parallel session c: climate change...

ParallelSessionC:ClimateChangeImpacts

C1:Highimpactregionalphenomena

POSTERPRESENTATIONS

ParallelSessionC:ClimateChangeImpactsC1:HighImpactregionalphenomena

C1-P-01

SeasonalandinterannualvariationsoftheITCZintheIndianOcean

ParyaAdibi,InstituteofGeophysics,UniversityofTehran,Iran

ParyaAdibi,OmidAlizadeh-Choobari,InstituteofGeophysics,UniversityofTehran,Iran

The climate of tropical regions on themonthly and longer time scales is significantly affected bymigrationoftheintertropicalconvergencezone(ITCZ),whiletheITCZpositiondependsonthecross-equatorialatmosphericenergytransport(AET)andtheequatorialnetenergyinput(NEI0).UsingtheERA-Interimdatasetfortheperiod1980-2018,theITCZpositionintheIndianOceananditsmigrationontheseasonalandinterannualtimescalesareinvestigated.Inaddition,thecross-equatorialAETandtheNEI0intheIndianOceanareanalyzedtodeterminepositionoftheITCZbasedontheatmosphericenergybalance.ResultsindicatedthattheannualmeanpositionoftheITCZintheIndianOceanisintheSouthernHemisphere(approximatelyat5.5ºS),whileinsomeseasons,adoubleITCZforms.Itisalsofoundthatduringtheperiod1980-2018,theannualmeanpositionoftheITCZintheIndianOceanismigratedtowardtheequatorbyapproximately1º.ThelargestmeridionalmigrationoftheITCZintheIndianOceanoccurswiththeperiodof1year,showingseasonalmigrationoftheITCZassociatedwiththemonsooncirculation.OuranalysisindicatedthatpositionofthemaximumprecipitationintheIndianOceanisdifferentfromtheenergyfluxequator(EFE,wherethecolumn-integratedmeridionalenergy flux vanishes), such that the EFE is always located at north of the position of maximumprecipitation.Itisfoundthatvariationsofthecross-equatorialAETandtheONIarenotconsistentlycorrelated,whilevariationsoftheNEI0intheIndianOceanandtheONIarequiteconsistent.Variationsofthecross-equatorialAETdominateinterannualvariationsoftheITCZposition,whilevariationsoftheNEI0dominateseasonalvariationsoftheITCZpositionintheIndianOcean.

Keywords: ITCZ,cross-equatorialatmosphericenergytransport,equatorialnetenergy input,energyfluxequator,IndianOcean


C1-P-02

EmpiricalAssessmentofClimateImpactonthePopulationoftheOilpalmLeafminer

ThomasAneni,NigerianInstituteforOilpalmResearch,Nigeria

ThomasAneni,VictorAdaigbe,NigerianInstituteforOilpalmResearch,Nigeria

Theleafminer(Coelaenomenoderaelaeidis)isthemostseriousinsectpestoftheoilpalm.Itbreaksout in epidemic proportions periodically, resulting in severe leaf defoliation and consequently lowfresh fruit bunch (ffb) yield. This study analyses patterns in leafminer abundance, and elucidatesclimaticfactorsinfluencingleafminerabundance.Theleafminersamplingrecordsduring2009-2010inoilpalmfieldsandrecordsfromprevioussurveysfrom1976-1980wereutilized.Thestudyanalysestemperature,rainfallandrelativehumiditybetween1961and2010inthemainstationoftheNigerianInstitute for Oil Palm Research (NIFOR). Data on temperature, rainfall and relative humiditywereobtainedfromNIFORmeteorologicalunit.Decadalvariationinairtemperatureindicatedincreaseinairtemperaturebetween1961-1970and2001-2010whilevariationinrainfallandrelativehumidityindicatedadecrease.Itwasalsoobservedthattherewastemperatureincreaseacrossseasonswithhighest increase inthedryseason,andsuitable for leafminercontrol.Relationshipbetweenmeanweatherfactors(temperature,humidityandrainfall)andleafminerinsectstages(larvae,pupaeandadult)between2009and2010showedsignificantrelationship(P≤0.05).Thiscouldbeattributedtorelativelyhigherweathervaluesandhigherleafminerpopulation.Theneedforcontinuousmonitoringhasgreatpotentialforcontrolofinsectpestsinoilpalmgrowingareas.

Keywords:Climatevariability,Insectpopulation,Climateimpact


C1-P-03

CantheCORDEX-SEAhistoricalsimulationscapturetheobservedspatiotemporalcharacteristicsofthedroughtsignaloverthePhilippines?

RichardAntonio,ManilaObservatory,Philippines

RichardAntonio,GemmaTeresaNarisma,FranciaAvila,FayeAbigailCruz,ManilaObservatory,Philippines

Drought has been a recurrent hazard in the Philippines. Gaining an understanding of thespatiotemporal characteristics of drought in the Philippine setting is needed to frame appropriatemitigation measures. Meteorological thresholds leading to drought conditions differ on regionalscales. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to characterize drought through frequency,durationandseasonality.Thisstudyusesfivegriddedreanalysisobservationaldatasets:CHIRPS,CRU,JRA,PERSIANNandUDELtocomparewiththeresultsfromCORDEX-SEAhistoricalsimulations.TheCORDEX-SEAsimulationsweredownscaledusingtheRegCM4modelanddrivenbydifferentGCMS:CNRM,CSIRO,EC-EARTH,HADGEM2andMPI.

SPIvaluesarecomputedover3and6monthtimescalesrepresentingseasonalandsemiannualrainfallcontexts.ForbothSPI3(agricultural)andSPI6(hydrological)droughts,resultsshowthatdroughtsaremore frequent over the largest islands (Luzon and Mindanao) with a clear west-east difference.Generally,therearemoredroughtsinthewesternhalfofthePhilippines.Furthermore,resultsshowthat Luzon experiencesmore distributed number of droughts over all duration lengths (2, 3, 4, 5months or greater), compared toMindanao. Luzon experiencesmore frequent 3-month droughtswhileMindanaodroughtsareseentobesplitequally,lastingfrom2to3months,withgenerallynodroughts lasting 5months or longer. In terms of seasonality, SPI3 droughts startmost commonlybetweenDecember and February,while SPI6 starts between February andApril over all areas. Byassessing the performance of CORDEX-SEA historical simulations in replicating the drought signalexhibited by observation datasets, application of the same methodology on future downscaledprojectionscanbecontextualizedandassessedproperly.

Keywords:Drought,StandardPrecipitationIndex,climatevariability,CORDEX-SEA


C1-P-04

QuantificationoffutureclimaterisksandonsetofextremeweathereventstometropolitancitiesinAsia

AdnanArshad,DepartmentofMeteorology,ChinaAgriculturalUniversity,Pakistan

AdnanArshad,DepartmentofMeteorology,ChinaAgriculturalUniversity,Pakistan;AanehiMundra,JawaharlalNehruUniversity,NewDelhi,India,India;SagarikaBhatta,PowershiftOrganizationforClimateChange,Nepal,Nepal;NegarEkrami,CollegeofGeosciences’,UniversityofTehran,Tehran,Iran,Iran;MandroyPangaribuan,AdvanceSchoolonHeatStress,AcademiaScinica,Taipei,Taiwan,

Taiwan,China;MuhammadFarhan,NaresuanUniversity,Phitsanluk,Thailand,Thailand;NuraAbdulmuminiYelwa,DepartmentofGeologyUniversityofMalaya,Malaysia

More than 50% (∼3.5 billion) of the global and 49.6%Asianpopulation is living in cities becomingincreasinglyurbanized,andpopulationinAsiaisequivalentto59.66%ofthetotalworldpopulation.Currentgrowthsimulationsindicatedthattherelativemagnitudewillincreaseto58%by2030,andby2050nearly6.3billionoutofanestimatedglobalpopulationof9.1billionwillliveinurbanterritory.Citiesconsume75%oftheworld’senergyuseandproducemorethan76%ofallCO2.Warmingofjust1.5degreesCelsiuscouldbringonthemostsevereconsequencesofclimatechange.During2010to2018people’s livesweredisruptedbyheatwaves, floods,drought,erratic rainsandsea level rise.Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase thevulnerabilityofinfrastructureacrosstheAsia.Eachcityhasitsownparticularreactionunderthestressofextremeweatherevents,andweatherposesoneofthebiggestriskstohumanhealthandeconomy.Citieshavedirectlinkageswithclimatechange,andurbancentersaremajordriversofglobalwarmingbecause they concentrate transportation, industries, households and many of the emitters ofgreenhousegases.Already,athirdoftheurbanpopulationindevelopingcountriesinlivinginslum,thisusuallyimpliesalackofsafedrinkingwater,sanitation,andhighlyvulnerabletonaturaldisasters.InAsiamorethan18%ofurbanpopulationlivinginLowElevationCoastalZonethatislessthan10meters above sea level (Mumbai, Karachi & Jakarta). Marginalized urban residents such as labormigrants in, for instanceManila,ColomboandDhakaare forcedto live inhighlyexposed locationswhicharehighlysusceptibletoextremeweather.Usingregionalresearchandtoanalyzevulnerability,impacts,andadaptationpractices,thispaperestimatesimpactstohumanhealth,economy,coastalproperties,andurbaninfrastructureandinvestigatessensitivitytovaryinggreenhousegasemissionscenariosandclimatesensitivities.Thestudywillprovidebetterunderstandingtopolicymakerstorethinkwhatandwhereacentralbusinessdistrictisinthe21stcenturytoreduceourGHGemissionsby45%before2030andreachnetzeroemissionsby2075.

Keywords:ClimateWarming,ExtremeWeather,FutureRisks,Urbanization


C1-P-05

ResponseofregionalmonsoonsatvariouslevelsofradiativeforcinginRegCM4-CORDEXsimulations

MoetasimAshfaq,OakRidgeNationalLaboratory,UnitedStates

MoetasimAshfaq,OakRidgeNationalLaboratory,UnitedStates;TerezaCavazos,CenterforScientificResearchandHigherEducationofEnsenada,BajaCalifornia,Mexico;MichelleReboita,

InstituteofNaturalResources(IRN),Brazil,-;LincolnAlves,CenterforEarthSystemScience,Brazil,-;ChenWeilin,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,China,-;Christiana

Olusegun,KarlsruheInstituteofTechnology,-;MojisolaAdeniyi,UniversityofIbadan,Nigeria,-;ShahidAwan,AcademiaSinica,Taiwan,-;QudsiaZafar,GlobalChangeImpactStudiesCentre,Pakistan,-;ErikaCoppola,InternationalCentreforTheoreticalPhysics,Italy,-;FilippoGiorgi,

InternationalCentreforTheoreticalPhysics,Italy

UsinganensembleofRegCM4simulationsovervariousmonsoondomains,includingNorthAmerica,SouthAmerica,WesternAfrica, SouthAsia, East Asia andAustralia,we investigate changes in theregionalscalemonsoondynamicsinresponsetochangesintheradiativeforcing,andits impactonprecipitationdistributionovermonsoonregions.Allregionalmonsoonsimulationsareconductedat25kmhorizontalgridspacingusinglateralandlowerboundaryforcingfromthreeCMIP5GCMs,eachcovering1970to2100undertwoRadiativeConcentrationPathways(RCP2.6andRCP8.5)inthe21stcenturyprojectionsperiod.Wemakeuseof Lagrangianbasedmoistureback trajectoryanalysis tounderstand the variations in moisture sourcing from contributing oceanic and terrestrial sources,dynamic and thermodynamics divers of those variations, and their impacts on the precipitationdistribution at varying time-scales. Additionally, we compare results from each of the regionalmonsoonstounderstandthecommonalitiesanddissimilaritiesintheregionalprecipitationresponses,including those related with themonsoon onset, precipitation seasonality and extremes, and thetimingofemergencewhenprojectedchangesarepermanentlyabovethebaselinevariability.Useofcentennial-scale,multipleRCPandmultiGCMdrivenRegCM4simulationsprovideanopportunitytounderstandtherobustnessaswellasthesensitivityofprojectedfine-scaleregionalmonsoonchangestovariouslevelsofradiativeforcing.

Keywords:globalmonsoons,RegCM4


C1-P-06

InvestigationandprojectionofHumanThermalComfortStressoverWestBengal,IndiausingobservationsandCORDEXclimatemodelexperiments

SourabhBal,SwamiVivekanandaInstituteofScience&Technology,India

Numerous studies feature the extreme human bio-meteorological conditions in terms of humanthermal comfort index in India for the last few decades. This research highlights the human bio-meteorological conditionsand itsvariability inWestBengal (oneof thedenselypopulatedstateofIndia) for the last 50 years by using Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The meteorologicalvariablesfrommeteorologicalstationsinWestBengalareusedtocalculateUTCIandthecomputedUTCIisalsocomparedwiththeUTCIcalculatedfromtheregionalclimatemodelfromtheCORDEX-southAsiaexperiments.TheresultsshowedincreasingtrendofUTCIinalmostallthestationsofWestBengalduringthestudyperiod.Inaddition,futurehumanthermalcomfortisprojectedforKolkataanditsneighbouringdistricts(capitalcityofWestBengal)underthescenariosofRCP4.5andRCP8.5.ThefutureprojectionofUTCI inKolkata and its rural outskirtswith climate change taken into accountsuggeststhatannualaggregateofheatstressdayswillincreasesignificantlywhilethenothermalstressdaysorcoldstressdayswillreduce.

Keywords:UrbanHeatIsland,HumanThermalStress


C1-P-07

PredictingDenguecasesinKolkata,IndiabasedonvariationofclimateusingZero-InflatedRegressionModel

SourabhBal,SwamiVivekanandaInstituteofScience&Technology,India

SourabhBal,SwamiVivekanandaInstituteofScience&Technology,India;SaharSodoudi,InstituteforMeteorology,FreieUniversitat,

Dengueisoneofthemostseriousvector-borneinfectiousdiseasesinKolkata,Indiaanditsvirusesandtheirvectorsaresensitivetoclimatechange.ThewidespreadcharacteristicsofdengueinKolkataareidentified with some key meteorological factors such as maximum temperature, minimumtemperature, relative humidity and rainfall on the basis of statistically significant cross-correlationcoefficientvalues.Thestatisticalmodelondenguecaseswasframedwiththekeyfactorsforthefirst120monthsofthedatasetfrom2005-2016.Theremainingmonthswereusedtovalidatethemodel.Finally,climatevariablesfromtheCoordinatedRegionalClimateDownscalingExperiment(CORDEX)forSouthAsiaregionwere input intothedevelopedstatisticalmodeltoprojecttheoccurrencesofdengue infections under different climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). It has beenestimated that from2020-2100,denguecaseswillalwaysbehigher fromSeptember toNovemberwithmorecasesinRCP8.5(871casesperyear)thanRCP4.5(530casesperyear).ThisstudyfurtherevaluatesthatfromDecembertoFebruary,increasesincarbondioxideconcentrationunderRCP8.5leadstowarmerweatherconditionsessentialforthesurvivalandmultiplicationofvectors,withmorethantwotimesthedenguecasesthaninRCP4.5.

Keywords:Mosquitobornedisease,Dengue


C1-P-08

HydroclimatologicalvariablesintheSouthAmericaCORDEXdomainfortheAmazonRiverBasin

AlejandroBuiles-Jaramillo,InstituciónUniversitariaColegioMayordeAntioquia,FacultaddeArquitecturaeIngeniería,Colombia

AlejandroBuiles-Jaramillo,InstituciónUniversitariaColegioMayordeAntioquia,FacultaddeArquitecturaeIngeniería,Colombia;VanesaPántano,DepartamentodeCienciasdelaAtmosferaylosOcéanos.UniversidaddeBuenosAires.ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas

(CONICET),BuenosAires,Argentina,Argentina

Introduction:With7.0x106km2theAmazonRiverbasinrepresentsthemostimportanthydrologicalregioninSouthAmerica.TheAmazondischargesapproximately200,000m3s-1becomingthemainsourceoffreshwaterfromthecontinenttotheAtlanticOcean.Methodologyanddata:OuraimistostudytherepresentationofprecipitationandevapotranspirationoftheRegionalClimateModelRCA4v3drivenbythenineGlobalClimateModelsavailablefortheSouthAmericadomaininCORDEX.Forthatpurpose,weselectedascomparisonperiodtheverificationperiodoftheIPCCmodelverification,between1986and2006atamonthlytimescale.Theperformanceofthemodelsiscomparedwithtwodatasets, theone fromGPCC formonthlyprecipitationand theone fromGLEAM formonthlyevapotranspiration. Results: Accounting for the long termmeans of the variables in the period ofanalysis,modelsunderestimateprecipitationby19%andunderestimateevapotranspirationby4%.When analyzed by wet (January) and dry (July) seasons we find that for precipitation there isunderestimationduringthedryseasonthatcanreachupto70%andunderestimationintheorderof60% for thewet seasonconsistently inmodelCSIRO. In thecaseofevapotranspiration, thehigherunderestimationsareofapproximately30%inmodelCSIRO.However,asforthespatialdistributionoftheRMSE,thenortheastoftheAmazonpresentsthehighesterrorsforevapotranspirationandthenorthoftheAmazonforprecipitation.Finally,projectionspresent increase inannualamplitudeforbothvariablesunderthemostsevereclimatechangescenario.Conclusions:WiththeresultssofarwecanconcludethatCORDEXmodelscanbeusedforassessmentofhydroclimatologicalconditionsofthebasintakingintoaccountthatthereisageneralunderestimationofbothvariablesandthatCSIROisamongsttheninemodelstheonewiththelowerperformanceinordertorepresenttheanalyzedvariables.

Keywords:AmazonRiverBasin,SAM-CORDEX,Hydroclimatology,Waterresourcesplanning


C1-P-09

EnergysimulationofsocialhousinginArgentina:howextremesandclimatechangeimpactontheenergydemand

AndreaF.Carril,UniversidaddeBuenosAires-ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET),BuenosAires,

Argentina

AndreaF.CARRIL,UniversidaddeBuenosAires-ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET),BuenosAires,

Argentina,-;TaneaCoronato,UniversidadNacionaldeRosario-ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas,InstitutodeFísicaRosario(IFIR/CONICET-UNR),Rosario,Argentina,Argentina;RitaAbalone,UniversidadNacionaldeRosario-ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas,InstitutodeFísicaRosario(IFIR/CONICET-UNR).FacultaddeCienciasExactas,IngenieríayAgrimensura(UNR),Rosario,Argentina,Argentina;PabloZaninelli,UniversidaddeBuenosAires-ConsejoNacionaldeInvestigacionesCientíficasyTécnicas,CentrodeInvestigacionesdelMarylaAtmósfera(CIMA/UBA-CONICET),BuenosAires.FacultaddeCienciasAstronómicasyGeofísicas

(UNLP),LaPlata,Argentina,Argentina

Becauseone-thirdofthetotalenergydemandinArgentinacorrespondstotheresidentialsector,thereisanurgentneedtodefinecriteriaandimplementmeasures,includingthelabelingofenergyefficiencyof buildings, the rational use of energy, and the sustainable construction. Energy simulation ofbuildingsisaworkingareathatisatthecenteroftheproblemandanessentialresourceforestimatingthe energy consumption associated with the use of housing. This requirement is also stronglydependenton theclimatic conditionsof theplacewhere thehouse is locatedandconsidering thecomfortconditionsrequiredforeachclimate.

The occurrence of extreme events and changes in its characteristics (e.g., increase, intensificationand/or changes in the frequencyofoccurrenceofwarmspells)will havean impacton theenergysector.Toestimateit,weperformaseriesofexperimentsusingabuildings’energysimulationplatform(EnergyPlus)toevaluatethehygrothermalbehaviorofsocialhousesinRosarioCity(Argentina),forcedby boundary conditions from CORDEX models. Aim of this work is to (i) study the hygrothermalbehaviorofsocialhouses,(ii)definedesignimprovementsandestimatechangesintheaverageenergydemand,and(iii)analyzetheimpactoftheoccurrenceofextremeeventsand(iv)theimpactoftheclimatechangeonthepeaksofenergydemandduetoconsumptionfromtheresidentialsector.

Keywords: Energy demand, residential sector, confort conditions, extreme events, Rosario City,Argentina


C1-P-10

Multi-modelprojectionsofclimatechangehotspotsinthePhilippines

FayeAbigailCruz,ManilaObservatory,Philippines

FayeAbigailCruz,FranciaAvila,ManilaObservatory,Philippines;ShaneMarieVisaga,GemmaTeresaNarisma,ManilaObservatory;AteneodeManilaUniversity,Philippines;JulieMaeDado,

ManilaObservatory,Philippines;FredolinTangang,UniversitiKebangsaanMalaysia;RamkhamhaengUniversity,Malaysia;LiewJuneng,UniversitiKebangsaanMalaysia,Malaysia;ThanhNgo-Duc,UniversityofScienceandTechnologyofHanoi,VietnamAcademyofScienceand

Technology,Vietnam;TanPhan-Van,VNUUniversityofScience,Vietnam;JerasornSantisirisomboon,RamkhamhaengUniversity,Thailand;PatamaSinghruck,ChulalongkornUniversity,Thailand;DodoGunawan,AgencyforMeteorology,ClimatologyandGeophysics,Indonesia;EdvinAldrian,Agency

forAssessmentandApplicationofTechnology,Indonesia

Giventhe impactsof futureclimatechange,the identificationofpotentialclimatechangehotspots(i.e.areashighlyresponsivetochangesinclimate)isusefulforriskassessment,inordertopreparecontextualizedadaptationstrategies.InthePhilippines,previousanalysesofobservationrecordshaveshown significant trends and changes in climate in particular areas. Using themulti-model,multi-scenarioprojectionsofSEACLID/CORDEXSoutheastAsia,thisstudyaimstoexaminehowtheseclimatechange hotspots will change in the future, as well as to identify potentially new hotspots due tosignificantchanges inmagnitudeand/orvariability.Changes inclimatemeansandextremes in thePhilippinesareanalyzedforthreetimeperiods(2016–2035,2046–2065,2080–2099)underRCP4.5andRCP8.5scenarios,relativetothe1986–2005baselineperiod. Initialresultsshowwarmingthatcanreach4°Conaverageatendof the21stcenturyundertheRCP8.5scenario.Modelsgenerallyagreeon thedirectionofchange in the temperatureextreme indices,butalsoshowdifferences inspatialextent,frequencyofoccurrence,anddurationofwarm/coldspells.FuturedrierconditionsarealsoprojectedinmostpartsofthePhilippines,asindicatedbydecreasesinannualrainfallandheavywet days, and increases (decreases) in consecutive dry (wet) days, but withmore intense rainfallevents. Compared to temperature, there is more variability in projected changes in precipitationextremes,intermsofdirectionofchangeandspatialdistribution.Forexample,somemodelsprojectnorthwestLuzontobewetter,andMindanaoislandtobedrier,whichwouldhaveseriousimpactsonthesevulnerableagriculturalregions.

Keywords:climateextremes,hotspots,Philippines,CORDEXSoutheastAsia


C1-P-11

EvaluationofthenumericalmodelwithCORDEXRegionalClimateModelsforheavyprecipitationintheMeghnaBasinregion

MohanKumarDas,InstituteofWaterandFloodManagement(IWFM),BUET,Dhaka,Bangladesh,Bangladesh

MohanKumarDas,InstituteofWaterandFloodManagement(IWFM),BUET,Dhaka,Bangladesh,Bangladesh;A.K.M.SaifulIslam,InstituteofWaterandFloodManagement(IWFM),BUET,Dhaka,Bangladesh,Bangladesh;Md.JamalUddinKhan,LEGOS,UniversitédeToulouse,CNES,CNRS,IRD,

UPS,Toulouse,France

Predictionofheavyprecipitation(HP)inducedfloodincidentsischallengingwhentheyhappenonthehighterrainofMeghalayaPlateauandnearbyareas. ImprovingthesimulationofthePre-monsoon(March-May)mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is important as such events routinely result inrainstorms,flashflood,floodingeventsandsignificantlossof livesandpropertiesoverBangladesh,Indianeastern,northeasternregionandneighborhood.TheinfluxofmoisturefromtheBayofBengal(BoB) energizes these rainstorms systems as it passes over Meghalaya and northern parts ofBangladesh and thus produces heavy convective and stratiform rain over Meghalaya and thesurroundingareas.Althoughextremeprecipitationandrunoffaretherootcausesoftheflashflood,the stretches of valley and highland plateaus of Indo-Bangla region play an important role in theweathersystemduetoitsextraordinarygeographyandclimate.ThevalleyandplateausofIndo-Banglaregionisthewettestplaceonplanetearth.ItisimportanttopredictheavyprecipitationpreciselyforassessingfloodsandflashfloodovertheregionoftheMeghnabasin.Theglobalprecipitationproductsarehelpful forunderstanding rainfall patternover adata scare region. For the regional study, themesoscale numericalmodel Advanced Research version of theWeather Research and Forecasting(WRF-ARW) isusedforestimatingheavyprecipitation inafinerresolutionfortheHPeventofpre-monsoon season 2004, 2010, 2016 and 2017. Sensitivity analyses of different parameterizationschemesareappliedinthisstudy.Themodelsimulatedprecipitationisassessedwiththeavailableraingauge observation along with India Meteorological Department (IMD) Global PrecipitationMeasurement (GPM)missionmerged datasets. The best and worst performing parameterizationscombination schemes are identified after doing statistical analyses. In the study, theWRFmodelsimulatedprecipitationareevaluatedwiththeCoordinatedRegionalClimateDownscalingExperiment(CORDEX)modelsdataforabetterunderstandingofregionalanalysis.Tounderstandtheinfluencemodelgridresolution,globaltoregional(g2r-1:3)andglobaltoconvection-permitting(g2c-1:9)scaleratiosaretestedinthepresentstudy.

Keywords:Heavyprecipitation,flood,Parameterization,WRFARW,CORDEXmodels


C1-P-12

EPICC–across-sectoralandcross-regionalintercomparisonofclimateimpactsandadaptationoptions

StephanieGleixner,PotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch,Germany

StephanieGleixner,HolgerHoff,PotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch,Germany;SaurabhBhardwaj,TheEnergyandResourcesInstitute,India;StefanLange,PotsdamInstituteforClimate

ImpactResearch,Germany

Theimpactsofclimatechangeandaccordinglyadaptationoptionsvarystronglyregionallyandhavetobeassessedcontext-specifically.TheEastAfrica -Peru - IndiaClimateCapacities (EPICC)projectinvestigatestheseimpactsforthreetropicalcountries-Tanzania,Peru,India-thatdifferstronglyfromeachotherintermsofgeographyaswellastheirvulnerabilitytoachangingclimate.Indialoguewithpartners frompolicymaking, theprivatesector,civil societyandscience,EPICChas identified localdemandsforclimatechangeimpactassessmentsandfortestingadaptationoptions.

Based on observations, global climate projections as well as high-resolution regional climateprojectionsfromCORDEX,weinvestigatetheseclimatechangeimpactsandadaptionoptionsacrossdifferent sectors. Climate data from the CORDEX simulationswill be bias-adjusted and statisticallydownscaledtothelocalleveltoallowforlocalanalyseswithparticularfocusonextremeevents.Thesehigh-resolutionclimatesimulationsprovidethebasisforassessmentsfortheagriculturalaswellasthehydrologicalsector,usingasuiteofstatisticalandprocess-basedimpactmodels.

Results feed into assessments of migration in the context of climate change, primarily internalmigration related to changes in subsistence agriculture productivity. This project enablesintercomparisons of regional studies across different sectors and different tropical locations andcontexts, using the same approaches, models and statistical tools, always focusing on local user-demands.

Keywords:climateadaption,climateimpacts,cross-sectorial


C1-P-13

Extremewinterprecipitationvs.modelresolutionacrosstheUpperMississippiRiverValley

WilliamGutowski,IowaStateUniversity,UnitedStates

WilliamGutowski,JacobSpender,RaymondArritt,IowaStateUniversity,UnitedStates;MelissaBukovsky,NCAR,UnitedStates

AswecontinuetoseeanincreaseinextremeprecipitationanomaliesduringwintermonthsacrosstheUnitedStates,itisimportanttofocusonhowtosimulatebettertheseevents.Theseeventscancausesubstantialfloodingthatcanseverelyerodesoilandweakenenergy-transmissioninfrastructure.Onewaytobetterunderstandandsimulatetheseextremeprecipitationeventsistoassesshowresolutioninregionalclimatemodelsaffectsprocessesleadingtoextremeprecipitation.Duringwintermonths,synopticdynamicsplayan important role inextremeprecipitationeventsandshouldbe fairlywellresolvedinregionalclimatemodels.

Thisstudyfocusesonextremesub-dailyprecipitationintheUpperMississippiRiverValleyduringthemonthsofDecember, January, andFebruary (DJF). Weanalyzeextreme,6-hourlyprecipitationassimulatedbyRegCM4andWRFusingERA-Interimboundaryconditionsfortheperiod2002through2012atgridspacingsof12,25and50km.Wecomparecompositesofsimulated6-hourlyextremeevents with those occurring in NOAA Stage IV quantitative precipitation for the same period. Inaddition,wecomparecomposite6-hourlyfieldsof2mtemperature,500hPageopotentialheight,10mwind,and2mspecifichumidityforthesimulatedeventswithcompositesofthesamefieldsduringStageIVevents,usingtheNorthAmericanRegionalReanalysis.WeevaluatehowchangingresolutioninthetwomodelsaffectstheintensityofextremeeventsversusStageIVeventsaswellashowthecirculationandthermodynamicsoftheeventschangeswithresolution,highlightingfactorsaremostsensitivetoresolutionandtheirimpactonreplicatingobservedbehavior.

Keywords:Extremeprecipitation,modelresolution


C1-P-14

ClimatechangeimpactsonhydrologyandwaterresourcesofUpperAwashSub-Basin,Ethiopia

MekonnenDaba,InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA),ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences(CAAS),Beijing,China

MekonnenDaba,InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA),ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences(CAAS),Beijing,China,China;KassaTadele,TransportConstructionDesignS.Company,AddisAbaba,Ethiopia,Ethiopia;AndualemShiferaw,National

DroughtMitigationCenter,SchoolofNaturalResources,UniversityofNebraska-Lincoln,USA,UnitedStates;XixiWang,DepartmentofCivilEngineering,OldDominionUniversity,VA,USA,UnitedStates;SongcaiYou,InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture(IEDA),Chinese

AcademyofAgriculturalSciences(CAAS),Beijing,China,China;AssefaMelesse,DepartmentofEarthandEnvironment,FloridaInternationalUniversity,Miami,FL,USA,UnitedStates

TheAwashRiverbasinisthemostirrigatedareainEthiopiafacingcriticalwaterresourcesdegradationduetoclimatechange.Climatechangealtersregionalhydrologicconditionsimpactingwaterresourcesystems.Suchhydrologicchangeswillaffectalmosteveryaspectofhumanwell-being.AgricultureisthemainstayofEthiopianeconomy.Thegrowingpopulationandeffortstomeetthefoodsecurityofthecountrywillcallforexpandingirrigationontopoftherain-fedagriculturewhichinturnwilldependonavailablefreshwaterresources.Asthemostirrigatedbasininthecountry,theavailabilityofwaterintheAwashRiverbasinhasdeclinedbecauseoftheincreasedwaterabstractionsforvarioususes.ThemainobjectiveofthisstudyistoassesstheimpactsofclimatechangeonsurfacewateravailabilityofUpperAwashRiverBasinbyusingSoilandWaterAssessmentTool(SWAT)hydrologicalmodelandRegionalClimateModel (RCM).Regional climatemodel (ECHAM5withA1Bemissionscenario)andmeteorologicalvariablesatlocalscalewereappliedforthreetimeperiods(2020s,2050sand2080s).Bias-correctionmethodshavebeenappliedtoindividualclimatevariablestoadjustRCMdata.RCMsbias correctionmethodswas used for scenario generation to estimate average changes in annualtemperature and rainfall. The bias correction approach applied in this study gave the reasonableresults. SWATwas calibrated and validated to simulate future hydrologic variables in response tochanges inprecipitationandtemperature.Theresultsofcalibrationandvalidationmodel indicatedthatSWATsimulatedmonthlyflowwell.ThiswasshowedbytheNash-Sutcliffesimulationefficiency(ENS)andCoefficientofdetermination(R2),whichwere0.80and0.85forthecalibrationand0.78and0.83forthevalidation,respectively.Theresultsshowedthattheprojectedclimatechangescenarioincreaseinrainfall forthetimeperiodof2020s,whereasreducesinrainfall forthetimeperiodsof2050sand2080sandtheprojectedtemperaturesincreaseforallthreetimeperiods.TheSWATmodelresultsshowthattheannualstreamflowofUpperAwashSub-Basinwasreducedby2.46%and18.14%in2050sand2080s,respectively,whilethestreamflowincreasedin2020sby4.90%forA1Bscenario.Thesimulatedflowat2050sand2080s,withA1BscenariofromRCM,showedreductionofrunoffby1.52% and 3.50%, respectively in the Sub-Basin and it was directly related to the reduction inprecipitation,while theannual runoff increases in2020sby8%.Thus,precipitationbeingthemaindriverinthewaterbalancecomputation,itsvariabilitybothannuallyandseasonallyhasadirectimpactontheothersimulatedwaterbudgetcomponents.Modelresultshowedthatabout44.36%ofannualrainfallcontributestostreamflowassurfacerunoff.Generally,theresultsrevealedthatchangesinclimatic variables, such as reduction in rainfall and change in both minimum and maximum

temperaturewouldhaveasignificantimpactonthestreamflowandsurfacerunoff,causingapossiblereductiononthetotalwateravailabilityintheSub-Basin.TheresultsobtainedinthisstudycanprovideusefulinformationforfuturewaterresourceplanningandmanagementinthefaceofclimatechangeintheupperAwashBasin.Itisconcludedthatfutureclimatechangebytheendofthe21stcenturyaremostlikelytoproducesignificantimpactsonthesurfacerunoffandstreamflow.

Keywords:A1BEmissionScenario,ClimateChange,RCM,Hydrology,WaterResource


C1-P-15

Spatiotemporaldynamicsofrainfall,temperature,andvegetationgreennessforDhidhessaRiverBasin,Ethiopia

GizachewKabite,EthiopianSpaceScienceandTechnologyInstitute,Ethiopia

GizachewKabite,EthiopianSpaceScienceandTechnologyInstitute,Ethiopia;MisganaMuleta,CaliforniaPolytechnicStateUniversity,UnitedStates;BerhanGessesse,EthiopiaSpaceScienceand

TechnologyInstitute,Ethiopia;SifanKoriche,ReadingUniversity,UnitedKingdom

Understandingthespatiotemporaldynamicsbetweenclimatevariablesandvegetationgreennesscanbebeneficialtodesignclimatechangeadaptationstrategies.However,suchastudyislackinginmanybasinsofEthiopia.Theobjectiveof thisstudywastoanalyzethepastandfuturetemperatureandrainfalltrends,anddeterminetheirspatialrelationshipwithvegetationgreenness,characterizedusingNormalizedDifferenceinVegetationIndex(NDVI),fortheDhidhessaRiverbasin.Qualitycheckedhighspatialresolutionsatellitedatasetswereusedforthestudy.Mann-KendalltestandSen’sslopemethodwereusedforthetrendanalysis.Thespatial relationshipbetweenclimatedynamicsandNDVIwasanalyzedusingGeographicallyWeightedRegression(GWR)technique.PastandfutureclimatetrendanalysisgenerallyshowedwettingandwarmingfortheDhidhessaRiverbasinwherethedegreeoftrendsvariesfordifferenttimeandspatialscales.Aseasonalshiftinrainfallwasalsoobservedforthebasin.Thesefindings informedthattherewillbenegative impactonrain-fedagricultureandwateravailabilityinthebasin.NDVItrendsanalysisshowedsignificantincreasingtrendsfordryseasonandannualtimescalesanddecreasingtrendforthemainrainyseason.Spatially,asignificantincreaseinNDVItrendwasobservedonlyforthewarmmoistclimaticzone.TheincreasingNDVItrendscouldbeduetoagroforestrypracticesbutdoesnotnecessarilyindicateimprovedforestcoverageinthebasin.AdecliningNDVIduringthemainrainseasonindicatesexpansionofagriculturallandbyclearingforestand shrubland. The NDVI dynamics is positively correlated to rainfall (r2=0.62) and negativelycorrelated tominimum (r2=0.58) andmaximum (r2=0.45) temperature. The study revealed stronginteractionbetween the climate variables and vegetation for thebasin that further influences thebiophysical terrestrial processes like hydrologic responses of a basin. This study provides helpfulinformationtodeviceclimatechangeadaptationstrategiesatlocalscales.

Keywords:Spatiotemporalclimatedynamics,Vegetationgreenness,Mann-Kendall test,Sen’sslopemethod,DhidhessaRiverbasin


C1-P-16

UsingCORDEXdatatoestimatefuturehydro-ecologicalconditionsinNorth-WesternBlackSeacoast

ValeriyKhokhlov,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

ValeriyKhokhlov,YuriiTuchkovenko,LarisaNedostrelova,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

Thefuturehydro-ecologicalconditionsinsmallwatershedsofSouthernUkrainewereestimatedusingthe outcomes from the CORDEX Project – the 14 runs of 5 regional climatemodels (RCM). In thenearestfuture,2021–2050,therisingtemperature(about0.8°Cper30years)andsteadyprecipitation(~470mmperyear)during2021-2050inSouthernUkrainewillbeprobablyobserved.Let’snotethatprecipitationwillusuallydecrease inUkraineandthesouthernregion isratheranexceptiontotherule. In this Figure, we can see (i) changeable increase of temperature and a sharp decrease ofprecipitation during the 2023-26; (ii) sharp increase of temperature following a decrease ofprecipitation during the 2028-31; and (iii) sharp decrease of temperature against the steadyprecipitationbackgroundduring2037-40.Weusedthestandardizedprecipitationevapotranspirationindex(SPEI)toinvestigatespatiotemporaldroughtsvariabilitycausedbyclimatechange.TheSPEIisthemulti-scalardrought indexandallowsdetermining theonset,durationandseverityofdroughtconditionsondifferenttimescales.Itiscommonpracticetoassessthehydrologicaldroughtsonthetimescale13–24months.Theanalysisofnearest-futureSPEI timeseriesshowedthat thetrendtodrierconditionswillbeexpectedinNorth-WesternBlackSeacoast–thenextlongandseveredroughtscanberegisteredabout2025andafter2030.Moreover,wecanexpectinalllikelihoodthattheperiod2031-2040willbedriest,anddurationofdroughtinthatregionwillbeafewyears.WealsoconsideredaconnectionbetweentimeseriesoftheSPEIonthe24-monthtimescaleandannualrunoffonafewhydrologicalsitesinsomesmallwatersheds.ThetemporalfeaturesofwaterflowchangesareincloseagreementwiththeSPEI24duringthenearestfuture–allyearswithhighwaterflowswereregisteredduringthewetyears,i.e.theabsenceofatmosphericdroughts.

Keywords:Termperature,Droughts,Runoff


C1-P-17

Ananalysisoftheabnormalfloodanditsimpactonenvironmentandsocio-economicconditionsinKerala

ShadanananNairKrishnapillai,CentreforEarthResearchandEnvironmentManagement,India

ClimatechangeanditsimpactareevidentintheStateofKeralainIndia.InAugust2018,abnormallyheavymonsoonrainsleadtotheworstfloodinginacentury,killingaround500peopleandthousandsof livestock, displacing one million people and damaging 50000 housed, roads and otherinfrastructures.EstimatedlossesamounttomorethanUS$3billion.Seasonalrainfallwas42%abovenormalandrainfallduring1to19Augustwas164%abovenormal.Around414mmrainfalloccurredduringAugust15-17,whichledtosevereflooding.Steepslopesanddestructionofwetlandsaddedtoits severity. All 39major dams had reached their full reservoir level by the end of July, andwereincapableofabsorbingthetorrentialvolumesinAugust.Afterflood,surfacewaterbodies,especiallyriversaredryingupfastbecauseofabnormal landslidesandsedimentation.Around8to10%ofallreservoirswerealreadyfilledwithsandbecauseofdeforestationandurbanization.Asaresultofthelossofsurfacesoilandfailureofnortheastmonsoon,groundwaterlevelinthestatefellby3metresandthestateexperiencedseriouswatercrisis in thebeginningof2019 itself.Destructionofcheckdamsanderosionanddeepeningofriversallowfastflowofgroundwatertowardsthesea.Decreaseinrunoffnowpermitssalinityintrusionfarinland.Statewasnotpreparedtocopewiththeunexpectedsituationandfloodinitiatedseveralsocio-economicissuessuchasshortageofreliablewater,hikingpriceoffoodandwater,conflictsoverallocation,spreadofcontagiousdiseasesandlargeinvestmentto rebuild infrastructure and rehabilitate the displaced population. This study analyses thehydrometeorologicalextremesinKeraladuring2018,trendsinextremesandtheirimpactsondifferentfacetsoflife.Resultsshowanincreasingtrendinextremesinnearfuture.Guidelinesfordevelopingabetterclimatepolicyandadaptationstrategyhavebeenprovided.

Keywords:Climatechange,Kerala,flood,socio-economic,adapation


C1-P-18

Numericalsimulationofsynoptictoquasi-biweeklydisturbancesinvolvedinthesummer2003heavyrainfallinEastChina

HongboLiu,LASG,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,China

During theMeiyu season of summer 2003, the Yangtze andHuai River Basin (YHRB) encounteredanomalouslyheavyrainfall,andthenorthernYHRB(nYHRB)sufferedaseverefloodbecauseoffivecontinuousextremerainfallevents.A spectralanalysisofdaily rainfalldataoverYHRB reveals twodominantfrequencymodes:onepeakonday14andtheotheronday4,i.e.,thequasi-biweeklyandsynoptic-scalemode, respectively.Results indicate that the two scalesofdisturbances contributedsouthwesterly and northeasterly anomalies, respectively, to the Meiyu frontal convergence oversouthernYHRB(sYHRB)atthepeakwetphase.Thepassagesoffivesynoptic-scaledisturbancesfinallyled to thesevere floodingover thenYHRBregion. In this study,a29-day (June15– July13,2003)regionalclimatesimulationisconductedusingtheWeatherResearchandForecast(WRF)model.Thesimulationreproducesreasonablywellthespatialdistributionandtemporalevolutionoftherainfalloverbothregions,especiallythefrequentheavyrainfalleventsoverthenYHRBregions.Inaddition,boththequasi-biweeklyandsynoptic-scaledisturbancesareclearinthesimulationresults,whichwellmatchtherawsimulatedrainfallpeaks.

Keywords:synoptictoquasi-biweeklydisturbances,heavyrainfall,numericalsimulation


C1-P-19

FeaturesofspatiotemporaldistributionandmanagementissuesofdangerousmeteorologicalphenomenaontheterritoryoftheRepublicofArmenia

VarduhiMargaryan,YerevanStateUniversity.FacultyofGeographyandGeology.DepartmentofPhysicalGeographyandHydrometeorology.,Armenia

Dangerousmeteorological or heliogeographysical phenomena (dangerous phenomena) are naturalphenomenaarising intheatmosphereandhydrospherethataredangerous for the life,healthandpropertyof thepopulationby their importance, intensity durationor timeof occurrence, and cancausesignificantmaterialdamagetodifferentbranchesoftheeconomy.Dangerousmeteorologicalphenomenaarethosethatcanorhavealreadyledtonaturaldisastersandemergencies.

Statistics show that the number of human casualties and material losses due to hazardousmeteorologicalphenomenaisgrowing.Inrecentdecades,thenumberofdangerousphenomenaandtheir climatic extremeshas also increased, and the zoneof their impacthas increased.Dangerousmeteorologicalphenomenacaalsointensifyorcontributetootherdisasters,forexample,thespreadofinfectiousdiseases,desertification,theaccumulationoftoxicgasesintheatmosphere,theinvasionof locusts, radiationaccidents and soon. So theirobservationsand studies are very important forresearch,weatherforecasts,aswellasforthecorrectandeffectiveorganizationanddevelopmentofworksofawiderangeofsectorsoftheeconomy.Consequently,thepurposeofthiswork:todiscussandanalyzethedynamicsofchangesinthehazardousmeteorologicalphenomenaofthestudyarea,thepatternsofspatialdistributiontoassessthevulnerabilityandriskoftheterritoryoftherepublicinrelationtohazardousdangerousphenomena.

Forthesolutionofthetasksthetheoreticalbasiswastherelevantscientificandresearchworks.Asasourcematerial,actualobservationsdataoftheMinistryofEmergencySituationsoftheRepublicofArmenia“Service forHydrometeorologyandactive influenceonatmosphericphenomena”andthedata of the RA National Statistical Service have been used. In the work methods are applied:geographic,generalscientific,characteristics,statistical,analysisandcorrelation.

Wenotethatmorethan100naturalhazardsanddangerousphenomenainherentintheterritoryofArmenia can be identified about 10, the most frequently recurring. These include: earthquakes,landslides,mudslides,floods,destruction,fallofstones,thunderstorms,hail,highgroundwaterlevel,forestfiresandsoon.

Asaresultoftheresearchitwasfoundoutthatintherepublictherearedifferenttrendsinthechangeofdangerousmeteorologicalphenomena,differentdegreesofvulnerabilitytothisorthatdangerousphenomena.Thus,itisnecessarytocreateadatabaseofdangerousmeteorologicalphenomenaandmakeitaccessibletothepopulation,todevelopandimplementalocaldetailedstudyofhazardousmeteorological phenomena, to hold frequent meetings with the public, to conduct a sociologicalsurveyamongthegeneralpopulation,todevelopmechanismsforeffectivemanagementpolicies.

Keywords:dangerousmeteorologicalphenomena,spatiotemporaldistribution,change,management


C1-P-20

MethodofcalculationofmaximumrunoffofspringfloodforungaugedriverscasestudytheDesnariverbasin

ValeriyaOvcharuk,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

ValeriyaOvcharuk,SvetlanaIvashchenko,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

Allmodernmethodsusedtocalculatetherunoffofrivers,bothinUkraineandabroad,arebasedontheassumptionofthestationarynatureoftheformationofalong-termannualrunoff.Itisbelievedthat thedesignvalueofwaterdischarges therareprobabilityofexeedance,obtainedbystatisticalprocessingoverthepastyears,willremainthesameinthefuture.Butatthepresentstagethereisalready a statistical non-stationarity of hydrometeorological processes, which is confirmed byinstrumentallywarmingoftheclimate.

As the calculatedmethod used amodified version of the operatormodel, that allows considering"climateamendment"forthemaximumsnowsupplies,precipitationandrunoffcoefficientsduringtheflood.

Themodifiedvariantoftheoperatormodeltakesintoaccounttheprocessofthetransformationofthe slope influx in to channel runoff through two transformation functions and is proposed as acalculationmethodfordeterminingontheplainterritoryofUkrainethemaximumrunoffduringthespringperiodforungaugedrivers.

TheproposedvariantofdeterminingthemaximumrunoffofspringfloodisimplementedfortheriversoftheDesnabasin.ConsiderationofpossibleclimatechangeismadeusingthedataoftheregionalclimatemodelRACMO2andscenariosRCP4.5andRCP8.5.Analyzingtheresultsobtained,itshouldbenotedthattheresultsarenotsignificantlydifferent,namely,intheRCP4.5scenario,itisforecastedbythedecreaseofthemaximummodulesofspringfloodresourcesby2050atthelevelof5-10%,andinthemorerigorousscenario(RCP8.5)-10-15%.

Keywords:springflood,ungaugedrivers,scenariosRCP4.5andRCP8.5


C1-P-21

Scientificandmethodologicalapproachestotakingintoaccounttheinfluenceofclimatechangeontheminimumriversrunoff

ValeriyaOvcharuk,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

ValeriyaOvcharuk,LiliaKyschenko,OlenaTodorova,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

Inordertoaccountforclimatechangesincalculationsofmaximumrunoff,theauthorhadproposedto introduce"climatecorrections"tothecalculatedvaluesofmaximumwaterdischarges.Asimilarapproach can be applied to theminimum runoff of rivers. Such research was carried out on theexample of the Transcarpathian rivers. If we have the predicted values of air temperature andprecipitation,forexampleduringawarmperiod,andthedependenceofthesevaluesonthepresentdayontheelevation(becauseitthemountainregion),“climatecorrections”canbeintroducedtothevaluesoftheminimumrunoffinthefuture.

Withpurposetoobtainthecalculatingequationsofrelationbetweentheminimumrunoffandthepredictedvaluesoftemperatureandprecipitation,ontheonehand,andlocalfactorsrunoffontheother, themethodofmultiple linearregressions isapplied.Aspredictors,allavailablefactorswereused, namely: average annual air temperature, rainfall for cold and warm periods of the year,latitudinalcoordinates,catchmentarea,forestarea,length,andslopeofrivers.Theaverageheightofthecatchmentwasnotusedinthecalculations,becauseitsinfluenceisrepresentedbythecalculatedvaluesoftemperatureandprecipitation.Themostoptimalequationswerefurtherusedtodeterminethepredictedvaluesoftheminimumrunoffunderdifferentscenarios.

Another possible option considering the impact of climatic changes onminimal rivers runoff is itsinterconnection with the drought index, for example, SPEI. The time series of the SPEI index ondifferentscalesforthesteppezoneofUkraine,inparticularforthebasinoftheSouthernBugRiver,were analyzed for the period 1950-2010. Estimation of the statistical connection between SPEI atdifferenttimescalesanddifferentphasesoftheriverflowoftheSouthernBugRiverduringtheperiod1950-2010showedthattheobtaineddependenciesaresignificant,whichopensupthepossibilityofusingtheindexofdroughtinthemodellingofhydrologicalprocessesinthesteppezoneofUkraine.

Keywords:minimalrunoff,climatechange,droughtindex


C1-P-22

CapturingCo-BehaviorModesinCORDEXregionalclimatemodelsoverSouthernAfrica

KwesiQuagraine,ClimateSystemAnalysisGroup,UniversityofCapeTown,SouthAfrica

KwesiQuagraine,BruceHewitson,ChristopherJack,IzidinePinto,ChristopherLennard,PiotrWolski,ClimateSystemAnalysisGroup,UniversityofCapeTown,SouthAfrica;GrigoryNikulin,

SMHI,Sweden

Weexaminehowco-behaviorofclimateprocessesisrepresentedinCORDEXregionalclimatemodels.Co-behaviordoesplayacrucial role inhowtheregionalclimateofsouthernAfrica is influencedasestablishedinourearlierresearch.Self-OrganizingMap(SOM)techniqueisusedtoclassifycirculationpatternsovertheregion.Inordertoidentifystronglyassociatedpatternsacrossthedatatoexplorehowidentifiedsynoptictypesrelatetotheco-behaviorofthreeimportantlarge-scaledrivers;ElNiñoSouthernOscillation(ENSO),AntarcticOscillation(AAO)andInter-TropicalConvergenceZone(ITCZ),avarimax rotatedPrincipal ComponentAnalysis (PCA) is employedand the statistical significanceofthese patterns are determined by bootstrapping. The nature of co-behavior in CORDEXmodels inrelation to already identified co-behavior modes from observation dataset is assessed. We thenexploreregionalprecipitationandsurface temperatureresponseto thesemodesofco-behavior toimproveregionalclimateunderstanding.

Keywords:regionalclimatemodels,large-scaleprocesses,co-behavior


C1-P-23

RainfallandtemperaturescenariosoverBangladeshbasedonRCPscenariosusingRegCM

Md.MizanurRahman,SunwaySchoolandCollege,Dhaka,Bangladesh

Md.MizanurRahman,Md.NazrulIslam,SunwaySchoolandCollege,Dhaka,Bangladesh

Rainfallandsurfacetemperaturearethemostimportantclimaticvariablesinthecontextofclimatechange. Thus, these variables simulated from ICTP RegCM models have been compared againstobserved (raingauge) data and projected for the middle of twenty first century under theRepresentativeConcentrationPathway(RCP)4.5emissionscenario.ThroughcalibrationandvalidationofRegCMwasadaptedforBangladeshforgeneratingrainfallandtemperaturescenarios.ThemodelgeneratedrainfallwascalibratedwithgroundbasedobserveddatainBangladeshduringtheperiodof1981-2000.BetterperformanceofRegCMobtainedthroughvalidationprocessincreasedconfidenceinutilizingitinthefuturerainfallandtemperatureprojectionforBangladesh.Rainfall,maximumandminimumsurfaceairtemperatureprojectionforBangladeshIsexperimentallyobtainedfortheperiodof2041-2060.Thiswork finds that theRegCMsimulatedRainfall and temperaturearenotdirectlyuseful inapplicationpurpose.However,aftervalidationandcalibration,acceptableperformance isobtained in estimating annual rainfall and maximum and minimum surface air temperature inBangladesh.Changeofrainfallisprojectedabout-1.2percentinpre-monsoon(MAM),-1.4percentinmonsoonseason(JJAS),1.90percentinpost-monsoonSeason(ON)and0.46percentinwinterseason(DJF) during the period of 2041-2060. Similarly, change of maximum and minimum surface airtemperatureisprojectedabout1.4and1.5degreesCelsiusforthesameperiod.

Keywords:Rainfallforecast,temperatureforecast,climatechange,calibration,validation


C1-P-24

ImpactofregionalclimatemodelprojectedchangesonmaizeyieldoverSouthernIndia

SenthilnathanSamiappan,TamilNaduAgriculturalUniversity,India

SenthilnathanSamiappan,TamilNaduAgriculturalUniversity,India;AnnamalaiHariharasubramanian,InternationalPacificResearchCenter,UnitedStates;PrasannaVenkatraman,

PukyongNationalUniversity,Busan,RepublicofKorea,India;HafnerJan,InternationalPacificResearchCenter,UnitedStates

MaizeisoneofthemajorcerealsgrowninsouthernstateofTamilNadu,Indiaandproducesabout1.2million toneswhich contribute 14percent to total cereal production in TamilNadu. Therewas anincreasingdemandformaizegrainsforpoultryfeedandalsoforhumanconsumptionduetostructuralchangesofconsumptionpattern.InTamilNadu,about43precentofcroppingareaunderrainfedandnearly 40 percent ofmaize production comes from rainfed regions. Presently, globalwarminghasbecome a great challenge for the agrarian economy of India. Among various factors, maize yielddependsonthevagariesassociatedwithrainfallandsurfacetemperature.Thesetwoprimaryclimatevariablesareexpectedtochangeinawarmerclimate.Tounderstandtheprojectedmonsoonchangesimpact on maize production is carried out by performing high-resolution regional model climatesimulations(IPRC_RegCM)withmultiplelateralforcing,andtheclimatevariablesfromregionalmodelserveas input intoeconomicmodel.Topredictthe impactofclimatechangeonmaizeyield inthefuture, we used the coefficients of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data and EuropeanReanalysisInterim(Era-Interim)dataasbaselineandpredictedthecurrentyield.Theprojectionstakenfrom CCSM4 (Community Climate System Model) forced high-resolution regional model climatesimulationsandcomputedtheclimatechangeimpactsonmaizeyield.ThispaperpredictsthemaizeyieldfortheRCP6.0scenarioundertheCCSM4modelbyemployingthepaneldataregressionmodel.Themodelestimatestheimpactofmaizeyieldisprojectedtodecreaseby11and23percentfortheIMDandEra-Interimreanalysisdatarespectivelyduringendofthe21stcentury.However,wehavecomparedtheIMDmaizeyieldprojectionswithERA-Interimreanalysesoutputswhichisalsoaproxyforobservations,boththemodelsprojectsinsimilartrendgivesmoreconfidenceandpreciseestimateonourprojections.

Keywords:Climatechangeimpact,Maizeyield,SouthernIndia


C1-P-25

UnderstandingprecipitationextremesoverCORDEXSouthAsia:Aregionalearthsystemmodelassessment

DmitrySein,P.P.ShirshovInstituteofOceanology,RussianFed

DmitrySein,P.P.ShirshovInstituteofOceanology,RussianFed;PankajKumar,2IndianInstituteofScienceEducationandResearch,India;VladimirRyabchenko,P.P.ShirshovInstituteofOceanology,

RussianFed-

The impactofclimatechangewillbemainlyfeltthroughchanges inthe intensityandfrequencyofextremeeventsratherthanchangesinmeanclimate.Itisexpectedthatprecipitationextremeswillenhanceovertropicsinthe21stcentury.WithintheCORDEXSouthAsiaframework,ahigh-resolutionRegional Earth System Model is used to understand the precipitation extremes over south Asiafocusingondifferenthomogeneousregions,aswellasthefuturereturnperiodfrequencyandintensityofextremeeventswillbepresentedwithuncertaintyassessment.

We use a high-resolution regional coupled model setup, which will comprise of the Max PlanckInstitute Ocean Model, including sea ice, and the Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model(MPIOM/HAMOCC)iscoupledviaOASIScouplertotheRegionalatmosphereModel(REMO),andtheHydrologicalDischargemodel(HD).Thissystemhasthedistinctivefeaturethatitsglobaloceanmoduleprovidesthepossibilitytoreducethegridsizeintheregionofinteresttoprovidehighresolutionthereandnottosetthelateralboundaryconditionsintheocean.

HistoricalandclimatechangesimulationswereperformedtounderstandandanalyzevariousaspectsofextremeeventconditionsinIndiaalongwiththestudyofIndianOceanbiogeochemistry,includingphytoplanktonblooms,(focusingontheBayofBengal)and,particularly,climatechangeinfluenceonsea surface temperature (SST)which stronglyeffects Indianmonsoonsandcorrespondingextremeevents.

Keywords:RegionalModeling,SouthAsia,Climatechange,Extremeevents


C1-P-26

ModernspatiotemporaldistributionofsquallsontheterritoryofUkraine

InnaSemenova,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

InnaSemenova,HelenaHelenaNashmudinova,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

AccordingtolaststudiesinUkraine,sincethe1990sthereisageneralincreaseinnumberandintensityof weather phenomena associated with the convection development. Squall is a strong windcharacterizedbyasuddenonset,durationoftheorderofminutesandaccompaniedbychangesinitsdirection.TheUkrainianmeteoserviceusethenextcriteriaofasquall:firsthazardlevelwithawindspeedof15-24m/s;astrongsquallwithawindspeedof25-34m/s;andanextremesquallwithawindspeedmorethan35m/s.

In this study, the spatiotemporal distribution of squalls over the territory ofUkraine duringwarmperiodof2013-2018wasanalyzed.TheobservationsdataatthemeteorologicalstationsinallregionsofUkrainewereused.Duringthestudyperiod384casesofsquallsofvaryingintensitywererecorded.Squallsofthefirsthazardlevelareprevailed(91%).Strongsquallswereobservedin15casesandonlyone squall reachedanextremecriterion.This squallwithawind speedof40m/swas recorded inHenicheskon29June2013.Mostofstrongsquallsoccurredinairmassesunderconditionsofthermalconvection,andanextremesquallformedonthecoldfront.Intheannualdistribution,themaximumof133casesofsquallswereobservedin2013.Intheotheryears,thetotalnumberofsquallsvariedbetween 30-70 cases per year. Themaximum frequency of squalls is in the summermonths. Theearliestandlatestsquallswererecordedin2017onApril3andonOctober29,respectively.Thelargestnumberofsquallswasobservedinthesouthernregions(24%ofallcases),mostofthem(18%)wereintheOdessaregion.TheleastfrequencyofsquallsisinthewesternpartofUkraine.ComparisonofthefrequencyofsquallsinUkrainewiththebaseperiod1961-1990showedthatinthewesternpartofthecountrythenumberofsquallcasesdecreased.Intheotherregions,thenumberofsquallshasincreasedsignificantly,andintheOdessaregionalmostdoubled.

Keywords:squall,windspeed,convectionphenomenon


C1-P-27

Featuresoftheregionalatmosphericcirculation,leadingtoformationofdrywindsinUkraine

InnaSemenova,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

InnaSemenova,MariaSlizhe,OdessaStateEnvironmentalUniversity,Ukraine

Withdrawal

Dryandhotwindnamedas“sukhovey”isawidespreadhighimpactphenomenon,whichreducesthecropyieldsinUkraine.AccordingtocriteriaoftheUkrainianmeteoservicedrywindisfix,ifatleastinone term of observation values of three meteorological parameters simultaneously amounts: airtemperature 25°C and higher,wind speed at 10m height is 5m/s andmore, and the relative airhumidityis30%orlower.

Theaimof thestudy is todetermine the synopticconditions that led to formationofdrywinds inUkraineduringtheperiod1995-2015.

Accordingtoobservationsfrom24stationsofUkraineforinallagroclimaticzonesmaximumfrequencyofdrywindsobservedinAugust:from129daysinSteppeto21daysinMixedForests.Analysisofhigh-level pressure fields shown that during dry wind period over Europe a meridional atmosphericcirculation is establish. The upper-level trough is under Western Europe and upper-level ridgeprevailedunderEasternEurope.

AnalysisofHYSPLITbackwardtrajectoriesshownthatattheSLPairflowsfromthenorth-east,westandeasthavetheequalfrequencies(19-20%).In16%casesrelativelyshorttrajectoriesformeddirectlyoverUkraine.Atthelevelof1500mflowsfromthewesthavemostfrequency(30%cases).Theflowsfromnorth-west,northandeastdirectionsareobservedinhalfofallcases.Atthelevelof3000mairparticles trajectories from the west prevailed (45% cases). Along moving trajectories the airtemperaturewasincreasedatallobservedlevels.Thelargestheatingwas17-23°Cper120hoursatthe levelof1500m.At thesametime,downwardairmoving fromtheupper levelswasobserved,whichledtoadiabaticheatingoftheairmass.Theassessmentoflapserateshowedthat,onaverage,itwas0.98°C/100minthelayerof0-1500mand0.68°C/100minthelayerof1500-3000m.So,duringthedrywindformationthelapseratesclosetodryadiabaticvalueinthelowertropospherethatleadstomaximumheatinganddrying.

Keywords:drywind,backwardtrajectory,adiabaticheating


C1-P-28

SynopticconditionsandfrequencyofheavyrainfallsinBelarus

KatsiarynaSumak,Belhydromet,Belarus

InrecentdecadesinBelarusthequestionoftheimpactofweatherconditionsonthedevelopmentofeconomicsectorsandlifeofthepopulationhasbecomeacute.Themaximumdamagetothecountry'seconomyiscausedannuallybyveryintenseheavyrainfalls(67%).

InthisstudyitwasanalyzedthesynopticconditionsandfrequencyofheavyrainfallsinBelarusduringtheperiodof1995-2018.Allcasesofheavyrainfallsweredividedinto3groups:1)veryheavyshowers(theamountofprecipitationnotlessthan30mmforaperiodofnotmorethan1h)–26cases;2)veryheavyrains(notlessthan50mmforaperiodofnotmorethan12h)–309casesand3)prolongedveryheavyrains(notlessthan100mmforaperiodof12-48h)–22cases.

Itwasfoundthatheavyrainfаllsofalltypeswereobservedinthewarmperiodoftheyear–fromMaytoearlyOctober.Themaximumnumberofcasesoccurredinthesummermonths–June-August(315cases),withthelargestnumberinJuly–182cases.

Theaveragenumberofheavyrainfallsduringthewarmperiodoftheyearrangedmainlyfrom3to9cases,withamaximumof12casesin2006.Insomeyears(2008,2012,2014-2015)theirnumberdidn’texceed1-2.

Trendlinesshowedthatthefrequencyofintenserainfallsinthewarmperioddecreased,butitwasapositivedynamicsinJulyduringthestudiedperiod.

Theactivecycloniccirculationorlow-gradientunstablefieldscausedintensiveprecipitationinBelarus.Atnight,theyweremainlyassociatedwiththeinfluenceofthewarmfrontsnearthecenterofsurfacecyclones,and in thedaytime the intensityofprecipitationwasdeterminedby thecold frontswithwavesandsevereconvection.

Thebackwardtrajectories(120h)werecalculatedusingtheHYSPLITmodel.ItwasfoundthattherearetwomainsourcesofairmassesbringingabundantrainfallsinBelarus:theMediterraneanandtheBlackSea.InrearcasesthehumidairmassesaretransportedfromtheAtlanticregion.

Keywords:rainfallsinBelarus,synopticconditions,backwardtrajectories,humidairmasses


C1-P-29

Intensificationofheavyprecipitationeventsincontinental-scaleclimate-changesimulationswithkilometer-scaleresolution

JesusVergara-Temprado,ETH-Zurich,Switzerland

NikolinaBan,RomanBrogli,NikoKröner,DavidLeutwyler,JesusVergara-TempradoChristophSchaer,ETH-Zuric,Switzerland

Climatemodelsandobservationsshowthatheavyprecipitationisintensifyingwithawarmerclimate,and these changes are very often put in the context of theoretical expectations from Clausius-Clapeyron relationwith regard to the (near-) surface temperature.However, the intensificationofheavyprecipitationisverysensitivetotheinvestigatedregionandmodel,andtotheanalysismethod,andthusoftenshowsdeparturesfromClausius-Clapeyronrate.

Hereweemploy ahigh-resolutionmodel at convection resolving resolutionof 2.2 kmover apan-Europeandomain,andanalyzescalingofheavyprecipitationinresponsetowarmingoverdifferentregions.Theincreaseofheavyprecipitationwithnear-surfacetemperatureinmostoftheregionsisaroundClausius-Clapeyronrate,exceptfortheBritishIsleswhereitexceedsthisrateforheavydailyandhourlyprecipitation.Weshowthatthelowertroposphere,whichcontainsthemostofmoisture,warms faster than the surface, especially over oceans. Thus it can contain more moisture thanexpectedfromtheincreaseinsurfacetemperature,andleadstoaboveClausius-Clapeyronincreaseinheavyprecipitation.These results indicate that thechanges in the surfaceprecipitationare largelycontrolledbythechanges inthetemperatureofthe lower-troposphere,andnotbychanges inthe(near-)surfacetemperature.

Keywords:heavyprecipitation,convectionresolvingscale


C1-P-30

CanreanalysisproductswithonlysurfacevariablesassimilatedcaptureMJOcharacteristics?

LuWang,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,China

TheMadden-JulianOscillation(MJO),asadominantmodeoftropicalintraseasonaloscillation,playsan important role in the variability of global weather and climate. However, current state-of-artatmospheric circulation models have difficulty in reproducing observedMJO characteristics whenforcedbyobserveddailyseasurfacetemperaturealone.AnimportantpracticalquestionishowmuchdataamodelneedsinassimilationinordertoreproducerealMJOevents?ByanalyzingERA-20CandNOAA-20CRreanalysisdata,theauthorstriedtofigureoutwhetheramodelcouldreproduceobservedMJOeventsbyassimilatingtheobservedsurfacesignalalone.

The phase propagation and vertical structure associated with MJO were compared between thereanalysis data and observations during 1979-2010. A total skill score considering both temporalcorrelationandspatialstandarddeviationweredefined.TheresultshowedthatbothERA-20CandNOAA-20CRcouldreproducetheobservedMJOcharacteristicsverywell,withtheformersuperiortothelatter,regardlessofMJOintensity.Thus,aminimumrequirementforanoperationalatmosphericmodelforMJOpredictionistheassimilationoftheobservedsurfacesignals.

Keywords:MJO,Reanalysisdata,dataassimilation


C1-P-31

Evaluationoftheeffectsofamultiphysicsensembleonthesimulationofanextremelyhotsummerin2003overtheCORDEX-EA-IIRegion

ShuyuWang,NanjingUniversity,China

ShuyuWang,JianpingTang,LinyunYang,NanjingUniversity,China

The performance of multi-physics ensemble ofWRFmodel is assessed and evaluated for the JJAextremeprecipitationandtemperaturein2003overtheCORDEX-EA-IIdomain.Whilerelativelylargerbiasesofmodelprecipitationandtemperatureareevidentoverthesub-regionswheretheeffectsofmesoscaleprocessesareimportant,thecombinationsofWRFphysicalschemesalsoshowdependencyon geographic location and climate regimes. Comparably, the cumulus andmicrophysical schemeshave substantial influences on the simulation of precipitation, and the land surface models andcumulusschemesplaycrucialrolesinthesurfacetemperature.ThecombinationofNoahforthelandsurfaceprocess, Lin for themicrophysics,G3D for the cumulus parameterization andCAM for theradiationschemecanprovidethemostreliablereproductionofbothprecipitationandtemperatureextremesoverChina.Thewindfieldsatlow-to-middleatmosphericlevels,whichiscloselyconnectedtomodel’sabilitytoreproduceregionalextremes,aresensitivetothemodeltreatmentoflandsurfaceand cumulus convective process, and the impact of the land-atmospheric interaction on regionalextremes can be greatly modulated by convective activity. In conclusion, the model simulatedtemperatureandprecipitationextremesaresensitivitiestothemodelphysicalprocesses,displayedasrelativelylargeensemblespread.

Keywords:regionalextremes,WRFmodel,multi-physicsensembleanalysis


C1-P-32

ThesensitivitytoinitialsoilmoistureforthreeseverecasesofheatwavesoverEasternChina

PinyaWang,NanjingUniversty,China

PinyaWang,JianpingTang,NanjingUniversity,China

UsingWeatherResearchandForecastingmodel(WRF)simulationswithdifferentinitialsoilmoisture(ISM) conditions,we investigate the sensitivity to ISM for the three severe heatwave events thatdominatedeasternChinain2003,2007,and2013.Thecontrolsimulationsareabletoreproducethespatial distributions and the daily evolutions for each of the three heat waves but apparentlyunderestimatetheiramplitudes,intensities,andspatialextensions.ThedecreasedISMcouldcauseanenhancement on heat waves with increased amplitudes, extents and intensities, while it hasinsignificant influence on the spatial distributions and temporal variations. The responses of heatwavesaregenerallydecreasingwiththeincreasingISM,controlledbydifferentregimesinthesurfacesoil moisture-temperature relationship. Through enhanced sensible flux as well as reduced latentcooling,theinitialsoildrynesslocallystrengthensthesurfacewarmingandthefurtherdryingofthesoil.Thethreeheatwaveswerealldominatedbyhigh-pressuresystemsinthemid-troposphere.Thereduced ISM forces positive anomalies of geopotential height at mid-troposphere and negativeanomalies at lower levels, leading to an enhanced thickness of the atmosphere. Such a thickenedatmospherecanstrengthentheanomaloushigh-pressuresystems,favoringthemaintenanceofsevereheatwaves.Thisactsasapositivefeedbackbetweenatmosphericcirculation,surfacewarming,andsoildryness.

Keywords:initialsoilmoisture,heatwaves,WRF,soilmoisture-temperaturerelationship


C1-P-33

Quantifyinganthropogeniccontributiontothe2017earliestsummeronsetinKoreausinglarge-ensembleRCMsimulations

Yeon-HeeKim,PohangUniversityofScienceandTechnology,SouthKorea

Yeon-HeeKim,Seung-KiMin,In-HongPark,DonghyunLee,PohangUniversityofScienceandTechnology,SouthKorea;SarahSparrow,UniversityofOxford,UnitedKingdom;DavidWallom,

UniversityofOxford,UnitedKingdom;DáithíStone,GlobalClimateAdaptationPartnership,UnitedKingdom

DuringMay2017,SouthKoreaexperiencedthehottestrecordedtemperaturesince1973whichwasthe culmination of four consecutive years of record-breaking May temperature. The wamer Maytemperature were observed across South Korea, with the station mean being 1.5°C wamer thanclimatology(1987-2010).ThehottestMaycoincideswiththeearliestsummeronsetabout8dayearlierthan climatology, exerting huge societal impacts for health, economy, and leisure activities. Toexamine the human contribution to the 2017 extremeMay temperature and the earliest summeronset,thisstudyassessesextremeeventsunderrealworldandcounterfactualworldconditionsusinghigh-resolution (50 km) large-ensemble (>1000 members) regional climate model (RCM,weather@home) over CORDEX-East Asia Phase I domain. Results are compared with those fromatmosphericglobalclimatemodel(GCM,CAM5.1)simulationsandCMIP5coupledGCMswithacoarseresolution. The anthropogenic contribution is quantified by using risk ratio (RR)which indicates achange in extreme event probability due to human activities. Both large-ensemble RCMandGCMsimulationsshowthat theprobabilityofoccurrenceof theextremeevents like the2017Maycaseincreasesbytwo-threetimeswhen includinganthropogenic forcing (mainlyduetogreenhousegasincreases).FutheranalysisofdifferencesintheattibutionresultsamongdifferentboundarySSTs(orGCMs) suggests that the inter-model difference is closely related to themodel’s response to theaerosolforcing,supportingpreviousfindings.Ourmulti-modelassessmentbasedonRCMandGCMsimulationsprovidesaconvincingevidencethathumaninfluencehascontributedtothestrongerandearlierspringheatwaveinKoreabybetterconsideringinter-modeluncertainties.

Keywords:RCM,Summeronset,anthropogeniccontribution


C1-P-34

ResponseoftropicalterrestrialgrossprimaryproductiontothesuperElNiñoeventin2015

JiawenZhu,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China

JiawenZhu,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;MinghuaZhang,SchoolofMarineandAtmosphericSciences,StonyBrookUniversity,USA;YaoZhang,Departmentof

EarthandEnvironmentalEngineering,ColumbiaUniversity,USA;XiaodongZeng,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,China;XiangmingXiao,Departmentof

MicrobiologyandPlantBiology,UniversityofOklahoma,USA

TheGrossPrimaryProduction(GPP)intropicalterrestrialecosystemsplaysacriticalroleintheglobalcarboncycleandclimatechange.Thestrong2015–2016ElNiñoeventoffersauniqueopportunitytoinvestigatehowGPPinthetropicalterrestrialecosystemsrespondstoclimaticforcing.ThisstudyusestwoGPPproductsandconcurrentclimatedatatoinvestigatetheGPPanomaliesandtheirunderlyingcauses.WefindthatbothGPPproductsshowanenhancedGPP in2015 for thetropical terrestrialecosystemasawholerelativetothemulti-yearmeanof2001–2015,andthisenhancementisthenetresultofGPPincreaseintropicalforestsanddecreaseinnon-forests.WeshowthattheincreasedGPPintropicalforestsduringtheElNinoeventisconsistentwithincreasedphotosynthesisactiveradiationasaresultofareductioninclouds,whilethedecreasedGPPinnon-forestsisconsistentwithincreasedwaterstressasaresultofareductionofprecipitationandanincreaseoftemperature.Theseresultsreveal the strong coupling of ecosystem and climate that is different in forest and non-forestecosystems,andprovideatestcaseforcarboncycleparameterizationandcarbon-climatefeedbacksimulationinmodels.

Keywords: gross primary production, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, tropical terrestrial ecosystems,lightuseefficiency,extremeevents

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