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IFOAM August 25, 2000

«Our supermarket shelves: What happens after what comes next?»

Dr. David Bosshart Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute

Rüschlikon/Zurich

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1. "Biofoods" (organic, natural foods) are a trend in the retailing and restaurant business: not more than that, but also not less.

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Success factors:

The transition from mass merchandising to masscustomization / personalized experiences:• credible loyalty programs (away from discount systems)• long term personalized customer relationships (power of

the Internet)• a complex value proposition (food means not just

calories and logistics) => pleasure, fantasy, identity, etc.• the store experience is decisive (not ads / PR: "If it

doesn't happen in the store, it doesn't happen nowhere")

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2. Why our knowledge based economy will be a rich source of new myths: More dependence on scientific knowhow = more dependence on myths.

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"More and more we know less and less“ (Daniel Bell).

Science creates uncertainy, myths provide reassurance.

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A g r a r i a nS o c i e t y

I n d us t r i a lS o c i e t y

K n ow l e d g eS o c i e t y

b a s i c r e t a i l ingp r in c i p l e s

a v a i la b i l i ty o fg o o d s

m a s s m e r c h a nd i s i n gs t a nd a r d i z a t i o n

m a s sc u s t o m i z a t io n /p e r s o n a le x p e r i e nc e

f o c us o fc o mm u n ic a t i o n

n a t u r e /l aw s o f n a t u r e

i d e o lo g i e s / p r o g r es s /a p o c a l y p s e

m y t h s / s t o r i e s &o p i n i o n s

o r g a n i z a t i o nm o de l

d i v i n eo r g a n i z a t i o n

h i e r a r c h i c a lo r g a n i z a t i o n g u i de db y hu m an w i l l

g l o ba l n e t w o r k s /i n t e r e s t g r o u p s

c u s t o m e r d e p e nd e n t o nw h a t a n a l -m ig h t y n a t u r ec a n d e l i v e r

d e p e nd e n t o n w h a tr e t a i le r s a n d b r a n dm a nu f a c t u r e r sd e l i v e r

s e l f -p r o g r amm i n gt he i r o w n w a n t s

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3. Converging markets drive innovationand bring us a new health culture: self-programming– Converging knowledge– Converging products– Converging industries

Critical competitive activity is now where markets intersect

Source: PWC-Consumer Interface

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The future of food will be shaped by a combination of factors:

1) borderless scientific research (cross-fertilization of leading-edge sciences)

2) intensified aesthetics (design for taste, emotions, sensuality)

3) efficient marketing communications (product positioning with radical customer orientation)

4) hyperpragmatic high-tech dedication (risk orientation inevitable)

5) nostalgia for local, small-scale (organic) farming

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Revenue opportunities in 10 key product segments

1. Functional/fortified food and drinks2. Low-calorie and light products3. Anti-allergenic food and drinks4. Vegetarian and meatless meals5. Fresh and lightly processed food and drinks6. Convenience and instant food and drinks7. Ethnic and exotic food and drinks8. Indulgent food and drinks9. Character based food and drinks

source: datamonitor/consumer goods analysis

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New health culture:

A knowledge-based economy and society will be driven by high-tech innovations that enable customers to program their bodies, their nutritionand their personal care to suit their own individual preferences.

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4. Health-consciousness rather than environmental awareness is the primary motive for choosing biofood. Administrators of "biolabels” are firmly in the environmentalist camp, while customers are motivated by concern for their own health.

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5. Biofoods will never capture more than 5-10% of the market, as long as the overriding objectives of the”bio” movement(s) are unclear.

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6. The battle for the health-conscious consumer – will functional food be the winner?

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7. On the burden of proof, the tables are turning:Biofoods lived off its reservoir of consumer trust for years. But the time is near when that won’t be enough to satisfy the customer. To win the trust of wider customer segments / communities, biofood will have to deliver scientific proof of both its utility and its safety. The burden of proof on both counts will rest with biofood in the future.