pacific review - a harmonized southeast asia-explanatory typologies of asean countries' strategies...
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A Harmonized Southeast Asia? Explanatory Typologies of
ASEAN Countries Strategies to the Rise of China
Journal: The Pacific Review
Manuscript ID: RPRE-2011-0112
Manuscript Type: Original Article
Keywords: Southeast Asia, China, Explanatory Typology, Hedging, Bandwagoning,
Balancing
URL: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/rpre Email: [email protected]
The Pacific Review
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For Peer Review OnlyA Harmonized Southeast Asia?
Explanatory Typologies of ASEAN Countries Strategies to the Rise of China
August 26, 2011
Abstract
In the face of a rising China, some scholars have argued that ASEAN countries will
choose to either bandwagon with or balance against China, while others believe they
will respond with a more moderate policy known as hedging. In considering these
options, ASEAN countries must take into account their individual interests within the
economic and security structure of this region. In this research, we argue that each
ASEAN country confronts divergent sets of security and economic relations with
China, which play a major role in shaping their policy responses. We can characterize
their responses into four quadrants. Each cell can be categorized in terms of a high or
low degree of threat perception (HT or LT) from China, as well as a positive or
negative economic expectation (PE or NE) with China. We thus hypothesize that
ASEAN countries in the HT-NE situation will balance against China; those in the
LT-PE situation will bandwagon with China; those in the HT-PE or LT-NE situations
will hedge against China. Hypotheses will be tested by investigating two cases,
Vietnam-China (NE-HT) and Cambodia-China (PE-LT) relations.
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Introduction
The end of the Cold War and the rise of China have changed the international
landscape. For East Asian countries, fear from the threat from communist ideology
has largely dissipated to the extent that communism is no longer the primary concern
around which policymaking decisions are made. International geopolitics, once
defined by the clash of competing superpowers during the Cold War, has changed, and
the need to rely on building security alliance with the U.S. for geopolitical survival
has more or less abated. In the present situation, however, the rise of China regionally
and globally presents a new, dynamic, and potentially volatile variable in the East
Asian geopolitical arena. For relatively weaker East Asian nations, the question of
how best to avoid an outright conflict within a changing regional power structure has
become an important issue.
In this article, we discuss how Southeast Asian states will respond to a rising
China, whose ascendance may be viewed both as a promising opportunity and a
potential danger. Despite a litany of literature published on this topic, many are
plagued with shortcomings we identify as being less relevant, overgeneralized,
static and outdated. These works generally suffer two drawbacks. First, though
they pertinently describe patterns of foreign policy behaviors, many fail to identify the
causes behind such behaviors. This obscures the different independent variables that
may cause Southeast Asian countries to adopt different policy options toward China.
The second shortcoming in the existing literature stems from the treatment of
policymaking as a dichotomy rather than a continuum. In this framework, Southeast
Asian states are portrayed as pursuing a static strategy instead of a dynamic one that
constantly evolves in a changing regional landscape. We believe Southeast Asian
states policies toward China are dynamic, varying among countries and across
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different periods of time.
In this paper, we introduce an analytical spectrum that characterizes how
Southeast Asian countries are likely to perceive China based on the interaction of two
theories: balance of threat and trade expectation. We argue that these perceptions
will influence the types of policies that these countries will employ against China,
which include soft-balancing, hedging, and bandwagoning. As political
climates and situations fluctuate over time, so will the strategies used by different
players. We hypothesize that Southeast Asian countries perceiving a high level of
threat from China (HT) and expecting a negative economic relationship (NE) will
view Beijing as an undesirable regional neighbor, and therefore more likely to choose
the soft-balancing strategy. On the other hand, if these countries perceive a low level
of threat (LT) and expect a positive economic relationship (PE), they will find in
Beijing a more desirable neighbor, and are more likely to adopt a bandwagoning
strategy. Countries in situations between these two extremes (either a HT-PE or
LT-NE scenario) will choose a hedging strategy against China.
We will review past literatures on this topic and point out their shortcomings in
the next section. In section three, two major pillars for Southeast Asian states policies
toward China and relevant strategic choices are identified within a policy spectrum. In
addition, we will discuss the logic behind the analytical model. In section four, we
offer preliminary empirical evidence to support our theoretical framework by
discussing cases of Vietnam-China and Cambodia-China relations. The last section
concludes our studies.
Literature Review
Most literature on the reactions of Southeast Asian states to the rise of China can
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be divided into four categories. The first category tends to group Southeast Asian
countries as a unitary international actor embedded within the framework of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and explains the individual
countries behaviors through the lens of observing the actions undertaken by ASEAN.
The second category examines Southeast Asian countries foreign policymaking as a
response to regional power structures; in this case, these countries are considered as
belonging to a group of secondary, or weaker, states within the international
system.1 These two categories seek to depict a general pattern that reflects interests
concentrated within either ASEAN or a group of secondary states.
The literature in the last two categories pay attention to foreign policy variations
among the different Southeast Asian countries, and refrain from treating Southeast
Asian countries as part of a larger, unitary international actor. The third category
discusses a range of policy choices that include strategies such as balancing,
accommodating, bandwagoning, or hedging. Such approach may overlook the
variation of policy choices among different countries.2 The fourth category also
1 M. Rajendran, Asean's Foreign Relations: The Shift to Collective Action (Kuala Lumpur: Arenabuku
sdn bhd., 1985). N. Ganesan, "Rethinking Asean as a Security Community in Southeast Asia," Asian
Affairs, an American Review 21, no. 4 (1995). Johan Saravanamuttu, "The Asean Model for Regional
Cooperation," in Asian Peace: Security and Governance in the Asia Pacific Region, ed. Majid
Tehranian (London: I.B. Tauris Publishers, 1999). Amitav Acharya and Evelyn Goh, Reassessing
Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific: Competition, Congruence, and Transformation
(Massachusetts: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 2007). H.H. Michael Hsiao and
Alan Yang, "Transformations of Chinas Soft Power toward Asean," China Brief 8, no. 22 (2008).
Rodolfo C. Severino, The Asean Regional Forum (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies,
2009).
2 For example, Landry Haryo Subianto, "New Direction for Southeast Asia's Regional Relations: An
Indonesian Perspective," in Southeast Asia in the New Century: An Asian Perspective, ed. Samuel C.Y.
Ku (Kaohsiung: National Sun Yat-Sen University, 2002). Vatthana Pholsena and Ruth Banomyong,
Laos: From Buffer State to Crossroads (Ching Mai: Meking Press, 2006). Robert Dayley and Clark D.
Neher, Southeast Asia in the New International Era (Singapore: Westview Press, 2010).
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recognizes the foreign policy variation among each Southeast Asian country, but pays
attention to the influence of different domestic factors, such as ideology, leadership, or
regime type, in foreign policymaking.3
In this section, we discuss these divergent perspectives and identify their
limitations. Afterwards, we briefly propose our idea to mitigate these identified
shortcomings and offer a theoretical framework based on a foreign policy continuum
characterized by two relevant conditions, which are threat perception and
expectation of economic relations.
ASEAN for Socializing China?
The first category of literature focuses primarily on how the regional institution
of ASEAN influences Chinas external behaviors, and how Southeast Asian countries
respond. Amitav Acharya suggests that a process-orientated ASEAN has successfully
created four crucial ideas in the region, which are cooperative security, open
regionalism, soft regionalism, and flexible consensus.4 These ideas can be
helpful in shaping a regional identity for its actors to abide by. Nikolas Busse praises
ASEAN members for abandoning the balance of power logic and successfully
establishing a regional code of conduct centered around the concepts of non-use of
force, non-interference, and informality in conflict management.5 China, as a
more proactive participant in ASEAN, consequently is expected to be socialized in
3 Recent literatures related, for example, Anak Agung Banyu Perwita, Indonesia and the Muslin World:
Islam and Secularism in the Foreign Policy of Soeharto and Beyond (Copenhagen: NIAS Press, 2007).
Pavin Chachavalpongpun, Reinventing Thailand: Thaksin and His Foreign Policy (Singapore and
Thailand: ISEAS and Silkworm Books, 2010).
4 Amitav Acharya, "Ideas, Identity, and Institution-Building: From the 'Asean Way' to the 'Asia-Pacific
Way'?," The Pacific Review 10, no. 3 (1997).
5 Nikolas Busse, "Constructivism and Southeast Asian Security," The Pacific Review 12, no. 1 (1999).
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informal principles desired by Southeast Asian countries. In Alice Bas words, China
...has moved from skeptic to observer to participant as a dialogue partner with
ASEAN and full membership in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and other
regional arrangements.6 According to Rosemary Foot, the ARFs central purpose is
to manage transnational conflicts between Southeast Asia and China and envelop
China in this multilateral organization.7 According to these scholars, the utilization
of regional organizations remains the primary way in which Southeast Asian attempt
to engage and socialize China. In doing so, Southeast Asian countries can seek to
secure a mutually beneficial economic relationship and attempt to tame Chinas
aggressive posture in the South China Sea. From Chinas perspective, regional
organizations serve to reassure ASEAN states of Beijings peaceful regional ambitions
and win over their support, possibly at the expanse of U.S.-ASEAN relations.
Over the past decade, although China has become a proactive player in regional
institutions, some scholars have doubted the effectiveness of attempting to socialize
China according to the desires of ASEAN members. Ba wonders whether regional
institutions founded by less powerful states are able to socialize the most powerful
regional player. Her argument suggests a need to include the variable of power in the
study of Sino-ASEAN relations. Raising the question whos socializing whom?, she
points out the possibility of ASEAN members being socialized by China, rather than
the other way around.8
David Jones and Martin Smith argue that although ARF has helped to avoid
6 Alice D. Ba, "China and Asean: Renavigating Relations for a 21st-Century Asia," Asian Survey 43,
no. 4 (2003).
7 Rosemary Foot, "China in the Asean Regional Forum: Organizational Processes and Domestic
Modes of Thought," Asian Survey 38, no. 5 (1998).
8 Alice D. Ba, "Who's Socializing Whom? Complex Engagement in Sino-Asean Relations," The
Pacific Review 19, no. 2 (2006).
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large-scale conflicts between China and other sovereign claimants to possessions in
the South China Sea, it has merely managed the problem, but not solved them. They
suggest that prolonging the dispute plays into Chinas hegemonic ambition of
returning the region to the historical tributary system where Southeast Asian countries
would obey Chinas mandate of heaven.9 To them, norms in ASEAN and other
regional institutions are merely ineffective rhetoric in the larger game of regional
diplomacy, which in reality is always dominated by power politics. ASEAN,
according to their perspective, is merely a platform for great powers to pursue their
interests. In March 2010, Chinese officials, bypassing regional institutions,
unilaterally told Washington that the South China Sea is its "core interest, which
raised alarm bells throughout Southeast Asia.10 This incident suggests that regional
frameworks have failed to socialize China into a desirable player and tame Chinas
aggressive postures in the region. Using ASEAN as a central factor in understanding
Southeast Asian countries reactions toward the rise of China might not be a relevant
approach since it not only fails to recognize regional power as an important factor in
foreign policy, but also neglects possible policy variation, determined by different
political and economic conditions, within each Southeast Asian country.
A Group of Secondary States?
Similar to Jones and Smiths argument that regional institutions are
epiphenomenal to great power politics, other experts suggest that Southeast Asia is
9 David Martin Jones and Michael L.R. Smith, "Making Process, Not Progress: Asean and the
Evolving East Asian Regional Order," International Security 32, no. 1 (2007).
10 Wu Zhong, "A Daring Departure from Deng," Asia Times Online, August 6, 2010 2010.
.
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composed of ten secondary states sensitive to the variation of power structure,
rather than regional norms. The balance of power between the countries in the region
is the most critical factor in determining their foreign policies. In discussing the
responses of East Asian secondary states toward China, Robert Ross argues that South
Korea and Taiwan have increasingly developed an accommodating posture towards
China, while Japan and ASEAN states are joining with the U.S. to balance against it.11
But balancing is a strategy usually employed by great powers, i.e. China, India, Japan,
and the United States. David Kang sees Asias order as a hierarchical one where
China acts a dominant power and the surrounding countries are secondary states.
Kang argues that in the face of a powerful China, these secondary states have no
choice but to strive for friendly bilateral relations with Beijing, and such a hierarchical
order will be stable and peaceful.12
While these arguments suggest that secondary states will accommodate Chinas
interests, other scholars contend otherwise. In discussing the foreign policy options of
weaker states, Eric Labs observes that balancing against a powerful country is a far
more common behavior than accommodation, or also known as bandwagoning.
Instead of bandwagoning for hedging their bets, weak states fight by balancing
against a rising power.13 Aaron Friedberg similarly expects ASEAN states to
internally balance themselves against Chinas growing capability.14 Furthermore,
Gerald Segal suggests that judging from East Asias recent history, although China
seems to be an unrivaled player, concerted containment by other regional players is
11 Robert S. Ross, "Balance of Power Politics and the Rise of China: Accommodation and Balancing in
East Asia," Security Studies 15, no. 3 (2006): 379-91.
12 David C. Kang, "Getting Asia Wrong: The Need for New Analytical Frameworks," International
Security 27, no. 4 (2003).
13 Eric J. Labs, "Do Weak States Bandwagon?," Security Studies 1, no. 3 (1992).
14 Aaron L. Friedberg, "Ripe for Rivalry: Prospects for Peace in a Multipolar Asia," International
Security 18, no. 3 (1993/1994): 29-33.
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capable of moderating Chinas aggression.15
In light of the larger debates within the realist school of international relations
theory regarding whether weaker states are likely to bandwagon with the most
powerful state or join together to balance against it, scholars disagree on how
secondary states in Southeast Asia will respond to a rising China. These conflicting
opinions also highlight what we call the problem of relevance, in that the traditional
understanding of balancing and bandwagoning, which focus on formal military
alliances involving alliances and arms buildups, is now no longer as applicable as it
was before.16 Relying on old notions of international relations theory from the Cold
War era may lead one to incorrectly assess the complexities of contemporary
Southeast Asian affairs. Such an approach also downplays the domestic policy
variations among states and run the risk of overgeneralization.
Balancing, Bandwagoning, Hedging or Others
Over the past decade, many studies have attempted to redress the issues of
relevance and overgeneralization by refraining from both treating Southeast Asian
countries as a unitary actor and confining their assessment of their China policies to
the limited options of balancing or bandwagoning. Denny Roy argues that most
Southeast Asian countries neither balance against nor bandwagon with China. Rather,
their strategies can best be understood as hedging with different levels. Hedging, in
his understanding, is a policy that seeks positive relations with all great powers in the
regionsin this case, China and the U.S. In Roys words, Southeast Asian states
15 Gerald Segal, "East Asia and The "Constrainment" Of China," in East Asian Security, ed. Michael E.
Brown, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven E. Miller (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1998).
16 T.V. Paul, "Soft Balancing in the Age of U.S. Primacy," International Security 30, no. 1 (2005).
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prefer not to antagonize any of the external great powers unless one poses a direct
threat to a vital interest.17 For example, seeking modest level of defense cooperation
with Washington can serve as a hedge against a rising China.
Barry Eichengreen, Yeongseop Rhee, and Hui Tong investigated the economic
implications of Chinas growth to Asian countries, and found that whereas
high-income neighbors, such as Singapore, can enjoy economic benefits, low-income
countries, such as Vietnam, may be affected negatively.18 John Wong and Sarah Chan
also notice that Sino-ASEAN economic relationships are both competitive and
complementary. While Singapore and China can benefit from each other by
specializing in different sectors and industries, most developing countries in Southeast
Asia are competing for foreign direct investment (FDI) in the same sectors and
exporting products for similar markets.19 As such, the unique economic conditions in
each Southeast Asian country can affect their perception of China in very different
ways. Discussing Southeast Asias views on the rise of China, Evelyn Goh suggests
that it is useful to divide Southeast Asian countries into maritime and continental ones,
which the former are more reassured by wider geographical distance between them
and China, i.e. the stopping power of water, while the latter are more anxious of their
powerful continental neighbor.20 This would result in different perceptions of threat,
characterizing states with different geographical features and strategies to engage
17 Denny Roy, "Southeast Asia and China: Balancing or Bandwagoning?," Contemporary Southeast
Asia 27, no. 2 (2005): 311-12.
18 Barry Eichengreen, Yeongseop Rhee, and Hui Tong, "China and the Exports of Other Asian
Countries," Review of World Economics 143, no. 2 (2007).
19 John Wong and Sarah Chan, "China-Asean Free Trade Agreement: Shaping Future Economic
Relations," Asian Survey 43, no. 3 (2003).
20 In Gohs classification, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore belong to the maritime
group; Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam and Thailand belong to the continental group. Evelyn Goh,
"Southeast Asian Perspectives on the China Challenge," Journal of Strategic Studies 30, no. 4-5 (2007):
823-28.
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Beijing.
Although scholars have paid attention to the policy variations between states,
policy options are often treated as static and dichotomous, rather than dynamic and
continuous. For example, as a continental state that is in competition for foreign
economic advantages with China, Vietnam should see China as a grave threat and
consequently balance, or at least hedge, against Beijing. However, Vietnams policy
towards China has changed several times in the past two decades, suggesting that
Hanois response to China has been a dynamic one that is determined by altering
conditions.21 As a consequence, identifying the most relevant conditions and then
constructing a continuous policy spectrum would be a most helpful approach in
understanding Southeast Asian states responses to a rising China.
Domestic Factors
Domestic factors, such as ideology or regime type, sometimes play important
roles in shaping foreign policy. For example, while ideology has traditionally aligned
Vietnam with the socialist front, Carlyle Thayer has noted that the ambivalence in
Vietnam's China policy reflects the tension that occasionally arises when ideology and
national interest cannot be reconciled.22 On the other hand, ASEAN was established
by countries threatened by the spread of communism that sought close defense
cooperation with the U.S.
After the end of the Cold War, ideological conflicts between communist and
21 Alexander L. Vuving, "Strategy and Evolution of Vietnam's China Policy: A Changing Mixture of
Pathways," Asian Survey 46, no. 6 (2006).
22 Carlyle A. Thayer, "Sino-Vietnamese Relations: The Interplay of Ideology and National Interest,"
Asian Survey 34, no. 6 (1994).
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democratic camps became largely irrelevant and no longer constituted the most
critical pillar in the making of Southeast Asian states foreign policies. In less
autocratic Southeast Asian states, such as the Philippines, domestic politics is capable
of determining foreign policy. For instance, Renato De Castro argued that the
disappearance of the threat of communist ideology and the influence of a Philippines
Senate opposed to U.S. military bases were two major causes that drove away the U.S.
naval station in Subic Bay.23
Furthermore, the influence of domestic politics may be salient in investigating
how different types of regime affect foreign policies settings. Countries with similar
political institutions may be less willing to fight each other.24 From this perspective,
most Southeast Asian countries are more or less autocratic countries, which would
downplay the importance of domestic political factors. The most significant external
challenge confronting them may be the rise of China and how to position themselves
within the great power rivalry between China, India, Japan, and U.S. The salience of
domestic factors would decline as the competition among great powers in Asia
becomes more intense.
In this section, we have classified past literatures regarding Sino-Southeast Asian
relations into four categories and identified their limitations. Most of them suffer from
being less relevant, overgeneralized, static and outdated. In the next section,
we seek to mitigate these shortcomings by developing a theoretical framework that
first identifies the interplay of two major factors that concern Southeast Asian states
23 Renato Cruz De Castro, "The Revitalized Philippine-U.S. Security Relations: A Ghost from the Cold
War or an Alliance for the 21st Century?," Asian Survey 43, no. 6 (2003).
24 For democratic peace, see Michael W. Doyle, "Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs, Part 2,"
Philosophy and Public Affairs 12, no. 4 (1983). For authoritarian peace, see Mark Peceny, Caroline C.
Beer, and Shannon Sanchez-Terry, "Dictatorial Peace?," American Political Science Review 96, no. 01
(2002).
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the most. Using this analysis as a framework, we present a spectrum best capturing
Southeast Asians foreign policies toward China. Such an approach allows us to
understand how each Southeast Asian state will dynamically respond to a rising China
during different points of time.
Typologies of Strategies to the Rise of China
In this section, we identify and discuss two influential factors in determining
Southeast Asian states policies toward China. Next, we present policy options and
construct a policy spectrum which corresponds to the interplay of such factors.
Threat Perception and Expectation of Economic Relations
When analyzing the strategic options of any state, it is always crucial to identify
factors that concern it the most. Investigating Southeast Asian perspectives on the
challenges posed by a rising China, Goh pointed out that territorial disputes over
islands in the South China Sea, Sino-U.S. conflicts, Chinas regional domination, and
the economic benefits or costs of Chinas growth are factors that Southeast Asian
states worry about the most.25 She categorizes them into three dimensions: political,
military, and economic challenges. Similarly, we boil down these categories in a
broader way that includes only two factors: threat perception and the expectation of
economic relations.
The ideas behind the first pillar that constitutes the underlying basis of our policy
25 Goh, "Southeast Asian Perspectives on the China Challenge," 813-15.
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spectrum, threat perception, derive from the balance of threat theory. Stephen Walt,
studying the sources of alliances, argues that a great powers aggregate power,
geographic proximity, offensive power, and aggressive intentions are the four
major sources of threats, which serve as a signal to surrounding states and influence to
their decisions over whether or not to ally with another state. When a powerful
country has a high aggregate value of those four factors, it will generally be perceived
as a grave threat that and trigger surrounding states to ally against it.26 Using Walts
theoretical framework, we find it useful in evaluating the extent to which each
Southeast Asian country feels threatened by China. Countries facing a higher threat
perception of China are likely to feel less secure, and as a result will seek ways to
check its aggressive postures. Countries that face a lower threat perception are more
reassured of the benefits of Chinas growth, and will worry less about suffering losses
from a powerful China.
Whereas Chinas growing economic and military strengths can be seen as a
potentially threatening posture, the maritime-continental divide27 mentioned earlier
may lead maritime Southeast Asian states to be more reassured by the larger
geographic distance, while continental states may perceive a higher threat because of
their proximity. But Chinas recently military excursions into disputed islands in the
South China Sea is also a signal to maritime states of its aggressive intentions.28 In
addition, Beijings unilateral decision to build dams in the upstream of Mekong River,
without approval from the Mekong River Commission (MRC), to secure the power of
26 Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances, Cornell Studies in Security Affairs (Ithaca: Cornell
University Press, 1987).
27 Goh, "Southeast Asian Perspectives on the China Challenge," 823, 28.
28 For example, after Peoples Liberation Armys Navy (PLAN) was discovered doing construction on
Mischief Reef in 1995, Manila sensed the growing threat from Beijing and started to rethink the
possibility to revitalize its defense cooperation with U.S. See Castro, "The Revitalized Philippine-U.S.
Security Relations: A Ghost from the Cold War or an Alliance for the 21st Century?," 977-80.
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water distribution undoubtedly alerted member states of the MRC of a more
aggressive intention and resulted in a higher perception of threat from Beijing.29
It is important to note that different Southeast Asian states disputing over different
issues with China at different points of time will receive different levels of threat
perception emanated from China.
Aside from threat perception, Sino-Southeast Asian economic relations serves as
the other pillar of our policy spectrum. Whether a deeper and more open economic
relationship with China is beneficial or not to Southeast Asian states remains
controversial. A more relevant analysis should focus on the different domestic
economic conditions of each state. Thanks to the inception of the ASEAN-China Free
Trade Agreement, many Southeast Asian countries expect to attract more FDI and
export more products to China. Others, however, fear that future FDI will decrease,
accompanied by an increase in the trade deficit with China.30 These contrasting
expectations have been thoroughly discussed in disagreements among IR scholars
over the impact of interdependence on conflicts. Realists argue that greater
interdependence may lead to more conflict due to the increasing vulnerability of the
more dependent side. The vulnerable would be compelled to control what they depend
on.31 Liberals, on the other hand, argue that the interdependent relationship offers
absolute economic benefits to most involving parties, and therefore no incentive for
29 Marwaan Macan-Markar, "Mekong River's Development May Flow into Conflict " Asia Times,
March 26, 2002 2002.
30 For the variation of ASEAN-China frameworks impact on Southeast Asian states, see Eichengreen,
Rhee, and Tong, "China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries." Wong and Chan, "China-Asean
Free Trade Agreement: Shaping Future Economic Relations." John Ravenhill, "Is China an Economic
Threat to Southeast Asia?," Asian Survey 46, no. 5 (2006). Chia Siow Yue, "Asean-China Economic
Competition and Free Trade Area1," Asian Economic Papers 4, no. 1 (2005).
31 Kenneth Neal Waltz, Theory of International Politics, 1st ed. (Boston, Mass.: McGraw-Hill, 1979).
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conflict exists.32
In an attempt to mediate this discrepancy between realists and liberals, Dale
Copeland suggests a theory of trade expectation, which puts more weight on the
expectation of future impact from interdependence. Following along his work, we
recognize that for a state participating in an economically complex world, the
relationship of interdependence within a certain time period is less important than its
expectation of future economic situation.33 In the context of this paper, the
expectation of future economic impact on Southeast Asian countries is of greater
significance than the past or current situation. For example, should a Southeast Asian
country, currently competing with China on FDI inflows and export markets, expect
to suffer from higher unemployment rate soon, then the interdependent relationship
between them would be considered as a negative one that leads to a fear of losing
economic interests.34 As a consequence, China would be perceived as a less desirable
player in the region.
Taking these two factors into account, we can say that a higher threat perception
and negative economic expectation will make Chinas presence in Southeast Asia
undesirable. On the other hand, a lower threat perception and positive economic
expectation will make China a more acceptable partner. Since this interplay of these
32 Richard N. Rosecrance, The Rise of the Trading State : Commerce and Conquest in the Modern
World (New York: Basic Books, 1986). Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, Power and
Interdependence : World Politics in Transition (Boston: Little, Brown, 1977).
33 Dale C. Copeland, "Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations,"
International Security 20, no. 4 (1996).
34 For Indonesia, ASEAN plus framework raise the awareness of endangering domestic sectors. See
Deddy Saleh, "Indonesia's Fta Policy and Its Perspectives on an East Asian Fta," in East Asian
Economic Regionalism: Feasibilities and Challenges, ed. Choong Yong Ahn, Richard E. Baldwin, and
Inkyo Cheong (Netherlands: Springer, 2005); Anis Chowdhury, "Indonesia's Hesitance with Afta and
Afta Plus: A Political Economy Explanation," in FTA, Regional Integration and Development (Pusan
National University, Busan, South Korea2007).
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two factors varies across different countries and time periods, we can construct a
spectrum of the desirability of China (from the perspective of Southeast Asian states),
ranging from the most undesirable to the most desirable. A figure capturing this idea
is shown in Figure 1. This spectrum later will correspond to possible policy options.
From Soft-Balancing to Bandwagoning for Profit
Given that China presents different options and challenges for each Southeast
Asian state, their response to its presence will vary. According to the prevailing
literature on this matter, these states will either balance against China by allying with
Washington, hedge against China by means of maintaining defensive pacts with both
Beijing and Washington, or bandwagon with China.35 These policy options can be
seen as a set of fluid, flexible strategies that take into account changes in the
geopolitical situation. States are likely to choose the balancing strategy when China is
considered threatening, adopt the bandwagon strategy when Chinas posture is seen as
more favorable, and hedge if their assessment of China is somewhere in between.
Given that each Southeast Asian country will choose different strategies in response to
different situations during different periods, we do not believe that any particular
single strategy is enough to explain each states policymaking.
It is necessary to clearly define the terms balancing, bandwagoning, and
hedging in our framework. According to IR scholars, a balancing strategy refers
to the balance of power. Naturally, power is important for states to survive. For great
35 For balancing strategy, see Ross, "Balance of Power Politics and the Rise of China: Accommodation
and Balancing in East Asia." For hedging strategy, see Roy, "Southeast Asia and China: Balancing or
Bandwagoning?." Ann Marie Murphy, "Beyond Balancing and Bandwagoning: Thailand's Response to
China's Rise," Asian Security 6, no. 1 (2010). For bandwagoning, see Kang, "Getting Asia Wrong: The
Need for New Analytical Frameworks."
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powers, they need enough material power to survive a war with others. Weaker states
can choose to ally with powerful sides in order to seek protection. Maintaining a
balance of power is considered to promote stability, since equal power distribution
between different alliances will raise the cost of war and decrease the likelihood of an
easy victory.36 As we have mentioned, however, while survival has historically been
the main motivation for weaker states to balance against a rising power, this threat has
largely diminished in the post-Cold War era.37 In Southeast Asia, the shared norm of
non-interference has been embraced, rendering actual territorial invasions less likely.
Today, diplomacy replaced military as an alternate means to resolve disputes.38
Not only in Southeast Asia, but around the world, the reliance on military
alliance as a strategy to hard balance against others is becoming an increasingly rare
occurrence. Instead, states are more likely to adopt a soft balancing strategy to
contain perceived threats. Soft balancing involves the formation of limited diplomatic
coalitions or entities through upgrading existing alliances. Examples of soft balancing
include coalitions in international organizations and joint military exercises. Roy uses
a similar concept called low-intensity balancing to describe that, rather than
forming formal military alliance with Washington, some Southeast Asian countries
have been trying to bring more U.S. military power back in Asia to constrain China.39
Such strategies include containing China through forming diplomatic coalitions in
international organizations to check Chinas ambitions, or bringing other great powers,
36 For the argument of war being least likely if power is distributed equally and its counterargument,
see Wagners discussion in R. Harrison Wagner, "Peace, War, and the Balance of Power," American
Political Science Review 88, no. 3 (1994).
37 Paul, "Soft Balancing in the Age of U.S. Primacy," 54-55.
38 Robin Ramcharan, "Asean and Non-Interference: A Principle Maintained," Contemporary Southeast
Asia 22, no. 1 (2000).
39 Roy also called this soft balancing. See Roy, "Southeast Asia and China: Balancing or
Bandwagoning?."
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such as India, Japan, or U.S., into the region by mean of holding joint military
exercises or hosting military bases for them.
In contrary to the strategy of balancing against a perceived threat, bandwagoning,
or cooperation in hopes of seeking protection or other benefits, is another commonly
discussed behavior when states confront grave threats.40 According to most IR
scholars, this involves forming military alliances with the potential threat. In our
discussion, bandwagoning refers to Southeast Asian countries seeking military
alliances with China, whether to appease Beijings aggression or share spoils from
potential future conflicts. The end of the Cold War, however, has made this logic less
relevant since international wars between great powers seem less likely to occur,
especially in East Asia.
Some scholars propose that bandwagoning is more about gaining interests than
ensuring survival. When a great power emerges as a revisionist one, it would attract
weaker states that seek benefits from joining the revisionist group. Bandwagoning
exists as a choice for weak states to respond to a threat, rather than a part of that threat;
therefore, bandwagoning should be more relevant if understood as a way to profit, not
survive.41 Here we adopt the interpretation that bandwagoning, for Southeast Asian
countries, is to seek intensive defense and economic cooperation with China at the
expense of cooperating with other major powers42 for the sake of securing
40 For discussions of balancing vs. bandwagoning, see Stephen M. Walt, "Alliance Formation and
the Balance of World Power," International Security 9, no. 4 (1985): 4-8. Roy, "Southeast Asia and
China: Balancing or Bandwagoning?," 306-08. Robert G. Kaufman, "to Balance or to Bandwagon?
Alignment Decisions in 1930s Europe," Security Studies 1, no. 3 (1992): 419-24. David C. Kang,
"Between Balancing and Bandwagoning: South Korea's Response to China," Journal of East Asian
Studies 9, no. 1 (2009): 5-9.
41 For this interpretation, see Schwellers balance of interests theory. Randall L. Schweller,
"Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In," International Security 19, no. 1
(1994).
42 Great powers mentioned here are India, Japan and United States.
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opportunities elsewhere.43 When Chinese actions are perceived as more desirable,
Southeast Asian states will be more prone to choose a bandwagoning strategy.
Between the strategies of soft-balancing and bandwagoning for profit, playing
safe is another policy option for Southeast Asian States in dealing with China.
Potential regional institutions capable of resolving controversies are still in the
making in East Asia; therefore, for weaker players like the Southeast Asian countries,
there is great uncertainty ahead. Choosing to side exclusively with China, India, Japan,
or the U.S. may be unwise and unnecessarily risky. On the other hand, developing a
strategy to maintain an equal relationship with all the great powers may be the most
rational choice. For example, states can maintain a modest level of defense
cooperation with Washington while still militarily and economically engaging China
in a positive way. This strategy is typically called hedging.44
A hedging strategy offers more flexibility for countries dealing with uncertainty.
Maintaining equal distance with major powers would serve secondary states interests,
especially when current Sino-U.S. relationship in East Asia is stable but competitive.45
However, should threats from China become more severe or economic benefits less
favorable, an initial hedging state might turn to side with other powers to constrain
China. On the other hand, if the threat from China diminishes and economic benefits
become more favorable, a hedging state may lean more and more toward China, to the
point of adopting a bandwagoning strategy to seek greater profits from closer
relations.
43 For a bandwagon for profit case, see Murphy, "Beyond Balancing and Bandwagoning: Thailand's
Response to China's Rise."
44 Roy, "Southeast Asia and China: Balancing or Bandwagoning?."
45 Gaye Christoffersen, "The Role of East Asia in Sino-American Relations," Asian Survey 42, no. 3
(2002). Shannon Tow, "Southeast Asia in the Sino-U.S. Strategic Balance," Contemporary Southeast
Asia: A Journal of International & Strategic Affairs 26, no. 3 (2004).
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Here we hypothesize that if a Southeast Asian state perceives higher threats and
expects to suffer economically from cooperation with China (an HT-NE undesirable
China), it is more likely to choose a soft balancing strategy; if it foresees lower
threats and expects to benefit economically from cooperating with China (a LT-PE
desirable China), it is more likely to choose a bandwagoning strategy; if it perceives
higher threats but expects to benefit economically from cooperating with China, or
perceives lower threats but expects to suffer economically from cooperation with
China, it is more likely to choose a hedging strategy. We demonstrate this theory
with a policy spectrum, ranging from soft-balancing, hedging to bandwagoning, in
Figure 1.
In the next section, we use two cases, Sino-Vietnam and Sino-Thailand relations,
to test our hypothesis.
Empirical Evidences from Vietnam and Cambodia
Southeast Asia is of great geo-economic and geo-political interest to China.
Much of Chinas trade and oil from the Middle East, for example, passes through this
region. Moreover, ASEAN member states are regarded by China as an ally in their
fight to resist Western pressure on issues such as domestic political liberalization and
human rights.46 Clearly, looking beyond the border and securing national interests in
the region by harmonizing Southeast Asia is in line with Beijings grand, publicized
strategy of peaceful ascendancy and peaceful development.
In this section, we will examine Vietnam-China and Cambodia-China relations
as evidences to support the explanatory typologies described in the previous section.
46 Jian Yang, "China's Security Strategy and Policies," in Asian Security Reassessed, ed. Stephen
Hoadley and Jrgen Rland (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2006).
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In the case of Vietnam-China relations, we argue that Vietnam has long regarded
China as a security threat due to the ongoing territorial dispute in the South China Sea.
Although both sides are working on promoting sub-regional economic and local
infrastructure development, the territorial dispute, and the conflict over export
competition, remains at the forefront of Vietnams posture toward China. Its
soft-balancing strategy, therefore, is to ally with the United States bilaterally and to
enmesh China in a multilateral framework based on regional consensus and norms.
On the other side, the case of Cambodia-China relations has all the characteristics of a
win-win partnership. We argue that there is no direct security conflict between China
and Cambodia since Cambodia is not involved in the South China Sea dispute. And as
the bilateral trade between the two countries increases rapidly, Cambodia expects, and
also needs, to maintain the political coalition with Beijing to attract more investments
and foreign aid from China. The bandwagoning strategy, so to speak, seems to be its
most rational policy.
Vietnams Balancing Strategy against China (HT-NE Type)
A rising power may spell troubles for its neighbors. Accordingly, Chinas rapid
economic growth and the expansion of military capability have caused much alarm to
its Southeast Asian neighbors in the 1990s and early 2000s.47 Some ASEAN
countries have pursued balancing or bandwagoning strategies to deal with Beijing,
while others, such as Malaysia and Singapore, followed a hedging policy.48 As
discussed, the balancing strategy is the policy based on a grave sense of security and
47 Ravenhill, "Is China an Economic Threat to Southeast Asia?."
48 Kuik Cheng-Chwee, "The Essence of Hedging: Malaysia and Singapore's Response to a Rising
China," Contemporary Southeast Asia 30, no. 2 (2008).
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economic threats,49 and our review of Vietnam-China relation demonstrates such a
case supporting the HT-NE type of China-ASEAN relations.
While Vietnam and China are both communist countries with a similar
authoritarian regime type, this factor alone cannot eliminate Vietnams perception of
China as a potentially threatening neighbor. Factions among Vietnamese policy
communities have debated different policies toward China for years. Some who
support maintaining a positive relationship with China anticipate that goodwill
diplomacy will attract more Chinese investment and boost mutual trade. Others
worried about Chinas military presence and economic dominance in the region prefer
a more hostile stance to Beijing. In effect, Vietnams threat perception towards China
is mainly derived from security interests and negative expectation of economic
interests.
Vietnam has encountered several threats from China on the economic front, most
notably trade deficit, unemployment issue, and infrastructure development related to
national security. In recent years, bilateral trade volume between Vietnam and China
has been growing substantially, with annual growth around 30%. Chinas southern
provinces, such as Guangxi, pursues sub-regional strategies supported by Beijing and
Indochinese ASEAN countries, and Vietnam is its primary partner in Indochinese
peninsula. But it is estimated that Vietnams trade deficit towards China has
significantly increased from US$ 0.2 billion in 2001 to US$ 12.6 billion in 2010.50
The exchange of Vietnams raw material (iron and coal) for Chinas high-price
products (steel and mechanic equipment) is one of the reasons for this increasing trade
deficit, which is also leading to the decline in Vietnams market share of domestic
49 Ravenhill, "Is China an Economic Threat to Southeast Asia?."
50 Trade statistics comes from The Council of Taiwanese Chambers of Commerce in Vietnam,
http://www.ctcvn.org/yncj-nry.aspx?sn=2811 (accessed on 2011/3/7)
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products. The current situation in bilateral trade between Vietnam and China, as well
as the surging deficit, will inevitably exacerbate the negative interdependence
relationship and raise Hanois threat perception of China.
In addition to the deficit issue, unemployment has become another point of
contention in their economic relationship. As we conduct field work at the
Vietnam-China border in Guangxi province, current sub-regional development
strategies pursued by both sides are fostering a closer local-to-local partnership. For
example, Vietnamese commodities are easily seen in Fangcheng in China, while many
of the factories and power stations in the northern provinces of Vietnam were built
with Chinese funding. Chinas investment was expected to provide employment
opportunities for local Vietnamese. However, some Chinese companies that have
established factories in Vietnam, such as the power stations in Halphong, hire only
Chinese migrant workers, thus making Vietnamese labor become less competitive. In
this regard, foreign investment projects like this has threatened local labor markets
and has also resulted in fostering a negative image towards Chinese economic
expansion initiatives. From Vietnams perspective, future economic relationship with
China is not expected to be desirable.
A third feature of the negative interdependence between China and Vietnam is
related to local infrastructure investment projects. In recent years, Vietnam planned to
build a 1,570 km high-speed rail throughout Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Several
countries such as Japan, Korea, and China, have expressed their interest and
willingness to invest in this project. If the cost and technology are considered, Japan
and China are the most competitive candidates. Japan, the number one creditor of
Vietnam with US$ 8.4 billion, has the most advanced Shinkansen technology. China,
on the other hand, has initiated a new building scheme at the lowest cost while it has
offered to develop a high-speed rail link between Ho Chi Minh City and Phnom Penh,
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the capital of Cambodia.51 Consequently, Vietnam rejected Chinas proposal and
chose Japans plans. It was said that the decision to choose Japans proposal instead of
Chinas was made on account of its high-speed rail technology. However, domestic
critics revealed that this decision was made based on Vietnams national security
concern. They argued that Vietnamese political elites were worried potential border
skirmishes and tensions over disputed territory between two states. They fear that if
war broke out, the high-speed rail built by China may be a critical infrastructure that
can be used to transport and supply troops and aid in a swift invasion of Vietnam.
Clearly, China is still regarded as a potential foreign invader to Vietnam.
Much of the perception of China as a threat is related to the South China Sea
dispute. On March 5th 2011, Vietnam protested a military drill conducted by China
drilling in the Spratlys, arguing that the PLAs anti-piracy exercise intruded upon
Vietnamese territory.52 This is not a unique incident, as the South China Sea and
surrounding archipelago have been problematic military flashpoints for decades.
Understandably, Beijings assertive claim over this region is problematic in the eyes
of the ASEAN countries. Among them, Vietnam has been the most active state in
working on a multilateral process of dispute resolution, especially during its ASEAN
chairmanship in 2010. Vietnam vigorously publicizes and internationalizes the South
China Sea disputes on almost all the major occasions related to ASEAN meetings, and
is constantly seeking for possibilities to work with potential allies to balance Chinas
rising influence in the region.53
51 According to the blueprint of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail, this 1,318 km rail construction
project will cost RMB 221 billion while Japanese proposal is expected to cost RMB 380 billion.
52 China Post, "Vietnam Protests China's Spratly Military Exercises," March 5, 2011 2011. (accessed
on 2011/3/9)
53 The Hanoist, "Vietnam Hedges Its China Risk," Asia Times, June 30, 2010 2010. (accessed on
2011/3/7)
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For example, during the summer of 2010, disputes between the U.S. and China
in the ARF meeting centered on South China Sea issues, where U.S. Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton noted that the maritime security was a pivotal issue.54 No
parties reached an agreement after the meeting; however, the debates have triggered
subsequent confrontations between China and its neighbors. In August 2010, U.S.
bilateral cooperation with Vietnam on this ongoing dispute led to a joint military
exercises in the region. The joint training, which also involved the super-carrier USS
George Washington, focused on non-combat operations, and was the first military
exercise conducted by the U.S. and Vietnam, who only a few decades ago were
enemies.55 This military exercise, which also included naval drills by U.S. and South
Korean troops in the Yellow Sea, infuriated Beijing.56 It is clear that Vietnam, with its
increasing emphasis on economic dynamism, emerging markets, and national security,
has successfully gained support from the U.S. to counterbalance Chinas claims and
military presence in South China Sea. Thus, negative economic expectation and high
threat perception have led Vietnam to adopt a soft-balancing strategy against China.
Cambodias Bandwagoning Stance with China (LT-PE Type)
54 Bloomberg Businessweek, "U.S. Signals to China It Won't Keep out of South Sea," July 23, 2010.
(accessed on 2010/12/2).
55 Voice of America, "Us, Vietnam to Launch Unprecedented Naval Exercises," August 10 2010.
(accessed on 2010/12/2)
56 Hannah Beech, "Asia's New Cold War," Time, October 3, 2010. (accessed on 2010/12/2)
; Alan Mascarenhas,
"China's Navy Is Worrying Its Neighbors," Newsweek, August 1, 2010. (accessed on 2011/3/2).
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Since bandwagoning is more about weak states deferential or subordinate
response to a potential threat or an existing hegemon, it begins within an asymmetric
power structure and may lead to asymmetric exchange between a strong state and a
weak one. The relationship between Cambodia, a small ASEAN member state, a
powerful China is a good example how the bandwagon strategy works to the benefit
of both sides.
Regarding the case of Cambodia-China relations, it has all the trappings of a
win-win partnership. Although Cambodia scholars usually publicize that their
government does not regards China as either a friend, foe, threat, or guarantor,57 it is
evident that the Cambodian Royal Government champions a pro-China policy on
political and economic issues. In effect, Cambodia is maintaining a close relationship
with China because it needs support in domestic politics, security arrangements, and
economic development. Economically speaking, Chinas impressive market and
economic growth is a great promise and stimulus to Cambodia, where domestic
market has been rather weak, and which highly desires foreign investments from
China. On the political front, Cambodia seeks to take advantage of Chinas powerful
influence in international affairs to gain more prestige and influence against another
neighboring power, Thailand, especially in light of the ongoing Thailand-Cambodia
border dispute.
Economically, Cambodia has benefited from China, which has been its most
important aid provider and critical investor since the 2000s. In 2007 and 2008, for
example, Beijing poured US $600 million and USD$260 million, respectively, in
Cambodia, most of which were used to construct roads, highways, and local irrigation
57 Sisowath Doung Chanto, "Cambodia," in Betwixt and Between: Southeast Asian Strategic Relations
with the U.S. And China, ed. Evelyn Goh, Idss Monograph No. 7 (Singapore: Institute of Defence and
Strategic Studies, 2005), 83.
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systems. In 2010, China also provided US $300 million in loans and US $15 million
in foreign aid to Phnom Penh. It is estimated that Beijing has contributed more than
1,500 km worth of roads and bridges in Cambodia. A new and solid domestic
transportation network is anticipated to boost economic growth in Cambodia and
promote the growth of trade volumes. In 2009, the total bilateral trade volume
between Cambodia and China was US $791 million, and the number now amounts to
US $1.12 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 41.5%.58 In December 2010, both sides
have pledged to increase trade volume to US $2.5 billion by 2015. In effect, just as in
other ASEAN countries, trade cooperation has been regarded as pattern cooperation
for Cambodia-China relations.
As the bilateral trade figures rapidly increase, Cambodia seeks to maintain a
comprehensive partnership with Beijing to attract more investments and foreign aid
from China. To accomplish this, the bandwagoning strategy appears to be the most
rational policy option. While Cambodia is promoting its local economy by
establishing 22 economic zones, the Royal Government continues to ask for Chinas
support to invest in key areas. For example, the development of the Sihanoukville
Special Economic Zone has received investments by a collaborative effort by the
Cambodia International Investment Group Co. Ltd. and the Taihu Cambodia
International Economic Cooperation Zone Investment Co. Ltd, a state-owned
enterprises in China approved by Ministry of Commerce.59 For China, the investment
58 People's Daily, "Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Praises China-Cambodia Cooperation," February
22, 2011. (accessed on 2011/3/10).
59 Invest in Cambodia, "Special Economic Zones." (accessed on 2011/3/7).
; Sihanoukville Special Economic Zone,
"Introduction of Sihanoukville Special Economic Zone." (accessed on 2011/3/7). Chinese Chamber of
Commerce in Cambodia, "Sihanoukville Special Economic Zone (Ssez) Investment Policies."
(accessed on 2011/3/10). .
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project clearly underscores its commitment to the core values of its going out
strategy. For Cambodia, the development of local industries in areas such as textile
and clothing, machinery and electronics, and high-tech products is highly desirable.
As these examples show, foreign aid, bilateral trade and new investment projects are
the pillars behind Phnom Penhs pro-China policy.
Along with its beneficial economic relationship with China, Cambodia does not
see a threat in Beijing. Generally speaking, unlike other ASEAN countries, Cambodia
does not have any significant disputes with China, except for the environmental
degradation and water dispute in the lower Mekong River basin resulting from the
Chinas dam construction project in upper stream of the river, which runs through its
southern provinces. Although the members of Mekong River Commission, which
includes Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam, have criticized Chinas dam
construction project for retaining water and draining the downstream region of
water,60 this issue has yet to damage the amity and cooperation between Cambodia
and China.
Since there has yet to be any significant conflicts between China and Cambodia,
the Cambodian government, shortly after its membership in ASEAN, has sought to
work with China and improve its bilateral relation with Beijing politically and
strategically. Since then, China has become Cambodias main protector by providing
military aid and security guarantees.61 In the recent case of Thailand-Cambodia
border dispute, China holds a key to the territorial dispute. As mentioned above,
China offers military assistance to Cambodia, such as supplying weapons that are sent
to the front lines to in this conflict. Such relationship is kind of a reply to Chinas
60 Huw Pohlner, "Water, Leadership and Geopolitics in Continental Asia," East Asia Forum Quarterly
2, no. 3 (2010): 6-7.
61 Dayley and Neher, Southeast Asia in the New International Era, 270-71.
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investment policy in Indochinese Peninsula, an action which redirects attention of
those countries who has depended in trade, economics and politics on Thailand so
much and so much and for so long. Because Cambodia is rather small in scale if
compared to Thailand, Cambodia hopes strongly to publicize its border dispute to the
international community. As a result, Cambodia has adopted an increasingly
submissive posture to China, which, despite acting neutral in the eyes of the public,
has actively supported Cambodian development.
Conclusion
In this paper, we investigate the interplay of Sino-Southeast Asian countries
economic and security relations by introducing the theories of trade expectation and
balance, which help explain divergent Southeast Asian countries responses to a rising
China. From the cases of Vietnam-China and Cambodia-China relations, we offer
empirical evidences that correspond to explanatory typologies. Countries that perceive
a grave sense of threat and expect to suffer economically from cooperation with China,
such as Vietnam, will choose a soft balancing strategy; countries such as Cambodia,
which perceives a low sense of threat and expects to benefit economically from
cooperation with China, is more likely to choose a bandwagoning strategy.
With the global academia and policy communities focusing on the rise of China,
it is understandable that small states appear to be mere peripheral players in the East
Asian power structure. However, when investigating the typology of small states
responses to this rising power, we may find that they are more likely to leverage their
importance in the power game, which may lead to a further theorizing process of
future ASEAN-China relations.
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Figure 1. A Spectrum of the Desirability of China
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