offshore wind farms - can the industry deliver (again) bruce valpy october 2010

Offshore Wind Farms:

can the wind industry deliver (again)?

Bruce Valpy

Joseph Swan Memorial Lecture, 19 October 2010

2© BVG Associates 2010

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1. Wind industry introduction

• Facts and figures

2. History lesson

• Meet the ancestors

• Famous battles

3. Anatomy lesson

4. Geography lesson

5. The future: “Can do”

Today


History Lesson 1:

meet the ancestors


History - Meet the Ancestors 1000BC

Nile Delta

First

windmills

© BVG Associates 2010 14

Meet the Ancestors

500BC

Persia

Panemones

common

Pumping

water


Meet the Ancestors

Crete

Pumping water

and grinding

1000AD


Meet the Ancestors

Jack & Jill

in Sussex

First UK windmill

in Weedly, Yorkshire

in 1185

1821


1800’s

US

Pumping

water

Meet the Ancestors


1941

US

Grampa’s

Knob

1st grid

connection

Meet the Ancestors

19

1982

UK

First

composite

blades

Meet the Ancestors


Global

$80bn

business

Vestas

employs

25,000

2010

Meet the Ancestors


Recent History: 1st Battle - Axis of Rotation

No longer a teenager...

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Tu

rbin

e R

ati

ng

(kW

)

Year of Introduction

Historical

Extrapolation

Onshore Forecast

Offshore Forecast


History Lesson 2:

Famous battles


1st famous battle: 3 blades vs 2

Recent History: 2nd Battle – Number of Blades


Recent History: 1st Battle - Axis of Rotation

2nd famous battle: horizontal axis vs vertical


Recent History: End of Dominance of Stall

3rd famous battle: stall vs pitch control


Recent History: Return of Downwind & Compliant Turbines?

4th famous battle: upwind vs downwind



5th famous battle: fixed vs variable speed



6th famous battle: geared vs direct-drive

Anatomy lesson


Blades

Hub

Gearbox

Yaw system

Generator

Control system,

converter & transformer

Tower

Anatomy of a Wind Turbine

€

V90-3MW


Blades

Hub

Gearbox

Yaw system

Generator

Control system,


Tower

Tower

16%

Nacelle

& yaw

system

13%

Hub

9%

Gearbox

20%

Blades

23%

Electric

& control

system

19%


€


Rotor

40-150T

Naelle

70-330T

Tower

200-400T

Rotor

Nacelle

Tower

Mass



Blades


0

5

10

15

20

25

010

2030

4050

60

Bla

de M

ass (

T)

Blade Length (m)

1996 Technology

2001 Technology

2005 Technology


Blades

Hub



Blades

Hub

€



Blades

Hub Nacelle

Yaw system



Inside – Novel Nacelles (High Speed Generators)


Inside – Novel Nacelles (Mid Speed Generators)


Inside – Novel Nacelles (Direct-Drive Generators)


Blades

Hub

Gearbox

Yaw system

Generator

Control system,


Tower


© BVG Associates 200941© BVG Associates 2010


Geography lesson

>9m/s

8-9m/s

>7-8m/s

>5.5-7m/s


2005

Kentish Flats (UK)


2007

Beatrice Demonstration (UK)


2010

Thanet (UK)


Development & Consent3.0%

Turbine29.0%

Balance of Plant22.5%

Installation & Commissioning19.5%

Operation & Maintenance26.0%

1.4%

1.4%

0.2%

5.9%

19.4%

3.8%

2.6%

17.8%2.0%

3.2%

14.6%

1.8%

9.1%

15.1%

1.8%

Offshore Wind Farm CAPEX Cost of Energy Breakdown


“Can do...” What?

1. Do Health & Safety excellently




2. Massive supply chain growth





3. Improve CAPEX costs significantly


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4. Improve Installation & OPEX costs more

offshore wind farms - can the industry deliver (again) bruce valpy october 2010

Environment