opening address olivier appert president of ifp
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OPENING ADDRESS Olivier Appert President of IFP. ASPO Seminar Paris 26 May 2003. The announcement of the imminent depletion of oil reserves : a recurrent theme. « La Technique moderne » 1919. « Nearly 4.2 billion barrels of oil had been produced in the United-States since 1859... - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
OPENING ADDRESSOlivier Appert
President of IFP
ASPO Seminar
Paris 26 May 2003
2
The announcement of the imminent depletion of oil reserves : a recurrent theme
« Nearly 4.2 billion barrels of oil had been produced in the United-States since 1859...
… No more than 7 billion additional barrels could be produced. »
« La Technique moderne » 1919
3
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
1972197219761977197919791981199519971997199819991999200020002000200120022002
Forecast date of oil conventionnal peak since 1970E
SS
O
Un
ite
d N
ati
on
s
UK
De
pt
of
En
erg
y
Hu
bb
ert
Sh
ell
BP
Wo
rld
Ba
nk
Pe
tro
co
ns
ult
an
t
Iva
nh
oe E
dw
ard
s
IEA
: W
EO
19
98
US
GS
Ca
mp
be
ll Ba
rtle
tt
IEA
: W
EO
20
00
US
EIA
De
ffe
ye
s Sm
ith
« N
em
es
is »
Forecast date of conventionnal peak
Date of forecastSource: Energy exploration & exploitation
4
Main arguments of optimists
• a growing playing field
• the role of technology
• demand lower than anticipated
5
Opening of a New Playing Field
Countries still closed Countries open since 1993
6
Offshore Oil Exploration and Production Records
FORMATIONINDUSTRIE
© CEG-IFP
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00
2800
01
A 331*1
Gulf of Mexico
Brazil Adriatic
(Agip)
(Petrobras)
Brazil1027 m
(Petrobras)
USA
Mediterranean sea
Congo
Gaboon
ProductionExploration
Water depth
in meters
Gulf of MexicoTexas 2370 m
Brazil (Petrobras)1709 m
Brazil (Petrobras)1852 m
Janv. 2002
Brazil (Petrobras)2777 m
Gulf of Mexico (Unocal) 2965 m
7
World Oil Production
8
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Real production
1982 Forecasts
1987 Forecasts
1990 Forecasts
UK North Sea oil production forecasts during the 80 ’s
Mb/d
9
Oil demand Forecasts (WPC 1980)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1975 1980 1985 1990 2000
Low growth scenario High growth scenario
Mb/d
Source: Shell Oil company
Real level
10
IFP R&D Program
• Risk assessment in exploration Increasing the success rate in exploration (notably in complex zones)
• EORIncreasing the sweep efficiency by improving the reservoir
characterization, acting on fluid properties and fluid-rock interactions and developing new drilling and well technology applied to complex reservoirs or offshore, etc.
• Unconventional oil resourcesOptimizing tar sands and extra-heavy oil exploitation (from reservoir to
syncrude production)
• Energy saving Developing engines with new combustion systems
A contribution to a sustainable supply of energy resources
11
Evolution of oil reserves discovered in giant fields*
Volumes of oil discovered in giant fields per decade
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1920-
1929
1930-
1939
1940-
1949
1950-
1959
1960-
1969
1970-
1979
1980-
1989
1990-
1999
Gb
Gbbl
*Oil initial reserves greater than 500 Mbbl
12
Impact of Decline Rate on InvestmentImpact of Decline Rate on Investment
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
mb/d
Cumulative newproduction required
Natural productiondecline
Global production
Decline rate assumption 5%; demand growth 2% around 60 mb/d of additional production capacity
13