© oecd/iea 2010 a better energy future dr. fatih birol iea chief economist 19 september 2011
TRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2010
A better energy futureA better energy future
Dr. Fatih BirolDr. Fatih BirolIEA Chief EconomistIEA Chief Economist
19 September 201119 September 2011
© OECD/IEA 2011
Outlook for world energy demandOutlook for world energy demand
Without major policy change, we will face three major challenges: energy security, energy access and climate change
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Other renewablesBiomass
HydroNuclear
Gas
Coal
Oil
© OECD/IEA 2011
People without accessPeople without accessto modern energyto modern energy
Achieving universal access to modern energy by 2030 requires average annual investment of $48 billion
0
1 billion
2 billion
3 billion
2009 20092030 2030
OtherDeveloping Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
People withoutaccess to electricity
People without access toclean cooking facilities
© OECD/IEA 2011
Investment in energy access, 2009Investment in energy access, 2009
Achieving universal access to modern energy by 2030 requires annual investment to increase by more than five-times –
private sector needs to grow the most
14%
34%
30%
22%
Bilateral Official Development Assistance
Multilateral organisations
Developing country governments
Private sector finance
Total = $9.1 billion
© OECD/IEA 2011
Implications of achievingImplications of achievinguniversal modern energy accessuniversal modern energy access
Universal modern energy access does not have any significant impact on energy or climate security
0
10
20
30
40
0
5
10
15
20
World energydemand
2030
World energy demand in thecentral scenario
World CO2
emissions2030
World CO2 emissions in thecentral scenario (right axis)
Additional CO2 emissions in theEnergy for All Case (right axis)
0.7% Additional energy demand in theEnergy for All Case 1.1%
© OECD/IEA 2011
Global outlook for COGlobal outlook for CO22 emissions emissions
20
25
30
35
40
1990 2000 2020
Central Scenario+3.5°C
2010 2030
To move towards 2°C we need modern renewables to more than doubleand energy intensity to be reduced by 40% by 2030
2°C Scenario
2009 2030
Fossil fuels 81% 67%
Modern renewables 7% 18%
Other 12% 15%
Share of global demandin the 2°C Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2011
Sustainable Energy for AllSustainable Energy for All
Increase energy access
Universal access is achievable by 2030 – financing is key
To support a move to a CO2 path consistent with 2ºC
More than double the use of modern renewables by 2030
Reduce energy intensity by 40% by 2030
Rio+20 is a unique opportunity to set goals that help the world achieve …a better energy future