oilgas dcf nav model

7/26/2019 OilGas DCF NAV Model

1/22

Oil & Gas DCF/NAV Modeling Training

IMPORTANT: Before you begin - set Excel to the following settings:Excel 1!-"##$ Excel "##!%"#1#%"#1$

1. Tools ---> Options ---> Calculation Tab ---> Set calculation to automatic except tables 1. Office Button ---> Excel Options ---> Formulas Tab ---> Set calculation to automatic except tables

2. Tools ---> Options ---> Calculation Tab ---> Set Iterations to 100 c!ec" box# 2. Office Button ---> Excel Options ---> Formulas Tab ---> Set Iterations to 100 c!ec" box#

& 'o(yright )*ll +treet Pre(, Inc

NOTI'E: The enclose. /o.els *re (ro(riet*ry to )*ll +treet Pre( *n. *re .esigne. for illustr*ti0e *n. tr*ining (ur(oses onlyistributing, sh*ring, .u(lic*ting or *ltering these /o.els in *ny w*y is (rohibite. without the ex(resse. (er/ission of )*ll +treetPre(, Inc 2or /ore infor/*tion *bout our tr*ining (rogr*/s, (le*se cont*ct us *t 3##-454-$6!6 or 0isit us online *tw*llstreet(re(co/


2/22

Financial Statement Model for OXY

7ener*l *ssu/(tions 'ircul*rity bre*8er

Compan$ %ame O&' Circular reference brea"er

(atest Fiscal $ear en) mm*))*$$# 12*+1*0, Off1 On0 1

Current s!are price /.+1

Inco/e +t*te/ent

ctual ctual ctual Pro9ecte. Annu*l 2orec*st

"##5 "##6 "##4 "##! "##3 "## "#1# "#11 "#1" "#1$

12*+1*0 12*+1*03 12*+1*0, 12*+1*04 12*+1*05 12*+1*0 12*+1*10 12*+1*11 12*+1*12 12*+1*1+

Oil 6 7as 40+.0 503.0 12,4,.0 1052.1 1051.5 11+01.0 114,. 121+3.4 12305. 12,,.4

C!emical +,43.0 ,1.0 513.0 35,,.4 344.5 344.5 344.5 344.5 344.5 344.5

Ot!er 111.0 131.0 140.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Tot*l Re0enues 1#,3!# 15,6!# 1!,441# 14,5"! 1!,#1$4 1!,5""! 1!,3431 13,"6!6 13,4$#" 1,#336

Cost of 8oo)s sol) 15.0 323.0 ,25.0 ,045. ,+0.5 ,30+.2 ,,2.4 ,53.3 401,.4 4200.1

Sellin8 8eneral 6 a)ministrati9e +,.0 1+2.0 1+41.0 1+41.0 1+41.0 1+41.0 1+41.0 1+41.0 1+41.0 1+41.0

:epreciation )epletion an) amorti;ation 1231.0 122.0 202.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0

En9ironmental reme)iation 3.0 ,2.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

Exploration expense 21.0 +1.0 23.0 23.0 24.0 2,1.4 253.0 +01.4 +13.4 ++,.

EBIT 5,##1# 4,#6## !,4""# 4,$$4 4,4#!3 4,3$3 !,#!"6 !,"!3$ !,5!! !,!$$6Interest expense 2,0.0 2+.0 21.0 22. 222.2 12.2 132.3 1+.3 10.2 1.,

Interest )i9i)en)s an) ot!er income 1.0 151.0 21.0 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4

Pret*x inco/e $,336# 6,$3# !,656# 4,"34! 4,646$ 4,3"!" !,#4 !,$136 !,66#" !,3!14

Taxes 1,+.0 124.0 +4+.3 24,,.1 2555.4 +00.0 +12+.5 +220.1 ++22.1 +,+.3

uity "4,1#3# $",$66# $$,1$"5 $4,"5!! $3,6"$ 51,$"3! 55,#655 56,! 5 !,563"

Balance check 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

+u((orting +che.ules

)or8ing '*(it*l "##5 "##6 "##4 "##! "##3 "## "#1# "#11 "#1" "#1$

1. 7ro@ @it! re9enues )efault#

2. O9erri)e iD :a$s of re9enues 98. collection perio)# 44.3 ,5.4

+. O9eri)e i iD bsolute proection

ccounts recei9able ++2.0 +10.1 +202.2 +24.2 ++,+.0 ++,.+ +30,. +32.4

1. 7ro@ @it! CO7S )efault#

2. O9erri)e iD In9entor$ :a$s 5.2 4.


In9entories 523.0 45.1 5+2.3 53+.5 545.4 00., 21.2 3.+

1. 7ro@ @it! S76 )efault#

2. O9eri)eD bsolute proectionArepai) expenses 245.0 245.0 245.0 245.0 245.0 245.0 245.0 245.0

1. Strai8!t-line )efault#

2. O9eri)eD bsolute proection

(on8-term recei9ables 2+1.0 2+1.0 2+1.0 2+1.0 2+1.0 2+1.0 2+1.0 2+1.0

1. 7ro@ @it! CO7S )efault#

2. O9erri)e i. Aa$ables Aa$ment Aerio) 1+4.4 1+1.


ccounts pa$able 22,+.0 215.1 225+. 2+1. 210.2 240.2 232,. 232.

1. 7ro@ @it! S76 )efault#


ccrue) expenses 1343.0 1343.0 1343.0 1343.0 1343.0 1343.0 1343.0 1343.0

1. 7ro@ @it! taxes )efault#


Taxes pa$able +,.0 +13. +2.+ +2.3 +3,.1 +,4.1 +45.4 +.


3/22

Discounted Cash Flow Model for OXY

7ener*l *ssu/(tions

Haluation * )eal )ate +*+1*04

(ast fiscal $ear en) )ate 12*+1*0,

Stub $ear fraction 43.+?

Current S!are Arice /.+1

Gei8!te) a9era8e cost of capitalD 10.0?

2ree c*sh flow buil.u(

Pro9ecte. Annu*l 2orec*st

"##! "##3 "## "#1# "#11 "#1" "#1$

12*+1*04 12*+1*05 12*+1*0 12*+1*10 12*+1*11 12*+1*12 12*+1*1+

Total e9enues 1,2.4 1401+., 1422.4 145,5.1 15234.3 15,+0.2 1055.3

EBIT: 54+,. 004.5 2+.5 42.3 ,45.+ 54.4 101++.3

EBIT ,++,. ,,04.5 ,5+.5 4042.3 4245.+ 44.4 44++.3

Tax rate .0? .0? .0? .0? .0? .0? .0?

EBIT +35., +400. +5+0.+ +,0., 043.5 155., ++0.5

::6 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0

:eferre) tax liabilities 4+.4# 52.1 44.2 50.+ ,.3 ,5.+ .4

Exploration expense )r$ !ole# 23.0 24.0 2,1.4 253.0 +01.4 +13.4 ++,.

Gor"in8 capital increases# * )ecreases 2.+ 2.1# 2,.4# 2,.5# 2.1# 22.3# 25.2#

Capital expen)itures net of asset sales# +15+.0# +15+.0# +15+.0# +15+.0# +15+.0# +15+.0# +15+.0#

nle9ere) free cas! flo@s 1,16 +222. ++3.3 +31,.0 +,+. +4,4.1 +31.2

Discount factor 0.931 0.846 0.769 0.699 0.636 0.578 0.525

Midyear adust!ent factor 1#$! 1.049 1.049 1.049 1.049 1.049 1.049

Aresent 9alue of free cas! flo@s 121.+ 253.3 2410.2 2345., 22+. 225+.+ 2144.1

+u/ of (resent 0*lues of 2'2s 14,6$5

Ter/in*l 0*lue E>uity 0*lue c*lcul*tions

7rowth in (er(etuity /etho. Enter(rise 0*lue 53,36

(on8 term 8ro@t! rate 0.0? Calculation of net )ebtD

Free cas! flo@ t1# +31.2 Current portion of lon8-term )ebt 141.0

Terminal 9alue +312.0 S!ort term )ebt 0.0

uity 0*lue % sh*re 6!35

Exit EH * :CF multiple 10.0x

(T< :CF at en) of proection perio) +31.2

+h*res Outst*n.ing )or8sheet

Exit EH * )ail$ pro)uction /*boe*)# /30000

(T< )ail$ pro)uction uity Total 1415.+

.4?

,.0? )eighte. *0er*ge cost of c*(it*l

a@ obser9e)# beta 0.4 Gei8!te) a9era8e cost of capitalD .2?

Cost of e=uit$ usin8 rele9ere) in)ustr$ beta .2?

In.ustry bet* c*lcul*tion

'o/(s R*w bet* +h*re (rice +h*res M*r8et c*( ebt % E T*x r*te ?nl Bet* )eigh Bet* Rele0 Bet*

O&' 0.4 /.+1 51.5 1310.+ 205.0 0.30? .00? 0.4 0.1,

COA 0.53 /,5.+3 1,4+., 11+1.5 2,+14.0 2+.01? 3.00? 0.43 0.1

LES 0.45 /33.4 +1.4 144+3. ++5.0 1.11? 33.,3? 0.42 0.0,


4/22

Net Asset Value (NAV) for OXY

EP

Total )e9elopment costs ,53.0? )e9elopment*$ear 20?

Oil )ecline*$ear 2?

%atural 8as )ecline*$ear +?

Oil N*tur*l 7*s

eser9es Aro)uction Arice eser9es Aro)uction Arice

Bbbls


5/22

Tot*l ","4$! $,31##

NP $5,6

Acre*ge


6/22

.S. 1.1 /00 /+35

(atin merica 1.3 /00 /,2

Eastern Lemisp!ere 25.4 /1,00 /3,

Total .+ /200 5!4

'he/ic*ls

2004 EBIT: 550.0Tar8et EH*EBIT: 4.3x

Estimate) 9alue ,,00.0

Cas! 6 In9estments 22+.0

Gor"in8 capital excl. cas!# 2.0

E=uit$ in9estments

Ot!er assets 35.0

E $,4!5#

Current portion of lon8-term )ebt JEFM

S!ort-term )ebt JEFM(on8-term )ebt JEFM

uity cl*i/s CRE2D

E=uit$ Halue JEFM

S!ares outstan)in8 51.5

+h*re (rice CRE2D


7/22

Re0enues

Pro.uction 'osts

e0elo(/ent Tot*l Pre-T*x T*x After-T*x

Oil %atural 7as Total 'osts '*sh 2lows R*te '*sh 2lows

/


8/22

15!,15 $5,6466 4,36# 1#6,!"65 4$,6!6


9/22


10/22

!roduction !rofile for OXY

Pro.uction *ssu/(tions

Con9ersion factor ,

Actu*l Actu*l Actu*l Pro9ecte. Annu*l 2orec*st

"##5 "##6 "##4 "##! "##3 "## "#1# "#11 "#1" "#1$

?nite. +t*tes

'ru.e oil li>ui.s Mbbls%.FCalifornia 45 4, 5, 5, JJJ 53 5 5+ 51 4

Aermian 13 1,1 1,4 142 144 152 154 12 1, 1

Ot!er 22 1, 13 13 JJJ 13 13 13 13 13

Tot*l 'ru.e Oils "65 "6$ "43 "!$ "!3 "3$ "34 "3 "" "5

'ru.e oil li>ui.s - eclineF%7rowth

California 2.,?# 1+.2? 0.0? 0.0? 1.0?# 1.0?# 2.0?# 2.0?# 2.0?#

Aermian .3? +.4? +.0? +.0? +.0? 2.3? 2.3? 2.0? 2.0?

Ot!er 24.+?# ,.+?# 0.0? 0.0? 0.0? 0.0? 0.0? 0.0? 0.0?

Tot*l 'ru.e Oils 0.?# 3.? 1.? 1.? 1.,? 1.+? 1.0? 0.5? 0.5?

N*tur*l g*s MMcf%.F

California 2+4 22 23, 23, JJJ 23+ 231 2, 21 2+,

Lu8oton 124 1++ 1+5 12 1, 131 133 1,0 1,3 140

Aermian 1+0 140 1 200 20, 212 215 223 2+2 2+

Ot!er 1+ 5 4 4 JJJ 4 4 4 4 4

Tot*l n*tur*l g*s 6#! 66$ 66 4#6 416 4"$ 4$" 4$3 , ,31

TOTA; Mboe%.F - ?+ $$ $56 $4! $!5 $31 $34 $" $4 $ 5#"

" #ro$th 2.0" 6.4" 1.8" 1.8" 1.5" 1.3" 1.0" 0.8" 0.9"

;*tin A/eric*

'ru.e oil Mbbls%.F

r8entina - - ++ +3 +, +5 0 2 ,

Colombia ++ +2 ++ ++ JJJ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++

Tot*l ++ +2 ,, ,5 , 41 4+ 43 44 4

N*tur*l g*s MMcf%.F

r8entina - - 14 15 1 20 21 22 2+ 2Boli9ia - - 14 15 1 20 21 22 2+ 2

Tot*l - - + +, +4 + 1 + , 5

N*tur*l g*s - eclineF%7rowth

r8entina 3.0? 3.0? 3.0? 3.0? 3.0? 3.0? 3.0?

Boli9ia 3.0? 3.0? 3.0? 3.0? 3.0? 3.0? 3.0?

Tot*l - - - 3.0? 3.0? 3.0? 3.0? 3.0? 3.0? 3.0?

TOTA; Mboe%.F - ;*tin A/eric* $$ $" !" !5 !4 !3 3# 3" 36 3!

" #ro$th %3.0"& 124.0" 2.7" 2.8" 2.8" 2.9" 2.9" 3.0" 3.1"

E*stern Ge/is(here

'ru.e oil Mbbls%.F

Oman 1+ 14 15 1 20 21 22 2+ 2 23Natar 3 2 + 3 4 30 32 33 35 ,1

Aa"istan 4 3 - JJJ - - - - -

ussia 2 25 24 - JJJ - - - - -

'emen ++ 2 +0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +2 +2 +2

(ib$a - 5 2+ 2 +, 3 32 3 ,5 4

Tot*l 124 12 13 12+ 1+ 1, 134 1, 152 14

N*tur*l g*s MMcf.F

Aa"istan 43 44 4, - JJJ - - - - -

Oman 33 +0 2 24 2, 2 2+ 22 21

Natar - - - 130 200 2+0 +3 00 23 300

Tot*l 1+0 121 10, 14 224 23, +, 2+ 4 321

N*tur*l g*s - eclineF%7rowth

Aa"istan 2.4? 1.+?#

Oman 20.0?# +1.5?# 3.0?# 3.0?# 3.0?# 3.0?# 3.0?# 3.0?# 3.0?#

Natar ++.+? 13.0? 30.0? 13.? ,.+? 14.,?

Tot*l ,.?# 12.?# ,5.? 24.2? 12.,? .3? 1.,? 3.,? 1,.3?

TOTA; Mboe%.F - E*stern Ge/is(here 15 15 14$ 16$ 1!" 13 "1 "$ "64 "3$

" #ro$th 0.3" 9.1" %6.0"& 12.3" 10.2" 15.6" 9.5" 7.1" 10.5"

Tot*l

Cru)e oil


11/22

"#! $ncome Statement for OXY

EP *ssu/(tions

%umber of )a$s in a $ear +,3

EP Results

"##5 "##6 "##4 "##! "##3 "## "#1# "#11 "#1" "#1$

e9enues ,511 35 1223, 1052 1052 11+01 114, 121+, 12305 12,4

Aro)uction Costs 1244# 1,04# 2+,3# 2,+# 2,+1# 24+# 25+# +1# ++04# +0#

Exploration Expense 205# +1+# 23# 23# 24# 2,2# 253# +02# +1,# ++4#

:epreciation 55# 1130# 14,1# 142# 144# 1521# 1555# 11# 1++# 1,#

Ot!er ++# 22# ,00# 33# 350# ,00# ,24# ,4# ,,# ,55#

Are-Tax 00 3,, 42+3 345 3,33 352, 3, ,115 ,255 ,55

Taxes 104# 2230# 211# 2041# 2142# 2242# 2+3,# 232# 23,0# 2,5#

Tot*l EP ",6! $,!14 5,$"5 $,5#! $,535 $,665 $,4#3 $,446 $,!"3 $,3#5

7eogr*(hic*l Bre*8.own

?nite. +t*tes: "##5 "##6 "##4 "##! "##3 "## "#1# "#11 "#1" "#1$

e9enues ,4 ,000 40,, ,420 ,5 , 400 411+ 4141 42++Aro)uction Costs 101,# 1+11# 1414# 151,# 11# 201# 2114# 2211# 2+02# 2+,#

Exploration Expense 114# 1+2# 55# 0# 1# +# # 3# ,# ,#

:epreciation ,22# 40,# 2,# +# ,0# 43# 55# 5# 100,# 1013#

Ot!er 22,# 21# 10# 14# 23# +2# +4# 2# 3# #

Taxes ,5# 52# 1131# 101+# 1011# 100,# 5# 54# 4# ,1#

Total 144 2345 244 21 2+4 223 20, 2+50 2+5 2+1,

;*tin A/eric*

e9enues 303 ,,, 1+35 12+2 12, 125 1++ 1+41 111 132

Aro)uction Costs 40# 4# 250# +01# +2+# +,# +41# +4# 2# 3+#

Exploration Expense 22# 3+# +2# ++# +# +3# +,# +4# +5# +#

:epreciation # 33# 243# 252# 20# 25# +04# +1,# +23# ++3#

Ot!er 13# ,# 4# +3# +,# +4# +5# +# 0# 1#

Taxes 14# 22# +10# 2# 2# 2# 2# 230# 230# 230#Total 143 23 1 ++2 ++2 +++ +++ +++ +++ +++

E*stern Ge/is(here

e9enues 15+ 242 +5+2 23+0 245 +03 ++42 +,32 +2, 251

Aro)uction Costs 11# 222# +,5# +,# +55# 25# 3# 31# 350# ,1#

Exploration Expense ,# 125# 143# 1+4# 122# 1+# 133# 140# 152# 201#

:epreciation +22# +5# 3,0# 5# 325# 34# 3+# ,0,# ,02# ,1#

Ot!er +# 123# 1+# 10,# 120# 1+2# 132# 1,4# 14# 14#

Taxes 3+# 10# 130# 50# 11# 1014# 110# 121,# 1++,# 14+#

Tot*l ,23 55 11+, ,+ 41 4, 5,5 32 104 113

Pro.uction

'ru.e oil li>ui.s Mbbls%.F "##5 "##6 "##4 "##! "##3 "## "#1# "#11 "#1" "#1$

nite) States 23 23+ 2,5 24+ 245 25+ 25, 25 22 2(atin merica ++ +2 ,, ,5 , 41 4+ 43 44 4

Eastern Lemisp!ere 124 12 13 12+ 1+ 1, 134 1, 152 14

Tot*l 'ru.e N7;=s 515 515 5! 545 531 6## 614 6$$ 661 6!#

N*tur*l g*s MMcf.F

nite) States 304 33+ 33 ,03 ,13 ,2+ ,+2 ,+5 , ,31

(atin merica - - + +, +4 + 1 + , 5

Eastern Lemisp!ere 1+0 121 10, 14 224 23, +, 2+ 4 321

Tot*l 4$! 4!5 !$6 31 33# 13 1,#5" 1,1#5 1,1$! 1,""#

Tot*l Pro.uction MBOEF

Cru)e Oil 6 (i=ui)s 1 1 4 , 51 300 31, 3++ 331 340

%atural 7as 10, 112 12+ 1+4 14 13+ 14 15 10 20+

Tot*l 6"# 6"4 4#" 4## 4"3 46$ 4# !1! !5# !!$

7eo8rap!ical Basis

nite) States ++ +3 +,4 +4 +51 +5, +2 +, + 02

(atin merica ++ +2 42 4 4, 45 50 52 53 54

Eastern Lemisp!ere 1 1 1,+ 13+ 142 15 21 2+ 23, 25+


12/22

Tot*l 6"# 6"4 4#" 4## 4"3 46$ 4# !1! !5# !!$

'ost Profile %BB;F

?nite. +t*tes "##5 "##6 "##4 "##! "##3 "## "#1# "#11 "#1" "#1$

Aro)uction Costs /5.22 /10.1 /12.51 /1+.+1 /1+.51 /1.+1 /1.51 /13.+1 /13.51 /1,.+1

Exploration Expense /0.3 /1.03 /0.,, /0.,, /0.,, /0.,, /0.,, /0.,, /0.,, /0.,,

:epreciation /3.0+ /3.,0 /,.1 /,.1 /,.1 /,.1 /,.1 /,.1 /,.1 /,.1Ot!er /1.5+ /2.+1 /+.0, /+.0, /+.0, /+.0, /+.0, /+.0, /+.0, /+.0,

Taxes 25? 25? 2? 2? 2? 2? 2? 2? 2? 2?

?+ - 'ost Esc*l*tions%eclinesF

Aro)uction Costs /0.30 /0.30 /0.30 /0.30 /0.30 /0.30 /0.30

Exploration Expense /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00

:epreciation /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00

Ot!er /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00

Taxes 0? 0? 0? 0? 0? 0? 0?

;*tin A/eric*

Aro)uction Costs /3.51 /,.+ /10.40 /11.20 /11.40 /12.20 /12.40 /1+.20 /1+.40 /1.20

Exploration Expense /1.5+ /.3 /1.22 /1.22 /1.22 /1.22 /1.22 /1.22 /1.22 /1.22

:epreciation /+.,3 /.41 /10.31 /10.31 /10.31 /10.31 /10.31 /10.31 /10.31 /10.31

Ot!er /1.23 /0.31 /1.50 /1.+0 /1.+0 /1.+0 /1.+0 /1.+0 /1.+0 /1.+0

Taxes 31? 4? +? +? +? +? +? +? +? +?

;*tin A/eric* - 'ost Esc*l*tions%eclinesF

Aro)uction Costs /0.30 /0.30 /0.30 /0.30 /0.30 /0.30 /0.30

Exploration Expense /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00

:epreciation /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00

Ot!er /0.30# /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00

Taxes 0? 0? 0? 0? 0? 0? 0?

E*stern Ge/is(here

Aro)uction Costs /+.32 /.05 /,.20 /,.20 /,.20 /,.20 /,.20 /,.20 /,.20 /,.20

Exploration Expense /1.24 /2.+3 /2.3 /2.3 /1.3 /1.3 /1.3 /1.3 /1.3 /1.3

:epreciation /3.+ /4.1 /.+ /5.+ /5.+ /4.+ /4.+ /,.+ /,.+ /3.+

Ot!er /1.41 /2.+0 /2.1 /1.1 /1.1 /1.1 /1.1 /1.1 /1.1 /1.1Taxes ,? 3? 3,? 3,? 3,? 3,? 3,? 3,? 3,? 3,?

Tot*l

e9enues /+3.54 /.2+ /33.52 /4.5 /4.32 /4.+ /,.,+ /,.+3 /,.+0 /3.3

Aro)uction Costs /,.4+ /5.+, /10.44 /11.2 /11.5 /11.41 /11.5 /12.0+ /12.2 /12.+4

Exploration Expense /1.10 /1.,+ /1.+ /1.15 /1.05 /1.10 /1.1+ /1.13 /1.14 /1.1

:epreciation /3.20 /3. /5.02 /4.54 /4.4, /4.,+ /4. /4.++ /4.1, /,.,

Ot!er /1.4, /2.20 /2.4+ /2.33 /2.3+ /2.32 /2. /2.4 /2., /2.

Taxes +3? +5? 0? +5? +5? +? 0? 0? 1? 1?


13/22

!rice Dec% for OXY

+elect *n o(er*ting scen*rio

1 Best case2 Base case

+ Gea" case

ctual ctual ctual Pro9ecte. Annu*l

"##5 "##6 "##4 "##! "##3 "## "#1#

Bench/*r8s

Select a case 1-best 2-base +-@ea"# 2

Stron8 case 1 /40.00 /40.00 /40.00 /40.00

Base case 2 /33.00 /33.00 /33.00 /33.00

Gea" case + /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00

North +e* Brent %BblF /+5.12 /3.2 /,3.12 /33.00 /33.00 /33.00 /33.00

Stron8 case 1 /40.00 /40.00 /40.00 /40.00

Base case 2 /33.00 /33.00 /33.00 /33.00

Gea" case + /0.00 /0.00 /0.00 /0.00

)est Tex*s Int /1.+0 /3,.3 /,,.11 /33.00 /33.00 /33.00 /33.00

Stron8 case 1 /.00 /.00 /.00 /.00

Base case 2 /5.00 /5.00 /5.00 /5.00

Gea" case + /4.00 /4.00 /4.00 /4.00

?+ N7)F %MMcfF /3., /5.+ /,.0 /5.00 /5.00 /5.00 /5.00

Re*liHe. (rices

'ru.e oil li>ui.s Mbbls%.F "##5 "##6 "##4 "##! "##3 "## "#1#

Select a case 1-best 2-base +-@ea"# 1

Stron8 case 1 2? 2? 2? 2?

Base case 2 0? 0? 0? 0?

Gea" case + 55? 55? 55? 55?

nite) States /+4.42 /30.50 /35.1+ /30.,0 /30.,0 /30.,0 /30.,0

Differential 91" 90" 88" 92" 92" 92" 92"

Stron8 case 1 55? 55? 55? 55?

Base case 2 5? 5? 5? 5?Gea" case + 50? 50? 50? 50?

(atin merica /++.0 /.4 /32.0 /5.0 /5.0 /5.0 /5.0

Differential 87" 82" 80" 88" 88" 88" 88"

Stron8 case 1 3? 3? 3? 3?

Base case 2 +? +? +? +?

Gea" case + 1? 1? 1? 1?

2


14/22

Eastern Lemisp!ere /+.55 /.55 /,1.35 /32.23 /32.23 /32.23 /32.23

Differential 92" 92" 95" 95" 95" 95" 95"

N*tur*l 7*s %MMcfF

Stron8 case 1 3? 3? 3? 3?

Base case 2 0? 0? 0? 0?

Gea" case + 53? 53? 53? 53?nite) States /3.+3 /4.11 /,.31 /4.,0 /4.,0 /4.,0 /4.,0

Differential 94" 85" 102" 95" 95" 95" 95"

Stron8 case 1 +3? +3? +3? +3?

Base case 2 +0? +0? +0? +0?

Gea" case + 23? 23? 23? 23?

(atin merica /0.00 /0.00 /2.00 /2.50 /2.50 /2.50 /2.50

Differential 31" 35" 35" 35" 35"

Stron8 case 1 +3? +3? +3? +3?

Base case 2 +0? +0? +0? +0?Gea" case + 23? 23? 23? 23?

Eastern Lemisp!ere /2. /2. /2.23 /2.50 /2.50 /2.50 /2.50

Differential 52" 29" 35" 35" 35" 35" 35"

Reference (rices

)orl. )i.e Oil /+3.4 /.15 /3,.34 6#!" 6#!5 6#!! 6#!

)orl. )i.e 7*s /.3, /3.5 /3.30 4$5 414 4#4 6!1

*t* t*bles

"##! N*tur*l 7*s Bench/*r8 Price

/.+0 /,.00 /4.00 /5.00 /.00 /10.00

/30.00 JEFM JEFM JEFM JEFM JEFM


"##! Brent Price /,0.00 JEFM JEFM JEFM JEFM JEFM

/,3.00 JEFM JEFM JEFM JEFM JEFM




15/22

2orec*st

"#11 "#1" "#1$

/40.00 /40.00 /40.00

/33.00 /33.00 /33.00

/0.00 /0.00 /0.00

/33.00 /33.00 /33.00

/40.00 /40.00 /40.00

/33.00 /33.00 /33.00

/0.00 /0.00 /0.00

/33.00 /33.00 /33.00

/.00 /.00 /.00

/5.00 /5.00 /5.00

/4.00 /4.00 /4.00

/5.00 /5.00 /5.00

"#11 "#1" "#1$

2? 2? 2?

0? 0? 0?

55? 55? 55?

/30.,0 /30.,0 /30.,0

92" 92" 92"

55? 55? 55?

5? 5? 5?50? 50? 50?

/5.0 /5.0 /5.0

88" 88" 88"

3? 3? 3?

+? +? +?

1? 1? 1?


16/22

/32.23 /32.23 /32.23

95" 95" 95"

3? 3? 3?

0? 0? 0?

53? 53? 53?/4.,0 /4.,0 /4.,0

95" 95" 95"

+3? +3? +3?

+0? +0? +0?

23? 23? 23?

/2.50 /2.50 /2.50

35" 35" 35"

+3? +3? +3?

+0? +0? +0?23? 23? 23?

/2.50 /2.50 /2.50

35" 35" 35"

6#31 6#35 6#34

66! 66" 6$4


17/22

Morgan StanleyDouglas Terreson, CFA(713) 512-4480

OXY -NY!

CA!"X for OXY

'*(it*l ex(en.itures


"##5 "##6 "##4 "##! "##3 "## "#1# "#11 "#1" "#1$

Oil 6 8as 132, 21+4 2421 +200 +200 +200 +200 +200 +200 +200

C!emicals 133 14+ 231 130 130 130 130 130 130 130

Ot!er + 1 ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++ ++

Total 1420 2+2 +003 ++5+ ++5+ ++5+ ++5+ ++5+ ++5+ ++5+

A

E6A 5 1131 14,1 212+ 212+ 212+ 212+ 212+ 212+ 212+

C!emicals 2+ 231 2,0 23, 23, 23, 23, 23, 23, 23,Ot!er 1 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Total 1231 122 202 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

PPE

Capital expen)itures 2+2 +003 ++5+ ++5+ ++5+ ++5+ ++5+ ++5+ ++5+

sset sales 153.0# 52.0# 200.0# 200.0# 200.0# 200.0# 200.0# 200.0# 200.0#

::6 122# 202# 200# 200# 200# 200# 200# 200# 200#

Exploration expense +1+.0# 23.0# 23.0# 24.0# 2,1.4# 253.0# +01.4# +13.4# ++,.#

AA6E 14141.0 2+1,.0 250.0 23+4,.0 2354.2 2,+3.+ 2,54,., 24++.5 2445.


18/22

Morgan Stanley

Douglas Terreson, CFA(713) 512-4480

OXY - NYSE

Aa8e 15

Chemicals for OXY


MillionF "##5 "##6 "##4 "##! "##3 "## "#1# "#11 "#1" "#1$

Total e9enues +,43 ,1 513 35,4 345 345 345 345 345 345

Total Operatin8 Expenses +015 +45+ +,3 54 3051 3051 3051 3051 3051 3051

" of 'ales 82.1" 81.5" 75.9" 79.8" 79.8" 79.8" 79.8" 79.8" 79.8" 79.8"

Total EBIT: ,34 535 11,1 550 54 54 54 54 54 54

(B)*D+ Mar#in 14.? 15.3? 2.1? 13.0? 13.0? 13.0? 13.0? 13.0? 13.0? 13.0?

::6 2+ 231 2,0 23, 23, 23, 23, 23, 23, 23,

EBIT 1 ,04 01 ,2 ,1 ,1 ,1 ,1 ,1 ,1

Interest Expense 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Earnin8s Before Tax 1 ,04 01 ,2 ,1 ,1 ,1 ,1 ,1 ,1

Taxes +2?# 1+2 1 255 200 203 203 203 203 203 203

Tot*l Inco/e "3" 51$ 41$ 5"5 5$4 5$4 5$4 5$4 5$4 5$4

of +*les

Base C!emicals ++? 2? 5?

Hin$ls 34? 30? 5?

Aerformance C!emicals 10? 5? ?

+*les 'ontribution by Pro.uct MMF

Base C!emicals 121+ 1 2+11

Hin$ls 203 2+21 2+11

Aerformance C!emicals +,5 +41 1+


19/22

eser9es

Aa8e 1

&eser'es !rofile for OXY

?nite. +t*tes ;*tin A/eric* Mi..le E*st Other

Net Pro0e. Reser0es - Oil MMbblsF 2J#5 2J#6 2J#4 2J#5 2J#6 2J#4 2J#5 2J#6 2J#4 2J#5

Reser0es *t Begining of Je*r 1300 1 1,+, , ,4 30 +2, +22 2, ,0

C!an8es attributable toD

e9isions # 2 25# 1# 1+# 10 1, +# + 2

Impro9e) eco9er$ 42 5 41 , , ++ 10 + 1 1

Extensions 6 )isco9er$ 4 + - + 4 + +, 1 2

Aurc!ases 10 105 5 2 - 132 - #

Sales - 5# # - - - - - - -

Aro)uction +# 2# 5# 1+# 1+# 2,# ++# +3# 0# 12#

Reser0es *t En. of Je*r 1 1,+, 1,45 ,4 30 22, +22 2, +24

Reser0es w%o +*le%Purch*ses 15 13+, 135 +5 30 4 +22 22 +2+ 3+

e0elo(e. Reser0es: 12,0 1++, 1+, + 10 205 14 2 +

Percent e0elo(e. 5.? 51.4? 5+.2? ,.2? 55.0? ,1.? ,.,? 35.5? 4,.1? 54.5?

Net Pro0e. Reser0es of N*tur*l 7*s BcfF 2J#5 2J#6 2J#4 2J#5 2J#6 2J#4 2J#5 2J#6 2J#4 2J#5

Reser0es *t Begining of Je*r 152, 2101 2++5 - - - ,3 4,5 1031 11


e9isions 3+ 1+2# - - 3 1+ +2# 3

Impro9e) eco9er$ 150 12 12+ - - - - - 4 3

Extensions 6 )isco9er$ 151 , 35 - - - - ++1 - 10

Aurc!ases 4 1, 24 - - 1,1 - - - -

Sales 1# +# 2# - - - - - - -

Aro)uction 15,# 202# 214# - - 12# 20# 1,# 11# 24#Reser0es *t En. of Je*r 2101 2++5 22 - - 1 4,5 1031 110, 10,

Reser0es w%o +*le%Purch*ses 203 2144 2140 - - ++ 4,5 1031 110, 10,

e0elo(e. Reser0es: 1, 15, 13+ - - - 100 4+ 3,0

Percent e0elo(e. 45.+? 4.0? 50.0? 1+.0? ,.? 30.,?

B*rrels of E>ui0il*nt BOEF Reser0es 2J#5 2J#6 2J#4 2J#5 2J#6 2J#4 2J#5 2J#6 2J#4 2J#5

Reser0es *t Begining of Je*r 150+. 15+.4 2023. ,.0 ,4.0 30.0 +3.0 30.0 41.2 4.0


e9isions 11.4 +4.5 30.0# 1.0# 1+.0# 14.3 +5.+ +.+# 5.5 2.4

Impro9e) eco9er$ 102.0 11.3 1.3 ,.0 ,.0 ++.0 10.0 +.0 13.2 1.5

Extensions 6 )isco9er$ +.2 2+.0 12.4 - +.0 4.0 +.0 1.2 1.0 +.4

Aurc!ases 11.2 1+3.+ 1+.4 2.0 - 145.5 - .0 .0 .0#Sales 0.2# 5.3# .+# - - - - - - -

Aro)uction 12.0# 12,.0# 1+.2# 1+.0# 1+.0# 25.0# +,.+# +4.4# 1.5# 1,.3#

Reser0es *t En. of Je*r 15+.4 202. 205.4 ,4.0 30.0 235.+ 30.0 41.2 311.+ ,,.4

Reser0e ;ife, ye*rs 1. 1,.1 13.3 3.2 +.5 .2 12. 12.3 12.2 .0

New Reser0es K 1,.0 +13.4 14.5 +.0 .0# 2+,.+ 31.+ 35.5 52.0 .2

New Reser0es, (lus s*les 1,+.5 +04.2 1+.3 +.0 .0# 2+,.+ 31.+ 35.5 52.0 .2

New Reser0es - +*les - Purch*ses 132.5 150.+ 3.2 3.0 .0# 34.3 31.+ 3.5 45.0 5.2


20/22

eser9es

Aa8e 20

'ost Incurre. in /illionsF

Exploration +1 + 0 4 , ,1 50 4 144 12#

Aropert$ ac=. 4 143 241 - +0,+ 23 +51 30 -

:e9elopment 351 2 1+ 13, 12 +20 42, 5+ 42 11

Tot*l 'osts ,3 244, +533 24 211 + 5+1 12,2 14+ 1#

:*F6:

*lue R*tios %BOEF

ll Sources - %o Sales A0er*ge 'ost%BOE - 1 Je*r /.02 /5.4 /1. /5.4 /32.43# /1.34 /1,.1 /21.3 /14., /0.2#

$-Je*r A0er*ge /10.4, /1.5 /15.3,

Onl$ Exp 6 :e9 A0er*ge 'ost%BOE - 1 Je*r /.00 /3. /23.33 /0.,0 /32.43# /,.,+ /13.40 /1,.04 /12.2 /0.12#

$-Je*r A0er*ge /4., /1+.3 /1.2

ll Sources Incl. S an) A# A0er*ge 'ost%BOE - 1 Je*r /.02 /.0 /1.2 /5.4 /32.43# /1.34 /1,.1 /21.3 /14., /0.2#

$-Je*r A0er*ge /10.4 /1.5 /15.3,

Pro.uction Re(l*ce/ent R*tios

ll SourcesD 1- Je*r 1+2? 2? 1? 2,2? -+1? 5? 11? 13,? 1,? 23?

$- Je*r 14+? +? 1,,?

Exclu)in8 A6S 1- Je*r 12+? 1+? 0? +5? -+1? 203? 11? 1,? 15,? ?

$- Je*r 101? 105? 13?

ll SourcesD Exclu)in8 Sales 1- Je*r 1+2? 231? 14? 2,2? -+1? 5? 11? 13,? 1,? 23?

$- Je*r 14,? +? 1,,?


21/22

eser9es

Aa8e 21

Tot*l

2J#6 2J#4 2J#5 2J#6 2J#4

1+2 1+2 20+1

5 ,# 1+ 10# 13

- 1# 5 104 114

1 - 1 4 2

- - +3 112 23

- - - 5# #

# # 131# 1# 14+#

++ 1,$" ",#$1 ","45

++ 154 124 201

+4 2, 133 131 1511

43.3? 45.5? 50.3? 45.+? 50.0?

2J#6 2J#4 2J#5 2J#6 2J#4

10, 5 23 243 +45

13 5 2+2 +, 20#

2 , 153 1+1 1+,

- 1 11 24 3

- - 4 1, +3

- - 1# +# 2#

+# +,# 2++# 232# 24,# 5 ,5 ",!6 $,5!3 $,31#

5 ,5 2, ++14 ++44

14 11 231+

35.,? 33.2? ,,.0?

2J#6 2J#4 2J#5 2J#6 2J#4

,,.4 ,+.5 2+,+. 224. 2,10.

10.3 .4# 31.4 .0# 11.4

0.+ - 11.5 125.5 1+.4

1.0 0.2 3.5 115.2 ++.5

- - +,.2 1+.+ +2,.3

- - 0.2# 5.3# .+#

1.4# 13.0# 15.5# 11.+# 21.0#

,+.5 .+ ",5"!5 ",4# ",33!

. +.0 12.5 1+., 1+.2

11.5 .3# 23+.3 +52.+ 311.4

11.5 .3# 23+.+ +4+.5 304.+

11.5 .3# 214.+ 2+.0 153.2


22/22

eser9es

102 +5 1, 234 +1,

+ 1,, 2150 ,01

1 , 14 1+2 2302

120 54 145, +, 553

1? 55? 5?

/10.1 /1.++# /4.03 /11.+ /14.+1

/14.1 /1+.05

/.50 /15.,4# /4.3 /.01 /13.22

/12.5 /10.24

/10.1 /1.++# /4.03 /11., /14.,

/14.1 /1+.2+

51? -+0? 1++? 13? 2+2?

23? 15?

51? -+0? 11? 124? 53?

+? 105?

51? -+0? 1+? 200? 2+?

23? 11?

oilgas dcf nav model

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