participatory natural hazard and climate change risk

Participatory Natural Hazard and Climate Change Risk Mapping Study -

Inhambane and Maxixe, Mozambique Completion report

BRGM/RC-59898-FRMay, 2011

Participatory Natural Hazard and Climate Change Risk Mapping Study - Inhambane

and Maxixe, Mozambique Completion Report

BRGM/RC-59898-FRMay, 2011

C. Oliveros, J.-F. Desprats, P. Thierry

Checked by:

Name: J.P. Rançon

Date: 04/05/2011

Signature:

Approved by:

Name: E. Foerster

Date : 04/05/2011

Signature:

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IM 003 ANG – April 05

Natural Hazard, Climate Change, Risk Mapping - Inhambane and Maxixe

4 BRGM/RC-59898-FR – “Completion report”

Keywords: Adaptation Measures, Climate Change, Coastal Cities, Inhambane, Maxixe, Mozambique, Natural Hazards, Participatory Urban Requalification, Risk Mapping. , In bibliography, this report should be cited as follows: C. Oliveros, J.-F. Desprats, P. Thierry, (2011) - Participatory Natural Hazard and Climate Change Risk Mapping Study - Inhambane and Maxixe, Mozambique - Completion Report, Report BRGM RC-59898-FR, 17 pp. © BRGM, 2011. No part of this document may be reproduced without the prior permission of BRGM.


BRGM/RC-59898-FR – “Completion report” 5

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. PROJECT OBJECTIVES .............................................................................. 7

1.1. THE STUDY OBJECTIVES ................................................................................ 7

1.2. ACHIEVEMENT OF STUDY OBJECTIVES ........................................................ 8

2. OUTCOMES ................................................................................................ 13

3. STUDY IMPLEMENTATION ........................................................................ 15

3.1. CHARACTERISTICS OF PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION ........................ 15

3.2. ROLE OF OTHER PARTNERS ........................................................................ 15

4. LESSONS LEARNED .................................................................................. 15



1. PROJECT OBJECTIVES

1.1. THE STUDY OBJECTIVES

The commissioned study has three strategic objectives:

• To develop a general, modular and reproducible methodology for proposing

adaptation measures and participatory urban options for increasing global resilience of highly vulnerable areas in cities facing present and future climate variability, in full consultation with exposed populations. This includes the assessment of the present day natural hazards (flooding, soils and coastal erosion) and induced sea level rise effects in 2030, 2060 and 2100;

• To make city actors sensitive to the impact of coastal disasters and climate change in order to prepare them to react better when faced with emergency situations or to deal more efficiently with subjects such as land-use planning and construction problems;

• To involve the population of the townships at an early stage in the selection and evaluation of potential options for increasing global resilience facing present and future climate variability.

These strategic objectives are completed with technical objectives:

• Pay attention to specific assets such as townships and coastal roads that are

highly vulnerable; • Collect and/or assess data with the relevant and adequate resolution, in order

for the methodology to be easily implemented and successfully replicated in other cities in Mozambique;

• Consolidate all pertinent data within a GIS database that is easily workable by authorities in charge of risk assessment and mitigation plan implementation.

In order to achieve the aforementioned objectives, the study was designed to include six components:

1. Mapping of urban stakes; 2. Natural hazards and climate change vulnerability mapping & Identification of

areas at risk; 3. Adaptation measures; 4. Participatory urban options for increasing global resilience; 5. Estimation of costs; and 6. Training and knowledge transfer.

The developed methodology will be replicated to other urban areas in Mozambique.



1.2. ACHIEVEMENT OF STUDY OBJECTIVES

Component 1: Mapping of urban stakes

The objectives of this component are: - The design of a GIS Database appropriate to a systemic analysis of urban

territories; - The collection of input data on the physical environment, the land use

characteristics and the costs to provide input data for the risk analysis, the urban requalification plan and the estimation of costs;

- Stakeholder analysis with the aim of specifying training and knowledge transfer needs, as well as identifying individuals and organisations who can provide required information and can participate in collection of information and will lay the basis for an appropriate participatory process.

The first and the third objectives of this component have been successfully achieved. A GIS database structure has been developed. It is implemented and operational at the INGC office in Maputo. The stakeholder analysis has been performed through enquiries and the results submitted to local authorities during restitution workshops.

To achieve the second set of objectives, the Consultant has faced an important difficulty due to the almost complete lack of existing information at appropriate scale. Indeed, some databases and maps were identified and acquired but the best precision level were at 1:50,000 scale or of lower resolution (useless for urban mapping purposes). Moreover, it must be emphasized that most of these data (either analogic or digital) where ancient regarding the current fast evolution of such urban zones. Urban data used by “municipios” are “paper” documents often imprecise, not updated and of very difficult use. Absolutely no data corresponding to the geomorphological environment was found available.

To overcome this crucial difficulty, the Consultant has purchased very high resolution (VHR) satellite images (GEOEYE and ALOS). It has also calculated a precise Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with a 5m grid from ALOS images. It must be emphasized that such acquisitions which have revealed to be essential for the success of the study, were not initially planned in the budget of the project. These data were thus available 3.5 months after the launch of the project. VRH imagery and DEM allowed to initiate a urban topographic digital base and to perform the morphological analysis needed for hazard mapping. The urban topographic base was complemented by both digitalization of main streets and roads from satellite images and by localization through a GPS survey of the main official buildings in both cities. In addition, the Consultant has improved (from satellite images analysis and field observations) the existing land use and soil maps.

Component 2: Natural hazards and Climate change vulnerability mapping & Identification of areas at risk

The objectives of this task were the following: - Identification, inventory and digitalization of the main elements at risk for each

type of hazard and time period (present, 2030, 2060 and 2100); - Assessment of present and possible future natural hazards in the cities of

Inhambane and Maxixe. This has included floods, coastal erosion, continental erosion and droughts;

- Analysis of the present and future risks for the informal settlements and the coastal roads particularly.



Identification of main elements at risk: five types of exposure have been identified from field observations. This typology concerns buildings/housings and roads (B1-Wooden Huts, B2-Masonry Houses, B3-Concrete Houses, R1-Unpaved Roads, R2-Asphalted roads). Due to the lack of existing urban data and maps that could have been used, it was not possible to make a precise mapping of the exposures. Therefore, to overcome this difficulty, it has been decided to prepare threat matrix and to map impacts of hazards for the different types of elements at risk.

Hazard mapping: It was established during the first field campaign (May 17th – 22nd, 2010) that the main hazards threatening the studied areas were the consequence of an uncontrolled urban growth and serious lack of assessment in urban runoff water (drainage). High erodibility of soils contributes to extreme situations of rills and gully development. Five phenomena have been considered for hazard mapping, namely floods in talwegs, floods in streets, low kinetic floods in depression, coastal floods/marine submersion and coastal cliff erosion.

It must be emphasized that this assumption, which differs quite significantly from the initial work plan (as decribed in the Terms of Reference), corresponds to the analysis of the real situation in Inhambane and Maxixe as discovered during the first field work (May 2010). These conclusions were confirmed in the meantime by information provided by the local stakeholders. It can be noticed that in Maxixe, the main concerns are associated with the control of flooding and cliff erosion by street runoffs, whereas in Inhambane, the main concerns are associated with coastal and depression flooding.

Each of the studied hazards has been mapped separately and recorded in a specific GIS layer. All layers have the same structure. Each polygon is informed through:

• One Hazard level attribute with 4 possible values (L-Low, M-Moderate, H-High, VH- Very High);

• Five attributes corresponding to the five categories of elements at risk. The damage values (L-Low, M-Moderate, H-High) are defined from the risk matrix (type of exposure / level of hazard).

Soil erosion and runoff: as defined in the stated objectives of the study, the aim was to model soil erosion in the area under study. Nevertheless, erosion that occurs in Inhambane pilot sites is highly localized and limited to short, gentle slopes in non-asphalted tracks and streets. Inhambane smooth landscape results only in localized water runoff in the city, with no observed erosion. Therefore a complete spatial analysis of soil erosion has only been performed on the Maxixe area, restricted to the coastal watersheds of the city.

Risk mapping: risk maps present the possibilities of damages for the different types of elements at risk. Therefore, a specific map has been prepared for each exposure category and recorded in a separate cover. All covers have the same structure. Each polygon is informed through:

• A synthetic risk attribute (text) gathering all information related to the different hazards. This attribute looks like “CF1-DR0-CC2-TF2-SF3”. It corresponds to CF-Coastal Flooding related risk at level 1 (Low), DR-Depression flooding related risk at level 0 (null), CC-Coastal Cliff erosion risk and TF-Talweg Floods related risk at level 2 (Moderate) and SF-Street floods related risk at level 3 (High);

• The local maximum risk level whatever the hazard; • Five attributes (one for each hazard) presenting the corresponding risk level

expressed through text (L, M, H).



• Five attributes (one for each hazard) presenting the corresponding risk level expressed through integer (0-null, 1-Low, 2- Moderate, 3-High).

Component 3: Adaptation measures

As stated before, the dominant natural hazards/risks in the zone under study are as follows:

in Maxixe: the dominant natural risk is associated with storm water runoff, erosion of slopes and small areas that are affected by coastal flooding;

in Inhambane: the dominant risk is associated with coastal flooding, erosion of the shoreline (cliffs) and many sectors where storm water drainage fails.

The effects caused by storm water drainage are direct flooding of residences and roads, as well as erosion and degradation of the roadway and the gullies.

No significant coastal flooding events were discovered in the bibliography or during visits on site. However, the analysis of the shoreline and the elevation of the surrounding natural zone show that the community of Inhambane is exposed to flooding by an extreme sea water level with a 100-year return period.

Proposed adaptation measures have been therefore designed to match these specific issues.

The strategic infilling of the stormwater depressions and the construction of coastal defense structures does not seem suitable:

the low-lying coastal zones are also exposed to coastal flooding; coastal protection structures are particularly expensive and should be justified

by the protection of areas of strategic assets, in the absence of any other alternative development.

Regarding the street control of floods, the solution must be considered first from the upstream part of the watershed (infiltration and retention works) and then on the downstream part, with the optimization of culverts and other measures.

Component 4: Participatory Urban Options for increasing Global Resilience

Any measures taken in order to reduce the impact of natural disasters must always take into consideration the characteristics of the concerned group of people.

Most of the people living in exposed areas and who will be participating in the process which aims at reducing their vulnerability to extreme weather events, have insufficient resources to improve their conditions of life;

They survive from informal trade and other alternative activities; Their financial difficulties are such that this particular social stratum prefers to

occupy apparently free areas, even when they are informed of flooding hazard; The reason that explains this attitude is their need to live in areas close to the

economic and social services offered by urban centers.

Measures to mitigate the impacts of hazards may take the form of structural and non-structural measures.

Structural measures have been discussed previously; Non-structural measures do not aim at preventing floods, but rather at reducing

their impact on assets in the short and long terms including: A formal warning system and programs for monitoring soil use in areas

prone to flooding; Specific regulations for building in these areas and safety plans;



Preparation and organization into networks of the community for initial assistance when natural disasters affect an area;

Installation of mobile latrines specifically in the neighborhoods of Mazambanine, Liberdade 3 (Quarters 1 and 2) and Chalambe 2.

Formation and information of population for strengthening communities so as to establish their own resistance and resilience capacities within the Mozambican context, where the Government’s intervention capacity is still insufficient.

Component 5: Estimation of costs The objective of this task is to make a proposal with costs components that are as detailed as possible and which will allow INGC to secure the funds for investment for the Adaptation Plan.

The estimation of costs includes 5 categories: special infrastructures component, safeguard planning and implementation, monitoring and evaluation, contingency, and implementation management costs.

For the City of Maxixe the proposed adaptation measures that are of high priority have an estimated cost of 3,096,900 USD, whilst the proposed measures for Inhambane City with high priorities have estimated costs of 101,000 USD.

Component 6: Training and knowledge transfer

Intensive field survey was done during the first month of the project, during which the INGC staff (from Inhambane and Maputo) was fully involved: mapping, GPS, data collection from local administrations and Municipalities.

Two seminars were organized during the project: 1. Restitution workshops in Inhambane (01/04/2011), Maxixe (02/04/2011) and

Maputo (05/04/2011).

These meetings aimed at presenting the project results to stakeholders, and at collecting their questions and comments. 21 people were present in Inhambane, 28 in Maxixe and 45 in Maputo.

2. Final training workshop in Maputo aimed at presenting the methodology to a

group of 13 experts from INGC (April 26th to 28th, 2011)



2. OUTCOMES

The expected outcomes implemented were :

1. Mapping

2. Natural hazards and Climate change vulnerability mapping & Identification of areas at risk

3. Adaptation measures

4. Participatory Urban Options for increasing Global Resilience

5. Estimation of cost

6. Training and knowledge transfer

Two differents outputs were delivered :

1. Reports

2. Workshops (Project Presentation in Inhambane / Maxixe / Maputo and Methodological Presentation in Maputo)

Inception Report

C. Oliveros Inception Report:Natural hazard and climate change risk mapping Participatory urban requalification for Inhambane and Maxixe,Mozambique 10 pages 8 appendices

Interim Report 1 C. Oliveros, J.F. Desprats, M. Lima, A. Mazembe, E. Neves, C. Rosario, M. Souto, P. Stollsteiner, S. Roque, P. Thierry, Th. Winter (2010) Participatory Natural Hazard and Climate Change Risk Mapping Study - Inhambane and Maxixe, Mozambique - Intermediary Report #1, Report BRGM RC-59130-FR 207 p.

Interim Report 2 Th. Winter, M. Lima, A. Mazembe, T. Adeline, C. Oliveros, P. Thierry, M. Yates-Michelin (2010) Participatory Natural Hazard and Climate Change Risk Mapping Study - Inhambane and Maxixe, Mozambique – Intermediary Report #2 - 94 p.

Final Report C. Oliveros, T. Adeline, J.F. Desprats, M. Lima, A. Mazembe, E. Neves, C. Rosario, M. Souto, P. Stollsteiner, S. Roque, P. Thierry, Th. Winter, M. Yates-Michelin (2011) Participatory Natural Hazard and Climate Change Risk Mapping Study - Inhambane and Maxixe, Mozambique - Executive Report , Report BRGM RC-59843-FR 164 p. C. Oliveros, T. Adeline, R. Cochery, J.F. Desprats, M. Lima, A. Mazembe, E. Neves, C. Rosario, M. Souto, P. Stollsteiner, S. Roque, P. Thierry, Th. Winter, M. Yates-Michelin (2011) - Estudo de Mapeamento Participativo de Risco de Calamidades Naturais e Mudança Climática - Inhambane e Maxixe, Moçambique – Relatório Final , Relatório BRGM RC-59843-FR 154 p.



Methodological Report

C. Oliveros, J.F. Desprats, S. Gourdier, S. Lecacheux, M. Lima, A. Mazembe, E. Neves, C. Rosario, M. Souto, P. Thierry, Th. Winter (2011) - Participatory Natural Hazard and Climate Change Risk Mapping Study - Inhambane and Maxixe, Mozambique. Methodological manual, Report BRGM RC-59828- FR 136 p.

C. Oliveros, J.F. Desprats, S. Gourdier, S. Lecacheux, M. Lima, A. Mazembe, E. Neves, C. Rosário, M. Souto, P. Thierry, Th. Winter (2011) – Estudo Participativo de Mapeamento do Risco de Calamidades Naturais e Mudanças Climáticas - Inhambane e Maxixe, Moçambique. Manual metodológico, Relatório BRGM RC-59828-FR 131 pp.

Completion Report

C. Oliveros, J.-F. Desprats, P. Thierry, (2011) - Participatory Natural Hazard and Climate Change Risk Mapping Study- Inhambane, Maxixe, Mozambique - Completion Report, Report BRGM RC-59898-FR, 20 pp.

C. Oliveros, J.-F. Desprats, P. Thierry, (2011) - Estudo de Mapeamento Participativo de Risco de Calamidades Naturais e Mudança Climática - Inhambane e Maxixe, Moçambique – Relatório de Conclusão, Relatório BRGM RC-59898-FR, 20 pp.



3. STUDY IMPLEMENTATION

3.1. CHARACTERISTICS OF PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION

• The contractors' performance (BRGM/Austral Cowi/Sogreah) was technically satisfactory, in spite of the short delay in the realization of the contract.

• The INGC's performance is considered satisfactory. Regarding natural hazards assessment and prevention, this project was important and INGC allowed a good link between the Communities and the Consultant.

The Project was closely followed by the Bank representative, including frequent field visits.

3.2. ROLE OF OTHER PARTNERS

Local stakeholders have shown a strong involvement in participating to the thoughts regarding hazard and risk mitigation for their communities.

From the first works in the field, needed adaptation to the work program and methodology has been done. These proposed evolution of the works has been presented in the Inception Report and discussed/improved through exchanges with the World Bank representatives.

4. LESSONS LEARNED

The key lessons suggested by the study outcome mainly concern the importance of a preliminary overview of the local reality and its corresponding specific issues to ensure a rapid adaptation of the work program to match as much as possible the real problems; furthermore, it is important to stick as much as possible to the local reality when designing solutions and recommendations. Both social and financial possibilities must be taken into account.



Appendix 1: ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS:

INGC: Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidades (National Institute for Disaster Management).

BRGM: Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières.

MOPH: Ministério de Obras Públicas e Habitação (Ministry of Public Works and Housing).

ANE: Administração Nacional de Estradas (National Roads Authority).

INAM: Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (National Institute for Meteorology).

INAS Instituto Nacional de Acção Social (National Institute for Social Action)

FIPAG: Fundo de Investimento e Património de Abastecimento de Água (Water Supply Investment and Heritage Fund).

EDM: Electricidade de Moçambique (National Electricity Supplier).

MISA: Media Institute of Southern Africa.

NGO: Non-Governamental Organisation.

WFP: World Food Programme.



Appendix 2 : Minutes of Workshop meeting (April 26th to 28th) – (from INGC)

REPÚBLICA DE MOÇAMBIQUE

MINISTÉRIO DA ADMINISTRAÇÃO ESTATAL

INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE GESTÃO DE CALAMIDADES

DIRECÇÃO DE PREVENÇÃO E MITIGAÇÃO

Report

1. Introduction

Between the 26th and 28th of April, 2011, a team consisting of the Director of the INGC DPM, Regional Director South (INGC), technical INGC central, regional and technicians of the municipal councils of Inhambane and Maxixe attended a training on "Use of Methodologies Applied to Study Mapping Natural Hazards and Risks of Climate Change of the Cities of Inhambane and Maxixe, which took place in the National Operative Emergency Center (CNOE).

2. The seminar

The seminar began with the installation of ArcGIS in the participants' computers, and then by training in its use. Also involved in socio-economic components, where they discussed various aspects and the role of stakeholders and conducted a few exercises. Finally, it was discussed aspects linked to climate change and adaptation measures for sustainable local communities.

3. The Seminar outcome

This training was characterized by a strong participation of the trainees, who confirmed a great interest in the results and use of software (ArcGIS and others), and by the immediate application of these methodologies to other regions. However one can consider that the outcome was positive, given that the main objective was achieved.



4. Constraints

The major constraint observed during the seminar was the delay in the installation of ArcGIS for the training of participants, since this installation took over an hour to complete on each computer. On the other hand, all computers could not install this program, as it was a free version, which was limited in the number of installation licenses. Only four computers succeeded in installing ArcGIS, which led the participants to share three computers.

Another major bottleneck that occurred during training was the frequent absence of some temporary actors from INGC-Central, given that they had to meet the professional subjects.

5. Recommendations

Since this training was aimed at clarifying the methodology used to arrive at conclusions of the study, and because the main characteristic of these technical methods including the use of ArcGIS, which includes digital models and other models such as soil erosion, is to require a great expertise, it is strongly recommended that a training be provided for the technicians in order for them to be able to reproduce the same methodology for other locations with similar characteristics or vulnerable to the same kind of threats, as well as to be able to follow-up actions.

6. Participants

1. Ana Cristina João Manuel - Psychopedagogist N1 2. Cesar Tembe N1-Geographer 3. Chaquil Aboobacar - Math N1 4. Figueroa Araujo - Master on Disaster Management (Information Officer in Caia) 5. Manuel Mahunguana - Meteorologist-N1 6. Elidio Jamisse - Education Planner N1 7. Igor Honwana - GIS Specialist 8. Nelma Jerusa - Degree in international relations 9. David - Environmental Manager 10. Elias Barros - Geographer(information officer in Vilankulo) 11. Technician at Inhambane Provincial Delegation of ING 12. Technician at Municipality of Inhambane 13. Technician at Municipality of Maxixe

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