manpower employment outlook survey: united states - q2, 2005

Upload: manpowerus

Post on 30-May-2018

220 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    1/23

    2nd Quarter 2005

    Manpower Employment Outlook SurveyUnited States

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    2/23

    1

    Contents

    United States Employment Outlook 2

    Regional Comparisons

    Sector Comparisons

    Global Employment Outlook 14

    International Comparisons Americas

    International Comparisons Asia Pacific

    International Comparisons Europe

    About the Survey 20

    About Manpower 21

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    3/23

    2

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    The United States Employment Outlook

    Increase Decrease No Change Dont KnowNet Employment

    Outlook

    Seasonally

    Adjusted

    % % % % % %

    1st Quarter 2005 24 10 59 7 14 21

    2nd Quarter 2005 30 7 58 5 23 21

    2nd Quarter 2004 28 6 62 4 22 20

    3rd Quarter 2004 30 6 59 5 24 20

    4th Quarter 2004 28 7 60 5 21 20

    When seasonal variations are removed from the data,

    the Net Employment Outlook is the same as it was for

    the first three months of the year and is similar to last

    year at this time. In fact, this marks the fifth consecutive

    quarter in which employers have reported hiring

    expectations that rival those last seen in the beginning

    months of 2001.

    Throughout this report, we use the term Net

    Employment Outlook. This figure is derived by taking

    the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in

    hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage

    of employers that expect to see a decrease in

    employment at their location in the next quarter.

    Nearly 16,000 interviews have been conducted with

    employers across the United States to measure

    anticipated employment trends between April and June

    2005. All participants were asked, How do you

    anticipate total employment at your location to change

    in the three months to the end of June 2005 as

    compared to the current quarter?

    Of the U.S. employers that were surveyed, 30% plan

    to add staff in the second quarter, while 7% expect to

    reduce their payrolls. Fifty-eight percent of the hiring

    managers polled anticipate no change in staff levels

    for the coming quarter, and 5% are unsure of their

    hiring plans.

    Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook Seasonally AdjustedSeasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    4/23

    3

    Net Employment

    Outlook

    Seasonally

    AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

    % % % %%%

    Construction 41 5 49 365 24

    Education 19 6 71 13 144

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 29 5 60 6 24 24

    Manufacturing Durables 33 8 54 5 25 21

    Manufacturing Non-Durables 28 7 59 6 1921

    Mining 31 3 65 1 2728

    Public Administration 28 6 60 22 176

    Services 29 5 60 6 24 20

    Transportation & Public Utilities 26 7 61 6 19 19

    Wholesale & Retail Trade 29 8 57 6 21 21

    At the overall national level, the margin of error on the data is +/ 0.8%.

    Net Employment SeasonallyIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

    Outlook Adjusted

    % % % %

    Midwest

    Northeast 26 8 60 6 18 17

    31 6 57 6 25 22

    29 6 61 4 23 19

    South

    West 32 7 54 7 25 23

    % %

    According to the seasonally adjusted survey results,

    employers in the majority of industry sectors polled plan

    to keep hiring activity relatively consistent with the first

    period of 2005. These sectors include Construction,

    Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/

    Public Utilities, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Services

    and Mining.

    Education and Public Administration employers intend

    to take on more staff in the second quarter, while those

    in Durable Goods Manufacturing and Wholesale/Retail

    Trade anticipate a slower hiring pace.

    The employment outlook in seven of the 10 industry

    sectors is brighter than it was a year ago, particularly

    among Public Administration and Mining employers.

    Employers in the Finance/Insurance/Real Estate,

    Education, Durable Goods Manufacturing and

    Transportation/Public Utilities sectors also envision

    better year-over-year job prospects. Hiring in the Non-

    Durable Goods Manufacturing and Services sectors is

    expected to stay the same, while a decline in levels is

    expected among Construction and Wholesale/Retail

    Trade employers.

    Job seekers are likely to find that the West offers the

    most promising job picture for the April June period.

    For the fifth consecutive quarter, employers in the

    Northeast intend to hire at a more conservative pace

    than the other regions.

    Little change is in store for second quarter hiring activity

    across the four U.S. regions, according to the seasonally

    adjusted survey results. Employers plan to keep job

    levels consistent with last quarter and a year ago. The

    most significant variation in regional hiring is in the West

    where employers plan to offer slightly stronger job

    prospects than last year.

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    5/23

    4

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    Regional Comparisons

    Midwest

    Net Employment

    Outlook

    Seasonally

    AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

    %%%%% %

    All Industries 29 6 61 4 23 19

    Construction 45 6 45 4 39 18

    Education 612 79 3 6 7

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 26 4 68 2 22 22

    Manufacturing Durables 33 7 57 3 26 22

    Manufacturing Non-Durables 28 6 62 4 22 20

    Mining 20 0 80 0 2220

    Public Administration 28 7 61 4 21 10

    Services 28 5 64 3 23 19

    Transportation & Public Utilities 25 637 5 18 17

    Wholesale & Retail Trade 30 6 60 4 24 22

    Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook Seasonally AdjustedSeasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio,

    South Dakota, Wisconsin.

    Twenty-nine percent of employers polled in the Midwest

    anticipate an increase in job opportunities, while 6%

    foresee a decrease. This yields a Net Employment

    Outlook of 23%. According to the seasonally adjusted

    data, the hiring pace is likely to hold steady with

    employer estimates identical to those reported last

    quarter and a year ago.

    Stability is also apparent when hiring intentions are

    broken down by sector. Seven of the industries

    surveyed expect little change in staffing plans compared

    to last quarter, including Construction, Non-Durable

    Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,

    Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate,

    Services and Public Administration. Education

    employers report a slightly more positive outlook than

    the January to March period, while those in Mining and

    Durable Goods Manufacturing foresee a mild decrease

    in employment activity.

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    6/23

    5

    Net Employment

    Outlook

    Seasonally

    AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know

    % % % % % %

    All Industries 26 8 60 6 1718

    Construction 33 564 7 29 20

    Education 21 5 71 3 16 18

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 29 4 59 8 25 23

    Manufacturing Durables 30 10 54 6 20 18

    Manufacturing Non-Durables 26 9 17 16

    Mining 25 0 25 24

    Public Administration 22 14 8 6

    Services 24 6 18 15

    Transportation & Public Utilities 23 6

    58

    75

    56

    64

    65

    7

    0

    8

    6

    6 17 18

    Wholesale & Retail Trade 24 12 57 7 12 15

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    Northeast

    The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,

    Rhode Island, Vermont.

    In the Northeast, 26% of employers surveyed anticipate

    an increase in payrolls for the second quarter of 2005,

    while 8% plan to reduce staff levels. This translates to

    a Net Employment Outlook of 18%. When seasonalvariations are removed from the data, the results show

    that employers have expressed little variation in hiring

    plans over the last year. In fact, second quarter hiring

    intentions are exactly the same as they were for first

    quarter and a year ago. The hiring pace in the

    Northeast continues to lag the other regions, a trend

    that began in the second quarter of 2004.

    Job seekers in Transportation/Public Utilities, Education

    and Mining are likely to have a more positive experience

    than they did in the beginning months of the year. Hiring

    is expected to remain unchanged in the Durable GoodsManufacturing, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Public

    Administration sectors, and is expected to decline in

    the Construction, Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,

    Services and Wholesale/Retail Trade sectors.

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    7/23

    6

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    South

    Net EmploymentOutlook

    SeasonallyAdjusted

    Increase Decrease No Change Dont Know

    % % % % % %

    All Industries 31 6 57 6 25 22

    Construction 40 496 5 34 25

    Education 23 5 67 5 18 20

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 31 6 54 9 25 25

    Manufacturing Durables 35 9 50 6 26 22

    Manufacturing Non-Durables 29 6 59 6 23 21

    Mining 35 4 61 0 31 31

    Public Administration 26 643 7 23 19

    Services 31 5 57 7 26 22

    Transportation & Public Utilities 25 636 6 19 19

    Wholesale & Retail Trade 31 7 56 6 24 24

    Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook Seasonally AdjustedSeasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,

    Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.

    Of the employers surveyed in the South, 31% of

    employers foresee an increase in employment activity,

    and 6% expect a decline in their payrolls.The result is a

    Net Employment Outlook of 25%. Seasonally adjusteddata reveals that employment prospects in the South

    are among the strongest in the nation, just slightly

    behind the West. As is the case across the four regions

    surveyed, employer confidence in the South has

    remained consistent for the last year.

    Quarter over quarter, employers are mixed in their hiring

    intentions.The largest increases are expected in Education

    and Mining. In fact, Mining employers havent been this

    optimistic about hiring since the early 1980s. Employersare slightly more confident in Non-Durable Goods

    Manufacturing and Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, while

    those in Transportation/Public Utilities, Wholesale/Retail

    Trade, Services and Public Administration report hiring

    intentions consistent with last quarter. Construction and

    Durable Goods Manufacturers are less likely to put up

    help-wanted signs in the spring months than they were

    earlier in the year.

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    8/23

    7

    West

    Net EmploymentOutlook

    SeasonallyAdjusted

    Increase Decrease No Change Dont Know

    % % % % % %

    All Industries 32 7 54 7 25 23

    Construction 45 2 47 6 43 31

    Education 20 8 67 5 12 13

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 32 5 56 7 27 28

    Manufacturing Durables 32 9 51 8 23 20

    Manufacturing Non-Durables 30 9 54 7 21 18

    Mining 20 0 73 7 20 20

    Public Administration 35 5 53 7 30 27

    Services 33 6 55 6 27 22

    Transportation & Public Utilities 30 8 56 6 22 26

    Wholesale & Retail Trade 30 9 54 7 21 21

    Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook Seasonally AdjustedSeasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

    -50

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon,

    Utah, Washington, Wyoming.

    In the West, 32% of employers surveyed plan to add

    staff and 7% intend to reduce headcount, resulting in

    a Net Employment Outlook of 25%. Employers in the

    West report the strongest hiring pace among the fourregions surveyed, according to seasonally adjusted

    data. Hiring plans are consistent with those reported

    for the beginning months of 2005 and show mild

    improvement from last year at this time.

    The largest gains in employer confidence, compared to

    first quarter, are seen in Construction and Public

    Administration. In the Construction sector, this is only

    the fourth time in survey history that employer optimismhas reached this level and the first time since the late

    1970s. Staffing plans are expected to be relatively

    consistent with last quarter in Transportation/Public

    Utilities, Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,

    Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate

    and Services. Job seekers may have a tougher time

    finding employers that are hiring in Durable Goods

    Manufacturing, Education and Mining.

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    9/23

    8

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    Sector Comparisons

    Some variation in second quarter hiring plans is revealed

    among the 10 industry sectors on a seasonally adjusted

    basis. Mining employers express the most optimistic

    hiring intentions again this quarter, as was the case in the

    first period of 2005. A strong hiring pace is expected in

    Construction, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Durable

    Goods Manufacturing, Services and Wholesale/Retail

    Trade. Education and Public Administration employers are

    least optimistic about second quarter job prospects,

    compared with other sectors.

    Construction

    Education

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

    Manufacturing Durables

    Manufacturing Non-Durables

    Mining

    Public Administration

    Services

    Transportation & Public Utilities

    Wholesale & Retail Trade

    24

    24

    1314

    0 40

    2827

    2217

    24

    19

    20

    2121

    2521

    21

    19

    19

    24

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    36

    5 10 15 20 25 30 35

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    10/23

    9

    Construction

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

    -20-15

    -10-505

    10152025303540

    According to seasonally adjusted data, Construction is

    expected to be a bright spot when it comes to hiring

    during the second quarter. The employment outlook is

    among the most positive of the 10 industry sectorssurveyed. Employer confidence levels are identical to

    those reported last quarter and down slightly from a

    year ago.

    Job seekers in the West are most likely to find

    employers in a hiring mode, only the second time in

    13 quarters that the South has not held this distinction.

    Those seeking employment in the Midwest will find thefewest companies looking to increase headcount.

    Education

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    Employer confidence in the Education sector continues

    to fluctuate. After two quarters of declines, employer

    optimism about hiring is up slightly from first quarter,

    according to seasonally adjusted data. A more notable

    increase in hiring estimates is evident in the year-over-

    year comparison.

    For the second quarter, employers in the South are most

    confident about adding staff. Employers in the Midwest

    anticipate slower hiring than the other three regions.

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    11/23

    10

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    Manufacturing Durable Goods

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    For the first time in more than a year, employer

    confidence in Durable Goods Manufacturing slipped,

    according to seasonally adjusted survey results. Hiring

    plans are slightly less optimistic compared with first

    quarter. However, employers do expect a minimal

    improvement in staffing plans from last year at this time.

    For the April June period, hiring intentions are strongest

    in the Midwest and South and weakest in the Northeast.

    Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 050

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    When seasonal variations are removed from the data,

    hiring activity in Finance/Insurance/Real Estate is

    expected to be among the strongest of the 10 industry

    sectors surveyed again this quarter. The employmentoutlook is steady, with employers planning to hire at the

    same pace as last quarter. Job prospects are more

    positive than last year at this time.

    Employers in the West are most likely to add staff,

    a trend that dates back to the first quarter of 2004.

    Hiring plans for the Midwest are more conservative.

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    12/23

    11

    Mining

    Another quarter of healthy hiring is expected in Mining,

    which posted the strongest employment outlook

    among the industries surveyed, according to seasonally

    adjusted data. Hiring plans are similar to first quarter

    expectations, which reached levels last seen in the early

    1980s. The employment picture has improved

    dramatically since last year at this time.

    Employers in the South are most optimistic about job

    gains, and those in the West are considerably more

    reserved.

    Manufacturing Non-Durable Goods

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 050

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers expect to hire at a

    steady pace from April to June, according to seasonally

    adjusted data. Hiring plans are consistent with survey

    results from last quarter and last year at this time.In fact, there has been little variation in employer

    confidence levels for the last year.

    Job prospects are most promising in the South, while

    the hiring pace is expected to be slower in the

    Northeast than in other areas.

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    13/23

    12

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    Public Administration

    When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the

    hiring landscape in Public Administration is likely to continue

    to improve. Job seekers can anticipate more government

    hiring compared with last quarter. Employer confidence inthe Public Administration sector has grown more slowly

    over the past year than in other sectors, but has made

    steady progress in recent quarters. The second quarter job

    forecast is considerably brighter than last year at this time.

    By a wide margin, employers in the West are most

    optimistic about adding to their payrolls. Employers in the

    Northeast foresee the slowest hiring pace in this sector.

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    Services

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    The seasonally adjusted survey results suggest that

    another quarter of steady hiring is in store for the

    Services sector. Hiring plans parallel those reported

    last quarter and a year ago. In fact, employer

    confidence levels have not wavered since the second

    quarter of 2004.

    As was the case in the first quarter survey, job

    seekers in the South and West are likely to have solid

    employment prospects, while those in the Northeast

    are expected to find fewer companies adding to payroll.

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    14/23

    13

    Wholesale & Retail Trade

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-15-10

    -505

    10152025

    3035

    Transportation & Public Utilities

    Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

    89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    When seasonal variations are removed from the data,

    hiring intentions for the Transportation/Public Utilities

    sector are relatively consistent with those reported over

    the last year. Employers foresee a hiring pace that issimilar to last quarter, and up slightly from a year ago.

    For the sixth consecutive quarter, the Transportation/

    Public Utilities employment outlook is strongest in the

    West. Employers in the Midwest are least optimistic

    about staff increases.

    The story in Wholesale/Retail Trade remains the same

    as it has been for the last year steady hiring.

    Employers are only slightly less optimistic about hiring

    than they were last quarter and last year, according to

    seasonally adjusted data.

    The regional hiring outlook is unchanged from last

    quarter. Employers in the South are most optimistic

    about increasing staff levels, while those in the

    Northeast have the most conservative hiring intentions.

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    15/2314

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    Global Employment OutlookEuropean hiring expectations have improved over

    last quarter in the majority of the countries surveyed;

    however, most outlooks are weaker compared to last

    year. In Germany, hiring activity improved on both a

    year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis, while

    employers in the Netherlands reported their first

    negative hiring expectations.

    In the U.S., Canada and the UK, seasonally adjusted

    results reveal positive hiring intentions, although

    UK employers reported quarter-over-quarter and

    year-over-year decreases in employment prospects.

    Both U.S. and Canadian employers are anticipating

    continued stable hiring activity.

    Over 40,000 employers have been interviewed across

    21 countries and territories to measure anticipated

    employment trends between April and June 2005.

    Employers in 19 of 21 countries and territories expect

    positive hiring activity in the coming quarter, and those

    in 11 of 19 countries reported stronger hiring intentions

    compared to last year at this time. This quarter marks

    the first time that the survey has been conducted with

    employers across China and Taiwan, and the results

    indicate strong hiring activity is ahead for the second

    quarter in both markets. Employers in Australia, Germany,

    Japan, Mexico and Norway reported their most optimistic

    outlooks to date, while the strongest second quarter

    hiring intentions of the 21 countries and territories

    surveyed were reported in Japan and Taiwan.

    Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change

    Americas Q1 2005 to Q2 2005

    Canada 22 (-1)1

    Mexico 10

    United States

    Quarter 1 2005

    %

    4 (19)1

    12

    14 (21)1

    Quarter 2 2005

    %

    26 (18)1

    22

    23 (21)1 9 (0)1

    Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change

    Europe Q1 2005 to Q2 2005

    Austria 1

    Belgium 2

    France 0

    Germany 5

    Ireland 0

    Netherlands -5

    Norway 7

    Spain 5

    UK 1 (-6)1

    Italy

    Quarter 1 2005

    %

    1

    5

    2

    -6

    15

    3

    12

    5

    14 (18)1

    -1

    Quarter 2 2005

    %

    2

    7

    2

    -1

    15

    -2

    19

    10

    Sweden 45 9

    15 (12)1

    3 4

    1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity for Canada, the UK

    and the United States.

    Net Employment Outlook

    Asia Pacific

    Australia 4

    Quarter 2 2005%

    21

    35

    30

    Quarter 1 2005%

    17

    China N/A28

    13

    30

    Qtr on Qtr Change

    Q1 2005 to Q2 2005

    1926Hong Kong -7

    Japan 22

    New Zealand 0

    Singapore 128 4

    Taiwan 35_ N/A

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    16/23

    15

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Line shows seasonally adjusted data.

    International Comparisons Americas

    Over 21,000 interviews have been conducted across

    the United States, Canada and Mexico to measure

    anticipated employment trends between April and

    June 2005. The overall regional outlook is positive,with employers in all three countries anticipating solid

    hiring activity for the quarter ahead.

    Employers in Mexico are reporting their most optimistic

    outlook to date, posting considerable year-over-year

    and quarter-over-quarter improvements. Based on

    seasonally adjusted data, hiring activity in the UnitedStates and Canada is expected to continue at the same

    strong and stable pace seen over the last four quarters.

    Canada

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Mexico

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Line shows seasonally adjusted data.

    USA

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    17/23

    16

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    International Comparisons Asia Pacific

    Over 9,300 interviews have been conducted across

    Asia Pacific to measure anticipated employment trends

    between April and June 2005.

    Hiring activity in Asia Pacific is expected to be robust

    for the second quarter of the year. Employers in Taiwan,

    Japan, New Zealand and China reported the most

    positive hiring intentions of all of the countries surveyed

    in Asia Pacific, and among the 21 countries and

    territories surveyed internationally. Following this positive

    trend, Australian employers reported their most optimistic

    hiring intentions to date, while employers in both HongKong and Singapore reported improved hiring intentions

    compared to last year at this time.

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Australia

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Hong Kong50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Japan

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    This country joined the survey in Q2 2005.

    2003 2004 2005

    China

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    18/23

    17

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    This country joined the survey in Q2 2005.

    2003 2004 2005

    Taiwan

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    2003 2004 2005

    Singapore50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    This country joined the survey in Q2 2004.

    New Zealand

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    19/23

    18

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    International Comparisons Europe

    Over 10,000 interviews have been conducted across

    11 European nations to measure anticipated employment

    trends between April and June 2005. Within the majority

    of the labor markets surveyed, employers reportedimproved hiring expectations compared to the previous

    quarter. However, compared to last year, hiring intentions

    were weaker in seven of 11 countries.

    Irish and Norwegian employers anticipate the most

    buoyant hiring activity for the second quarter, with

    Norwegian employers reporting their most upbeat hiring

    intentions since the survey began in the country.

    Meanwhile, employers in the Netherlands reported their

    first negative Net Employment Outlook. German

    employers, although still anticipating negative hiringactivity for the quarter ahead, are the most optimistic

    they have been, with the data revealing both quarter-

    over-quarter and year-over-year improvements.

    Employers in France reported stable hiring

    expectations, while the seasonally adjusted figures for

    the UK indicate a moderate decrease in hiring activity

    from the previous quarter.

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    2003 2004 2005

    Austria50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Belgium

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    France50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Germany

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    20/23

    19

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Ireland50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

    2003 2004 2005

    Italy

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Netherlands50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Norway

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Spain50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    2003 2004 2005

    Sweden

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    Line shows seasonally adjusted data.

    2003 2004 2005

    UK

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    21/23

    20

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey USA

    The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted

    quarterly to measure employers intentions to increase or

    decrease the number of employees in their workforce during

    the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than

    40 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employmentactivity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:

    Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area

    of focus.

    Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the

    only forward-looking survey, asking employers to forecast

    employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys

    and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what

    occurred in the past.

    Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derived

    all of its information from a single question.

    Independent:The survey is conducted with a representative

    sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it

    is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from

    Manpowers customer base.

    Robust:The survey is based on interviews with more than

    40,000 public and private employers across 21 countries and

    territories to measure anticipated employment trends each

    quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across

    specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

    Methodology

    The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using

    a validated methodology, in accordance with the higheststandards in market research. The research team for the 21

    countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted

    includes Manpowers Market Intelligence team; the Organization

    Research and Analysis Division of Right Management

    Consultants an independent operating division of Manpower

    Inc.; NOP World and Grupo IDM. The survey has been

    structured to be representative of each national economy. The

    margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not

    greater than +/- 4.0%.

    In the United States, the national survey is conducted by

    Manpowers North American Market Intelligence Team and

    includes 16,000 employers. With this number of interviews, the

    margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.

    Survey Question

    All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the

    same question, How do you anticipate total employment at your

    location to change in the three months to the end of June 2005

    as compared to the current quarter?

    Net Employment Outlook

    Throughout this report, we use the term Net Employment

    Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of

    employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and

    subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to

    see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter.

    The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

    Seasonal Adjustment

    Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for

    Canada, the United States and United Kingdom to provide

    additional insight into the survey data. These adjustments make

    it possible to review the data without the employment

    fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each year, thus

    providing a clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower

    intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other

    countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled.

    History of the Survey

    1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

    Survey launched in the United States and Canada.

    1966 Manpowers UK operation launches the equivalent of the

    United States survey, naming the report the Quarterly

    Survey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts thesame forward-looking research format as the United States

    survey and is the first of its kind in Europe.

    1976 2nd generation of Manpowers Employment Outlook

    Survey launched in the United States and Canada.

    Research methodology is updated to evolve with

    advancements in the field of market research.

    2002 Manpower UKs Quarterly Survey of Employment

    Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research

    methodology. Manpowers operations in Mexico and

    Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.

    2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

    Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total 18

    countries and territories worldwide: Australia, Austria,

    Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland,

    Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore,

    Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States.

    2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.

    2005 Manpower operations in China and Taiwan launch the

    Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.

    About the Survey

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    22/23

    21

    About Manpower Inc.Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the employment

    services industry, offering customers a continuum of services to

    meet their needs throughout the employment and business cycle.

    The company specializes in permanent, temporary and contract

    recruitment; employee assessment; training; career transition;

    organizational consulting services and professional financial

    services. Manpowers worldwide network of 4,300 offices in

    67 countries and territories enables the company to meet the

    needs of its 400,000 customers per year, including small and

    medium size enterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the

    worlds largest multinational corporations. The focus of

    Manpowers work is on raising productivity through improved

    quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling customers to

    concentrate on their core business activities. In addition to the

    Manpower brand, the company operates under the brand names

    of Right Management Consultants, Jefferson Wells, Elan and

    Brook Street. More information on Manpower Inc. is available at

    www.manpower.com.

    In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range of

    HR services, in addition to providing administrative, industrial

    and contact center personnel. Under the Manpower

    Professional brand, the company places contract professionals

    on assignment in areas such as information technology,

    scientific, finance, engineering and telecommunications. More

    information about Manpowers US operation can be found at

    www.us.manpower.com.

  • 8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2005

    23/23

    Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 5321

    Tel: 414 961 1000

    www.us.manpower.com