october 2, 2002national climatic data center goes users conference october 2, 2002 1

October 2, 2002 National Climatic Data Center

GOES USERS CONFERENCE

October 2, 2002

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Operational Space Based Systems

LOWER STRATOSPHERE

TROPOSPHERE

NEAR SURFACE

*** Sea surface temperature: 0.4 to 0.8oC increase since the late 19th century

* Global ocean (to 300m depth) heat content increase since 1950s equal to 0.04oC/decade

*** Widespread retreat of mountain glaciers during 20th century

** Land night time air temperature increasing at twice the rate of daytime temperatures since 1950

* Lake and river ice retreat since the late 19th century (2 week decrease in ice duration)

*** Land air temperatures: 0.4 to 0.8oC increase since late 19th century

*** Increase in freeze-free season over much of the mid to high-latitude region

** Arctic sea ice: summer thickness decrease of 40% and 10 to 15% decrease in extent during spring and summer since 1950s? Antarctic sea ice: no significant change since 1978

** N.H. spring snow cover extent: since 1987, 10% below 1966 to 1986 mean

* 1990s warmest decade of the millennium and 1998 warmest year for at least the Northern Hemisphere** Marine air temperature: 0.4 to 0.7oC increase since late 19th century

Upper ** Little to no change since 1979

** 0.0 to 0.2oC increase since 1979 - satellites & balloons** 0.2 to 0.4oC increase since about 1960

Low - to - Mid

** Lower stratosphere: 0.5 to 2.5oC decrease since 1979

O C E A N L A N D O C E A N

Red: GOES observations potential

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Tem perature Ind ica tors IPC C (2001)

Liklihood:*** Virtually certain (probability > 99%)*** Very likely (probability > 90% but < 99%)*** Likely (probability > 66% but < 90%) ? Ledium likelihood (probability > 33% but < 66%)

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Operational Space Based Systems

LOWER STRATOSPHERE

TROPOSPHERE

NEAR SURFACE

** No widespread changes in tropical storm frequency / intensity during the 20th century

** 2 to 4% increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events in the N. Hemisphere since 1950

* Widespread significant increases in surface water vapor in the N. Hemisphere, 1975 to 1995

* No systematic large-scale change in tornadoes, thunder-days, hail

** 5 to 10% increase in mid-latitudes* 2 to 3 % decrease in sub-tropics* 2 to 3 % increase in tropics

Upper troposphere:

Troposphere:Water Vapor

* 20% water vapor increase since 1980 (above 18 km)

O C E A N L A N D O C E A N

Red: GOES observations potential

Hydrological and Storm-Related Ind icators IPC C (2001)

* No significant global trends since 1980; 15% increase in tropics (10oN to 10oS)* Many regions with increases since about 1960

* 2% increase in total cloud amount over land during the 20th century

? No consistent 20th century change in extra-tropical storm frequency / intensity20th century

land surfacerainfall

Liklihood:*** Virtually certain (probability > 99%)*** Very likely (probability > 90% but < 99%)*** Likely (probability > 66% but < 90%) ? Medium likelihood (probability > 33% but < 66%)

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GCOS Satellite Climate Monitoring Principles

Minimize orbit drift

Ensure sufficient overlap

Replace prior to failure

Rigorous pre-launchcalibration

Adequate on-boardcalibration

Operational production ofpriority climate products

Facilitate access to products,metadata, and raw data

Continue baseline instrumentobservations ondecommissioned satellites

Need in situ baselineobservations

Real-time monitoring of network performance

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New approach for real time management of climate data

Observations & Metadata

Climate Quality

Products

Stewardship Teams

Analyses and QC

Feedbacks

Reprocessing and

Reanalyses

Archives

Benefits• Rapid feedback to observing system• Data prepared for prediction and analysis• Model-data synthesis on operational basis• Simple straight forward data access

NOAA Scientific Data Stewardship

Network Performance Monitoring Climate Data Records

• End-to-end accountability of data—Spatial and temporal sampling—Time dependent biases—Metadata—Reprocessing for CDRs

• Enable and facilitate future research• Safeguard interests of future generations

Climate Analyses

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GCOSprinciples


Improved Pre-Launch and In Orbit Calibration of GOES Is Essential

• Precise matches with in situ sea surface temperature show bias in diurnal cycle – largely due to GOES calibration

• This is partially caused by ‘midnight effect’ due to solar heating of instruments (esp. in 12 micron window)

• Problem larger than originally thought

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GCOSprinciples


Continuous Monitoring of Surface Skin Temperature – Maximum and Minimum• Nighttime minimums show heat

island and urban/rural differences

• Diurnal range related to evapotranspiration and summer heat wave stress

• Frost area identification for targeted mosquito/west nile abatement

Courtesy UAH/GHCC

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Application:


Energy Application - Solar Insolation for Solar Power

• Solar insolation is reliably obtained from GOES

• New GOES Active Archive will allow access to recent, and eventually the entire, GOES archive

• GOES Scientific Stewardship will improve quality control, calibration, etc.

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Application:

October 2, 2002 National Climatic Data Center 9

october 2, 2002national climatic data center goes users conference october 2, 2002 1

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