priorities

stay focused on mission secure expanded rights to content exploit emerging distribution platforms

Video On Demand, Satellite Radio (XM, Sirius), Home Video, Broadband, Podcasting

secure cable carriage for digital broadcast channels

Recent NCTA/APTS carriage agreement assures post-transition full-bandwidth DTV carriage, full-bandwidth carriage of one station per market during transition within duplication ceilings


Priorities

increase audience research efforts to track increasingly-complex media use behavior

collaborate with like-minded public service organizations (universities, libraries, museums)

stay focused on mission


What we’ve talked about . . .

Principal drivers of change in the media environment

Some consequences of those changes Opportunities for public broadcasters Priorities


THE ROCKY ROAD TO DIGITAL v. 9.0

THE MEDIA ENVIRONMEN T:

PRINCIPAL DRIVERS OF CHANGE

pbs/las vegas - 4/13/05 david b. liroff, vp/cto wgbh boston 1 the rocky road to digital v. 9.0 the...

Documents

vpcto wgbh boston

pbslas vegas

choice slide

bill gates slide

rate of change

direction of change

emerging media environment

digital technologies