oil revenues & fiscal policy#wb philipdaniel

Oil Revenues and Fiscal PolicyPhilip Daniel Fiscal Affairs DepartmentInternational Monetary Fund

The PRMPS/COCPO Training WorkshopThe World BankMay 2007

The views in this presentation are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or its management.

Oil Revenues and Fiscal Policy OverviewChallenges posed by oil revenue Fiscal policy and macroeconomic stabilityThe non-oil primary balanceFiscal policy and intergenerational issuesOil fundsExpenditure managementSome guidelines

Oil-Producing Countries Differ

Importance of oil in the economy and fiscal accountsDevelopment of the non-oil economyMaturity of the oil industry / oil production horizonOwnership of oil industryFiscal regime for the oil sectorMacroeconomic situationFinancial position of the government and the public sector (gross and net debt, liquidity)Quality of institutions

Petroleum Revenues and StabilizationUncertainty and InstabilityUncertainty about value of resource and timing of revenuesInstability caused by volatility of oil pricesTaxes must respond robustly to realised outcomesStabilizationStabilize by total expenditure and revenue management, not by reliance on stable taxesGeneral economic stability Reduces investors risk premiaAvoids disruption of projectsStrengthens negotiating & trading positionVital to poverty reduction

Guidelines for Stability

Keep public sector demand in line with sustainable rate of capacity growthSave excess petroleum revenues abroadUse conservative price forecastsSave foreign assets in boom periods, use in downturnsNo need to fine tune the economyRely on automatic stabilizersOil funds are no substitute for sound fiscal management.

The Non-oil Primary BalanceKey fiscal indicator in petroleum exporters.

Derived from the overall fiscal balance, excluding oil-related revenues & expenditures and net interest.

Ideally, should include explicit or imputed expenditure on petroleum product subsidies if applicable.

Analytical importance of the non-oil primary balance:Reasonable indicator of domestic government demandMeasure of injection of oil revenue into the economyMeasure of fiscal effort and underlying fiscal policy stanceKey input into fiscal sustainability and intertemporal analysis

Size of the Non-oil Primary DeficitSome factors to take into account:macroeconomic objectivesshort-run vulnerabilitygovernment wealth, including oil in the ground and net accumulated financial assetssustainability

In some petroleum exporters, large non-oil primary deficits are sustainable and do not pose vulnerability concerns.

In others there may be a need to reduce the non-oil primary deficit due to vulnerability and sustainability considerations.In all cases, the non-oil primary deficit should be consistent with macroeconomic stability objectives.

Smoothing Fiscal Policy:Fiscal Considerations (1)Costly and inefficient to adjust spending rapidly and abruptly.

The level of spending should be determined in light of its likely quality and the capacity to execute it efficiently.

The sudden creation or enlargement of spending programs is risky.Increases in spending may exceed the governments planning, implementation, and management capacity waste.

Spending should not rise faster than transparent and careful procurement practices will allow.

Smoothing Fiscal Policy:Fiscal Considerations (2)Spending typically proves difficult to contain or streamline following expansions. Expenditure becomes entrenched and takes a life of its own.

Drastic spending cuts may lead to social instability, discouraging investment and reducing future growth.

The Non-oil Primary Balance and Transparency

Focus on the non-oil primary balance helps develop constituencies in support of prudent policies, thereby contributing to a less procyclical and more long term-oriented fiscal policy.

This balance should be highlighted in budget documents used in parliamentary and public discussion.

A clear presentation of the non-oil primary balance helps:Make the use of oil revenue more transparentDelineate policy choices more clearly

Example: Norways budget.

Long-Run Oil and Fiscal Dynamics:Trajectory of Net Government Wealth

volumes

This sheet produces volumes that feed the other two sheets, under three scenarios

Scenario selected:1.001.00

(0=low,1=medium,2=high)(selection made in sheet LMH)(selection made in sheet FAJA)

LightMediumHeavyFajaOrinoco

LowMedPDVHighLowMedPDVHigh

Initial stock in millions of barrels:S(0)970009700097000270000270000270000

Daily extraction rate in year zero (mm b)3.683.683.680.200.200.20

Extraction in year zero (1998)x(0)134313431343737373

Target, steady state daily extraction rate (mm b)6.758.00

Parameter for speed to steady state3.5080.00

Rate of growth of production, Med and Hi3.563.56

SelectedSelected

Code:01210121

LMHOrinoco

tYearLowMedPDVHighLowMedPDVHigh

019981343134313431343730730

1199916221548142415481082977.429

2200018311735150917351437782.077

32001198819261600192617811586.9115

42002210621021696210221217292.2172

52003219521771798217724518997.7189

620042262225319052253279200103.6200

720052312233220202332312215109.8215

820062350241421412414344225116.4225

920072378249822692498376233123.3233

1020082399258624052586408241130.7241

1120092415267625502676439249138.6249

1220102427277027032770470258146.9258

1320112436286728652867500267155.7267

1420122443296730372967530277165.0277

1520132448307132193071560286174.9286

1620142452317834123178589296185.4296

1720152455329036173290618307196.6307

1820162457340538343405647317208.4317

1920172459352440643524675328220.9328

2020182460364743083647703340234.1340

2120192461377545663775730352248.2352

2220202462390748403907757364263.1364

2320212462404451314044784377278.8377

2420222463418554394185811390295.6390

2520232463433257654332837404313.3404

2620242463448361114483863418332.1418

2720252463464064774640889433352.0433

2820262463480368664803914448373.2448

2920272463497172784971939463395.5463

3020282464514577155145963480419.3480

3120292464532581785325988496444.4496

32203024645511866855111012514471.1514

33203124645704918857041035532499.4532

34203224645904974059041059550529.3550

352033246461101032461101082570561.1570

362034246463241094363241105590594.7590

372035246465461160065461127610630.4610

382036246467751229667751149632668.3632

392037246470121303470121171654708.4654

402038246472571381672571193677750.9677

412039246475111464575111215700795.9700

422040246477741552377741236725843.7725

432041246480461645580461257750894.3750

442042246483281744283281277776947.9776

4520432464861918489861912988031004.8803

4620442464892119598892113188321065.1832

4720452464923320774923313388611129.0861

4820462464955622020955613588911196.8891

4920472464989123341989113779221268.6922

502048246410237247421023713969541344.7954

512049246410595262261059514159881425.4988

5220502464109662780010966143410221510.91022

5320512464113502946811350145210581601.51058

5420522464117473123611747147010951697.61095

5520532464121583311012158148811331799.51133

5620542464125843509712584150611731907.41173

5720552464130243720313024152412142021.91214

5820562464134803943513480154112572143.21257

5920572464139524180113952155813012271.81301

6020582464144404430914440157513462408.11346

6120592464149464696814946159213932552.61393

6220602464154694978615469160814422705.71442

6320612464160105277316010162514922868.11492

6420622464165715593916571164115453040.21545

6520632464171515929617151165715993222.61599

6620642464177516285317751167216553415.91655

6720652464183726662418372168817133620.91713

6820662464190157062219015170317733838.11773

6920672464196817485919681171818354068.41835

7020682464203707935120370173318994312.51899

7120692464210828411221082174819654571.31965

7220702464218208915921820176220344845.62034

7320712464225849450822584177721055136.32105

74207224642337510017923375179121795444.52179

75207324642419310618924193180522555771.22255

76207424642503911256125039181923346117.42334

77207524642591611931425916183324166484.52416

78207624642682312647326823184625006873.52500

79207724642776213406127762185925887286.02588

80207824642873314210528733187326787723.12678

81207924642973915063129739188627728186.52772

82208024643078015966930780189928698677.72869

83208124643185716925031857191129709198.32970

84208224643297217940532972192430749750.23074

852083246434126190169341261936318110335.33181

862084246435320201579353201948329310955.43293

872085246436557213674365571960340811612.73408

882086246437836226494378361972352712309.53527

892087246439160240084391601984365013048.03650

902088246440531254489405311996377813830.93778

912089246441950269758419502007391014660.83910

922090246443418285944434182019404715540.44047

932091246444938303100449382030418916472.84189

942092246446510321286465102041433617461.24336

952093246448138340563481382052448718508.94487

962094246449823360997498232063464419619.44644

972095246451567382657515672073480720796.64807

982096246453372405616533722084497522044.44975

992097246455240429953552402094514923367.05149

1002098246457173455751571732104533024769.15330

LMH

Volume scenario(Low=0, PDVmed=1, High=2)1.00

Parameters:SymbolValueLight Medium and Heavy Crude

Initial stock in millions of barrels:S(0)97000

Daily extraction rate in year zero (mm b)3.68


Target, steady state daily extraction rate (mm b),LOW scen6.75

Parameter for speed to steady state, LOW scenario3.5

Rate of growth of production, PDV/Medium scenario3.5

Rate of growth of production, HIGH vol. scenario6.0

Real interest rate (% annual)r3.5

Initial price13.50

extraction cost7.95

Initial rent (price net of cost)p(0)5.55

Real rate of growth of price0.0

Real rate of growth of production cost0.0

Real rate of growth of renth0.0

Initial Population growth raten2.0

Rate of decline in the population growth rate2.7

Rate of growth of real GDP per head (=real gdp grwth-pop grwth)2.01998 $GDP:97,507sum of thissum of this

In % of GDP:column:column:

ResultsSymbolValueMax. cons.Oil wealth305,900.92308,891.78

19984.5314

Duration of oil in yearsT+1311999-2003 r4.72961.01

Initial value of oil in the ground (US$,mill)L(0)305,9011999-2003 n4.7296

needs inputneeds input"output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output"needs input"output""output""output"needs inputneeds input"output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output"needs input"output""output""output""output"needs input

undiscounted

future valuediscountedNetDiscountedfinancialTargetedpopulationLast spurtShare of OW in GDP

productionrentreservesof reservesvalue of L(t)Revenuenet rev.consumptionSavingwealthtotal wealthgrowthof revenueRates of changeShares in real GDPShares in nominal GDPShare of max cons in GDPTotalResid.oilFin wealthOil wealthResidual oilFin wealthDiscountedDiscount

tYearx(t)p(t)S(t)L(t)NPV of L(t)x(t)*p(t)x(t)*p(t)/(1+r)^tc(t)x*p-cF(t)F*+L*n(t)x(T)*p(T)Real NGDPReal OGDPNom OGDPReal GDPNom GDPNGDPOGDPTGDPNOGDPOGDPNOGDPOGDPIn realIn nominalIn realIn nominalIn realIn realPopulationper capitaper capitaper capitanet oil revindex

0199813435.559700030590130590174557,4554433302103059012.000.008122216286162869750797507.........83.316.783.316.74.54.5314314314022.01390513905074551.00

1199915485.559565730889229844685918,3014685390731273120191.950.008263918769187691014081014081.715.24.081.518.581.518.54.64.6308308305322.4139051376513983011.0485911.00

2200017355.559410931081129014596298,9894937469272803180911.890.008437321036210361054091054092.112.13.980.020.080.020.04.74.7302302295722.9139051358631889891.0793041.04

3200119265.5592374311723281156106899,64151915498123913241141.840.008616123352233521095131095132.111.03.978.721.378.721.34.74.72962962851123.3139051337353296411.1199791.07

4200221025.55904483115702715151166610,16654456221185153300851.790.008823525486254861137211137212.49.13.877.622.477.622.44.84.82902902741623.71390513125780101661.15105221.11

5200321775.55883463104002613491208210,17357006382256023360021.740.009163926395263951180341180343.93.63.877.622.477.622.44.84.82852852632224.213905128451059101731.19105291.15

6200422535.55861693087592511761250510,17359556550331033418631.700.009513427319273191224531224533.83.53.777.722.377.722.34.94.92792792522724.613905125581346101731.23105291.19

7200523325.55839163066232410031294310,17362106733410413476641.650.009870628275282751269811269813.83.53.777.722.377.722.34.94.92742742413225.013905122631641101731.27105291.23

8200624145.55815843039592308301339610,17364656931494473534051.610.0010235229265292651316171316173.73.53.777.822.277.822.24.94.92692692313825.413905119591945101731.32105291.27

9200724985.55791703007332206571386510,17367197146583513590831.560.0010607530289302891363641363643.63.53.677.822.277.822.24.94.92632632214325.813905116452259101731.36105291.32

10200825865.55766722969082104841435010,17369737377677893646971.520.0010987431349313491412231412233.63.53.677.822.277.822.24.94.92582582104826.213905113202585101731.41105291.36

11200926765.55740862924482003111485210,17372267626777973702441.480.0011374932446324461461961461963.53.53.577.822.277.822.24.94.92532532005326.613905109832922101731.46105291.41

12201027705.55714102873111901381537210,17374787894884133757241.440.0011770133582335821512841512843.53.53.577.822.277.822.24.94.92482481905827.013905106333272101731.51105291.46

13201128675.55686402814571799651591010,17377298181996783811351.400.0012173034757347571564881564883.43.53.477.822.277.822.24.94.92442441806427.413905102683636101731.56105291.51

14201229675.55657742748411697921646710,173797884891116343864751.360.0012583635974359741618101618103.43.53.477.822.277.822.24.94.92392391706927.81390598884016101731.62105291.56

15201330715.55628072674171596191704310,173822688171243273917441.330.0013001937233372331672521672523.33.53.477.722.377.722.34.94.92342341607428.21390594924413101731.68105291.62

16201431785.55597362591371494461764010,173847391671378043969411.290.0013428038536385361728161728163.33.53.377.722.377.722.34.94.92302301508028.51390590774827101731.73105291.68

17201532905.55565572499491392731825710,173871895401521154020641.260.0013861839885398851785031785033.23.53.377.722.377.722.34.94.92252251408528.91390586445261101731.79105291.73

18201634055.55532682398011291001889610,173896199361673134071141.220.0014303441281412811843151843153.23.53.377.622.477.622.44.94.92212211309129.31390581905714101731.86105291.79

19201735245.55498632286371189271955810,1739201103561834524120891.190.0014752842726427261902541902543.13.53.277.522.577.522.54.84.82172171209629.61390577156190101731.92105291.86

20201836475.55463392163971087542024210,1739440108022005924169881.160.0015210044221442211963211963213.13.53.277.522.577.522.54.84.821221211010230.01390572166689101731.99105291.92

21201937755.5542692203020985812095110,1739677112742187924218121.130.0015674945769457692025182025183.13.53.277.422.677.422.64.84.820820810010830.31390566927212101732.06105291.99

22202039075.5538917188442884082168410,1739911117732381194265601.100.0016147847371473712088482088483.03.53.177.322.777.322.74.74.72042049011430.71390561437762101732.13105292.06

23202140445.5535010172594782352244310,17310143123002586384312321.070.0016628449029490292153132153133.03.53.177.222.877.222.84.74.72002008012031.01390555658339101732.21105292.13

24202241855.5530966155407680622322810,17310372128562804214358281.040.0017116950745507452219132219132.93.53.177.122.977.122.94.74.71961967012631.31390549588947101732.28105292.21

25202343325.5526781136805578892404110,17310599134433035424403471.010.0017613252521525212286532286532.93.53.077.023.077.023.04.64.61931936013331.71390543209585101732.36105292.28

26202444835.5522449116710477162488310,17310823140603280794447900.980.0018117454359543592355332355332.93.53.076.923.176.923.14.64.61891895013932.013905364810256101732.45105292.36

27202546405.551796695041375422575410,17311044147103541154491560.960.0018629456262562622425552425552.83.53.076.823.276.823.24.64.61851853914632.313905294210962101732.53105292.45

28202648035.551332571713273692665510,17311262153933817334534460.930.0019149358231582312497232497232.83.53.076.723.376.723.34.54.51821822915332.613905219911706101732.62105292.53

29202749715.55852346635171962758810,17311478161104110264576600.900.0019677060269602692570392570392.83.52.976.623.476.623.44.54.51781781816032.913905141712488101732.71105292.62

30202835525.553552197137023197137,0231169180234420864617990.8819,713.39221438430664306626450426450412.5-28.52.983.716.383.716.34.44.4175175716733.2139055941331170232.8172692.71

31202905.550000011900-119004658624658620.860.002721210027212127212122.9-100.02.9100.00.0100.00.04.44.4171171017133.51390501390502.9102.81

32203005.550000012107-121074698504698500.830.00279893002798932798932.90.02.9100.00.0100.00.04.34.3168168016833.81390501390503.0102.91

33203105.550000012311-123114737644737640.810.00287823002878232878232.80.02.8100.00.0100.00.04.34.3165165016534.11390501390503.1103.01

34203205.550000012512-125124776044776040.790.00295912002959122959122.80.02.8100.00.0100.00.04.24.2161161016134.31390501390503.2203.11

35203305.550000012709-127094813714813710.770.00304164003041643041642.80.02.8100.00.0100.00.04.24.2158158015834.61390501390503.3303.22

36203405.550000012904-129044850644850640.750.00312581003125813125812.80.02.8100.00.0100.00.04.14.1155155015534.91390501390503.4503.33

37203505.550000013096-130964886864886860.730.00321166003211663211662.70.02.7100.00.0100.00.04.14.1152152015235.11390501390503.5703.45

38203605.550000013284-132844922364922360.710.00329923003299233299232.70.02.7100.00.0100.00.04.04.0149149014935.41390501390503.7003.57

39203705.550000013469-134694957154957150.690.00338853003388533388532.70.02.7100.00.0100.00.04.04.0146146014635.71390501390503.8303.70

40203805.550000013652-136524991244991240.670.00347961003479613479612.70.02.7100.00.0100.00.03.93.9143143014335.91390501390503.9603.83

41203905.550000013831-138315024645024640.650.00357248003572483572482.70.02.7100.00.0100.00.03.93.9141141014136.11390501390504.1003.96

42204005.550000014007-140075057365057360.630.00366719003667193667192.70.02.7100.00.0100.00.03.83.8138138013836.41390501390504.2404.10

43204105.550000014179-141795089405089400.620.00376377003763773763772.60.02.6100.00.0100.00.03.83.8135135013536.61390501390504.3904.24

44204205.550000014349-143495120775120770.600.00386225003862253862252.60.02.6100.00.0100.00.03.73.7133133013336.81390501390504.5404.39

45204305.550000014516-145165151495151490.580.00396266003962663962662.60.02.6100.00.0100.00.03.73.7130130013037.01390501390504.7004.54

46204405.550000014679-146795181555181550.570.00406504004065044065042.60.02.6100.00.0100.00.03.63.6127127012737.31390501390504.8704.70

47204505.550000014840-148405210975210970.550.00416942004169424169422.60.02.6100.00.0100.00.03.63.6125125012537.51390501390505.0404.87

48204605.550000014997-149975239765239760.540.00427584004275844275842.60.02.6100.00.0100.00.03.53.5123123012337.71390501390505.2105.04

49204705.550000015152-151525267935267930.520.00438435004384354384352.50.02.5100.00.0100.00.03.53.5120120012037.91390501390505.4005.21

50204805.550000015303-153035295495295490.510.00449497004494974494972.50.02.5100.00.0100.00.03.43.4118118011838.11390501390505.5805.40

51204905.550000015452-154525322445322440.500.00460774004607744607742.50.02.5100.00.0100.00.03.43.4116116011638.31390501390505.7805.58

52205005.550000015598-155985348795348790.480.00472272004722724722722.50.02.5100.00.0100.00.03.33.3113113011338.51390501390505.9805.78

53205105.550000015740-157405374575374570.470.00483993004839934839932.50.02.5100.00.0100.00.03.33.3111111011138.71390501390506.1905.98

54205205.550000015880-158805399765399760.460.00495942004959424959422.50.02.5100.00.0100.00.03.23.2109109010938.81390501390506.4106.19

55205305.550000016017-160175424405424400.440.00508123005081235081232.50.02.5100.00.0100.00.03.23.2107107010739.01390501390506.6306.41

56205405.550000016151-161515448475448470.430.00520541005205415205412.40.02.4100.00.0100.00.03.13.1105105010539.21390501390506.8706.63

57205505.550000016283-162835472005472000.420.00533199005331995331992.40.02.4100.00.0100.00.03.13.1103103010339.41390501390507.1106.87

58205605.550000016411-164115495005495000.410.00546104005461045461042.40.02.4100.00.0100.00.03.03.0101101010139.51390501390507.3507.11

59205705.550000016537-165375517465517460.400.00559259005592595592592.40.02.4100.00.0100.00.03.03.0999909939.71390501390507.6107.35

60205805.550000016661-166615539415539410.390.00572669005726695726692.40.02.4100.00.0100.00.02.92.9979709739.81390501390507.8807.61

61205905.550000016781-167815560855560850.380.00586339005863395863392.40.02.4100.00.0100.00.02.92.9959509540.01390501390508.1507.88

62206005.550000016899-168995581805581800.370.00600274006002746002742.40.02.4100.00.0100.00.02.82.8939309340.11390501390508.4408.15

63206105.550000017015-170155602255602250.360.00614479006144796144792.40.02.4100.00.0100.00.02.82.8919109140.31390501390508.7308.44

64206205.550000017128-171285622235622230.350.00628960006289606289602.40.02.4100.00.0100.00.02.72.7898908940.41390501390509.0408.73

65206305.550000017238-172385641735641730.340.00643721006437216437212.30.02.3100.00.0100.00.02.72.7888808840.61390501390509.3609.04

66206405.550000017346-173465660785660780.330.00658769006587696587692.30.02.3100.00.0100.00.02.62.6868608640.71390501390509.6809.36

67206505.550000017452-174525679375679370.320.00674108006741086741082.30.02.3100.00.0100.00.02.62.6848408440.813905013905010.0209.68

68206605.550000017555-175555697525697520.310.00689744006897446897442.30.02.3100.00.0100.00.02.52.5838308341.013905013905010.37010.02

69206705.550000017656-176565715245715240.300.00705684007056847056842.30.02.3100.00.0100.00.02.52.5818108141.113905013905010.74010.37

70206805.550000017755-177555732535732530.290.00721933007219337219332.30.02.3100.00.0100.00.02.52.5797907941.213905013905011.11010.74

71206905.550000017851-178515749415749410.290.00738497007384977384972.30.02.3100.00.0100.00.02.42.4787807841.313905013905011.50011.11

72207005.550000017945-179455765885765880.280.00755382007553827553822.30.02.3100.00.0100.00.02.42.4767607641.513905013905011.90011.50

73207105.550000018038-180385781955781950.270.00772595007725957725952.30.02.3100.00.0100.00.02.32.3757507541.613905013905012.32011.90

74207205.550000018127-181275797635797630.260.00790142007901427901422.30.02.3100.00.0100.00.02.32.3737307341.713905013905012.75012.32

75207305.550000018215-182155812935812930.260.00808030008080308080302.30.02.3100.00.0100.00.02.32.3727207241.813905013905013.20012.75

76207405.5500000582785-5827855827855827850.250.00826265008262658262652.30.02.3100.00.0100.00.070.570.5717107141.913905013905013.66013.20

13.66

19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

012345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546

Oil sector

Net revenue745579028376887994119976105751120911882125951335014151150001590016854178661893820074212782255523908253432686428475301843199533915359492748900000000000000000

Taxes paid to Oil Fund745579028376887994119976105751120911882125951335014151150001590016854178661893820074212782255523908253432686428475301843199533915359492748900000000000000000

Overall balance0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Oil Fund

Revenue745580098600923299071063011402122281311314060150741616017324185701990521335228682451026269281543017232334346503713039785426284567148928417971537815518156541578815920160491617516299164211654016657167721688416994171021720717310

Oil taxes received745579028376887994119976105751120911882125951335014151150001590016854178661893820074212782255523908253432686428475301843199533915359492748900000000000000000

Interest on financial assets0107224353496653827101912311465172420092323266930503470393044364991559862646992778786559602106331175712979143071537815518156541578815920160491617516299164211654016657167721688416994171021720717310

Expenditure4405465549065158541156645917617164246677692971807431768079288174841986628904914393809615984810078103061053110754109741119111405116171182512031122331243312629128221301313200133841356513743139181409014258511887

Transfers to nonoil sector4405465549065158541156645917617164246677692971807431768079288174841986628904914393809615984810078103061053110754109741119111405116171182512031122331243312629128221301313200133841356513743139181409014258511887

Interest due0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Current primary balance304932473470372140014312465750395458591864226971757082218927969110518114111237513412145281572817015183971987821463231612497616298-11405-11617-11825-12031-12233-12433-12629-12822-13013-13200-13384-13565-13743-13918-14090-14258-511887

Current balance3049335436944074449749665485605866897383814589809893108901197713161144491584717365190102079222719248022705229479320973491737954306063973390138293758368736163546347734083340327332073141307630122949-494577

Overall balance3049335436944074449749665485605866897383814589809893108901197713161144491584717365190102079222719248022705229479320973491737954306063973390138293758368736163546347734083340327332073141307630122949-494577

Non oil sector

Transfers from Oil Fund4405465549065158541156645917617164246677692971807431768079288174841986628904914393809615984810078103061053110754109741119111405116171182512031122331243312629128221301313200133841356513743139181409014258511887

Net non-oil current primary balance-4711-4411-4651-4892-5133-5373-5613-5853-6092-6330-6566-6801-7035-7266-7496-7723-7947-8169-8388-8605-8818-9027-9233-9436-9635-9830-10021-10208-10391-10569-10742-10912-11076-11236-11390-11540-11684-11823-11957-12085-12208-12325-12436-12541-12640-510195

Net interest due1054134114021465153116001672174718251908199320832177227523772484259627132835296230963235338135333692385840314213440246004807502452505486573359916261654268377144746678028153852089039304

Interest on financial assets

Interest due on nonoil financial net debt1054134114021465153116001672174718251908199320832177227523772484259627132835296230963235338135333692385840314213440246004807502452505486573359916261654268377144746678028153852089039304

Capital expenditure0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Current nonoil primary balance (excl. transfer)-4711-4411-4651-4892-5133-5373-5613-5853-6092-6330-6566-6801-7035-7266-7496-7723-7947-8169-8388-8605-8818-9027-9233-9436-9635-9830-10021-10208-10391-10569-10742-10912-11076-11236-11390-11540-11684-11823-11957-12085-12208-12325-12436-12541-12640-510195

Current nonoil balance-5765-5753-6053-6357-6663-6973-7285-7600-7917-8237-8560-8884-9212-9541-9873-10207-10543-10882-11223-11567-11913-12262-12614-12969-13327-13688-14052-14421-14793-15169-15550-15935-16326-16722-17123-17531-17945-18365-18794-19229-19673-20126-20588-21060-21543-519499

Primary balance (excl. transfer)-4711-4411-4651-4892-5133-5373-5613-5853-6092-6330-6566-6801-7035-7266-7496-7723-7947-8169-8388-8605-8818-9027-9233-9436-9635-9830-10021-10208-10391-10569-10742-10912-11076-11236-11390-11540-11684-11823-11957-12085-12208-12325-12436-12541-12640-510195

Primary balance-306244255266278291304318332347362379396414432452472493515539563588615642671701733766800836874913955997104210891138118912431299135714181482154916191692

Overall nonoil balance (excl. transfer)-5765-5753-6053-6357-6663-6973-7285-7600-7917-8237-8560-8884-9212-9541-9873-10207-10543-10882-11223-11567-11913-12262-12614-12969-13327-13688-14052-14421-14793-15169-15550-15935-16326-16722-17123-17531-17945-18365-18794-19229-19673-20126-20588-21060-21543-519499

Overall balance-1360-1097-1147-1198-1252-1309-1368-1429-1493-1561-1631-1704-1781-1861-1945-2032-2124-2219-2319-2424-2533-2647-2766-2890-3020-3156-3298-3447-3602-3764-3933-4110-4295-4489-4691-4902-5122-5353-5594-5845-6108-6383-6670-6971-7284-7612

Public sector

Net current primary balance2743349137253987427946034961535657906265678473507966863493591014310990119051289013951150911631617630190392054922165238942574217099-10569-10742-10912-11076-11236-11390-11540-11684-11823-11957-12085-12208-12325-12436-12541-12640-510195

Net interest due1054123511781111103594684472859444227074-146-395-673-986-1334-1723-2156-2636-3168-3757-4406-5122-5910-6776-7725-8766-9905-10778-10710-10630-10538-10434-10316-10184-10039-9879-9704-9513-9306-9082-8841-8582-8304-8006


Interest due on financial debt1054134114021465153116001672174718251908199320832177227523772484259627132835296230963235338135333692385840314213440246004807502452505486573359916261654268377144746678028153852089039304


Current primary balance2743349137253987427946034961535657906265678473507966863493591014310990119051289013951150911631617630190392054922165238942574217099-10569-10742-10912-11076-11236-11390-11540-11684-11823-11957-12085-12208-12325-12436-12541-12640-510195

Current balance16892256254728763244365741174628519658236514727681129029100321112912325136281504616587182592007222036241612645928941316193450827004209-32-281-538-802-1075-1355-1645-1944-2253-2572-2902-3242-3594-3959-4336-502189

Primary balance2743349137253987427946034961535657906265678473507966863493591014310990119051289013951150911631617630190392054922165238942574217099-10569-10742-10912-11076-11236-11390-11540-11684-11823-11957-12085-12208-12325-12436-12541-12640-510195

Overall balance16892256254728763244365741174628519658236514727681129029100321112912325136281504616587182592007222036241612645928941316193450827004209-32-281-538-802-1075-1355-1645-1944-2253-2572-2902-3242-3594-3959-4336-502189

Financing-1689-2256-2547-2876-3244-3657-4117-4628-5196-5823-6514-7276-8112-9029-10032-11129-12325-13628-15046-16587-18259-20072-22036-24161-26459-28941-31619-34508-27004-2093228153880210751355164519442253257229023242359439594336502189

In percent of GDPAve 99-03-4.4

Permissible primary nonoil balance with ctant debt-4.831715976985436-4.33-4.37-4.40-4.41-4.42-4.42-4.41-4.39-4.37-4.34-4.30-4.25-4.20-4.15-4.09-4.03-3.96-3.90-3.82-3.75-3.67-3.60-3.52-3.44-3.35-3.27-3.19-3.11-3.02-2.94-2.86-2.78-2.70-2.62-2.54-2.46-2.38-2.30-2.23-2.15-2.08-2.01-1.94-1.87-72.190.0

Permissible primary nonoil balance without debt-4.52-4.57-4.61-4.64-4.65-4.66-4.66-4.65-4.63-4.61-4.58-4.54-4.49-4.44-4.39-4.33-4.27-4.20-4.13-4.06-3.99-3.91-3.83-3.76-3.68-3.59-3.51-3.43-3.35-3.26-3.18-3.10-3.02-2.94-2.85-2.77-2.70-2.62-2.54-2.47-2.39-2.32-2.25-2.18-2.11-72.43

Difference (+ is more restrictive)-0.313822573677191130.240.240.240.240.24

Ave 99-03-4.6

Oil Fund Parameters

Oil Fund net assets bop (percent of GDP)

Stock of fin. assets bop031566627104511466719321244613013736407433305097259402686967893590206102603116224131179147581165554185230206749230264255934283932314443347664383803423086454763458875462913466876470765474580478323481993485592489119492576495964499283502534505718508835511887

Oil wealth bop30396430688730945031161131332831455431523831532631476131348031141630849830464929978629382228666127820326834025695524392522911821239219359617256814913612311694310625092748900

Total OF oil + financial wealth bop303964310043316077322062327995333875339698345463351168356810362388367900373345378722384028389264394428399519404536409480414348419142423860428502433068437559441973446312450575454763458875462913466876470765474580478323481993485592489119492576495964499283502534505718508835511887

Oil in the ground bop97.0095.6694.2392.7291.1289.4387.6385.7383.7181.5679.3076.8974.3471.6468.7765.7462.5259.1055.4951.6547.5943.2838.7233.8828.7423.3117.5411.434.950.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Production3.683.904.134.384.654.925.225.535.876.226.596.997.407.858.328.829.359.9110.5011.1311.8012.5113.2614.0614.9015.7916.7417.7513.570.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Net oil price5.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.555.55

Oil in the ground eop95.6694.2392.7291.1289.4387.6385.7383.7181.5679.3076.8974.3471.6468.7765.7462.5259.1055.4951.6547.5943.2838.7233.8828.7423.3117.5411.434.950.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Stock of OF fin. assets eop30496403100971417118668236332911835176418654924857393663737626687156991331122941267431425901599561789661997582224772472792743313038103359073708244087794393844433584472584510874548454585324621484656944691714725794759194791924823994855404886164916284945770

Targeted total wealth303964310043316077322062327995333875339698345463351168356810362388367900373345378722384028389264394428399519404536409480414348419142423860428502433068437559441973446312450575454763458875462913466876470765474580478323481993485592489119492576495964499283502534505718508835511887

Required saving304932473470372140014312465750395458591864226971757082218927969110518114111237513412145281572817015183971987821463231612497616298-11405-11617-11825-12031-12233-12433-12629-12822-13013-13200-13384-13565-13743-13918-14090-14258-511887

Maximum consumption (for oil wealth p.c.= k)4405465549065158541156645917617164246677692971807431768079288174841986628904914393809615984810078103061053110754109741119111405116171182512031122331243312629128221301313200133841356513743139181409014258511887

Stock of fin. assets bop (control)31566627104511466719321244613013736407433305097259402686967893590206102603116224131179147581165554185230206749230264255934283932314443347664383803423086454763458875462913466876470765474580478323481993485592489119492576495964499283502534505718508835511887

Oil wealth per capita13817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817

Discounted oil revenue (viewed from t=1)74557635781980088202840086038810902392419464969399271016710412106641092111185114551173212016123061260312907132191353913866142001049100000000000000000

19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

012345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546

Non oil sector debt dynamics

Stock of net financial debt bop (debt +)243882548526632278312908330392317603318934682362433787439578413594322045165471984932251541538605628458817614646423067120701407329776595800428364487407913419545199746104235108926113827118950124302129896135741141849148233154903161874169158176770

Financing of nonoil sector during the period1360109711471198125213091368142914931561163117041781186119452032212422192319242425332647276628903020315632983447360237643933411042954489469149025122535355945845610863836670697172847612

Stock of net financial debt eop (debt +)243882548526632278312908330392317603318934682362433787439578413594322045165471984932251541538605628458817614646423067120701407329776595800428364487407913419545199746104235108926113827118950124302129896135741141849148233154903161874169158176770

(Check)0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

In percent of GDP

Stock of net financial debt bop (debt +)25.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.0

Financing of nonoil sector during the period1.3951.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.077

Stock of net financial debt eop (debt +)25.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.011

Stock of net financial debt bop (per capita)1109113611641194122512581292132713651403144414861531157716251675172817821840189919612026209421642238231423942478256526562750284929523059317132883410353736693807395241024259442345934771

Total wealth dynamics

Total net wealth (bop)279576284558289445294231298912303483307939312274316485320567324514328322331986335501338863342066345106347978350676353195355531357678359630361382362928364262365379366271366932367355367534367461367129366530365654364495363044361289359223356835354115351050347631343844339677335117

Oil wealth303964310043316077322062327995333875339698345463351168356810362388367900373345378722384028389264394428399519404536409480414348419142423860428502433068437559441973446312450575454763458875462913466876470765474580478323481993485592489119492576495964499283502534505718508835511887

Oil in the ground30396430688730945031161131332831455431523831532631476131348031141630849830464929978629382228666127820326834025695524392522911821239219359617256814913612311694310625092748900000000000000000

Oil Fund financial assets031566627104511466719321244613013736407433305097259402686967893590206102603116224131179147581165554185230206749230264255934283932314443347664383803423086454763458875462913466876470765474580478323481993485592489119492576495964499283502534505718508835511887

Nonoil net financial debt (debt +)243882548526632278312908330392317603318934682362433787439578413594322045165471984932251541538605628458817614646423067120701407329776595800428364487407913419545199746104235108926113827118950124302129896135741141849148233154903161874169158176770

In percent of GDP


Oil wealth312304297289282275268260253246239232226219213206200194188182176171165160154149144139135130126121117113109105101989491878481787572

Oil in the ground3123012912802692592482382272162061951841731631521411301191089786756453423120800000000000000000



In per capita terms


Oil wealth13817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817138171381713817

Oil in the ground1381713676135271336813199130171282212611123841213911873115861127410937105711017597459280877682307640700163115564475838882948193584300000000000000000



Macroeconomic parameters

Interest rate oil sector3.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.50

Discount index oil sector1.001.041.071.111.151.191.231.271.321.361.411.461.511.561.621.681.731.791.861.921.992.062.132.212.282.362.452.532.622.712.812.913.013.113.223.333.453.573.703.833.964.104.244.394.544.70

Interest rate nonoil sector5.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.50

Discount index nonoil sector1.001.061.111.171.241.311.381.451.531.621.711.801.902.012.122.232.362.482.622.772.923.083.253.433.613.814.024.244.484.724.985.265.555.856.176.516.877.257.658.078.518.989.4810.0010.5511.13

Population growth2.001.951.891.841.791.741.701.651.611.561.521.481.441.401.361.331.291.261.221.191.161.131.101.071.041.010.980.960.930.900.880.860.830.810.790.770.750.730.710.690.670.650.630.620.600.58

Population (m)22.0022.4422.8823.3123.7424.1624.5925.0025.4225.8226.2326.6327.0227.4127.7928.1728.5528.9229.2829.6429.9930.3430.6831.0131.3431.6731.9932.3032.6132.9133.2133.5033.7934.0734.3534.6234.8935.1535.4035.6535.9036.1436.3736.6036.8337.05

Difference GDP growth and population growth2.552.612.662.712.762.802.852.892.942.983.023.063.103.143.173.213.243.283.313.343.373.403.433.463.493.523.543.573.603.623.643.673.693.713.733.753.773.793.813.833.853.873.883.903.92

Real GDP in constant 1998 US$ million97507101895106480111272116279121512126980132694138665144905151426158240165361172802180578188704197196206070215343225033235160245742256800268356280432293052306239320020334421349470365196381630398803416749435503455101475580496981519345542716567138592659619329647199676323706757

Oil GDP162861726318299193972056021794231022448825957275142916530915327703473636820390304137143854464854927452230553645868662207659406989674090785356005300000000000000000

Nonoil GDP8122284632881829187695719997181038781082061127081173911222611273251325911380661437581496751558241622161688581757591829291903781981142061492144932231562321492414852743673494700000000000000000

Rates of growth of real GDP

GDP4.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.50

Oil GDP6.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.00-23.53-100.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Nonoil GDP4.204.194.194.184.184.174.174.164.154.154.144.144.134.124.124.114.104.094.094.084.074.064.064.054.044.034.0213.6227.370.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Shares in real GDP1.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Oil0.170.170.170.170.180.180.180.180.190.190.190.200.200.200.200.210.210.210.220.220.220.230.230.230.240.240.240.250.180.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Nonoil0.830.830.830.830.820.820.820.820.810.810.810.800.800.800.800.790.790.790.780.780.780.770.770.770.760.760.760.750.821.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Rates of growth of real GDP per capita

GDP2.552.612.662.712.762.802.852.892.942.983.023.063.103.143.173.213.243.283.313.343.373.403.433.463.493.523.543.573.603.623.643.673.693.713.733.753.773.793.813.833.853.873.883.903.92

Oil GDP4.054.114.164.214.264.304.354.394.444.484.524.564.604.644.674.714.744.784.814.844.874.904.934.964.995.025.04-24.46-100.900.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Nonoil GDP2.252.302.352.392.432.482.522.552.592.632.662.702.732.762.792.822.852.872.902.922.952.972.993.013.033.053.0712.6926.470.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

In percent of GDP012345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546

Oil sector

Net revenue7.67.87.98.08.18.2

Taxes paid to Oil Fund7.67.87.98.08.18.2

Overall balance0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Oil Fund

Revenue7.67.98.18.38.58.7

Oil taxes received7.67.87.98.08.18.2

Interest on financial assets0.00.10.20.30.40.5

Expenditure4.54.64.64.64.74.7

Transfers to nonoil sector4.54.64.64.64.74.7

Interest due

Current primary balance3.13.23.33.33.43.5

Current balance3.13.33.53.73.94.1


Non oil sector

Transfers from Oil Fund4.54.64.64.64.74.7

Net non-oil current primary balance-4.8-4.3-4.4-4.4-4.4-4.4

Net interest due1.11.31.31.31.31.3


Interest due on nonoil financial net debt1.11.31.31.31.31.3

Capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Current nonoil primary balance (excl. transfer)-4.8-4.3-4.4-4.4-4.4-4.4

Current nonoil balance-5.9-5.6-5.7-5.7-5.7-5.7

Primary balance (excl. transfer)-4.8-4.3-4.4-4.4-4.4-4.4

Primary balance-0.30.20.20.20.20.2

Overall nonoil balance (excl. transfer)-5.9-5.6-5.7-5.7-5.7-5.7

Overall balance-1.4-1.1-1.1-1.1-1.1-1.1

Public sector

Net current primary balance2.83.43.53.63.73.8



Interest due on financial debt1.11.31.31.31.31.3




Primary balance2.83.43.53.63.73.8


Financing-1.7-2.2-2.4-2.6-2.8-3.0

Ave 99-03-4.4

Permissible primary nonoil balance with debt-4.83-4.33-4.37-4.40-4.41-4.42

Permissible primary nonoil balance without debt-4.52-4.57-4.61-4.64-4.65-4.66


Ave 99-03-4.6

For graph: non-oil financial debt-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01

non-oil financial debt per capita-1,108.55-1,135.72-1,164.17-1,193.95-1,225.11-1,257.69-1,291.76-1,327.36-1,364.56-1,403.41-1,443.99-1,486.36-1,530.60-1,576.77-1,624.95-1,675.24-1,727.70-1,782.44-1,839.55-1,899.12-1,961.26-2,026.08-2,093.69-2,164.20-2,237.74-2,314.44-2,394.44-2,477.86-2,564.87-2,655.60-2,750.24-2,848.93-2,951.86-3,059.21-3,171.17-3,287.95-3,409.74-3,536.77-3,669.27-3,807.48-3,951.64-4,102.01-4,258.87-4,422.50-4,593.20

12/31/1997

Non-oil public sector net debt1111033

Non-oil nonfinancial public sector2524388

Non-oil public sector gross debt2726388

Central Government2524435

Domestic debt32492

External debt2321943

Severance00

NFPEs21953

Non-oil public sector financial assets22000

Central Government00

NFPEs00

FIV22000

BCV-14-13355

Gross debt65545

Domestic debt55190

External debt0355

Net international reserves1918900

&A

Page &P

FAJA

Volume scenario(Low=0, PDVmed=1, High=2)1.00

Parameters:SymbolValue

Initial stock in millions of barrels:S(0)270000ORINOCO

Daily extraction rate in year zero (mm b)0.20


Target, steady state daily extraction rate (mm b), LOW scen.8.00

Parameter for speed to steady state, LOW scenario80.00

Rate of growth of production, PDV/Medium scenario3.5

Rate of growth of production, HIGH vol. scenario6.0

Real interest rate (% annual)r3.5

Initial price13.50

extraction cost7.95

Initial rent (price net of cost)p(0)5.55

Real rate of growth of price0.0

Real rate of growth of production cost0.0

Real rate of growth of renth0.0

Initial Population growth raten2.0

Rate of decline in the population growth rate2.7

Rate of growth of real GDP per head (=real gdp grwth-pop grwth)2.01998 $GDP:97,507sum of thissum of this

In % of GDP:column:column:

ResultsSymbolValueMax. cons.Oil wealth70,119.7972,573.98

19981.072

Duration of oil in yearsT+1771999-2003 r1.1681.04

Initial value of oil in the ground (US$,mill)L(0)70,1201999-2003 n1.168

needs inputneeds input"output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output"needs input"output""output""output"needs inputneeds input"output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output""output"needs input"output""output""output""output"needs input

undiscounted

future valuediscountedNetDiscountedfinancialTargetedpopulationLast spurtShare of OW in GDP

productionrentreservesof reservesvalue of L(t)Revenuenet rev.consumptionSavingwealthtotal wealthgrowthof revenueRates of changeShares in real GDPShares in nominal GDPShare of max cons in GDPTotalResid.oilFin wealthOil wealthResidual oilFin wealthDiscountedDiscount

tYearx(t)p(t)S(t)L(t)NPV of L(t)x(t)*p(t)x(t)*p(t)/(1+r)^tc(t)x*p-cF(t)F*+L*n(t)x(T)*p(T)Real NGDPReal OGDPNom OGDPReal GDPNom GDPNGDPOGDPTGDPNOGDPOGDPNOGDPOGDPIn realIn nominalIn realIn nominalIn realIn realPopulationper capitaper capitaper capitanet oil revindex

0199805.552700007012070120001016-10160701202.000.008122216286162869750797507.........83.316.783.316.71.01.0727272022.031873187001.00

11999295.5527000072574701201611561074-913-1052715221.950.008263918769187691014081014081.70.04.081.518.581.518.51.11.1717172-122.431873234-471561.041611.00

22000775.5526997174947699644273991132-704-2033729141.890.00555754983449834105409105409-32.7165.53.952.747.352.747.31.11.1696971-222.931873276-893991.074131.04

320011155.5526989477128695656385761190-552-2834742951.840.00350857442874428109513109513-36.949.43.932.068.032.068.01.11.1686870-323.331873309-1225761.115961.07

420021725.5526977979167689909558321248-294-3504756631.790.002403111319111319113721113721-93.249.63.82.197.92.197.91.11.1676770-323.731873335-1488321.158611.11

520031895.55269607809506815810498831307-258-3930770201.740.00-4287122321122321118034118034-278.49.93.8-3.6103.6-3.6103.61.11.1656569-324.231873350-1638831.199141.15

620042005.55269418826986727511109031365-255-4335783631.700.00-698712944012944012245312245363.05.83.7-5.7105.7-5.7105.71.11.1646468-424.631873364-1769031.239351.19

720052155.55269218844436637211939381423-230-4750796931.650.00-1216713914813914812698112698174.27.53.7-9.6109.6-9.6109.61.11.1636367-425.031873377-1909381.279711.23

820062255.55269003861646543412499481482-233-5155810091.610.00-1400314562014562013161713161715.14.73.7-10.6110.6-10.6110.61.11.1626265-425.431873390-2039481.329821.27

920072335.55268778878876448512929481540-248-5577823101.560.00-143531507171507171363641363642.53.53.6-10.5110.5-10.5110.51.11.1606064-425.831873403-2169481.369821.32

1020082415.55268545896256353713389481598-261-6028835971.520.00-147691559921559921412231412232.93.53.6-10.5110.5-10.5110.51.11.1595963-426.231873417-2309481.419821.36

1120092495.55268304913786258913859481656-272-6509848691.480.00-152561614521614521461961461963.33.53.5-10.4110.4-10.4110.41.11.1585863-426.631873432-2449481.469821.41

1220102585.55268055931436164014339481714-281-7018861251.440.00-158191671031671031512841512843.73.53.5-10.5110.5-10.5110.51.11.1575762-527.031873447-2609481.519821.46

1320112675.55267796949206069214839481772-288-7555873651.400.00-164631729511729511564881564884.13.53.4-10.5110.5-10.5110.51.11.1565661-527.431873463-2769481.569821.51

1420122775.55267529967075974415359481829-294-8118885891.360.00-171941790041790041618101618104.43.53.4-10.6110.6-10.6110.61.11.1555560-527.831873479-2929481.629821.56

1520132865.55267253985035879615899481886-297-8706897971.330.00-180171852701852701672521672524.83.53.4-10.8110.8-10.8110.81.11.1545459-528.231873496-3099481.689821.62

1620142965.552669661003065784716449481942-298-9318909881.290.00-189381917541917541728161728165.13.53.3-11.0111.0-11.0111.01.11.1535358-528.531873514-3269481.739821.68

1720153075.552666701021155689917029481998-296-9952921631.260.00-199621984651984651785031785035.43.53.3-11.2111.2-11.2111.21.11.1525257-628.931873531-3449481.799821.73

1820163175.552663631039285595117619482054-292-10607933201.220.00-210972054122054121843151843155.73.53.3-11.4111.4-11.4111.41.11.1515156-629.331873550-3629481.869821.79

1920173285.552660461057425500218239482109-286-11281944611.190.00-223482126012126011902541902545.93.53.2-11.7111.7-11.7111.71.11.1505056-629.631873568-3819481.929821.86

2020183405.552657181075565405418879482164-277-11972955841.160.00-237212200422200421963211963216.13.53.2-12.1112.1-12.1112.11.11.1494955-630.031873586-3999481.999821.92

2120193525.552653781093675310619539482218-265-12678966891.130.00-252252277442277442025182025186.33.53.2-12.5112.5-12.5112.51.11.1484854-630.331873605-4189482.069821.99

2220203645.552650261111745215720219482272-250-13396977781.100.00-268662357152357152088482088486.53.53.1-12.9112.9-12.9112.91.11.1474753-630.731873624-4379482.139822.06

2320213775.552646611129735120920929482325-233-14124988491.070.00-286522439652439652153132153136.63.53.1-13.3113.3-13.3113.31.11.1464652-731.031873643-4559482.219822.13

2420223905.552642851147625026121659482377-212-14860999021.040.00-305902525032525032219132219136.83.53.1-13.8113.8-13.8113.81.11.1454552-731.331873661-4749482.289822.21

2520234045.552638941165374931222419482429-188-155991009381.010.00-326882613412613412286532286536.93.53.0-14.3114.3-14.3114.31.11.1444451-731.731873680-4939482.369822.28

2620244185.552634911182974836423209482481-161-163401019560.980.00-349552704882704882355332355336.93.53.0-14.8114.8-14.8114.81.11.1434350-732.031873698-5119482.459822.36

2720254335.552630731200364741624019482531-131-170791029570.960.00-374002799552799552425552425557.03.53.0-15.4115.4-15.4115.41.01.0424249-732.331873716-5299482.539822.45

2820264485.552626401217534646724859482582-97-178121039410.930.00-400302897532897532497232497237.03.53.0-16.0116.0-16.0116.01.01.0424249-732.631873733-5469482.629822.53

2920274635.552621921234424551925729482631-59-185361049070.900.00-428562998952998952570392570397.13.52.9-16.7116.7-16.7116.71.01.0414148-732.931873750-5639482.719822.62

3020284805.552617291251014457126629482680-18-192461058550.880.00-458873103913103912645042645047.13.52.9-17.3117.3-17.3117.31.01.0404047-733.231873767-5799482.819822.71

3120294965.55261249126725436222755948272827-199381067870.860.00-491343212553212552721212721217.13.52.9-18.1118.1-18.1118.11.01.0393947-733.531873782-5959482.919822.81

3220305145.55260753128309426742851948277576-206081077010.830.00-526053324993324992798932798937.13.52.9-18.8118.8-18.8118.81.01.0383846-733.831873797-6109483.019822.91

3320315325.552602391298484172629519482822129-212501085980.810.00-563143441363441362878232878237.03.52.8-19.6119.6-19.6119.61.01.0383845-734.131873811-6249483.119823.01

3420325505.552597081313394077830549482868186-218611094780.790.00-602693561813561812959122959127.03.52.8-20.4120.4-20.4120.41.01.0373744-734.331873824-6369483.229823.11

3520335705.552591571327743982931619482913248-224331103420.770.00-644843686473686473041643041647.03.52.8-21.2121.2-21.2121.21.01.0363644-734.631873835-6489483.339823.22

3620345905.552585881341503888132729482958314-229611111880.750.00-689693815503815503125813125817.03.52.8-22.1122.1-22.1122.10.90.9363643-734.931873845-6589483.459823.33

3720356105.552579981354583793333869483002385-234401120180.730.00-737383949043949043211663211666.93.52.7-23.0123.0-23.0123.00.90.9353542-735.131873854-6679483.579823.45

3820366325.552573881366943698435059483045460-238621128320.710.00-788034087264087263299233299236.93.52.7-23.9123.9-23.9123.90.90.9343441-735.431873861-6749483.709823.57

3920376545.552567561378513603636289483087540-242211136300.690.00-841784230314230313388533388536.83.52.7-24.8124.8-24.8124.80.90.9343441-735.731873867-6799483.839823.70

4020386775.552561031389213508837559483129625-245101144110.670.00-898774378374378373479613479616.83.52.7-25.8125.8-25.8125.80.90.9333340-735.931873870-6839483.969823.83

4120397005.552554261398973413938869483170716-247211151770.650.00-959134531624531623572483572486.73.52.7-26.8126.8-26.8126.80.90.9323239-736.131873871-6849484.109823.96

4220407255.552547261407723319140229483211811-248451159270.630.00-1023034690224690223667193667196.73.52.7-27.9127.9-27.9127.90.90.9323238-736.431873870-6839484.249824.10

4320417505.552540011415363224341639483250913-248751166610.620.00-1090614854384854383763773763776.63.52.6-29.0129.0-29.0129.00.90.9313138-736.631873867-6809484.399824.24

4420427765.5525325114218131294430994832891019-248011173800.600.00-1162045024285024283862253862256.53.52.6-30.1130.1-30.1130.10.90.9303037-636.831873861-6739484.549824.39

4520438035.5525247514269830346445994833271132-246141180840.580.00-1237485200135200133962663962666.53.52.6-31.2131.2-31.2131.20.80.8303036-637.031873852-6649484.709824.54

4620448325.5525167114307729398461594833651251-243041187730.570.00-1317105382145382144065044065046.43.52.6-32.4132.4-32.4132.40.80.8292935-637.331873839-6529484.879824.70

4720458615.5525084014330828449477794834021375-238601194480.550.00-1401095570515570514169424169426.43.52.6-33.6133.6-33.6133.60.80.8292934-637.531873824-6379485.049824.87

4820468915.5524997914338027501494494834381506-232721201080.540.00-1489645765485765484275844275846.33.52.6-34.8134.8-34.8134.80.80.8282834-537.731873805-6189485.219825.04

4920479225.5524908814328126553511794834731644-225271207540.520.00-1582935967275967274384354384356.33.52.5-36.1136.1-36.1136.10.80.8282833-537.931873782-5959485.409825.21

5020489545.5524816614299925605529694835081788-216141213850.510.00-1681166176136176134494974494976.23.52.5-37.4137.4-37.4137.40.80.8272732-538.131873755-5689485.589825.40

5120499885.5524721214252324656548294835421940-205201220030.500.00-1784556392296392294607744607746.13.52.5-38.7138.7-38.7138.70.80.8262631-438.331873723-5369485.789825.58

52205010225.5524622414183723708567394835752098-192301226070.480.00-1893316616026616024722724722726.13.52.5-40.1140.1-40.1140.10.80.8262630-438.531873687-5009485.989825.78

53205110585.5524520214093022760587294836082264-177321231980.470.00-2007666847586847584839934839936.03.52.5-41.5141.5-41.5141.50.70.7252529-438.731873646-4599486.199825.98

54205210955.5524414413978521811607894836402437-160091237750.460.00-2127837087257087254959424959426.03.52.5-42.9142.9-42.9142.90.70.7252528-338.831873600-4129486.419826.19

55205311335.5524304913838720863629094836722619-140471243400.440.00-2254077335307335305081235081235.93.52.5-44.4144.4-44.4144.40.70.7242427-339.031873547-3609486.639826.41

56205411735.5524191613672019915651094837022808-118281248920.430.00-2386637592047592045205415205415.93.52.4-45.8145.8-45.8145.80.70.7242426-239.231873489-3029486.879826.63

57205512145.5524074313476718966673894837323006-93351254310.420.00-2525777857767857765331995331995.83.52.4-47.4147.4-47.4147.40.70.7242425-239.431873424-2379487.119826.87

58205612575.5523952813250918018697494837623212-65511259580.410.00-2671748132788132785461045461045.83.52.4-48.9148.9-48.9148.90.70.7232324-139.531873353-1669487.359827.11

59205713015.5523827212992917070721894837913428-34561264730.400.00-2824848417438417435592595592595.73.52.4-50.5150.5-50.5150.50.70.7232323-139.731873274-879487.619827.35

60205813465.5523697112700616121747194838193652-291269770.390.00-2985358712048712045726695726695.73.52.4-52.1152.1-52.1152.10.70.7222222-039.831873188-19487.889827.61

61205913935.552356251237181517377329483847388637501274680.380.00-3153579016969016965863395863395.63.52.4-53.8153.8-53.8153.80.70.7222221140.031873094949488.159827.88

62206014425.552342321200451422580039483874412979031279480.370.00-3329819332559332556002746002745.63.52.4-55.5155.5-55.5155.50.60.6212120140.1318729901979488.449828.15

63206114925.5523279011596413276828394839004383124531284170.360.00-3514409659199659196144796144795.53.52.4-57.2157.2-57.2157.20.60.6212119240.3318728783099488.739828.44

64206215455.5523129711145012328857394839264647174251288750.350.00-3707679997269997266289606289605.53.52.4-58.9158.9-58.9158.90.60.6202018340.4318727564319489.049828.73

65206315995.5522975310647711380887394839514922228451293220.340.00-390996103471710347176437216437215.53.52.3-60.7160.7-60.7160.70.60.6202017440.6318726245639489.369829.04

66206416555.5522815410102010431918494839765207287381297590.330.00-412163107093210709326587696587695.43.52.3-62.6162.6-62.6162.60.60.6202015440.7318724817069489.689829.36

67206517135.55226499950519483950594840005505351341301850.320.00-434307110841511084156741086741085.43.52.3-64.4164.4-64.4164.40.60.6191914540.83187232786094810.029829.68

68206617735.55224787885408535983894840245814420611306010.310.00-457465114720911472096897446897445.33.52.3-66.3166.3-66.3166.30.60.6191913641.031872161102694810.3798210.02

69206718355.552230148145775871018294840476135495501310070.300.00-481678118736111873617056847056845.33.52.3-68.3168.3-68.3168.30.60.6191912741.131871982120694810.7498210.37

70206818995.552211807376966381053894840706469576341314030.290.00-506986122891912289197219337219335.33.52.3-70.2170.2-70.2170.20.60.6181810841.231871789139894811.1198210.74

71206919655.552192816544456901090794840926815663461317900.290.00-533435127193112719317384977384975.23.52.3-72.2172.2-72.2172.20.60.618189941.331871583160594811.5098211.11

72207020345.552173155644547421128994841147176757221321680.280.00-561067131644913164497553827553825.23.52.3-74.3174.3-74.3174.30.50.5171771041.531871361182694811.9098211.50

73207121055.552152814673737931168494841357550857991325360.270.00-589930136252513625257725957725955.13.52.3-76.4176.4-76.4176.40.50.5171761141.631871124206394812.3298211.90

74207221795.552131763627928451209394841557938966161328950.260.00-620071141021314102137901427901425.13.52.3-78.5178.5-78.5178.50.50.5171751241.73187870231794812.7598212.32

75207322555.5521099725033189712516948417583411082131332460.260.00-651541145957014595708080308080305.13.52.3-80.6180.6-80.6180.60.50.5161631341.83187599258894813.2098212.75

76207423345.552087421295494812954948133588-1206341206341335880.2512,954.46-684390151065515106558262658262655.03.52.3-82.8182.8-82.8182.816.216.2161621541.93187309287894813.6698213.20

13.66

19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

012345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546

Oil sector

Net revenue10822114711215912889136621448215351162721724818283193802054221775230822446625934274902914030888327423470636788389964133543816464454923130607000000000000000000

Taxes paid to Oil Fund10822114711215912889136621448215351162721724818283193802054221775230822446625934274902914030888327423470636788389964133543816464454923130607000000000000000000

Overall balance0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Oil Fund

Revenue10822116381251013441144371550216641178601916520562220572365925374272122918031288335463596538556413314430247484508915453958443626226709450301209282112221313215012168521865220422221622387225542271822878230362319023341234892363323775

Oil taxes received10822114711215912889136621448215351162721724818283193802054221775230822446625934274902914030888327423470636788389964133543816464454923130607000000000000000000


Expenditure605163946739708574327779812784758823917095179862102061054810889112271156411898122291255812884132071352613842141551446514770150721537115665159551624116524168021707617346176111787318130183831863118876191161935219583703067

Transfers to nonoil sector605163946739708574327779812784758823917095179862102061054810889112271156411898122291255812884132071352613842141551446514770150721537115665159551624116524168021707617346176111787318130183831863118876191161935219583703067

Interest due0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Current primary balance477150775421580462306702722377968425911398631068111569125331357814707159271724218659201842182223582254702749329660319803446115534-15371-15665-15955-16241-16524-16802-17076-17346-17611-17873-18130-18383-18631-18876-19116-19352-19583-703067

Current balance47715244577163567005772285149385103421139112541137971516916664182912006121983240672632728773314183427837365406964428848158523243522955575457535852595161506349674871477546814588449644044314422541374050-679291

Overall balance47715244577163567005772285149385103421139112541137971516916664182912006121983240672632728773314183427837365406964428848158523243522955575457535852595161506349674871477546814588449644044314422541374050-679291

Non oil sector

Transfers from Oil Fund605163946739708574327779812784758823917095179862102061054810889112271156411898122291255812884132071352613842141551446514770150721537115665159551624116524168021707617346176111787318130183831863118876191161935219583703067

Net non-oil current primary balance-6357-6150-6484-6818-7153-7489-7823-8158-8491-8823-9154-9483-9810-10135-10457-10776-11092-11405-11714-12019-12321-12618-12912-13200-13484-13763-14037-14306-14570-14828-15081-15328-15569-15804-16034-16256-16473-16683-16887-17084-17274-17457-17634-17803-17965-701375

Net interest due1054134114021465153116001672174718251908199320832177227523772484259627132835296230963235338135333692385840314213440246004807502452505486573359916261654268377144746678028153852089039304

Interest on financial assets

Interest due on nonoil financial net debt1054134114021465153116001672174718251908199320832177227523772484259627132835296230963235338135333692385840314213440246004807502452505486573359916261654268377144746678028153852089039304


Current nonoil primary balance (excl. transfer)-6357-6150-6484-6818-7153-7489-7823-8158-8491-8823-9154-9483-9810-10135-10457-10776-11092-11405-11714-12019-12321-12618-12912-13200-13484-13763-14037-14306-14570-14828-15081-15328-15569-15804-16034-16256-16473-16683-16887-17084-17274-17457-17634-17803-17965-701375

Current nonoil balance-7411-7491-7885-8283-8684-9088-9495-9904-10317-10731-11147-11566-11987-12409-12834-13260-13688-14117-14549-14982-15417-15853-16292-16733-17176-17621-18069-18519-18972-19429-19888-20352-20819-21290-21766-22247-22734-23225-23723-24228-24740-25259-25786-26322-26868-710679

Primary balance (excl. transfer)-6357-6150-6484-6818-7153-7489-7823-8158-8491-8823-9154-9483-9810-10135-10457-10776-11092-11405-11714-12019-12321-12618-12912-13200-13484-13763-14037-14306-14570-14828-15081-15328-15569-15804-16034-16256-16473-16683-16887-17084-17274-17457-17634-17803-17965-701375

Primary balance-306244255266278291304318332347362379396414432452472493515539563588615642671701733766800836874913955997104210891138118912431299135714181482154916191692

Overall nonoil balance (excl. transfer)-7411-7491-7885-8283-8684-9088-9495-9904-10317-10731-11147-11566-11987-12409-12834-13260-13688-14117-14549-14982-15417-15853-16292-16733-17176-17621-18069-18519-18972-19429-19888-20352-20819-21290-21766-22247-22734-23225-23723-24228-24740-25259-25786-26322-26868-710679

Overall balance-1360-1097-1147-1198-1252-1309-1368-1429-1493-1561-1631-1704-1781-1861-1945-2032-2124-2219-2319-2424-2533-2647-2766-2890-3020-3156-3298-3447-3602-3764-3933-4110-4295-4489-4691-4902-5122-5353-5594-5845-6108-6383-6670-6971-7284-7612

Public sector

Net current primary balance4465532156756070650969937527811487579459102261105911965129471401015159163991773519174207222238524170260842813530331326813519416300-14570-14828-15081-15328-15569-15804-16034-16256-16473-16683-16887-17084-17274-17457-17634-17803-17965-701375

Net interest due105411741051912756579381158-92-371-684-1033-1423-1856-2336-2870-3460-4113-4833-5627-6500-7461-8515-9671-10936-12320-13832-15482-16525-16522-16506-16477-16435-16379-16310-16225-16126-16012-15881-15734-15570-15388-15188-14969-14730-14472


Interest due on financial debt1054134114021465153116001672174718251908199320832177227523772484259627132835296230963235338135333692385840314213440246004807502452505486573359916261654268377144746678028153852089039304


Current primary balance4465532156756070650969937527811487579459102261105911965129471401015159163991773519174207222238524170260842813530331326813519416300-14570-14828-15081-15328-15569-15804-16034-16256-16473-16683-16887-17084-17274-17457-17634-17803-17965-701375

Current balance34114147462451585753641471467956884898311091012093133881480316346180281985921848240072634928886316313459937806412674500149026317821955169314251149866575276-31-347-672-1006-1350-1704-2069-2446-2834-3234-686904

Primary balance4465532156756070650969937527811487579459102261105911965129471401015159163991773519174207222238524170260842813530331326813519416300-14570-14828-15081-15328-15569-15804-16034-16256-16473-16683-16887-17084-17274-17457-17634-17803-17965-701375

Overall balance34114147462451585753641471467956884898311091012093133881480316346180281985921848240072634928886316313459937806412674500149026317821955169314251149866575276-31-347-672-1006-1350-1704-2069-2446-2834-3234-686904

Financing-3411-4147-4624-5158-5753-6414-7146-7956-8848-9831-10910-12093-13388-14803-16346-18028-19859-21848-24007-26349-28886-31631-34599-37806-41267-45001-49026-31782-1955-1693-1425-1149-866-575-276313476721006135017042069244628343234686904

In percent of GDPAve 99-03-6.1

Permissible primary nonoil balance with debt-6.519060200871224-6.04-6.09-6.13-6.15-6.16-6.16-6.15-6.12-6.09-6.05-5.99-5.93-5.86-5.79-5.71-5.62-5.53-5.44-5.34-5.24-5.13-5.03-4.92-4.81-4.70-4.58-4.47-4.36-4.24-4.13-4.02-3.90-3.79-3.68-3.57-3.46-3.36-3.25-3.15-3.05-2.95-2.85-2.75-2.66-99.240.0

Permissible primary nonoil balance without debt-6.21-6.27-6.33-6.37-6.39-6.40-6.40-6.39-6.36-6.33-6.28-6.23-6.17-6.10-6.03-5.95-5.86-5.77-5.68-5.58-5.48-5.37-5.27-5.16-5.05-4.94-4.82-4.71-4.60-4.48-4.37-4.26-4.14-4.03-3.92-3.81-3.70-3.60-3.49-3.39-3.29-3.18-3.09-2.99-2.90-99.48


Ave 99-03-6.4

Oil Fund Parameters

Oil Fund net assets bop (percent of GDP)

Stock of fin. assets bop0493810366163392291730168381614697256685673897917992159106439122138139385158317179080201832226741253989283769316287351765390437432558478396528239582394618856624608630256635801641244646586651826656967662008666951671796676544681197685755690221694593698875703067

Oil wealth bop4174894209014237604260074275774284024284084275144256364226824185534131454063433980283880703763303626593468993288813084232853302593962303981981021622531225837880330607000

Total OF oil + financial wealth bop417489425839434125442345450495458570466569474487482322490071497733505304512782520167527455534646541739548731555623562412569099575683582163588539594811600979607042613001618856624608630256635801641244646586651826656967662008666951671796676544681197685755690221694593698875703067

Oil in the ground bop90.0088.6587.2185.6984.0882.3780.5678.6576.6174.4672.1769.7567.1864.4661.5758.5155.2751.8448.1944.3340.2435.9031.3026.4321.2615.799.983.830.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Production3.713.934.164.414.684.965.265.575.916.266.647.047.467.908.388.889.419.9810.5811.2111.8912.6013.3514.1615.0115.9116.8610.480.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Net oil price8.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.00

Oil in the ground eop88.6587.2185.6984.0882.3780.5678.6576.6174.4672.1769.7567.1864.4661.5758.5155.2751.8448.1944.3340.2435.9031.3026.4321.2615.799.983.830.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Stock of OF fin. assets eop4771100151578622143291483687045384547696511076502890421028401180081346721529631730241950062190742454002741733055913398693772344179304622185103765627005979296034866089436143016195606247216297846347516396216443976490786536666581616625666668806711056752416792910

Targeted total wealth417489425839434125442345450495458570466569474487482322490071497733505304512782520167527455534646541739548731555623562412569099575683582163588539594811600979607042613001618856624608630256635801641244646586651826656967662008666951671796676544681197685755690221694593698875703067

Required saving477150775421580462306702722377968425911398631068111569125331357814707159271724218659201842182223582254702749329660319803446115534-15371-15665-15955-16241-16524-16802-17076-17346-17611-17873-18130-18383-18631-18876-19116-19352-19583-703067

Maximum consumption (for oil wealth p.c.= k)605163946739708574327779812784758823917095179862102061054810889112271156411898122291255812884132071352613842141551446514770150721537115665159551624116524168021707617346176111787318130183831863118876191161935219583703067

Stock of fin. assets bop (control)493810366163392291730168381614697256685673897917992159106439122138139385158317179080201832226741253989283769316287351765390437432558478396528239582394618856624608630256635801641244646586651826656967662008666951671796676544681197685755690221694593698875703067

Oil wealth per capita18977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977

Discounted oil revenue (viewed from t=1)10822110831135111625119061219312488127891309813415137391407014410147581511515480158541623716629170311744217863182951873719189196532012812090000000000000000000

19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

012345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546

Non oil sector debt dynamics

Stock of net financial debt bop (debt +)243882548526632278312908330392317603318934682362433787439578413594322045165471984932251541538605628458817614646423067120701407329776595800428364487407913419545199746104235108926113827118950124302129896135741141849148233154903161874169158176770

Financing of nonoil sector during the period1360109711471198125213091368142914931561163117041781186119452032212422192319242425332647276628903020315632983447360237643933411042954489469149025122535355945845610863836670697172847612

Stock of net financial debt eop (debt +)243882548526632278312908330392317603318934682362433787439578413594322045165471984932251541538605628458817614646423067120701407329776595800428364487407913419545199746104235108926113827118950124302129896135741141849148233154903161874169158176770

(Check)000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000-0

In percent of GDP

Stock of net financial debt bop (debt +)25.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.025.0

Financing of nonoil sector during the period1.3951.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.0771.077

Stock of net financial debt eop (debt +)25.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.01125.011

Stock of net financial debt bop (per capita)1109113611641194122512581292132713651403144414861531157716251675172817821840189919612026209421642238231423942478256526562750284929523059317132883410353736693807395241024259442345934771

Total wealth dynamics


Oil wealth417489425839434125442345450495458570466569474487482322490071497733505304512782520167527455534646541739548731555623562412569099575683582163588539594811600979607042613001618856624608630256635801641244646586651826656967662008666951671796676544681197685755690221694593698875703067

Oil in the ground4174894209014237604260074275774284024284084275144256364226824185534131454063433980283880703763303626593468993288813084232853302593962303981981021622531225837880330607000000000000000000



In percent of GDP


Oil wealth42841840839838737736735834833832931931030129228327526625825024223422721921220519819218517917316716115515014413913412912512011611110710399

Oil in the ground428413398383368353337322307292276261246230215199184168153137121106907458422610000000000000000000



In per capita terms


Oil wealth18977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977189771897718977

Oil in the ground18977187571852418276180111772817425170981674616367159581551615038145211396213357127041199711233104079514855175106388517638712463947000000000000000000



Macroeconomic parameters

Interest rate oil sector3.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.503.50

Discount index oil sector1.001.041.071.111.151.191.231.271.321.361.411.461.511.561.621.681.731.791.861.921.992.062.132.212.282.362.452.532.622.712.812.913.013.113.223.333.453.573.703.833.964.104.244.394.544.70

Interest rate nonoil sector5.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.505.50

Discount index nonoil sector1.001.061.111.171.241.311.381.451.531.621.711.801.902.012.122.232.362.482.622.772.923.083.253.433.613.814.024.244.484.724.985.265.555.856.176.516.877.257.658.078.518.989.4810.0010.5511.13

Population growth2.001.951.891.841.791.741.701.651.611.561.521.481.441.401.361.331.291.261.221.191.161.131.101.071.041.010.980.960.930.900.880.860.830.810.790.770.750.730.710.690.670.650.630.620.600.58

Population (m)22.0022.4422.8823.3123.7424.1624.5925.0025.4225.8226.2326.6327.0227.4127.7928.1728.5528.9229.2829.6429.9930.3430.6831.0131.3431.6731.9932.3032.6132.9133.2133.5033.7934.0734.3534.6234.8935.1535.4035.6535.9036.1436.3736.6036.8337.05

Difference GDP growth and population growth2.552.612.662.712.762.802.852.892.942.983.023.063.103.143.173.213.243.283.313.343.373.403.433.463.493.523.543.573.603.623.643.673.693.713.733.753.773.793.813.833.853.873.883.903.92

Real GDP in constant 1998 US$ million97507101895106480111272116279121512126980132694138665144905151426158240165361172802180578188704197196206070215343225033235160245742256800268356280432293052306239320020334421349470365196381630398803416749435503455101475580496981519345542716567138592659619329647199676323706757

Oil GDP16286172631829919397205602179423102244882595727514291653091532770347363682039030413714385446485492745223055364586866220765940698967409046061000000000000000000

Nonoil GDP81222846328818291876957199971810387810820611270811739112226112732513259113806614375814967515582416221616885817575918292919037819811420614921449322315623214927395933442100000000000000000

Rates of growth of real GDP

GDP4.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.504.50

Oil GDP6.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.006.00-37.83-100.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Nonoil GDP4.204.194.194.184.184.174.174.164.154.154.144.144.134.124.124.114.104.094.094.084.074.064.064.054.044.0318.0122.070.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Shares in real GDP1.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Oil0.170.170.170.170.180.180.180.180.190.190.190.200.200.200.200.210.210.210.220.220.220.230.230.230.240.240.240.140.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Nonoil0.830.830.830.830.820.820.820.820.810.810.810.800.800.800.800.790.790.790.780.780.780.770.770.770.760.760.760.861.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Rates of growth of real GDP per capita

GDP2.552.612.662.712.762.802.852.892.942.983.023.063.103.143.173.213.243.283.313.343.373.403.433.463.493.523.543.573.603.623.643.673.693.713.733.753.773.793.813.833.853.873.883.903.92

Oil GDP4.054.114.164.214.264.304.354.394.444.484.524.564.604.644.674.714.744.784.814.844.874.904.934.964.995.02-38.79-100.930.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

Nonoil GDP2.252.302.352.392.432.482.522.552.592.632.662.702.732.762.792.822.852.872.902.922.952.972.993.013.033.0517.0521.140.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00

19981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044

In percent of GDP012345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546

Oil sector

Net revenue11.111.311.411.611.711.9

Taxes paid to Oil Fund11.111.311.411.611.711.9


Oil Fund

Revenue11.111.411.712.112.412.8

Oil taxes received11.111.311.411.611.711.9


Expenditure6.26.36.36.46.46.4

Transfers to nonoil sector6.26.36.36.46.46.4

Interest due




Non oil sector

Transfers from Oil Fund6.26.36.36.46.46.4

Net non-oil current primary balance-6.5-6.0-6.1-6.1-6.2-6.2



Interest due on nonoil financial net debt1.11.31.31.31.31.3


Current nonoil primary balance (excl. transfer)-6.5-6.0-6.1-6.1-6.2-6.2

Current nonoil balance-7.6-7.4-7.4-7.4-7.5-7.5

Primary balance (excl. transfer)-6.5-6.0-6.1-6.1-6.2-6.2

Primary balance-0.30.20.20.20.20.2

Overall nonoil balance (excl. transfer)-7.6-7.4-7.4-7.4-7.5-7.5

Overall balance-1.4-1.1-1.1-1.1-1.1-1.1

Public sector

Net current primary balance4.65.25.35.55.65.8



Interest due on financial debt1.11.31.31.31.31.3




Primary balance4.65.25.35.55.65.8


Financing-3.5-4.1-4.3-4.6-4.9-5.3

Ave 99-03-6.1

Permissible primary nonoil balance with debt-6.52-6.04-6.09-6.13-6.15-6.16

Permissible primary nonoil balance without debt-6.21-6.27-6.33-6.37-6.39-6.40


Ave 99-03-6.4

For graph: non-oil financial debt-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01-25.01

non-oil financial debt per capita-1,108.55-1,135.72-1,164.17-1,193.95-1,225.11-1,257.69-1,291.76-1,327.36-1,364.56-1,403.41-1,443.99-1,486.36-1,530.60-1,576.77-1,624.95-1,675.24-1,727.70-1,782.44-1,839.55-1,899.12-1,961.26-2,026.08-2,093.69-2,164.20-2,237.74-2,314.44-2,394.44-2,477.86-2,564.87-2,655.60-2,750.24-2,848.93-2,951.86-3,059.21-3,171.17-3,287.95-3,409.74-3,536.77-3,669.27-3,807.48-3,951.64-4,102.01-

oil revenues & fiscal policy#wb philipdaniel

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