outlook for paper november 8, 2005 book manufacturers’ institute, inc. annual conference

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Outlook for Paper November 8, 2005 BOOK MANUFACTURERS’ INSTITUTE, INC. ANNUAL CONFERENCE

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  • Outlook for Paper

    November 8, 2005 BOOK MANUFACTURERS INSTITUTE, INC. ANNUAL CONFERENCE

  • AgendaPaper market update

    Brightness issue

    Environmental issues facing publishers & paper manufacturers

    Questions & answers

  • U.S. 2004 Printing & Writing Shipments By End UseSource: AF&PATotal Shipments 23,591,322 Tons

  • North American Demand by Grade(Printing & Writing Segments) (000 tons)Source: RISI/Paperloop

    20052006Uncoated Freesheet% Change14,28414,2880%Uncoated Groundwood% Change6,9136,9591%Coated Freesheet% Change6,0956,1541%Coated Groundwood% Change6,5806,5800%

  • Key Paper Statistics(North America)Source: PPPC-4% Change YTD+1% Change

    NA Line Chart

    221822542273

    207722212168

    231424342469

    218923162232

    216423052211

    218124082328

    230924182293

    23172435Aug

    23422411Sep

    24292396Oct

    21222269Nov

    21812250Dec

    &A

    Page &P

    Source: PPPC

    '000 tonnes

    2003

    2004

    2005

    NORTH AMERICAN PRINTING & WRITING SHIPMENTS

    CFS Line Chart

    345345339

    323323342

    355359390

    318359322

    317385325

    337391379

    344373374

    359397Aug

    378391Sep

    375367Oct

    317338Nov

    336352Dec

    &A

    Page &P

    Source: PPPC

    '000 tonnes

    2003

    2004

    2005

    N.A. COATED FREE SHEET SHIPMENTS

    UFS Line Chart

    1074

    980

    1106

    1058

    1036

    1040

    1090

    1061

    1060

    1111

    938

    1012

    1062

    1071

    1160

    1075

    1028

    1081

    1086

    1084

    1029

    1061

    992

    987

    1040

    991

    1139

    1036

    1007

    1025

    1015

    &A

    Page &P

    '000 tonnes

    2003

    N.A. UNCOATED FREE SHEET SHIPMENTS

    -------------

    N.A. - Chart

    86%

    86%

    N.A. - Chart

    2304

    2293

    11

    Jul

    Production vs. Shipments

    UFS - Chart

    2557

    2548

    2504

    2502

    2539

    2505

    2473

    2380

    2258

    2191

    2270

    2366

    2455

    2475

    2538

    2585

    2707

    2742

    2759

    2703

    2583

    2468

    2521

    2492

    2518

    2465

    2362

    2347

    2301

    2220

    2255

    2243

    2221

    2246

    2293

    2355

    2427

    2500

    2427

    2564

    2646

    2618

    2626

    &A

    Page &P

    Inventories

    YTD Inventories

    CFS - Chart

    0.850.88203125

    0.890.886109762

    0.890.8727488987

    0.910.9091914705

    0.850.8648916551

    0.90.8958866545

    0.920.9074349125

    0.940.9050413223

    0.950.9011382799

    0.960.9347163695

    0.90.9312694878

    0.860.898266055

    0.870.9045175834

    0.90.909099663

    0.90.9291702679

    0.880.8988944724

    0.840.8873567468

    0.880.8941219624

    0.90.9066262451

    0.90.8782477341

    0.940.8954483348

    0.940.8927871552

    0.860.8822902922

    0.860.848959193

    0.870.8769476486

    0.920.8951463305

    0.930.8910271159

    0.920.9140414508

    0.880.8738915401

    0.950.9042358804

    0.90.9130272953

    0.920.9079096509

    0.940.9294732476

    0.910.9194949917

    0.890.9178492728

    0.860.8844622222

    0.860.9050241971

    0.90.9224169742

    0.930.9070230863

    0.870.9128763441

    0.840.8707734057

    0.90.8826030928

    0.860.8641255997

    &A

    Page &P

    Ship/Capacity

    Prod/Capacity

    Operating Rates

    UGW - Chart

    84%

    85%

    UGW - Chart

    1033

    1015

    18

    Jul

    Production vs. Shipments

    CGW - Chart

    1515630

    1471620

    1422620

    1404660

    1401670

    1379700

    1382690

    1336680

    1287690

    1258700

    1316680

    1372670

    1421660

    1436655

    1446655

    1444645

    1466635

    1456630

    1435610

    1403600

    1399600

    1350590

    1379590

    1364580

    1365580

    1307580

    1219620

    1198620

    1152660

    1152700

    1189730

    1186730

    1209780

    1240780

    1291780

    1334780

    1351770

    1377740

    1294740

    1336770

    1341740

    1353730

    1371720

    &A

    Page &P

    $/Ton

    Inventories

    UFS (50lb) $/Ton

    YTD Inventories

    ----

    0.90.9193820225

    0.930.889039039

    0.940.8981850534

    0.940.92440553

    0.880.8774928775

    0.90.8800769971

    0.910.9133486661

    0.940.9003766816

    0.940.8984147465

    0.930.9055927602

    0.860.9095151515

    0.860.9072620216

    0.890.9306052142

    0.90.9137755102

    0.910.9338607595

    0.90.8991493384

    0.860.8774324324

    0.890.8814423077

    0.90.8826605505

    0.880.8534590009

    0.910.91

    0.920.8802520252

    0.80.8332622601

    0.840.8217391304

    0.870.8724576271

    0.950.8905695612

    0.960.888

    0.920.9028837209

    0.850.8359435798

    0.930.8981683626

    0.890.912946593

    0.90.8867158672

    0.880.9005247813

    0.880.9057115928

    0.850.9039818548

    0.820.854893617

    0.870.9051346154

    0.910.9219374369

    0.950.8816066725

    0.890.9054633205

    0.840.8425024826

    0.880.8765658537

    0.840.8548965517

    &A

    Page &P

    Ship/Capacity

    Prod/Capacity

    Operating Rates

    UGW - Chart (Bk)

    85%

    78%

    UGW - Chart (Bk)

    342

    374

    -32

    Jul

    Production vs. Shipments

    UGW - Pie

    658760

    675755

    666745

    661735

    679725

    676725

    650725

    606725

    541725

    515765

    572765

    584765

    601800

    624810

    662805

    678785

    727780

    764775

    777775

    758770

    685765

    674760

    708755

    701755

    712750

    707745

    687745

    679745

    667745

    618755

    622805

    605815

    598880

    608870

    631870

    657870

    680870

    707870

    720900

    781930

    798900

    786900

    755890

    &A

    Page &P

    Inventories

    CFS (60lb #3) $/Ton

    YTD Inventories

    ---data---

    0.840.8993220339

    0.860.90443769

    0.860.8387362637

    0.880.8677094972

    0.820.8625360231

    0.870.8626062323

    0.910.8463471503

    0.950.8455

    0.970.8107828283

    0.980.9728640777

    0.880.9734078212

    0.870.9572357724

    0.840.8813913043

    0.880.9426625387

    0.880.9469295775

    0.810.850754717

    0.780.8981072555

    0.860.954421365

    0.850.882122093

    0.890.8453760446

    0.940.755978836

    0.910.8396266667

    0.810.866214511

    0.820.8370833333

    0.820.8152463768

    0.840.8243962848

    0.880.8309749304

    0.910.8922562674

    0.940.9107012987

    0.990.8659335038

    0.910.9197587131

    0.970.9284634761

    0.990.9748081841

    0.90.9245231608

    0.850.9204142012

    0.860.9235227273

    0.80.9132743363

    0.870.9310526316

    0.890.9196666667

    0.760.892173913

    0.740.7787076923

    0.890.8618205805

    0.850.7772727273

    &A

    Page &P

    Ship/Capacity

    Prod/Capacity

    Operating Rates

    TOTAL N.A.

    93%

    96%

    $/Ton

    TOTAL N.A.

    502

    488

    14

    Jul

    Production vs. Shipments

    UFS

    207

    220

    237

    244

    250

    233

    233

    249

    244

    212

    208

    221

    245

    218

    220

    233

    250

    251

    259

    252

    241

    215

    210

    200

    215

    227

    230

    231

    245

    252

    232

    257

    240

    288

    208

    207

    240

    252

    235

    248

    269

    260

    274

    &A

    Page &P

    Inventories

    YTD Inventories

    CFS

    0.810.866953125

    0.890.9200519481

    0.870.9055528846

    0.890.9051581509

    0.860.8747911548

    0.930.890962963

    0.890.8878959811

    0.90.934537246

    0.950.9393736018

    1.010.9461020408

    0.960.9495878525

    0.840.8678571429

    0.80.8485488127

    0.920.8571139241

    0.860.8640186916

    0.890.9188425926

    0.850.8841607565

    0.880.88

    0.910.9260352423

    0.930.9135761589

    0.930.9070627803

    0.980.928

    0.950.9308295964

    0.860.8410294118

    0.850.8772839506

    0.880.9084577114

    0.90.9076595745

    0.920.922021978

    0.860.8871783296

    0.90.913876652

    0.920.9162977867

    0.870.8936610879

    0.980.928030303

    0.960.9372781065

    0.960.9328484848

    0.940.9458506224

    0.90.9548319328

    0.940.9607505519

    0.990.9805714286

    0.970.9950695825

    0.930.9706875

    0.950.9324795082

    0.930.9566803279

    &A

    Page &P

    Ship/Capacity

    Prod/Capacity

    Operating Rates

    UGW

    85%

    87%

    UGW

    427

    416

    11

    Jul

    Production vs. Shipments

    CGW

    184

    188

    187

    199

    214

    217

    208

    189

    185

    205

    182

    189

    187

    197

    211

    230

    264

    271

    288

    291

    258

    229

    224

    227

    225

    224

    227

    239

    237

    199

    206

    195

    173

    170

    163

    157

    157

    164

    178

    200

    239

    218

    226

    &A

    Page &P

    Inventories

    YTD Inventories

    Line Charts

    0.790.815483871

    0.820.8293982808

    0.780.7757837838

    0.850.8761538462

    0.80.832

    0.880.8866

    0.950.9329977629

    0.980.9440172786

    0.970.9634311512

    0.980.9757483731

    0.960.9446224256

    0.850.8267412935

    0.920.9156190476

    0.920.9442744063

    0.930.9694811321

    0.870.9157894737

    0.840.9134190231

    0.880.8956743003

    0.910.9468333333

    0.960.9643243243

    1.030.969279476

    0.980.9388053097

    0.950.9522511848

    0.930.9190588235

    0.920.9283257919

    0.950.9477699531

    0.930.9341797753

    0.920.945915493

    0.930.9279287305

    1.030.9468322981

    0.920.9407207207

    0.990.9671218487

    0.990.9515948276

    0.960.951670282

    0.950.9350561798

    0.890.8754778555

    0.860.8579425837

    0.870.8859424084

    0.850.876626506

    0.790.8367204301

    0.820.89995

    0.930.8853089245

    0.850.8724759615

    &A

    Page &P

    Ship/Capacity

    Prod/Capacity

    Operating Rates

    -----

    UGW-Level 1

    Yr/Yr Comparison

    High-Bright9%12%

    GLT Book20%3%

    UGW-Level 1

    342420

    386434

    109.436112.705

    2004

    2005

    Shipments - YTD(July)

    5854

    5459

    15.65818.811

    2004

    2005

    Shipments - Yr/Yr(July)

    364714.401

    445016.299

    496018.362

    576013.445

    476114.255

    515417.016

    585415.658

    525216.041

    495718.319

    495115.062

    545213.21

    474913.456

    535713.953

    575715.451

    676416.11

    736414.087

    577115.732

    596218.561

    545918.811

    &A

    Page &P

    Super-Bright

    High-Bright

    GLT BOOK

    Shipments Trends

    Basis WtBrightnessSmoothness

    Super-Bright>27#>74Super Calendar

    High-Bright>27#64< x27#

  • Key Paper Statistics Continued

    Chart3

    1515630

    1471620

    1422620

    1404660

    1401670

    1379700

    1382690

    1336680

    1287690

    1258700

    1316680

    1372670

    1421660

    1436655

    1446655

    1444645

    1466635

    1456630

    1435610

    1403600

    1399600

    1350590

    1379590

    1364580

    1365580

    1307580

    1219620

    1198620

    1152660

    1152700

    1189730

    1186730

    1209780

    1240780

    1291780

    1334780

    1351770

    1377740

    1294740

    1336770

    1341740

    1353730

    1371720

    $/Ton

    Inventories

    UFS (50lb) $/Ton

    YTD Inventories

    NA Line Chart

    221822542273

    207722212168

    231424342469

    218923162232

    216423052211

    218124082328

    230924182293

    23172435Aug

    23422411Sep

    24292396Oct

    21222269Nov

    21812250Dec

    &A

    Page &P

    Source: PPPC

    '000 tonnes

    2003

    2004

    2005

    NORTH AMERICAN PRINTING & WRITING SHIPMENTS

    CFS Line Chart

    345345339

    323323342

    355359390

    318359322

    317385325

    337391379

    344373374

    359397Aug

    378391Sep

    375367Oct

    317338Nov

    336352Dec

    &A

    Page &P

    Source: PPPC

    '000 tonnes

    2003

    2004

    2005

    N.A. COATED FREE SHEET SHIPMENTS

    UFS Line Chart

    1074

    980

    1106

    1058

    1036

    1040

    1090

    1061

    1060

    1111

    938

    1012

    1062

    1071

    1160

    1075

    1028

    1081

    1086

    1084

    1029

    1061

    992

    987

    1040

    991

    1139

    1036

    1007

    1025

    1015

    &A

    Page &P

    Source: PPPC

    '000 tonnes

    2003

    N.A. UNCOATED FREE SHEET SHIPMENTS

    -------------

    N.A. - Chart

    86%

    86%

    N.A. - Chart

    2304

    2293

    11

    Jul

    Production vs. Shipments

    UFS - Chart

    2557

    2548

    2504

    2502

    2539

    2505

    2473

    2380

    2258

    2191

    2270

    2366

    2455

    2475

    2538

    2585

    2707

    2742

    2759

    2703

    2583

    2468

    2521

    2492

    2518

    2465

    2362

    2347

    2301

    2220

    2255

    2243

    2221

    2246

    2293

    2355

    2427

    2500

    2427

    2564

    2646

    2618

    2626

    &A

    Page &P

    Inventories

    YTD Inventories

    CFS - Chart

    0.850.88203125

    0.890.886109762

    0.890.8727488987

    0.910.9091914705

    0.850.8648916551

    0.90.8958866545

    0.920.9074349125

    0.940.9050413223

    0.950.9011382799

    0.960.9347163695

    0.90.9312694878

    0.860.898266055

    0.870.9045175834

    0.90.909099663

    0.90.9291702679

    0.880.8988944724

    0.840.8873567468

    0.880.8941219624

    0.90.9066262451

    0.90.8782477341

    0.940.8954483348

    0.940.8927871552

    0.860.8822902922

    0.860.848959193

    0.870.8769476486

    0.920.8951463305

    0.930.8910271159

    0.920.9140414508

    0.880.8738915401

    0.950.9042358804

    0.90.9130272953

    0.920.9079096509

    0.940.9294732476

    0.910.9194949917

    0.890.9178492728

    0.860.8844622222

    0.860.9050241971

    0.90.9224169742

    0.930.9070230863

    0.870.9128763441

    0.840.8707734057

    0.90.8826030928

    0.860.8641255997

    &A

    Page &P

    Ship/Capacity

    Prod/Capacity

    Operating Rates

    UGW - Chart

    84%

    85%

    UGW - Chart

    1033

    1015

    18

    Jul

    Production vs. Shipments

    CGW - Chart

    1515630

    1471620

    1422620

    1404660

    1401670

    1379700

    1382690

    1336680

    1287690

    1258700

    1316680

    1372670

    1421660

    1436655

    1446655

    1444645

    1466635

    1456630

    1435610

    1403600

    1399600

    1350590

    1379590

    1364580

    1365580

    1307580

    1219620

    1198620

    1152660

    1152700

    1189730

    1186730

    1209780

    1240780

    1291780

    1334780

    1351770

    1377740

    1294740

    1336770

    1341740

    1353730

    1371720

    &A

    Page &P

    $/Ton

    Inventories

    UFS (50lb) $/Ton

    YTD Inventories

    ----

    0.90.9193820225

    0.930.889039039

    0.940.8981850534

    0.940.92440553

    0.880.8774928775

    0.90.8800769971

    0.910.9133486661

    0.940.9003766816

    0.940.8984147465

    0.930.9055927602

    0.860.9095151515

    0.860.9072620216

    0.890.9306052142

    0.90.9137755102

    0.910.9338607595

    0.90.8991493384

    0.860.8774324324

    0.890.8814423077

    0.90.8826605505

    0.880.8534590009

    0.910.91

    0.920.8802520252

    0.80.8332622601

    0.840.8217391304

    0.870.8724576271

    0.950.8905695612

    0.960.888

    0.920.9028837209

    0.850.8359435798

    0.930.8981683626

    0.890.912946593

    0.90.8867158672

    0.880.9005247813

    0.880.9057115928

    0.850.9039818548

    0.820.854893617

    0.870.9051346154

    0.910.9219374369

    0.950.8816066725

    0.890.9054633205

    0.840.8425024826

    0.880.8765658537

    0.840.8548965517

    &A

    Page &P

    Ship/Capacity

    Prod/Capacity

    Operating Rates

    UGW - Chart (Bk)

    85%

    78%

    UGW - Chart (Bk)

    342

    374

    -32

    Jul

    Production vs. Shipments

    UGW - Pie

    658760

    675755

    666745

    661735

    679725

    676725

    650725

    606725

    541725

    515765

    572765

    584765

    601800

    624810

    662805

    678785

    727780

    764775

    777775

    758770

    685765

    674760

    708755

    701755

    712750

    707745

    687745

    679745

    667745

    618755

    622805

    605815

    598880

    608870

    631870

    657870

    680870

    707870

    720900

    781930

    798900

    786900

    755890

    &A

    Page &P

    Inventories

    CFS (60lb #3) $/Ton

    YTD Inventories

    ---data---

    0.840.8993220339

    0.860.90443769

    0.860.8387362637

    0.880.8677094972

    0.820.8625360231

    0.870.8626062323

    0.910.8463471503

    0.950.8455

    0.970.8107828283

    0.980.9728640777

    0.880.9734078212

    0.870.9572357724

    0.840.8813913043

    0.880.9426625387

    0.880.9469295775

    0.810.850754717

    0.780.8981072555

    0.860.954421365

    0.850.882122093

    0.890.8453760446

    0.940.755978836

    0.910.8396266667

    0.810.866214511

    0.820.8370833333

    0.820.8152463768

    0.840.8243962848

    0.880.8309749304

    0.910.8922562674

    0.940.9107012987

    0.990.8659335038

    0.910.9197587131

    0.970.9284634761

    0.990.9748081841

    0.90.9245231608

    0.850.9204142012

    0.860.9235227273

    0.80.9132743363

    0.870.9310526316

    0.890.9196666667

    0.760.892173913

    0.740.7787076923

    0.890.8618205805

    0.850.7772727273

    &A

    Page &P

    Ship/Capacity

    Prod/Capacity

    Operating Rates

    TOTAL N.A.

    93%

    96%

    $/Ton

    TOTAL N.A.

    502

    488

    14

    Jul

    Production vs. Shipments

    UFS

    207

    220

    237

    244

    250

    233

    233

    249

    244

    212

    208

    221

    245

    218

    220

    233

    250

    251

    259

    252

    241

    215

    210

    200

    215

    227

    230

    231

    245

    252

    232

    257

    240

    288

    208

    207

    240

    252

    235

    248

    269

    260

    274

    &A

    Page &P

    Inventories

    YTD Inventories

    CFS

    0.810.866953125

    0.890.9200519481

    0.870.9055528846

    0.890.9051581509

    0.860.8747911548

    0.930.890962963

    0.890.8878959811

    0.90.934537246

    0.950.9393736018

    1.010.9461020408

    0.960.9495878525

    0.840.8678571429

    0.80.8485488127

    0.920.8571139241

    0.860.8640186916

    0.890.9188425926

    0.850.8841607565

    0.880.88

    0.910.9260352423

    0.930.9135761589

    0.930.9070627803

    0.980.928

    0.950.9308295964

    0.860.8410294118

    0.850.8772839506

    0.880.9084577114

    0.90.9076595745

    0.920.922021978

    0.860.8871783296

    0.90.913876652

    0.920.9162977867

    0.870.8936610879

    0.980.928030303

    0.960.9372781065

    0.960.9328484848

    0.940.9458506224

    0.90.9548319328

    0.940.9607505519

    0.990.9805714286

    0.970.9950695825

    0.930.9706875

    0.950.9324795082

    0.930.9566803279

    &A

    Page &P

    Ship/Capacity

    Prod/Capacity

    Operating Rates

    UGW

    85%

    87%

    UGW

    427

    416

    11

    Jul

    Production vs. Shipments

    CGW

    184

    188

    187

    199

    214

    217

    208

    189

    185

    205

    182

    189

    187

    197

    211

    230

    264

    271

    288

    291

    258

    229

    224

    227

    225

    224

    227

    239

    237

    199

    206

    195

    173

    170

    163

    157

    157

    164

    178

    200

    239

    218

    226

    &A

    Page &P

    Inventories

    YTD Inventories

    Line Charts

    0.790.815483871

    0.820.8293982808

    0.780.7757837838

    0.850.8761538462

    0.80.832

    0.880.8866

    0.950.9329977629

    0.980.9440172786

    0.970.9634311512

    0.980.9757483731

    0.960.9446224256

    0.850.8267412935

    0.920.9156190476

    0.920.9442744063

    0.930.9694811321

    0.870.9157894737

    0.840.9134190231

    0.880.8956743003

    0.910.9468333333

    0.960.9643243243

    1.030.969279476

    0.980.9388053097

    0.950.9522511848

    0.930.9190588235

    0.920.9283257919

    0.950.9477699531

    0.930.9341797753

    0.920.945915493

    0.930.9279287305

    1.030.9468322981

    0.920.9407207207

    0.990.9671218487

    0.990.9515948276

    0.960.951670282

    0.950.9350561798

    0.890.8754778555

    0.860.8579425837

    0.870.8859424084

    0.850.876626506

    0.790.8367204301

    0.820.89995

    0.930.8853089245

    0.850.8724759615

    &A

    Page &P

    Ship/Capacity

    Prod/Capacity

    Operating Rates

    -----

    UGW-Level 1

    Yr/Yr Comparison

    High-Bright9%12%

    GLT Book20%3%

    UGW-Level 1

    342420

    386434

    109.436112.705

    2004

    2005

    Shipments - YTD(July)

    5854

    5459

    15.65818.811

    2004

    2005

    Shipments - Yr/Yr(July)

    364714.401

    445016.299

    496018.362

    576013.445

    476114.255

    515417.016

    585415.658

    525216.041

    495718.319

    495115.062

    545213.21

    474913.456

    535713.953

    575715.451

    676416.11

    736414.087

    577115.732

    596218.561

    545918.811

    &A

    Page &P

    Super-Bright

    High-Bright

    GLT BOOK

    Shipments Trends

    Basis WtBrightnessSmoothness

    Super-Bright>27#>74Super Calendar

    High-Bright>27#64< x27#

  • Current State of the BusinessDeclining Demand trendIncreasing cost over timeGlobal over capacityInability to influence price due to grade/technology substitution

    Lack of profitability within the paper industry has been a mandate for change*Estimate*May 05 Estimate

    *

    Average Profitability for U.S. Printing and Writing Paper Mills

    Profitability defined as (price-cost)/cost. Costs are total costs including depreciation, interest, SG&A, and delivery

  • Industry SegmentationLargeProducersSmallProducersCommodity productsGlobal focusMass marketsSlow responseInternally focusedManufacturing-centric

    Limited capabilitiesSmall, high-cost millsRegional focusFinancially unstableLimited product rangeGlatfelterHigh-value, niche marketsCustomer-centricGlobal focusRelentless cost reductionFinancially strong

    Glatfelters unique focus offers the Company the best of both worlds.

  • What Factors Influence Paper Prices?Economic Growth Paper consumption follows GDP growth. Rising economic growth stimulates increasing demand for paper.

    Exchange Rates Import/Export balance. As US $ strengthens, it becomes easier to export paper to U.S.

    Capacity utilization Operating rates above 91-92% utilization signals price increase. Capacity changes relative to demand changes drive utilization rates.

    Substitute products / technologies High-Bright groundwoods have penetrated freesheet markets. Mail volume, office repro volume being impacted by internet

  • 06 OutlookFactorTrend Price Impact

    DemandU.S. GDP growth is decelerating2005 20063.6% 3.3%Rising CostsEnergy, Fuel, Chemicals increasingPostal Rate HikeFirst class + 4%Fewer mail piecesLower catalog circulationLost share to substitute technology/internetElectric bill payment, e-mailCapacity ChangesExcess capacity is being shut down638M Tons permanently shut in 05

  • The Brightness IssueCommodity white papers are moving from 84 92 brightness, beginning in Sept. 05

    Why? Competition on a global scale Quality distinction Vs Groundwood

  • Impact on Paper BuyersOne choice from commodity producers (illustrates the commodity segment focus)

    Opaque markets will be affectedSubstitute 92 offset for 94 opaqueNew opaque level - 96

  • Glatfelter Response to Brightness InitiativeFocus on customer choice

    Input from book publishing customers indicating a preference for current brightness levels

    Thor plus 92

    Thor 84

    * Demand will determine availability

  • Future ImpactInventory management

    Cost implications of manufacturing brighter paper

    Quality of recovered fiber as input to recycled paper is unknown

    Color consistency in cream papers

  • Environmental Issues Facing Publishers and Paper ManufacturersGrowing interest among large consumers toward environmental leadership

    Large consumers seeking suppliers with similar environmental philosophies

    An increasing preference for certified paper products

    Environmentalist pressure is succeeding

    Most environmental education comes from activist groups

    Environmental issues will become more important

  • Keystone Issues Of Environmentally Preferable PaperReduced consumption

    Restricted fiber sourcingNo old growth / endangered forestsNo U.S. Public landsNo conversion to plantationsNo GMOsNo pesticides, herbicides, fertilizersIncreased recycled content (emphasis on PCW)

    Clean production (emphasis on TCF)

    Forestry practices certified (to FSC standards)

  • US Recovered Paper Life Cycle2003 Data (000s Tons)Recovered Paper 49,253Total Supply of Fiber 98,011Source: AF&PA 2004 U.S. Recovered Paper Statistical HighlightsSources of Recovered FiberUses of Recovered FiberEnd Uses of Recovered Fiber Consumed at Paper MillsConsumed at Paper & Board Mills 33,650Export 13,80549%19%20%7%5%Other 2,200 Imports 399TissuePrinting & WritingRecycled PaperboardContainerboardNewsprint12%25%47%5%10%1% (pkg)

    Sheet2

    s

    LandFill Chart

    33.936.3

    35.438.4

    39.738.1

    42.236.1

    43.134.3

    4437.2

    4538.4

    46.841.2

    47.339.5

    4735.8

    47.637.5

    49.337.7

    Million Tons

    CAGR 99-03: +2%

    CAGR 99-03: -2%

    Recovered Paper

    Paper To Landfill

    More paper is recovered for recycling than is landfilled

    Recovered Stats

    4925348758

    Recovered Paper

    Not Recovered

    Recovered Paper49,253

    Total Supply 98,011

    Sources of Fiber

    TotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotal49253

    2400020009400200097002000340020002700

    49,253

    Old Corrugated

    Filler 1

    Old News Papers

    Filler 2

    Mixed Paper

    Filler 3

    High Grade De-Inked

    Filler 4

    Pulp Substitutes

    TOTAL RECOVERED FIBER

    Old Corrugated

    Old News Papers

    Mixed Paper

    High Grade De-Inked

    Pulp Substitutes

    Data

    LANDFILL ISSUE

    Tons199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003CAGR: 99-03Var 99-03

    Recovered Paper33.935.439.742.243.1444546.847.34747.649.31.3%5%

    Paper To Landfill36.338.438.136.134.337.238.441.239.535.837.537.7-2.2%-8%

    RECOVERED PAPER STATSRecovered PaperNot RecoveredTotal Supply

    200349,25348,75898,011

    50.3%

    Sources of FiberFiller 0Old CorrugatedFiller 1Old News PapersFiller 2Mixed PaperFiller 3High Grade De-InkedFiller 4Pulp Substitutes

    Total49253

    Sources50002400020009400200097002000340020002700

    Sheet2

    s

    LandFill Chart

    33.936.3

    35.438.4

    39.738.1

    42.236.1

    43.134.3

    4437.2

    4538.4

    46.841.2

    47.339.5

    4735.8

    47.637.5

    49.337.7

    Million Tons

    CAGR 99-03: +2%

    CAGR 99-03: -2%

    Recovered Paper

    Paper To Landfill

    More paper is recovered for recycling than is landfilled

    Recovered Stats

    4925348758

    Recovered Paper

    Not Recovered

    Recovered Paper49,253

    Total Supply 98,011

    Sources of Fiber

    TotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotal49253

    2400020009400200097002000340020002700

    24,000

    9,400

    9,700

    3,400

    2,700

    49,253

    Old Corrugated

    Filler 1

    Old News Papers

    Filler 2

    Mixed Paper

    Filler 3

    High Grade De-Inked

    Filler 4

    Pulp Substitutes

    Old Corrugated

    TOTAL RECOVERED FIBER

    Old News Papers

    Mixed Paper

    High Grade De-Inked

    Pulp Substitutes

    uses of recovered fiber 2003 da

    49255TotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotal

    336505000138052000220020003992000

    (000 tons)37% of all fiber consumed by U.S. Paper industry comes from recovered fiber.

    49,255

    Consumed at Paper and Board Mills

    Filler 0

    Export

    Filler 1

    Other

    Filler 2

    Imports

    Filler 3

    consumed of us paperboard mills

    TotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotal33650

    500017892000406120008321200015732200041720003330

    Filler 0

    Printing & writing

    Filler 1

    Tissue

    Filler 2

    Recycled Paperboard

    Filler 3

    Containerboard

    Filler 4

    Packaging

    Filler 5

    Newsprint

    P&W Paper Recovery

    12210TotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotal31016

    Sources50001340200024020002650200022502000100020004730

    Recovered

    Filler 0

    P&W 11%

    Filler 1

    Newsprint

    Filler 2

    Tissue

    Filler 3

    Paperboard

    Filler 4

    Other

    Filler 5

    Exports

    Printing & Writing Papers Recovery

    paper industry

    49255TotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotal98011

    Sources33650500013805200022002000399SourcesSourcesSourcesSourcesSourcesSourcesSourcesSourcesSourcesSourcesSourcesSources

    End productsEnd productsEnd productsEnd productsEnd productsEnd productsEnd productsEnd products200010000.820004000.220007000.920001500.5200010000.520003000.5

    Recovered

    Consumed

    filler 10

    export

    filler 11

    other

    filler 12

    imports

    Filler 0

    P&W

    Filler 1

    Tissue

    Filler 2

    Paperboard

    Filler 3

    Containerboard

    Filler 4

    Packaging

    Filler 5

    Newsprint

    Data

    LANDFILL ISSUE

    Tons199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003CAGR: 99-03Var 99-03

    Recovered Paper33.935.439.742.243.1444546.847.34747.649.31.3%5%

    Paper To Landfill36.338.438.136.134.337.238.441.239.535.837.537.7-2.2%-8%

    RECOVERED PAPER STATSRecovered PaperNot RecoveredTotal Supply

    200349,25348,75898,011

    50.3%

    Sources of FiberFiller 0Old CorrugatedFiller 1Old News PapersFiller 2Mixed PaperFiller 3High Grade De-InkedFiller 4Pulp Substitutes

    Total49253

    Sources50002400020009400200097002000340020002700

    Uses of Recovered Fiber 2003 dataFiller 0ImportsFiller 1OtherFiller 2ExportFiller 3Consumed at Paper and Board Mills

    Total49255

    Sources500039920002200200013805200033650

    Uses of Recovered FiberFiller 0Printing & writingFiller 1TissueFiller 2Recycled PaperboardFiller 3ContainerboardFiller 4PackagingFiller 5Newsprint

    Total33650

    Sources500017892000406120008321200015732200041720003330

    Printing & Writing PaperRecoveredFiller 0P&W 11%Filler 1NewsprintFiller 2TissueFiller 3PaperboardFiller 4OtherFiller 5Exports

    Total1221031016

    Sources50001340200024020002650200022502000100020004730

    U.S. Paper IndustryRecoveredConsumedfiller 10exportfiller 11otherfiller 12importsFiller 0P&WFiller 1TissueFiller 2PaperboardFiller 3ContainerboardFiller 4PackagingFiller 5Newsprint

    Total4925598011

    Sources33650500013805200022002000399

    End products200010000.820004000.220007000.920001500.5200010000.520003000.5

    Sheet2

    s

    LandFill Chart

    33.936.3

    35.438.4

    39.738.1

    42.236.1

    43.134.3

    4437.2

    4538.4

    46.841.2

    47.339.5

    4735.8

    47.637.5

    49.337.7

    Million Tons

    CAGR 99-03: +2%

    CAGR 99-03: -2%

    Recovered Paper

    Paper To Landfill

    More paper is recovered for recycling than is landfilled

    Recovered Stats

    4925348758

    Recovered Paper

    Not Recovered

    Recovered Paper49,253

    Total Supply 98,011

    Sources of Fiber

    TotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotal49253

    2400020009400200097002000340020002700

    24,000

    9,400

    9,700

    3,400

    2,700

    49,253

    Old Corrugated

    Filler 1

    Old News Papers

    Filler 2

    Mixed Paper

    Filler 3

    High Grade De-Inked

    Filler 4

    Pulp Substitutes

    Old Corrugated

    TOTAL RECOVERED FIBER

    Old News Papers

    Mixed Paper

    High Grade De-Inked

    Pulp Substitutes

    uses of recovered fiber 2003 da

    49255TotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotal

    336505000138052000220020003992000

    (000 tons)37% of all fiber consumed by U.S. Paper industry comes from recovered fiber.

    49,255

    399 Imports

    2,200 Other

    Export 13,805

    33,650Consumed at Paper and Board Mills

    Consumed at Paper and Board Mills

    Filler 0

    Export

    Filler 1

    Other

    Filler 2

    Imports

    Filler 3

    consumed of us paperboard mills

    TotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotal33650

    1000178950040615008321500157325004175003330

    33,650

    (000 tons)2003 Data

    Filler 0

    Printing & writing

    Filler 1

    Tissue

    Filler 2

    Recycled Paperboard

    Filler 3

    Containerboard

    Filler 4

    Packaging

    Filler 5

    Newsprint

    P&W Paper Recovery

    12210TotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotal31016

    Sources50001340200024020002650200022502000100020004730

    Recovered

    Filler 0

    P&W 11%

    Filler 1

    Newsprint

    Filler 2

    Tissue

    Filler 3

    Paperboard

    Filler 4

    Other

    Filler 5

    Exports

    Printing & Writing Papers Recovery

    paper industry

    49255TotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotalTotal98011

    Sources33650500013805200022002000399SourcesSourcesSourcesSourcesSourcesSourcesSourcesSourcesSourcesSourcesSourcesSources

    End productsEnd productsEnd productsEnd productsEnd productsEnd productsEnd productsEnd products200010000.820004000.220007000.920001500.5200010000.520003000.5

    Recovered

    Consumed

    filler 10

    export

    filler 11

    other

    filler 12

    imports

    Filler 0

    P&W

    Filler 1

    Tissue

    Filler 2

    Paperboard

    Filler 3

    Containerboard

    Filler 4

    Packaging

    Filler 5

    Newsprint

    Data

    LANDFILL ISSUE

    Tons199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003CAGR: 99-03Var 99-03

    Recovered Paper33.935.439.742.243.1444546.847.34747.649.31.3%5%

    Paper To Landfill36.338.438.136.134.337.238.441.239.535.837.537.7-2.2%-8%

    RECOVERED PAPER STATSRecovered PaperNot RecoveredTotal Supply

    200349,25348,75898,011

    50.3%

    Sources of FiberFiller 0Old CorrugatedFiller 1Old News PapersFiller 2Mixed PaperFiller 3High Grade De-InkedFiller 4Pulp Substitutes

    Total49253

    Sources50002400020009400200097002000340020002700

    Uses of Recovered Fiber 2003 dataFiller 0ImportsFiller 1OtherFiller 2ExportFiller 3Consumed at Paper and Board Mills

    Total49255

    Sources500039920002200200013805200033650

    Uses of Recovered FiberFiller 0Printing & writingFiller 1TissueFiller 2Recycled PaperboardFiller 3ContainerboardFiller 4PackagingFiller 5Newsprint

    Total33650

    Sources1000178950040615008321500157325004175003330

    Printing & Writing PaperRecoveredFiller 0P&W 11%Filler 1NewsprintFiller 2TissueFiller 3PaperboardFiller 4OtherFiller 5Exports

    Total1221031016

    Sources50001340200024020002650200022502000100020004730

    U.S. Paper IndustryRecoveredConsumedfiller 10exportfiller 11otherfiller 12importsFiller 0P&WFiller 1TissueFiller 2PaperboardFiller 3ContainerboardFiller 4PackagingFiller 5Newsprint

    Total4925598011

    Sources33650500013805200022002000399

    End products200010000.820004000.220007000.920001500.5200010000.520003000.5

    Chart1

    4925348758

    Recovered paper

    Total Supply

    Sheet1

    Total Supply

    4875898011

    Recovered paper

    49253

    Sheet1

    Recovered paper

    Total Supply

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • Recovered Fiber Prices(Transaction Prices, May 05)$50-60$50-60$75-80$185-195$310-340Mixed De-Inked News OCC White Ledger Envelope NBSK PulpPaper PCW Pulp(Printed) Cuts$510-560Source: ForestWeb$480-510$/Short TonContaminated Clean

    Chart1

    555605575185310500

    Mixed Paper

    De-Inked PCW Pulp

    News (Printed)

    OCC

    White Ledger

    Envelope Cuts

    NBSK Pulp

    Sheet1

    Paper Prices

    Mixed Paper55

    De-Inked PCW Pulp560

    News (Printed)55

    OCC75

    White Ledger185

    Envelope Cuts310

    NBSK Pulp500

    Sheet1

    Mixed Paper

    News (Printed)

    OCC

    White Ledger

    Envelope Cuts

    NBSK Pulp

    De-Inked PCW Pulp

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • Forestry Certification SystemsAddressing the Issues

    Sustainable forestry initiative (SFI) 144 million acres in US & CAN

    Forestry stewardship council (FSC) 23 million acres in US & CAN

    Canadian standards association (CSA) 64 million acres in CAN

    In U.S., SFI is most prolific, with more than 93 million acres certified. Only 8 million acres of U.S. Forestland are FSC certified

    Different approaches to achieving results:GovernanceAccreditationVerificationTracking & labeling

  • The SFI program is the largest certification program in the U.S. and Canada with over 150 million acres enrolled and 129 million acres independently third party certified. Governed by 15-member Board, mandating:9 Principles13 Objectives34 Performance Measures103 Operational Indicators

    3rd party certification requirement for any program participant wishing to utilize on-product labeling. Certification involves examination of procedures, forestry practices and in-the-field assessments.

    As a condition of membership, every AF&PA member company must manage forests and be certified according to SFI.SFI ProgramAddressing the issues

  • EPP Costs and Availability(Estimates)AvailabilityPlentifulScarceLowHighCostPCWFSCTCFECFSFI

    Chart3

    0.45315050

    TCF

    FSC

    PCW

    ECF

    SFI

    Sheet1

    TCF190.45

    FSC263

    PCW1.521

    ECF8150

    SFI10150

    Sheet1

    TCF

    FSC

    PCW

    ECF

    SFI

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • What Should Publishers Do?Managing the Risk

    Consider ENGO impact on your organization

    Do your homework: talk to suppliers & other stakeholders

    Assess the importance of your organizations reputation or mission

    Consider developing an environmental policy

    Arm yourself with information and create a strategy that is defensible, sustainable and accountableCopyright (2005) Glatfelter

  • Glatfelters Environmental CommitmentWe plant 1.5 million trees per year (4 for every one we harvest)Since 1946 GLT has planted and donated 147 million treesFirst paper mill in North America to achieve ISO 14001 certificationEnergy self-sufficient: Co-generation power (utilize 40% biomass)Environmental partnerships MinergyNew Century Project Investment of $36.8 MillionOzone bleachingOxygen delignificationElemental Chlorine Free (ECF)

    All Glatfelter-owned forest lands are 3rd party certified to SFI standards Glatfelter does not utilize fiber derived from ancient or endangered forests

  • Glatfelter Product SolutionsAll Neenah papers include recycled content

  • Question & Answer