passivhaus conference keynote presentation – nov 2007

Intep - Integrated Planning LLC

2nd Annual North American Passivhaus Conference

Urbana 2. to 5. November 2007

Slide 1Introduction

Incrementalism is Deatha personal opinion to energy and buildings

Stephan Tanner, Intep – Integrated Planning LLC, USA




Slide 2

Energy Matters!




Slide 3

Energy Matters!

Transportation

Industry

Buildings




Slide 4

Global Warmingadditional information: www.ipcc.com

1990

16011856

1940

Rhone Glacier




Slide 5

(Pet

it et

al.

1999

)

Today CO2 concentration is already higher than ever in the last 400’000 years

Atmospherical CO2 concentration (ppm)

Years before today

400’000 300’000 200’000 100’000 today

200

240

280

320

360

400

2100: Scenarios up to 1100 ppm

2000: Today, 380 ppm

1800: pre-industrial, 280 ppm

Global Warming

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - www.IPCC.ch




Slide 6

Global Warming Goal:

Stabilization at 550ppm= 1 Ton of CO2 - max. 500 Watt of fossil fuel annually per person

Source: Watson




Slide 7

Global warming - Economic Impact:

"The Biggest Market Failure the World Has Ever Seen”Sir Nicholas Stern, former Chief Economist of the World Bank,

February 2007:

Nicolas Stern Report:> The cost of reducing emissions could be limited to

around 1% of global GDP; people could be charged more

> Unabated climate change could cost the world at least 5% of GDP each year; if more dramatic predictions come to pass, the cost could be more than 20% of GDP.

Source: The McKinsey Quarterly 2007 - 1




Slide 8

Global Warming USA:

Current annual CO2 emission per person:

20 Ton of CO2

Global Warming Goal by 2050:

1 Ton of CO2




Slide 9

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Bangladesh Africa India China Brazil World Switzerland Western Europe

USA

Watts per capita

Energy Vision:

‘2000 Watt Society’•1500 Watt renewable energy•500 Watt fossil energySource: ETH Novatlantis: www.novatlantis.ch




Slide 10

Choices:

Source: US Energy Information Administration

SupplyReplace 85% fossil

DemandImprove Efficiency by 85%

Transportation

Industry

Buildings




Slide 11

Energy demand related to Buildings: 38% to 48% Source: US Energy Information Administration




Slide 12

Source: Intep GmbH

Building Life-Cycle: 50 to 100 years




Slide 13

Incrementalism is Death !We build today for 2050 and beyond.




Slide 14

Building Energy BenchmarksExample State of Minnesota

Today 100%MN Energy Code315 kWh/m2a

-60%LEED Platinum190 kWh/m2a

-85%Passivhaus Standard45 kWh/m2a




Slide 15

We can do it today !Over 6000 Passivhaus Buildings have been build today




Slide 16

Let’s make the step together!I look forward to have a great dialog about ideas, experiences and challenges at this conference.

THANK YOU!

passivhaus conference keynote presentation – nov 2007

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