transportation safety databases - accident records and exposure data special library association...
TRANSCRIPT
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Transportation Safety Databases - Accident
Records and Exposure Data
Special Library Association
presentation June 9, 2003
Deborah Bruce, Ph.D.Safety Studies and Statistical Analysis Division
National Transportation Safety [email protected]
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Federal Transportation Databases
ScopeAccident, Incident, Activity, CommodityDegree of injury, Property damage,Quantity of released substanceType of occurrence
Modal DifferencesAviation, Highway, Pipeline, Railroad, Marine, Intermodal
Analytic PurposeNeed to normalize for comparisons
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The Purpose of Accident and Injury Data
• Determine the severity of an event
• Provide a basis for prevention / mitigation strategies
• Aid in calculating “cost” of transportation accidents
• Basis for setting priorities and resource allocation
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Haddon Matrix
Phase of EventPrecrash, Crash, Postcrash
Risk FactorsHuman, Vehicle, Physical EnvironmentSocioeconomic Environment
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Safety ReportTransportation Safety
DatabasesNTSB/SR-02/02
All modes represented, 18 Accident and Incident databases that represented the
most frequently used by NTSB (Listed in handout)
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Database Review
• Representativeness
• Accuracy
• Timeliness
• Completeness
• Intermodal Compatibility
• Budget and Staff
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User Interviews• Air Transport Association, Regional Airline Association,
Allied Pilots Association, Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, Flight Safety Foundation, Briling and Associates, AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, American Trucking Association, Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
• Gas Research Institute, American Petroleum Institute, Association of Oil Pipelines
• Association of American Railroads, American Short Line Railroad Association, Union Pacific, Burlington Northern, CSX
• NASBLA, National Safe Boating Council
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Lifecycle of a Database
• Development – Needs Assessment and Design
• Operation – Data Collection, Data Entry, Data Auditing, Data Analysis, Output
• Evaluation – External Feedback, Internal Feedback
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Aviation Accident Data
a closer look at aviation accident events
and how we measureexposure to risk
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History of NTSB Aviation Accident Data
• Accident data starting in 1962 for airlines and 1964 for GA, commuters and air-taxi
• 1982-1984: Expanded data collection to include longer narrative, more detailed sequence of events, supplemental forms
• 2000: Transition to fully relational SQL Server database – Accident Data Management System (ADMS). Includes all accident data between 1982 – present
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ADMS System
• Approximately 40,000 accidents and incidents from 1982 – present
• Each record can contains up to 650 data elements relating to personnel, aircraft and environment
• Data types include Alphanumeric code (e.g., engine type, sequence of events codes); Dates/Times (e.g., event date); Integers (e.g., altitude, runway length); Text (e.g., operator name, narrative); Multiple Response (e.g., crew certification)
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What is an Aviation Accident?
An Accident is an occurrence with the operation of an aircraft which:• takes place between the time any person boards the aircraft with the intention of flight until all such persons have disembarked, AND• any person suffers death or serious injury, OR• the aircraft receives substantial damage (49 CFR 830)
Substantial Damage adversely affects the structural strength, performance, or flight characteristics of the aircraft ANDWould normally require major repair or replacement of the affected component.
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What is an Injury?
• Fatal Injury results in death within 30 days of an accident
• Serious Injury- requires hospitalization for more than 48 hours, commencing within 7 days- results in a fracture of any bone- causes severe hemorrhages, nerve,
muscle, or tendon damage- involves any internal organ- involves 2nd or 3rd degree burns or
burns affecting >5% of the body
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What types of Aircraft Operations are Included?
• Part 121 Commercial Air Carriers (scheduled and nonscheduled)
• Part 135 Scheduled Operations• Part 135 Nonscheduled Air Taxis• Part 91 General Aviation• Public Use Operations• Part 103 Ultralights• Part 129 Foreign Air Carriers• Part 137 Agricultural Operations• Part 133 Rotorcraft External Load
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What is General Aviation?
NOT Part 121 Scheduled Air CarriersPart 121 Non-scheduled CargoPart 135 Scheduled CommutersPart 135 Non-scheduled Air TaxiNUSC Non-US Scheduled Commercial
IS US Registered (N # aircraft)Part 137 Aerial ApplicationsPart 91 General Operating Flt RulesPUBU Public Use OperationsOther Work UseStolen, suicides, sabotage, etc
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Which Aircraft are not in the NTSB Accident Database?
• Military aircraft (unless the accident also involves civil aircraft)
• Foreign-registered aircraft
• Certain public use (government) aircraft (as defined in 49 CFR, Part 830.5)
• Ultralights (powered aircraft weighing less than 254 lbs.)
• Commercial space launches
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How many Aviation Accidents are in the NTSB Database?
1962-1981 contains 87,048 records1982-2002 contains 50,184 records
Database available in Accessftp://www.ntsb.gov/avdata
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How many accidents per year?
• Part 121 accidents average than 41/yr
• Part 121 scheduled avg 36/yr
• Part 121 nonscheduled avg 5/yr
• Part 135 scheduled avg 11/yr
• Part 135 nonscheduled avg 76/yr
• General Aviation avg 1,898/yr
• Totals around 2000 accidents per year
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How Can I Get Accident Data?
• Aviation accident statistics from the webwww.ntsb.gov
• Investigations and Safety Studies
• Annual Review publications
• Full database is available on our web site ftp://www.ntsb.gov/avdata
• Accident queries via web site
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Accident Statistics
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NTSB Publications
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NTSB Aviation Publicationswww.ntsb.gov
Annual Aviation Accident Reviews (Commercial Air Carrier and General Aviation) 1998 and 1999 Air Carrier and 1998 GA completed 1999 Air Carrier and 1999 GA are being prepared for publication, 2000 Air Carrier in progress
Safety StudiesTransportation Safety Databases, Public Aircraft Safety, Survivability, Aircraft Evacuations, ATC Equipment Outages, Safety in Alaska, Safety of Air Tour Industry, Commuter Airline Safety, Wake Vortex Safety Issues, Flightcrew-Involved Accidents 1978-1990
Accident Investigation Reports
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Accident Reports
Includes:
History of Flight, Injury information, Damage to Aircraft, Pertinent personnel information, Aircraft Information, Meteorological information, Aids to navigation, Communication, Aerodrome information, Flight information, Wreckage or impact information, Medical or pathological information, Fire, Survival or forensic aspects, Tests and research, Organizational and management information, Effective investigative techniques
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Annual Reviews
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NTSB Website Query Tool• Best for simple queries to find a set of
accidents with a common basic feature, no aggregation
• Allows access to narrative descriptions and limited data for 1962-1981 accidents
• Results in report status, narrative, probable cause, contributing factors, and basic accident data
• Requires internet connectionhttp://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/query.asp#query_start
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Accident database query via web
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NTSB Website Query Tool
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Downloadable datasets from NTSB FTP site
• Best for more complex queries requiring fields not available using Website Query Tool
• Allows highly customized searches
• Allows data aggregation/analysis
• Requires internet connection and 1995 or later version of MSAccess
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• Avdata DIR contains a readme file,
• A diagram of the relational database (admspub.pdf),
• The coding manual (codman.pdf),
• A copy of the SQL database structure,
• A subdirectory of .mdb databases (years 1982-2003),
• Weekly updates for current data
• Within each access database (as a table), there is a Data dictionary and translation tables
ftp://www.ntsb.gov/avdata
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Accident Investigation Process - How is the Accident Database
developed?• Accident data input from accident safety
investigator via distributed data collection software
• Preliminary accident record appears within 5-10 days
• Factual data entered in about 6 months• Final report with probable cause 12-18
months following the accident
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Aviation Safety Investigator’s Data Entry Process
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Types of Investigations
• Majors
• Field
• Limited
• Foreign
• What does the accident number tell us?
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NTSB Number DecoderATL02LA084
• 3-letter code: Office Identifier, ATL = Southeast regional office in Atlanta
• 2-digit fiscal year, 02 = 2002• 1-letter type of investigation code, L = Limited• 1-letter transportation mode code, A = Aviation• 3-digit sequential numbering, 084 = 84th accident
in 2002 for that regional office
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Products of Investigations
• Final Accident Report
• Docket records
• ADMS Database records
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What, When, and Why of Accidents
• WHAT – “Occurrences”
• WHEN – “Phase of Flight”
• WHY – “Sequence of Events”
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What’s the meaning of an Accident Rate Calculationsand how do we quantify risk
NTSB Accident Counts____________________
FAA Activity Measures
EVENTS ________
EXPOSURE
=
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Aviation Accident Rates by Sector (per 100,000 Flight Hours)
0
2
4
6
8
GeneralAviation
PublicAircraft
Air Taxi ScheduledPart 135
ScheduledPart 121
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GA Accidents, Flight Hours
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Acc
iden
ts
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
Flig
ht
Ho
urs
Flight Hours Nonfatal Fatal
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Estimated GA Flight Hours by Category (in Millions)
0
6
12
18
24
30
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
SE Piston Other FixedRotorcraft Experimental
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Aviation Flight Hours by Type(in Hundred-Thousands)
0
100
200
300
400
GA Schd 121 Schd 135 Nsch 135
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0
10
20
30
4019
82
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Original
Revised
Revision of FAA Air Revision of FAA Air Taxi Flight Hour EstimatesTaxi Flight Hour Estimates
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Total Aircraft Occupants and Injury Totals
0
2000
4000
6000
80001
98
3
198
5
198
7
198
9
199
1
199
3
199
5
199
7
199
9
200
1
Total Occupants
Minor Injuries
Serious Injuries
Fatal Injuries
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GA Aircraft Shipped
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
50001
98
2
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
SE-Piston ME-Piston
Turboprop Turbojet
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Estimated Active GA Aircraft
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
SE-Piston Other Fixed WingRotorcraft Experimental
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Highest Certificate for Accident Involved GA Pilots
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
AirlineTransport
Commercial Private Student
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DATA STUDYSurvivability of Accidents Involving Part 121 U.S. Air
Carrier Operations,
1983-2000
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Occupant Survival for All Part 121 Accidents
Survivors96%
Fatalities4%
(51,207)
(2,280)
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Survivable Accidents
• Forces transmitted to occupants through their seat and restraint systems cannot exceed the limits of human tolerance for abrupt accelerations
• Structure in the occupants’ immediate environment must remain substantially intact to the extent that a livable volume is provided throughout the crash
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Occupant Survivalfor Survivable Part 121 Accidents
Impact15%
Other1%
Survivors77%
Fire7%
(1,523)
(28)
(306)
(131)
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Report Definition of a Serious Accident
• At least one serious injury or fatality
• Substantial damage or completedestruction of an aircraft
• Fire (Pre-crash or Post-crash)
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Occupant Survival for Serious Part 121 Accidents
Impact26%
Other1%
Unknown 12%
Survivors56%
Fire5%
(1,524)
(131)
(716)
(340)
(28)
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• 96 percent survive all accidents
• 56 percent survive serious accidents
• 77 percent survive serious-survivable accidents
Conclusions
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Data Sources Related to Accidents
NTSB Data RecommendationNTSB Docket System of RecordsOther Sources of Related Safety Data
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NTSB Safety Recommendations
16% 10%
19%
16%37%2%
Since 1967 Total Recs Issued = 12,026
Total Aviation Recs 4,419Currently 342 Open
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NTSB Public Docket
• Archive of materials pertinent to an accident/incident
• History: Microfiche, Mainframe based, Docket Management System (DMS)
• Public Access– Public Reference Room at NTSB HQ– Online Request Form
(http://www.ntsb.gov/pubmail/pubmail.asp)– Contractor: General Microfilm 301-929-8888
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Items in the NTSB Public Docket
• Preliminary report
• Hearing documents
• IIC factual reports
• Group chair factual reports
• Studies by board staff
• Board reports
• Supporting Material
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NTSB Public Docket
• Supporting Materials may include– Pilot/operator aircraft report– Witness statements or records of
interviews– Maps/charts– Excerpts from manuals– Weather reports– Transcripts of radio communications– Statement of party representatives
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NTSB Public Docket
• Supporting Materials may include– Reports from other federal agencies– Reports from state or local agencies– Submissions or correspondence from
parties to the investigations– Flight Data Recorder (FDR) data– Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) transcript– Release of wreckage form– Toxicology reports
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NTSB Public Docket
• Supporting Materials may include– Transcripts from hearings/depositions– Petitions for reconsideration– Related safety recommendations and/or
safety studies– Drawings (e.g., engineering sketches)– Photographs pertinent to the accident– Data files– Other materials (flight plans, fueling
records, load manifests, etc.)
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NTSB Public Docket
• Supporting Materials may include– Reports from other federal agencies– Reports from state or local agencies– Submissions or correspondence from
parties to the investigations– Flight Data Recorder (FDR) data– Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) transcript– Release of wreckage form– Toxicology reports
![Page 61: Transportation Safety Databases - Accident Records and Exposure Data Special Library Association presentation June 9, 2003 Deborah Bruce, Ph.D. Safety](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062618/5514eb9b550346b0478b5c46/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
What is NOT on the NTSB Public Docket
• Autopsy reports or photos
• Proprietary, confidential or “trade secret” items
• Contracts or dollar amounts that are irrelevant to understanding the event
• Privacy-protected material: names, addresses, SSN, etc
• Preliminary documents/notes
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Aviation Safety Data Sources Other than NTSB
FAA NASDAC (www.nasdac.faa.gov) AirClaims CASE2ICAO ADREP 2000 (www.icao.int)FAA CAMI BTS Activity Data (www.bts.gov)
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National Aviation Safety Data Analysis Center
NASDAC provides the public with access to several of the principal aviation safety dataand information sources the Federal Government uses for various purposes. • FAA Air Registry• Aviation Safety Reporting System• BTS Airline Traffic and Capacity• FAA Accident / Incident Data System• Near Midair Collision System• NTSB Safety Recommendations w/ FAA Responses• NTSB Aviation Accident Database• World Aircraft Accident Summary
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AirClaims – CASE2
• Airclaims – 2 major insurance agencies do claims adjustment for 40% of airline accidents
• Client Aviation System Enquiry (CASE) software and subscription service
• Worldwide accident/loss information– Records back to 1948– Full histories of approx 80K aircraft,
including transfers, hours, cycles, weight, seating, etc.
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ICAO Reportingfor ADREP 2000 System
www.icao.int
• Intern’l Accident Data is collected by ICAO• ICAO’s Accident Investigation and Prevention (AIG) Section maintains ADREP 2000• Member Countries Report based on Annex 13• Reporting Criteria = max wt over 2,250 kg• Bimonthly ADREP Summary of Accident and Incident Reports
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FAA Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI)
CAMI Library has Online CatalogBooksTech ReportsArchived & Historical DocumentsCataloged Websites
CAMI provides NTSB with toxicological results and maintains a confidential tox databaseAviation Statistical Handbook
Near Midair Collisions, Operational Errors,Pilot Deviations, Vehicle/PedestrianDeviations, Surface Incident Data,Flight Assists, Accident Data
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Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Airline Activity Data
Scheduled Part 121 Operators report monthlyUsing Form 41, T100 and T-1000f forms
Scheduled Part 135 Operators reportQuarterly using Form 298-C