Pathways to Permanent Residence:

Transition MattersMetropolis Conference , March 12th -15th , 2014

Research and Evaluation Branch

2

• Concepts and Definitions

• Transitions: Trends– Volumes, Shares of Permanent Residence Admissions– Closer look at the economic category

• Economic Outcomes of permanent residents (PR) who transitioned from temporary residence

– Characteristics of TRs (Canadian work experience, immigration category, skill level) and their post-transition economic outcomes

• Conclusions

In this presentation …

3

• Temporary residents are grouped according to the main reason they have been authorized to enter and stay temporarily in Canada. They include temporary foreign workers, foreign students, humanitarian population, and other temporary residents.

• A transition from the temporary resident to permanent resident population refers to a change from temporary to permanent resident status (e.g. from temporary foreign worker (TFW) to federal skilled worker (FSW) immigration category).

• Over the last 5-6 years policy changes have been implemented to make Canada more attractive as a PR destination for especially skilled temporary residents with Canadian work/study experience.

• Several programs have a built-in pathways to permanent residence: – Canadian Experience Class (CEC)– Québec Experience Program (PEQ)– Federal Skilled Worker (FSW)– Provincial Nominee Programs (PNP)– Live in Care Giver Program (LCP)

What is a “transition” to permanent residence?

4

Entries of temporary residents / Permanent resident admissionsCanada, 1995 to 2012

• Steady increase in the entries of temporary residents since the 1990s, particularly among TFW and FS.

• TFW (213,600 people) accounted for 51% of all temporary resident entries in 2012; FS (104,800 people) accounted for 25%.

• Between 1998 and 2010, permanent residence admissions ranged from 174,200 to 280,700.

199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000Permanent resident admissions by immigration category

Family class Economic immigrants - p.a. Economic immigrants - s.d. RefugeesOther immigrants

Year

Thou

sand

s

Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada, RDM, Transitions FF 2012 extract; and RDM, Permanent residents, De-cember 2012 extract.

25%

26%36%

9%

3% 2012

199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000Entries of temporary residents by yearly status

Foreign workers Foreign students Humanitarian population Other

Year

Thou

sand

s

51%

25%

5% 19%

2012

p.a. = principal applicants.d. = spouses and dependants

5

Transitions from temporary to permanent residenceCanada, 1995 to 2012

• Transitions roughly stable around 44,400 on average between 1995-2003, then increasing both in absolute number and share of permanent residence.

• In 2012, transitions accounted for 79,200 (or 31%) PR admissions.

• In 2012, transitions accounted for 43% of all economic immigrant p.a. admissions – from 15% in 2002.

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Transitions as a share of permanent resident admissions by immigration category

Family class Economic immigrants - p.a.Economic immigrants - s.d. RefugeesAll categories

Year

Perc

ent

Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada, RDM, Transitions FF 2012 extract; and RDM, Permanent residents, Decem-ber 2012 extract.

Number of permanent resident admissions and transitions to permanent residence, Canada, 1995-2012

199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Total permanent resident admissionsTotal transitions to permanent residence

Year

Thou

sand

s

6

• In 2012, transitions accounted for a total of 29,400 admissions of economic p.a., up from a low of 8,900 in 2002.

• Except for the CEC and LCP which are entirely driven from transitions, PN p.a. admissions are increasingly coming from transitions (63% in 2012 versus 23% for SW p.a.).

Transitions and economic immigration (principal applicants)Canada, 1995 to 2012

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Number of transitions into economic immigration by program,principal applicants , Canada , 1995-2012

Skilled workers - p.a. Canadian experience class - p.a.Provincial/territorial nominees - p.a. Business - p.a.Live-in caregivers - p.a.

Year

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Transitions as a share of permanent resident admissions ,selected economic programs, principal applicants , Canada , 1995-

2012

Skilled workers - p.a. Provincial/territorial nominees - p.a.Business - p.a.

Year

Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada, RDM, Transitions FF 2012 extract; and RDM, Permanent residents, Decem-ber 2012 extract.

7

Incidence of Employment earnings of Permanent Residents who transitioned from TR – with and without a Work Permit (WP)

Incidence of Employment Earnings by Transition Type and Years Since Landing, tax year 2011 All Immigrants Economic PAs

• Incidence of employment earnings is highest for those who previously worked in Canada as a TR, this is especially true for those who transitioned to Economic PAs

– In the first year post-transition (YSL=1), PRs with previous work experience in Canada had an incidence of employment earnings equal to 81%. The comparable incidence was 51% for those who transitioned without Canadian work experience and 62% for PRs without a previous TR status.

– For Economic PAs, in the first year post-transition (YSL=1), those with previous work experience in Canada had an incidence of employment earnings equal to 92%. The comparable incidence was 79% for those who transitioned without Canadian work experience and 70% for PRs without a previous TR status.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

TR --> PR (WP) TR --> PR (no WP) PR (no TR)

YSL = 1 YSL = 3 YSL = 5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

TR --> PR (WP) TR --> PR (no WP) PR (no TR)

YSL = 1 YSL = 3 YSL = 5

Source: Slides 7 to 11 IMDB, 2011

8

Employment Earnings of Permanent Residents who transitioned from TR – with and without a Work Permit (WP)

Average Employment Earnings by Transition Type and Years Since Landing, tax year 2011 All Immigrants Economic PA

• Average employment earnings are also highest for those who previously worked in Canada as TR and, again, higher for those who transitioned to Economic PAs

– In the first year post-transition (YSL=1), PRs with previous work experience in Canada had average employment earnings equal to $38,000. The comparable average was $18,100 for those who transitioned without Canadian work experience and $20,000 for PRs without a previous TR status.

– For Economic PAs, in the first year post-transition (YSL=1), those with previous work experience in Canada had average employment earnings equal to $44,000. The comparable average was $24,000 for those who transitioned without Canadian work experience and $26,000 for PRs without a previous TR status.

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

TR --> PR (WP) TR --> PR (no WP) PR (no TR)

YSL = 1 YSL = 3 YSL = 5

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

TR --> PR (WP) TR --> PR (no WP) PR (no TR)

YSL = 1 YSL = 3 YSL = 5

9

Employment Earnings of Permanent Residents– transitions (with WP) and non-transitions (no previous TR status)

Average Employment Earnings by Immigrant Category by Years Since Landing, tax year 2011 Transition from TR (with WP) Non-transition (No previous TR status)

• PRs in all immigrant categories benefit from previous Canadian work experience, with higher average employment earnings than their counterparts who transitioned without having worked as a TR and, as displayed above, relative to their counterparts with no previous TR status.

– In the first year post-transition (YSL=1), PRs with previous work experience in Canada had an earnings advantage of $18,000 (90%) over those who did not transition (no previous TR status). For the different immigrant categories the comparable earnings advantage at entry was: Economic PAs ($18,000, 69%) Economic SDs ($14,500, 83%) Family Class ($15,200, 88%) Refugees ($7,000, 50% )

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

ECO PA ECO SD FC REF ALL

YSL = 1 YSL = 3 YSL = 5

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

ECO PA ECO SD FC REF ALL

YSL = 1 YSL = 3 YSL = 5

10

Employment Earnings of Permanent Residents – transitions (with WP) and non-transitions (no previous TR status)

Average Employment Earnings by Immigrant Category by Years Since Landing, tax year 2011 Transition from TR (with WP) Non-transition (No previous TR status)

• Since transitioned Economic PAs experience better economic outcomes than other transitioned categories, it interesting to look at the subcategories within the economic category :

– In the first year post-transition (YSL=1), Economic PAs with previous work experience in Canada had an earnings advantage of $18,000 (69%) over those who did not transition (no previous TR status). For the different immigrant categories the comparable earnings advantage at entry was: SW PA ($21,500, 83%) CEC PA (no non-transition comparison) PN PA ($25,000, 93%) LCP PA (no non-transition comparison)

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

SW PA PN PA CEC PA LCP PA ECO PA

YSL = 1 YSL = 3 YSL = 5

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

SW PA PN PA CEC PA LCP PA ECO PA

YSL = 1 YSL = 3 YSL = 5

11

Employment Earnings of Permanent Residents by Intended Skill Level– transitions (with WP) and non-transitions (no previous TR status)

Average Employment Earnings of Select Economic Categories (PAs) by Years Since Landing, tax year 2011 High-skilled – Transitioned with WP Low-skilled – Transitioned with WP

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

SW PA PN PA CEC PA LCP PA ECO PA

YSL = 1 YSL = 3 YSL = 5

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

SW PA PN PA CEC PA LCP PA ECO PA

YSL = 1 YSL = 3 YSL = 5

High-skilled – Non-transition (No previous TR Status) Low-skilled – Non-transition (No previous TR status)

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

SW PA PN PA CEC PA LCP PA ECO PA

YSL = 1 YSL = 3 YSL = 5

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

SW PA PN PA CEC PA LCP PA ECO PA

YSL = 1 YSL = 3 YSL = 5

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• Overall, some immigrants who transition from TRs have better economic outcomes than those without prior temporary residency in Canada.

• For those who do realize better economic outcomes, higher incidence of employment earnings and higher average employment earnings are observed immediately post-transition.

• Key characteristics of TRs affecting their post-transition outcomes:– Canadian work experience matters

• Those who transition to PRs having had a work permit as TRs have the strongest outcomes, while those who transition without having had a work permit have weaker outcomes than PRs with no previous TR status.

– Immigrant category matters• Those who transition into economic categories as principal applicants (PAs), including SW PAs,

PN PAs, and CEC PAs, outperform those who transition into other immigrant categories. • There are differences in outcomes observed for the PAs in different economic categories (SW,

PN, LCP, CEC) which may be reflecting differences is human capital

– Skill-level matters (based on intended occupation)• High-skilled TRs with previous work experience who transition as PAs into economic categories

(specifically, SW PA and PN PA) outperform their low-skilled counterparts.

Overview: Economic Outcomes of Immigrants who transitioned from Temporary Residents (TRs)

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• Transitions have increased steadily since the early 2000s.• Transitions account for increasing shares of permanent residence PR

admissions--especially among economic immigrant p.a. admissions.• Certain characteristics (Canadian work experience, immigration

category, skill level) affect TRs’ post-transition outcomes in the initial years (i.e. the first five years following landing).

• Recent evidence shows that while official language proficiency, Canadian work experience and arranged employment are determinants of economic success in early years after landing, human capital factors like age (youth) and education are more effective determinants of economic success in the long run.

• Further ongoing research is needed to monitor the effectiveness of key factors in predicting both economic (and social) integration outcomes of first and second generation immigrants.

Conclusions

14

Annex

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Canadian Experience Class (CEC)• Twelve months of skilled work experience in Canada in the three years before application for PR.• National Occupational Classification (NOC) skill types 0, A or B.• Minimum English and/or French requirements commensurate with the occupation in which skilled work experience

was gained in Canada. Québec Experience Program (PEQ)• Plan to live in Québec.• Québec graduates who have obtained an eligible Québec diploma and have a knowledge of spoken French.• Temporary foreign workers who are employed at time of application, have held a skilled job in Québec for at least 12 of

the last 24 months and have a knowledge of spoken French.Federal Skilled Worker (FSW)• PhD candidate eligibility stream.• International student enrolled in a PhD program in Canada, or graduate of a PhD program in Canada.• 1,000 applications for processing each year.Provincial Nominee Programs (PNP)• Most provinces and territories can nominate people to immigrate to Canada.• Requirements vary somewhat from program to program. Live-In Caregiver Program (LCP)• Individuals who are qualified to provide care for children, elderly persons or persons with disabilities in private homes

without supervision.• Participants can apply for PR after having been working in Canada under the LCP for at least 24 months, or a total of

3,900 hours within four years of arriving in Canada.

Programs with built-in pathways to permanence

16

• Transitions have increased steadily since the early 2000s – from 42,000 (2002) to 79,200 (2012).

• Since 2008, economic immigrants (p.a. and s.d.) accounted for more than half of all transitions.

Transitions from temporary to permanent residenceCanada, 1995 to 2012

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Number of transitions by immigration category

Family class Economic immigrants - p.a.

Economic immigrants - s.d. Refugees

Other immigrants Total Eco. % of all transitions (right axis)

Year

Thou

sand

s

Source: CIC, RDM, Transitions FF 2012 extract; and RDM, Permanent residents, December 2012 extract.

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Transitions into the Economic Class by Program, Canada, 2005-2012

• With their Provincial Nominee Programs, provinces are increasingly active in bringing in new PR through transitions.

• In 2012, almost 2 in five transitions (37%) as principal applicants into the Economic class is accounted for by provincial nominees. In 2005, this proportion was only 9%.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

-6%

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

30%

36%

42%Principal Applicants

Skilled Workers Provincial Nominees (PN)Canadian Experience Live-in Caregivers% of Eco. (p.a.) transitions - PN

Year

Thou

sand

s

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

0%

7%

14%

21%

28%

35%

42%

49%Spouses and Dependants

Skilled Workers Provincial Nominees (PN)Canadian Experience Business% of Eco. (s.d.) transitions - PN

Year

Thou

sand

s

Source: CIC, RDM, Transitions FF 2012 extract; and RDM, Permanent residents, December 2012 extract.

Notes: (1) Tansitions into Business p.a. has been less than 250 per year and is therefore too small to appear on this chart. (2) Tansitions into LCP s.d. has been less than 150 per year and is therefore too small to appear on this chart.

18

• TFW / PN p.a. is the most frequent type among all transitions into the economic immigration category (10,400 or 24%).

• Five types account for 75% of all transitions into the economic immigration category.

• Most transitions into the economic immigration category have been TFWs (74%).

Transitions into economic immigrationCanada, 2012

TFW / PN (p.a.)TFW / SW (p.a.)

TFW / Total Eco. (s.d.)TFW / CEC (p.a.)

Other TR / Total Eco. (s.d.)FS / Total Eco. (s.d.)

TFW / LCP (p.a.)FS / SW (p.a.)

Other TR / SW (p.a.)FS / CEC (p.a.)

FS / PN (p.a.)Other TR / CEC (p.a.)

Hum. / Total Eco (s.d.)Other TR / PN (p.a.)

Other patterns

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Major types of transition into the economic immigration category Canada, 2012

number

TFW / PN (p.a.) 24%

TFW / SW (p.a.) 15%

TFW / Total Eco. (s.d.) 14%TFW / CEC (p.a.) 12%

Other TR / Total Eco. (s.d.) 10%

All other patterns 25%

Top-five types of transition as a share of all transitions into the eco -nomic immigration category, Canada, 2012

Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada, RDM, Transitions FF 2012 extract; and RDM, Permanent residents, De-cember 2012 extract.

19

Permanent Residents who transitioned from TR (with WP) in the Longitudinal Immigrant Database (IMDB)

• In 2010, half of TRs with a WP who transitioned to PR did so as Economic PAs (as captured in the IMDB population, i.e., the immigrant tax filing population)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Family Class 5,180 5,850 5,720 6,525 6,305 5,440 Economic PA 7,175 10,470 12,415 18,015 21,320 23,465 Economic SD 1,610 2,740 3,365 4,535 5,295 5,465 Refugees 14,250 11,810 8,920 5,365 5,705 7,260 Other 3,360 5,160 5,710 4,980 5,480 5,035 Total 31,585 36,025 36,140 39,420 44,105 46,670

Count

Economic PAs by CategoryLanding Year 2010, Tax Year 2011

Permanent Residents who transitioned from TR (with WP)Landing Year 2005-2010, in Tax Year 2011

Source: IMDB, 2011

20

• In contrast, half of the TRs without a WP who transitioned to PR did so as Family Class (in 2011) (as captured in the IMDB population, i.e., the immigrant tax filing population)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Family Class 6,015 5,865 6,665 7,025 6,595 5,700 Economic PA 2,415 3,255 2,795 2,480 1,850 1,885 Economic SD 3,055 3,805 3,395 3,905 3,195 2,775 Refugees 1,875 1,225 705 380 320 280 Other 1,205 1,595 1,860 1,940 1,675 1,110 Total 14,565 15,740 15,425 15,740 13,640 11,750

Landing Year

Permanent Residents who transitioned from TR (without WP) in the Longitudinal Immigrant Database (IMDB)Permanent Residents who transitioned from TR (without WP)Landing Year 2005-2010, in Tax Year 2011

Economic PAs by CategoryLanding Year 2010, Tax Year 2011

Source: IMDB, 2011