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Report onNational Public Opinion Survey – September 2013

Submitted to:

Daily Prothom Alo

CA Bhaban

100 Kazi Nazrul Islam Avenue

Karwan Bazar, Dhaka-1215

Submitted by:

Org-Quest Research LimitedUnique Trade Centre (UTC), Level – 6

8 Panthapath, Dhaka-1215

October 3, 2013



Salient Findings

Introduction:

On completion of nearly 5 years in power by the incumbent government and keeping theforthcoming general election in mind, Prothom Alo, the leading daily newspaper of the

country, initiated the 5th round of opinion survey with a view to rate the government’s

performance on some critical issues, and measure public perception on current burning and

election issues. The survey was conducted among 5000 (five thousand) nationally

representative sample of voters covering all 7 divisions, urban and rural areas and both male

and female population.

Findings:

Governance issues: The first 2 years of its rule was perhaps the best period under the present

government. Findings over the last 5 years show that its performance started off with a highnote and continued for a couple years, but declined sharply in the 3 rd year and continued

around the same level thereafter. The following graph summarizes indicator-wise

performance (depicting positive response only):

Positive Response on Governance Issues

Voting intent: BNP was leading AL with a wide margin based on voting intent. If the

national election was held today, BNP would pull 50.3% votes, up by more than 6 percentage

points from the last round of survey, distantly followed by AL, accounting for 36.5%, gaining

by about 2 percentage points from the previous round. The trend of voting intent shows a

widening gap between BNP and AL with the passage of time. Compared with the last round,

the main loser was JP (Ershad) going down from 11.8% in the last round to 7% in this round,



losing mainly to BNP and partly to AL. JI also lost some grounds as it went down from 3.2%

to 2.9%, whose supporters are in general considered diehard.

Ability of the EC to hold national election: Like the previous round, the country appeared

more or less equally divided on this issue. When asked if the EC has the capability of holding

the next general election in a fair and neutral manner, 48% responded affirmatively and 51%opined otherwise.

Election time government: The country appears to have a united view about the election

time government as a staggering majority of 82% respondents voiced in favor of holding the

election under a neutral government, which was 90% in April round this year, down by 8

percentage points. It may be worth noting here that in the two previous national public

opinion polls conducted in December 2011 and December 2012 election under caretaker

government was preferred by 73% and 76% respondents respectively.

Need for army assistance in holding election: Almost the whole country felt the need for

army assistance. Like in the last round, nearly 90% felt that armed forces’ assistance wasessential for holding a free and fair election.

Prospect of a consensus between AL and BNP about election time government: There

appears to be an increased optimism amongst the voters compared with the last round in this

regard as positive response in favor of a consensus went up from 34% in 2012 to 45% in this

round. However, in case no consensus is arrived, a state of anarchy was perceived to be the

most likely thing to happen. As a very high majority of respondents (73%) were

apprehending a state anarchy, 14% foresaw a martial law or army backed government and

12% predicted a one sided election.

Acceptability of election without BNP’s participation: Election without the participation

of BNP is most unlikely to be acceptable. When asked if the election would be acceptable

without the participation of BNP, more than 90% replied negatively, and only 7% thought

otherwise. Even among those who intend to vote for AL, 83% opined that the election will

not be acceptable if BNP does not participate.

War crimes trial: Almost the whole country is with the government for the trial of crimes

against humanity committed during the liberation war of 1971. However, reservations seem

to exist with the process of trial.



1. Study Background and Methodology

1.1. Background: On completion of nearly 5 years in power by the incumbent government

and keeping the forthcoming general election in mind, Prothom Alo, the leading dailynewspaper of the country, initiated the 5th round of opinion survey with a view to rate

the government’s performance on some critical issues, and measure public perception

on current burning and election issues.

1.2. Target Respondents: Adult males and females (18 years and above) who were enlisted

as voters.

1.3. Geographical Coverage: The survey was nationally representative, covering 30

districts across all the 7 administrative divisions in both urban and rural areas.

1.4. Sample Size: n=5000, distributed amongst male & females in urban – rural areas

proportionate to population as shown below.

Area Type Male Female Total

Urban 617 633 1250

Rural 1879 1871 3750

Total 2496 2504 5000

1.5. Sampling Technique: The survey was conducted by adopting multi-stage stratified

systematic random sampling technique to make the study as representative as possible.

Estimated Margin of Error was: ± 1.39. The survey strictly adhered to the

internationally accepted methodology and ethical standard as per the guideline of

European Society for Opinion and Market Research (ESOMAR). As a member of

ESOMAR, Org-Quest Research Limited complies with the ICC/ ESOMAR

International Marketing and Social Research Practices.

Systematic random sampling technique was followed to locate and interview target

respondents. All seven divisions were considered. In each division 3 to 6 districts(primary sampling units - PSU), depending on the size, were selected keeping

geographical dispersion in mind. Having selected PSUs, required number of secondary

sampling units or SSU (municipal ward in urban area and village in rural area) and

sampling/starting points (SP) were selected randomly based on electoral roll. Around

each randomly selected starting point/cluster, a predetermined number of households

were contacted and interviewed; leaving four intervening households in between

(interviewed every fifth household).

The Right Hand Rule was used for selection of households other than the Starting Point

(SP). This rule states that after reaching the SP, the investigator will have to go to the

households falling on the right hand side from the starting point. Not more than 5interviews were conducted in each starting point.



Within each selected household, names of all household members were listed down in

descending order of their age. Serial numbers were provided to all members aged 18

years and above and enlisted as a voter in descending order of age i.e. starting with the

oldest member of the family and going down to the youngest member who has

completed 18 years. In case of more than one eligible member in a household, one ofthe adults was selected randomly by using KISH Table1 for interview. Only one

member in selected household was interviewed.

1.6. Fieldwork Period: September, 2013

1Kish Table: Use of Kish Table (a randomized selection method) helps selecting the right

respondents from the right household with multiple eligible respondents. The Kish Table was

developed by a famous statistician named L. Kish.



2. Detailed Findings

2.1. Rating of the Government Performance Indicators:

In this round, unlike the previous 4 surveys, only four critical indicators were considered formeasuring the government’s performance. These include ‘direction of the country’, ‘overall

running of the government’, ‘law & order situation’ and ‘the state of corruption’. The first 2

years of its rule was perhaps the best period under the present government. Findings over the

last 5 years show that its performance started off with a high note and continued for a couple

years, but declined sharply in the 3rd year and continued around the same level thereafter. The

following graph summarizes indicator-wise performance (depicting positive response only):

Positive Response on Governance Issues



Indicator-wise performance rating can be narrated as below:

Direction of the country: The country is not moving in the right direction. As can be seen

from the following graph, until the end of second year a substantial majority (61%) thought

that the country was moving in the right direction, which turned the other way round at theend of 3rd year when nearly 60% opined that the country was moving in the wrong direction,

and continued more or less at the same level as no significant deterioration was noticed in the

following 2 years. It may be worth mentioning here that at the end of first year of its rule an

overwhelming majority of 70% thought that the country was moving in the right direction

indicating a high level of satisfaction with the government performance until then.

In which Direction the Country is Moving

Overall running of the government: There is no good news about overall management of

the country either as a downward trend is observed in this regard, which begun especially in

the 3rd year with a sharp erosion of satisfied people from 58% to 43%, which continued more

less at the same level in the following years as can be seen from the following graph. As

against this, proportion of dissatisfied respondents went up from 26% at the end of 1 st year to

57% in the fifth year.

Overall Running of the Government



Law and order situation: Country’s law and order situation cannot be termed satisfactory.

When asked whether the law and order situation has improved or deteriorated during the

present regime, 39% replied positively, 44% thought otherwise and 17% termed the situation

as unchanged, which implies that a substantial majority of 61% felt that the situation has

either worsened or remained unchanged. In this case also we can observe a sharp

deterioration of the perceived situation at the end of 3rd

year compared to the previous twoyears. The following graph illustrates further.

Law and Order Situation

Level of corruption: The state of corruption marked a further deterioration in this round of

survey, indicating a continuous perceived increase in corruption over the past 5 years.Proportion of those who thought corruption has increased in this regime, went up from 49%

in the last round to 54% during this survey, which was only 34% at the end of the first year of

the AL rule. As against this, favorable opinion declined from 38% to 34%, which was 42% at

the end of 1st year. 12% thought it remained unchanged.

Level of Corruption



2.2. Politics and Related Issues:

There appears no good news for the present government in the political arena either, as more

and more people have been expressing their unhappiness through increasing negative

perceptions over the years, including politicization, activities of AL, Juba League & Chhatra

League and in its dealing with the opposition. Indicator-wise public perceptions can benarrated as below:

Politicization: Perceived politicization or making things partisan also appears to be on the

rise during the present Awami League government compared to that of BNP led government,

going up from 41% at the end of 1st year to 59% in this round of survey, as can be seen from

the following graph. In this round, when asked whether politicization in this regime has

increased or decreased compared to that of BNP led government, a substantial majority of

59% thought it has increased, 25% opined it to have decreased and 15% believed that it

remained unchanged.

Level of Politicization

Activities of AL and its affiliated bodies: People are not satisfied with AL and its affiliated

bodies, especially the student and youth fronts. The level of dissatisfaction is on the rise,

which went up from 29% at the end of 1st year to 63% in this round of survey. As against this,

proportion of satisfied respondents went down from 59% to 35% in the same period. The

trend over the last five years can be seen from the following graph.

Activities of AL and its Affiliated Bodies



Government’s dealing with the opposition: Respondents were unhappy with government’s

dealing with the opposition as well. An overwhelming majority of 73% thought the

government did not deal with the opposition appropriately, which was only 42% at the end of

1st year of its regime. On the other hand, number of persons who thought that it dealt with the

opposition appropriately went down from 57% to 26% in the same period, as can be seen

from the following graph.

Government’s Dealing with the Opposition

2.3. Trial of War Crime:

Almost the whole country is with the government for the trial of war crimes committed

during the liberation war of 1971. However, reservations exist with the process of trial.

Details are being narrated in the following section:

Trial and punishment of war criminal: The country appears to be united in showing itssupport for the trial of crimes committed against humanity during the liberation war. When

respondents were asked if those who had committed war crimes should be tried and punished,

an overwhelming majority of 80% responded affirmatively, and only 19% were against it.

Incidence of affirmative response was relatively higher in urban than in rural areas and

amongst males compared to females. Age-wise no noticeable difference was observed.

If Support Trial and Punishment of War Criminal



Appropriateness of trial process for war crime: However, majority seemed to be

apprehensive about the process followed in trying the accused war criminals. Currently about

40% of the country’s people believe that the trial for war crimes is being done properly,

whereas initially 86% thought that the government was being able to take appropriate steps in

this regard.

Appropriateness of Trial Process for War Crime

Views on BNP’s silence after verdicts declared on war crimes: The country appeared

divided on this issue. When asked if they support BNP’s silence on war crimes verdicts, as a

whole, a slight majority (55%) replied negatively and 44% supported keeping mum.

Incidence of negative reply was higher in urban than in rural areas. Gender and age-wise no

noticeable difference was observed.

If Support BNP’s Silence after Verdicts on War Crimes



Post verdict strike and destructive activities of JI: Most people were against the post

verdict enforcement of general strike and destructive activities of JI. When asked if they

support this act, 86% respondents replied negatively, and only about 13% supported.

Relatively more support came from rural (15%) compared to urban areas (9%).

If Support JI’s Strike and Destructive Activities after Declaration of Verdict



2.4. Other Political and Social Issues:

This section deals with issues like banning JI and dealing with Mohhamad Younus and

Grameen Bank.

Banning of JI: Majority were against banning JI. When asked, if Jamaat-e-Islam should be

banned from doing politics, a vast majority (70%) responded negatively, and the rest 29%

voiced in favor of banning the party. Similar was the response in the last round in April 2013,

as 65% were against and 25% for the ban. It may be worth noting here that although its

popular support hovers around 3% only, majority are not in favor of taking away JI’s right to

do politics. However, opinion in favor of banning JI was relatively higher in urban than in

rural areas and amongst males compared to females. Age-wise no noticeable pattern emerged.

If Support Banning of JI

Government’s role in relation to Dr. Mohammad Younus and Grameen Bank: A

substantial majority of the people were unhappy with government in this regard. 69% did not

support the role played by the government with Dr. Mohammad Younus and Grameen Bank,

up by 9 percentage points from 60% in the last round.

If Support Govt’s Role in Relation to Dr. Mohammad Younus and Grameen Bank



2.5. Issues Concerning the Forthcoming National Election:

This section delineates matters concerning the all important national election including voting

intent, reflection of recently concluded city corporations election, ability of the election

commission, election time government, need for armed forces’ assistance, likelihood of

consensus between AL and BNP and acceptability of election without BNP’s participation.

Findings are being narrated below one by one.

Voting intent: BNP was leading AL with a wide margin based on voting intent. If the

national election was held today, BNP would pull 50.3% votes, up by more than 6 percentage

points from the last round of survey, distantly followed by AL, accounting for 36.5%, gaining

by about 2 percentage points from the previous round. The trend of voting intent shows awidening gap between BNP and AL with the passage of time, as can be seen from the

following graph. Compared with the last round, the main loser was JP (Ershad) going down

from 11.8% in the last round to 7% in this round, losing mainly to BNP and partly to AL. JI

also lost some grounds as it went down from 3.2% to 2.9%, whose supporters are in general

considered diehard.

Voting Intent



By division, AL would get relatively more votes in Dhaka, followed by Sylhet and

Chittagonh, and BNP in Barisal, followed by Rajshahi. Both AL and BNP would pull least in

Khulna, followed by Rangpur. While Khulna appears to be the stronghold of JI, JP appears

most popular in Rangpur, closely followed by Khulna.

Voting Intent by Division

Figures in %



Both AL and BNP were relatively more popular in rural than in urban areas. AL appeared to

be more popular among males, while BNP was more popular among females. Age-wise,

while AL was relatively more popular amongst older people (above 40 years), BNP was more

popular amongst the younger voters (below 40 years).

Voting Intent by Area, Gender and Age

Figures in %



Recent city corporation elections and its reflection on national election: Recent city

corporation elections’ result is widely believed to be a reflection of the forthcoming national

election’s result. Respondents were asked if the results of the recently concluded election of

the 5 city corporations are any reflection of the forthcoming national election. A substantial

majority of 62% responded affirmatively and 37% said ‘no’. By voting intention, the opinionwas almost diametrically opposite as most of the BNP (90%) and only 22% of the AL

supporters (intend to vote for) thought this to be a reflection of the national election.

Whether City Corporation Elections’ Result was a Reflection of Upcoming National

Election

Ability of the EC to hold free and fair national election: Like the previous round, the

country appeared more or less equally divided on this issue in this round as well. When asked

if the EC has the capability of holding the next general election in a fair and neutral manner,

48% responded affirmatively and 51% opined otherwise. This was 45% and 49% respectively

in the last round. By voting intention, 84% of AL as against 24% of BNP supporters (intend

to vote for) kept faith on the EC for holding the election in a free and fair manner.

Does the Current EC has Ability to Hold a Free and Fair Election



Election time government: The country appears to have a united view about the election

time government as a staggering majority of 82% respondents voiced in favor of holding the

election under a neutral government, which was 90% in April round this year, down by 8

percentage points as can be seen from the following graph. It may be worth noting here that

in the two previous national public opinion polls conducted in December 2011 and December2012 election under caretaker government was preferred by 73% and 76% respondents

respectively.

However, by voting intention, it is interesting to note that slightly more than half of the AL

(53%) and almost 100% of BNP intenders voiced for a neutral government. A large number

of AL intenders who opted for neutral government were contacted over phone and asked

what made them go for it. In reply most of them (86%) said that election will be fair under

neutral government. Other noticeable reasons were ‘for holding peaceful election’ (16%), ‘for

all inclusive election’ (12%) and ‘no party influence’ (9%).

Preferred Election Time Government

Need for army assistance in holding election: Almost the whole country felt the need for

army assistance. Like in the last round, nearly 90% felt that armed forces’ assistance was

essential for holding a free and fair election as can be seen from the following graph.

If there is a Need for Army Assistance in Holding Free and Fair Election



Prospect of a consensus between AL and BNP about election time government: There

appears to be an increased optimism amongst the voters compared with the last round in this

regard. Respondents were asked if there was any prospect of arriving at a consensus between

AL and BNP about the election time government for holding the forthcoming general

election. The trend of findings indicates an increased optimism as positive response went upfrom 34% in 2012 to 45% in this round. However, still slightly more than half of the

respondents (54%) were pessimistic about it compared to 59% in 2012, down by 5 percentage

point.

Will there be a Consensus between AL and BNP about Interim or Caretaker

Government for Holding Next General Election

What if no consensus arrived: A state of anarchy was perceived to be the most likely thing

to happen if no consensus is arrived between the two opposing parties. All respondents were

asked ‘what if no consensus can be arrived regarding election time government between the

two main parties’. A very high majority of respondents (73%) were apprehending a state

anarchy, 14% foresaw a martial law or army backed government and 12% predicted a one

sided election.

What will Happen if no Consensus is Arrived



Acceptability of election without BNP’s participation: Election without the participation

of BNP is most unlikely to be acceptable. When asked if the election would be acceptable

without the participation of BNP, more than 90% replied negatively, and only 7% thought

otherwise. Even among those who intend to vote for AL, 83% opined that the election will

not be acceptable if BNP does not participate as can be seen below.

Will Election without BNP’s Participation be Acceptable

Perception about Tarique Rahman and Shajeeb Wazed Joy as future leaders: Views

appear to be mixed about both Tarique Rahman and Shajeeb Wazed Joy as future leaders of

the country. While 59% thought that it will be good for the country if Tarique Rahman comes

back home and joins politics, up from 42% in 2012. As against this, 53% felt that it will be

good for the country if Shajeeb Wazed joins politics. Negatives views were 39% and 44%

respectively.

Tarique Rahman Shajeeb Wazed Joy



In which Direction the Country is Moving

Overall Running of the Government



Law and Order Situation

Level of Corruption



Level of Politicization



Activities of AL and its Affiliated Bodies

Government’s Dealing with the Opposition



If Support Trial and Punishment of War Criminal

Appropriateness of Trial Process for War Crime

If Support BNP’s Silence after Verdicts on War Crimes



If Support JI’s Strike and Destructive Activities after Declaration of Verdict

If Support Banning of JI



If Support Govt’s Role in Relation to Dr. Mohammad Younus and Grameen Bank



Voting Intent by Area, Gender and Age

Figures in %



Whether City Corporation Elections’ Result was a Reflection of Upcoming National

Election

Does the Current EC has Ability to Hold a Free and Fair Election

Preferred Election Time Government



If there is a Need for Army Assistance in Holding Free and Fair Election



Will there be a Consensus between AL and BNP about Interim or Caretaker

Government for Holding Next General Election

What will Happen if no Consensus is Arrived



Will Election without BNP’s Participation be Acceptable

Perception about Tarique Rahman as Future Leaders

Perception about Shajeeb Wazed Joy as Future Leaders



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