keynote presentation at georg geothermal workshop, nov. 24, 2016
TRANSCRIPT
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY AND ITS ROLE IN THE FUTURE ENERGY MIXINTERNATIONAL GEOTHERMAL ASSOCIATION
2016 GEORG GEOTHERMAL WORKSHOP
REYKJAVIK/ ICELAND– 24 NOVEMBER 2016
GEOTHERMAL ENERGYINTERNATIONAL GEOTHERMAL ASSOCIATION
GEOTHERMAL ENERGYINTERNATIONAL GEOTHERMAL ASSOCIATION
• Scientific, educational and cultural organization with nearly 5,000 members in over 65 countries. • Non-political, non-profit, non-governmental organization with
consultative status to the UN and special observer status to the Green Climate Fund. • Objectives:
- Encouraging research, the development and utilization of geothermal resources worldwide through the publication of scientific and technical information among the geothermal specialists, the business community, governmental representatives, UN organisations, civil society and the general public. - Encourage, facilitate and, promote the coordination of activities related to
worldwide research, development and application of geothermal resources.
• Founded in 1988, IGA Secretariat is located in Bochum, Germany at the International Geothermal Centre of the Bochum University of Applied Sciences.
GEOTHERMAL ENERGYINTERNATIONAL GEOTHERMAL ASSOCIATION
• Mission & vision• Activities & visibility• Representation• Operation & funding• Path forward
TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIESINSTALLED CAPACITY - MWE (NOV 2016)
835
537
665
676
775
926
944
980
1,375
1,868
3,567
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
Other
Japan
Iceland
Kenya
Turkey
Mexico
Italy
New Zealand
Indonesia
Philippines
United States
Source: TGE Research (2016), GEA (2016), IGA (2015), Enerji Atlasi (2016)
1 GW Geothermal Country Club
1,364
8
944
665
980
926
676
775
1,868
3,567
1,375
2,787
987
145
575
285
481
1,037
1022
1,651
1,272
4,013
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Other
Ethiopia
Italy
Iceland
New Zealand
Mexico
Kenya
Turkey
Philippines
United States
Indonesia
Installed
Projects & permitted
6Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research (2016), GEA (2016), IGA (2015)
TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIESINSTALLED CAPACITY & PROJECTS - MWE (NOV 2016)
1 GW Geothermal Country Club
GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL POTENTIALPOWER GENERATION POTENTIAL
7
Sources: ThinkGeoEnergy, Geothermal Energy Association, IGA, ChevronNote: Installed Capacity of 2016 [2015], resource estimates combined (1999-2012) – IGA estimates a conservative total potential of 70,000 MW and with technology
improvements (extended use of low heat and EGS resources) at around 140,000 MW in power generation capacity.
Current installed capacityProjects & inferred resources
High temperature regions
Resource estimates
Installed Resources
North America
4,447
32,200
6,447
Installed Resources
Cent. America & Caribbean
522
27,400
618
Installed Resources
Europe
1,6423,400
1,271
Installed Resources
Africa
676
11,600
2,249
Installed Resources
South America
1
30,800
730
Installed Resources
Asia
4,568
70,884
7,868
Installed Resources
Aus., NZ & Pacific
1,010
7,700
666
Installed ResourcesMiddle East
7752,5501,022
TURKEY GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT INSTALLED POWER GENERATION CAPACITY 1984-2016
15 15 23 23 3077 94 114 162 311 405
624 775
66
419
580
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
Source: Enerji Atlasi (2016)
1 GW Geothermal Country Club
but …
Source: Tesla Motors – Tweet of 22 November 2016
CLIMATE INVESTMENT POTENTIAL – AN IFC ANALYSISINVESTMENT POTENTIAL BY SECTOR ($ BILLION)
Source: IFC Analysis, “Climate Investment Potential in Emerging Markets” (2016)
Based on: IFC “Climate investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets” (2016)
Solar939
Wind588
Biomass119
Geothermal63
Small Hydro56
Investment Potential by Sector ($ billion)
TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIESINSTALLED CAPACITY - MWE (NOV 2016)
Let’s not despair though ...
ESTIMATED LEVELIZED COST OF ELECTRICITY GENERATIONU.S. WEIGHTED AVERAGE LCOE (2015 $/ MWH)
63.7
58.2
50.9
39.5
99.7
93.6
105.4
55.8
56.4
0 20 40 60 80 100
Hydroelectric
Solar PV
Wind - Onshore
Geothermal
Advanced Nuclear
Natural gas - adv. comb. turb.
Natural Gas - conv. comb. turbine
Natural Gas - adv. comb. cycle
Natural Gas - conv. comb. cycle
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration | AEO2016 Levelized Costs (August 2016)
For plants entering service in 2022
Dispatchable Technologies
Non-Dispatchable Technologies
1,364
8
944
665
980
926
676
775
1,868
3,567
1,375
2,787
987
145
575
285
481
1,037
1022
1,651
1,272
4,013
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Other
Ethiopia
Italy
Iceland
New Zealand
Mexico
Kenya
Turkey
Philippines
United States
Indonesia
Installed
Projects & permitted
15Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research (2016), GEA (2016), IGA (2015)
TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIESINSTALLED CAPACITY & PROJECTS - MWE (NOV 2016)
GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND 2035
China4,145
Global primary energy demand 2035 (mtoe) – source: IEA (2015)
1,559
967Southeast Asia
2,192U.S.
India
1,203
Africa
1,704
1,340
1,070
Europe
Middle East
Eurasia
247
465
Mexico
Brazil
429Japan
ENERGY DEMAND EUROPEAN UNION2013 FINAL DEMAND BY SECTOR IN EUR28: 14,000 TWH
Source: IHS Energy Multi-client Study Beyond the Flame: The Transformation of Europe’s Heat Sector (2016)
Heating & Cooling -Residential
20%
Heating & Cooling -Commercial
9%
Heating & Cooling -Industry
15%
Feedstock6%
Commercial - Other4%
Industry - Other8%
Residential - Other5%
Transport33%
2013 Final Demand by Sector in EUR28 (%)
HEATING DEMAND 44%
GEOTHERMAL ENERGYDIRECT USE 2015 (UTILISATION IN TJ/ YEAR)
Source: Lund, J. Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2015 – Worldwide Review (IGA, WGC 2015)
Heat pumps55.30%
Space Heating15.01%
Greenhouse Heating4.54%
Aquaculture2.03%
Agricultural drying0.35%
Industrial uses1.78%
Bathing & Swimming, 20.31%
Cooling/ snow melting
0.44%
Others0.25%
Direct use utilization with heat pumps 2015 (TJ/ yr)
Bathing & swimming
44.74%
Space heating36.98%
Greenhouse heating8.96%
Aquaculture3.40%
Industrial use2.99%
Cooling/ snow melting1.76%
Agriculture drying0.79%
Others0.39%
Direct use utilization without heat pumps 2015 (TJ/ yr)
GEOTHERMAL ENERGYDIRECT USE CAPACITY – MW THERMAL
1,845 5,27515,384
33,12449,898
68,000
6,8109,870
12,885
15,359
20,431
27,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 (e)
Heat pumps
CLIMATE INVESTMENT POTENTIAL – AN IFC ANALYSISINVESTMENT POTENTIAL BY SECTOR ($ BILLION)
939
588
119 63 560
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Solar Wind Biomass Geothermal Small Hydro
$ bn
Source: IFC Analysis, “Climate Investment Potential in Emerging Markets” (2016)
Based on: IFC “Climate investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets” (2016)
CLIMATE INVESTMENT POTENTIAL – AN IFC ANALYSISINVESTMENT POTENTIAL GEOTHERMAL BY REGION ($ BILLION)
27
16
14
60 0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia Pacific
Latin America & Caribbean
Eastern & Central Asia
South Asia Middle East & North Africa
Source: IFC Analysis, “Climate Investment Potential in Emerging Markets” (2016)
Based on: IFC “Climate investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets” (2016)
GEOTHERMAL ENERGYDEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
Technical• Resource•Drilling• Resource risks• Equipment
GEOTHERMAL ENERGYDEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
Business, Finance …• Financial structures• Risk mitigation (insurance)•Development time•Off-taker• Structure of projects
INTERNATIONALGEOTHERMAL
ASSOCIATION (IGA)
WWW.GEOTHERMAL-ENERGY.ORG
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