paul vanraden and john cole animal improvement programs laboratory beltsville, md, usa...
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Paul VanRaden and John ColeAnimal Improvement Programs LaboratoryBeltsville, MD, [email protected]
2004
2004
2004
Planned Changes to Models and Trait
Definitions
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November 2004 Changes
Pregnancy checks used in days open predictions (130-250 DIM)
Longevity for foreign Holstein bulls Single-trait longevity from Interbull Multi-trait processing at AIPL Foreign bull mean PL REL = 46% (was 38%), NM$ REL = 72% (was 71%)
15 countries (Other breeds Feb. 2005)
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2005 Trait and Model Changes
Adjust for past inbreeding (F) and expected future inbreeding (EFI)
Adjust for differing parity SD
Express yield PTA to 36-month age instead of mature equivalent
Use cow instead of bull base for DPR
Use 3.00 instead of breed means for SCS
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SCS Breed Means and Bases
SCS HOL JER BSW GUEAY
SMS
H
1995 3.10 3.31 3.09 3.212.9
33.0
3
2000 3.09 3.34 2.94 3.312.9
73.0
7
February 2005 base
3.00 3.00 3.00 3.003.0
03.0
0
PTA base change
-.11 -.32 -.05 -.23+.0
8-.05
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Daughter Pregnancy Rate Bases
PTA DPRHO
LJER
BSW
GUE
AYS
MSH
1995 cow mean
.4 .2 .6 -.3 -.1 .5
PTA progress -.1 -.1 -.2 -.2 .0 .0
PTA base change
-.3 -.1 -.4 +.5 +.1 -.5
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Inbreeding AdjustmentsVanRaden and Smith, 1999, JDS 82:2771
F (past inbrd.) and EFI (future inbrd.) Regression on F in animal model (PTA0)
PTAEFI = PTA0 + EFI * byield.F
Corr (current PTA, PTAEFI) = .9976
Genetic trend for PTAEFI is reduced Yield trend 6% less, DPR 14% lower, PL
25% lower, SCS becomes slightly unfavorable
Predict NM$EFI = NM$ + 7 (Fdaus) – 14 (EFI)
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Use in Mating Programs
Replace EFI with progeny F PA NM$ = (NM$sire + NM$dam)/2 Progeny merit = PA NM$ – 14 [Fprog - (EFIsire - EFIdam)/2]
Similar to calving ease NM$ includes average value of SCE
SCE has higher value for heifer matings, lower for cow matings
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Parity SD Adjustments
Multiplicative or additive adjustments? Neither makes variances quite equal Combined approach (Funk et al, 1991 JDS)
Lactation 1-5 deviations multiplied by [1.06 .99 .94 .89 .85] (milk, fat, protein) [ .97 .99 1.01 1.02 1.02] (SCS) [1.03 1.00 .98 .97 .96] (DPR)
Helps pass Interbull trend test 1 Corr (official, adjusted PTA) = .9998
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Age Adjustment for Yield PTA
Use 36 months vs. mature equivalent Standardized and actual means similar Age factors are estimated more precisely More fair when breed maturity rates differ
Proposed previously by USDA McDaniel (1973, JDS 56:959), Schutz (1994) Recommended by Holstein GAC, Oct 1994 Vetoed by Council in 1994 “to allow the
industry time to consider the nature and effect of such a change.”
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Breed SD and Maturity Rates Age factors from Schutz, 1994
Yield traits
HOL JER BSW GUE AYSMS
H
2000 SD / 1990 SD
1.11 1.18 1.12 1.051.0
51.0
5
ME / 24 mo
1.28 1.27 1.37 1.201.2
21.2
9
ME / 36 mo
1.10 1.10 1.15 1.051.1
01.1
5
Net change in PTA SD
1.02 1.06 .98 1.02 .95 .88
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Actual vs Standardized Means
(current CA data, all lactations)
Herd Averages Actual
36-month Equiv.
Mature Equiv.
Milk22,08
021,877 23,723
Fat 797 792 855
Protein 670 678 718
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Genetic Trend 1995-2000(cow birth year)
PTA HOL JERBSW GUE AYS
MSH
Net Merit
155 128 146 100 76 57
Prot (lbs)
19 16 16 12 8 6
Fat (lbs) 18 16 19 16 9 6
Milk (lbs)
592 442 479 420 259 225
Prod Life .3 .4 .4 .2 .2 .6
SCS .01 .01 -.04 .02 -.01 .02
DPR (%) -.1 -.1 -.2 -.2 .0 .0
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Calving Ease Changes (Feb. 2005)
Joint BSW-HOL evaluation (pending NAAB approval)
11,793 BSW, 3431 BSW-HOL calvings
12 million HOL calvings
Includes breed-of-MGS effect
Uses HOL (co)variance components and breed-specific bases
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Calving Ease Model Validation
Results passed Interbull trend validation
Joint BSW-HOL results compared to single-breed evaluations
Correlations showed BSW data did not adversely affect HOL results.
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Product-moment Correlations
Rank Correlations
Breed
Sire Sol
MGS
Sol
Sire
PDB
MGS
PDB
Sire Sol
MGS
Sol
Sire PDB
MGS
PDB
BSW .949.88
9.84
4.79
5.90
0.82
7.816
.779
HOL .999.99
9.99
9.99
9.99
9.99
9.992
.970
Within-breed vs Joint Evaluation
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Summary for Calving Ease
HOL BSW
Sire Calving Ease 8.3 ± 1.6 7.6 ± 1.1
Daughter Calving Ease
7.6 ± 1.1 5.9 ± 0.8
SCE Reliability 63.7 55.9
DCE Reliability 58.1 54.1
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Future Research
Genetic evaluation of crossbreds
Productive life trait definition Lactation length, yield correlations Trend tests prevent inbreeding adj.
Yield trait model improvements Mendelian sampling variance Persistency, rate of maturity
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Summary
Longevity from Interbull in Nov 2004
Brown Swiss calving ease in Feb 2005
Adjustments for inbreeding and for differing parity SD in Feb 2005
Age adjustment to 36 months instead of mature will affect breed means and SD
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Longevity Genetic Correlations
Interbull, Sept. 2004
USA
CAN
DEU
NLD
FRA
ITA GBR
USA
.88 .82 .79 .67 .72 .82
CAN
.88 .84 .75 .70 .75 .82
DEU
.82 .84 .80 .66 .77 .83
NLD
.79 .75 .80 .79 .70 .65
FRA
.67 .70 .66 .79 .67 .60
ITA .72 .75 .77 .70 .67 .70
GBR
.82 .82 .83 .65 .60 .70
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Sire Calving Ease Correlations
Interbull, Oct. 2004
USA
CAN
DEU
NLD
FRA
ITA DNK
USA
.76 .61 .78 .88 .66 .90
CAN
.76 .74 .76 .79 .74 .88
DEU
.61 .74 .70 .73 .61 .78
NLD
.78 .76 .70 .85 .61 .86
FRA
.88 .79 .73 .85 .72 .91
ITA .66 .74 .61 .61 .72 .78
DNK
.90 .88 .78 .86 .91 .78
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Daughter Calving Ease Correlations
Interbull, Oct. 2004
USA
CAN
DEU
NLD
FRA
ITA DNK
USA
.71 .68 .79 .90 .84 .77
CAN
.71 .87 .87 .72 .58 .91
DEU
.68 .87 .87 .58 .61 .80
NLD
.79 .87 .87 .75 .67 .84
FRA
.90 .72 .58 .75 .82 .77
ITA .84 .58 .61 .67 .82 .61
DNK
.77 .91 .80 .84 .77 .61