Pacific Risk Exposure Databases and Models

Phil Glassey, Paolo Bazzurro, Michael Bonte-Grapentin, Chris Chiesa, Olivier Mahul, Edy Brotoisworo, Phil Bright, David Heron, Litea Biukoto, Todd Bosse,Steven Clegg, Bishwa Pandey, Joy Papao, Scott Pontifex, Susan Vocea

World Bank: Catastrophe Risk Financing Initiative – Phase IIADB: Regional Partnerships for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Preparedness

Pacific Disaster Risk Assessment

• Regional Disaster Impact Database• National and Regional Risk Exposure Databases• Earthquake and Cyclone Hazard Models • Country-specific Catastrophe Risk Models

Hazard Assets

Exposure

Affected Assets

Loss $$

Pacific Disaster Risk Assessment• Why?

– Data allows risk modelling/profiling• investigate risk financing options (such as Pacific Disaster

Reserve Fund)• Guide investment in DRR and CCA

– Reduce risk by • avoiding hazardous areas - planning• avoiding vulnerable designs – building permitting and monitoring

– Reduce losses by • being prepared• responding quickly and appropriately

• Fifteen countries considered

• Exposure: residential, commercial, industrial, public assets, main infrastructure, major crops, population

• Perils: Earthquakes (shaking + tsunami) and Tropical Cyclones (wind, surge, and rain)

Project Coverage

Cook Islands Fiji Papua New

Guinea (PNG) Samoa Solomon Islands Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu

Niue Nauru Federated

States of Micronesia

Marshall Islands

Palau Kiribati Timor Leste

Historical Earthquakes 1900-2009

Solomon Islands

Vanuatu

Samoa

Timor Leste

Federated States of Micronesia

Republic of Marshall Islands

NauruKiribati

Tuvalu

Niue

TongaCook

Islands

Palau

M8.1 4/1/2007 Solomon Islands

54 fatalities 7,000 homeless $3.0MM in aid

M8.1 9/29/2009 Samoa and Tonga

192 fatalities 3,000 homeless $3.5MM in aid

Historical Tropical Cyclones 1948-2009

Equator

Solomon Islands

Vanuatu

Samoa

Timor Leste

Federated States of Micronesia

Republic of Marshall Islands

NauruKiribati

Tuvalu

Niue

TongaCook

Islands

Palau

Papua New

Guinea

Fiji

Number Of Events

Earthquake Tropical Cyclone Tsunami

Severe Local Storm

Flood Storm Surge Landslide Total

Cook Islands 0 29 2 0 1 0 0 32Federated States of

Micronesia 0 12 0 0 0 0 1 13

Fiji 11 62 1 1 15 0 2 92Kiribati 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1

Marshall Islands 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 5Nauru 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Niue 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 6Palau 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 4

Papua New Guinea 71 5 3 2 28 0 11 120Samoa 7 11 1 2 2 1 0 24

Solomon Islands 22 23 0 0 2 1 1 49Timor Leste 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2

Tonga 7 24 0 1 0 0 0 32Tuvalu 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 8

Vanuatu 21 35 0 2 1 0 1 60Total 139 224 7 8 51 3 16 448

SourceEvents

Referenced

EM-DAT Catalog 27%

NGDC’s Significant Earthquake Database 18%

Munich Re NatCatSERVICE Database 31%

AusAID Database 21%

Pacific Disaster Net Database 34%

Note: More than 20 sources looked at; some events have data from multiple sources

Major Sources

Reported Data

Building footprint capture

• Building footprints captured from VHR satellite imagery

• Field checked when doing building field surveys

Summary Building Footprints

~ 340,000 buildings

Attributes based on local knowledge

Summary Asset Survey

Largest and most comprehensive dataset for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation ever collected within the Pacific Islands

Country Buildings in survey areas

Features surveyed

% No Buildings Pacific Cities

Cook Islands 8,282 5,886 71

Fiji 56,734 19,533 34 9,181

FSM - Yap 2,244 648 29

Kiribati 9253 999 9

Papua New Guinea 68,642 13,976 20

Palau 5,575 1,315 24

Samoa 19,269 7,197 37 3,897

Solomon Islands 27,119 15,736 58 1,800

Tonga 19,960 10,262 51 2,754

Tuvalu 623 996 160

Vanuatu 23,184 15,675 68 4,803

TOTAL 231,633 92,223 40 22,435

In-country SurveysThe survey involves:• Data preparation and develop mapping projects in advance• Initial consultation with stakeholders• Training of counterpart staff • Field campaigns to collect building and infrastructure data, as

well as field check the digitising of building footprints • Determining other available data, negotiating data access and

obtaining data.• Determining status of existing Mapserver infrastructure and

systems.• A debrief meeting with stakeholders to present the results of

the surveys and discuss data use, maintenance and sharing.

Training and Reference Material

Field Data Collection• Collect new information

• Utilise pre-prepared menus, hand held devices, satellite imagery and other digital maps and local counterparts

Buildings• Location represented as

footprint and point

• Attributes captured to characterize building in terms of use and construction

• Used to estimate “Fragility” of buildings when exposed to

–earthquake shaking–tsunami–cyclonic wind–other hazards

Transportation

• Roads and bridges

• Airports, Wharves

Utilities• Electricity• Water• Communications

Other data• Topography/Bathymetry

• Contours and hydrology• Key for storm surge, tsunami, and

cyclonic winds

• Geology and soils• Key for earthquake shaking

• Census Data• Attributes can be extrapolated using

similar building type collected by field work

• Used to estimate casualties, human displacement etc

Cook Is – GIS Data, Rarotonga

FSM – Yap State

Major changes to building stock due to Typhoon Suudal

Solomon Is. – GIS Data, Honiara

Apia

Vanuatu – GIS Data, Port Vila

Madang

Coastal Hazard Areas

What else can this data be used for?

Damage assessments– Data can be used to assign and calculate damage to

buildings already located and characterised in terms of construction

– Handheld computers with “damage” menu pages can provide quick and consistent damage reports

Map Viewer

QA/QCReport

Tool

Web enabled

Can be used as a building report

Data Collection IssuesData Collection Issues• Natural hazards:

– Cyclone Pat, Aitutaki Cook Islands, – Cyclone Ulia Solomon Islands,– 3 erupting volcanoes in Vanuatu,

• Other hazards– Ill health/disease– Dogs – 5 dog bites in all, 3 in Samoa

• Inconsistent assistance from local counterparts

• Reluctance of Gov’t departments to give access to data

• Poor georeferenced imagery/lack of control points

• Vehicle difficulties – poor roads

• Communication problems

• Suspicious people

Challenges - Sustainability

• Capacity development within countries to sustain and apply products (‘not another data collection exercise’)

• Data sharing amongst agencies• Development of tools and products to meet

country needs • Bridge the gap from Science to Policy –

products need to assist development planners and DRM/CCA policy makers