©oecd/iea2012€¦ · ©"oecd/iea"2012" gasinfrastructure$will$remain$capital$...
TRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
Gas infrastructure will remain capital intensive
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oil gas
For every dollar of upstream investment the amount to be spent on transport infrastructure (pipelines, tankers etc), USD
© OECD/IEA 2012
3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 TWh
2 000
The power sector points to the diverse drivers for gas demand growth
A mixture of factors leads to increased gas use: cheaper gas, nuclear phase-‐outs, a desire to diversify the fuel mix, and local and global environmental concerns
Change in power genera/on, 2010-‐2035
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Japan
European Union
United States
China
TWh
Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables
India
© OECD/IEA 2012
Gas grows strongly to 2035, expanding fastest in emerging markets
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United States
Middle East
EU Russia China India Japan
bcm AddiOonal 2021-‐2035
AddiOonal to 2020
2010
Gas is the fastest-‐growing fossil fuel in our New Policies Scenario. It is also the only fossil fuel that grows in all three of our main scenarios.
© OECD/IEA 2012
What is common in the two desNnaNons?
© OECD/IEA 2012
On the supply side, the unconvenNonal gas revoluNon takes Nme to spread
bcm
Growth in unconven/onal gas produc/on
Outside the United States, 80% of anNcipated growth in unconvenNonal gas producNon takes place aSer 2020
50 100 150 200 250
European Union
Algeria
Indonesia
ArgenOna
Mexico India
Canada
Australia
United States
China 2010-‐2020
2021-‐2035
© OECD/IEA 2012
Coal is easier to transport between conNnents
© OECD/IEA 2012
Towards an efficient LNG market?
© OECD/IEA 2012
The shiSing balance of supply and demand points to a more globalised market
Major global gas trade flows, 2010
Rising supplies of unconvenNonal gas & LNG help to diversify trade flows, puZng pressure on convenNonal gas suppliers & oil-‐linked pricing mechanisms
Major global gas trade flows, 2035
© OECD/IEA 2012
The design of climate policy has a major impact on gas
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2011 actual no feed in tariffs, only coal to gas
wind and solar coal
gas + 80 bcm gas imports
EU power genera/on with the same CO2 target, actual and coal and gas only