oct 1999 gio xit 1 extrapolating trends for information technology gio wiederhold stanford...
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Oct 1999 Gio XIT 1
Extrapolating Trends for Information Technology
Gio Wiederhold Stanford University
September 1999
Based on “Trends for Information Technology” 1999
www-db.stanford.edu/pub/gio/1999/miti.htm
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 2
T r e n d s 1998 : 1999
• Users of the Internet 40% 52% of U.S. population
• Growth of Net Sites (now 2.2M public sites with 288M pages)• Expected growth in E-commerce by Internet users [BW, 6 Sep.1999]
segment 1998 1999– books 7.2% 16.0%– music & video 6.3% 16.4%– toys 3.1% 10.3%– travel 2.6% 4.0%– tickets 1.4% 4.2%– Overall 8.0% 33.0% = $9.5Billion
An unstainable trend cannot be sustained [Herbert Stein]
new services
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0.3 1 3 9 27 81 **
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
0
Year / %
%
Centroid, in 1999 ~1% of total market
E-penetration Toys
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 3
Interactions
Consumer
Pull
Research &
Inno -vation
Toolbuilding
Product building &
marketingGeneralTechnology
Push Businessneeds
Governmentresponsibilities
InformationTechnology
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 4
Assumptions
• Hardware technology will continue to lead and encourage broader usage
• Communication technology will continue to lead and become more economical
• User interfaces will improve and not be a barrier to the acceptance of technology
• Government policies will not hinder open interaction - or not be able to
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 5
The Problem of Information Growth:
"We are drowning in information but starved for knowledge. This level of information is clearly impossible to be handled by present means. Uncontrolled and unorganized information is no longer a resource in an information society, instead it becomes the enemy."
-- John Naisbitt, author of 1982 bestseller Megatrends
. . . and it’s not getting better
Dealing with this issue requires Precision:• Helpful for casual users• Essential for business
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 6
Precision in:
• Search for Information– recall versus precision
• Relevance of Information for the Customer– modeling the customer
• Meaning of the Information– resolving semantic mismatch
• Timeliness of Information– resolving temporal mismatch
Service model to achieve these objectives services add value by increasing precision
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 7
Search techniques to add value
Yahoo catalogues and organizes useful web sites.
Junglee integrates diverse sources.
AltaVista automatically surfs and indexes the web.
Excite also tracks queries and classifies customers.
Firefly provides customer control over their profiles.
Cookies track users’ activities between sessions.
Alexa collects webpages and their usage.
Google ranks the reference importance of web pages.
. . .
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 8
Problems for search engines and progress
• Unsuitable source representations• part classification: HTML --- XML• print formats: postscript, adobe PDF• non-text: images, sound, video• hidden in databases behind CGI scripts
• Inconsistent semantics • context distinct / scope / view
• Naïve modeling of customers• roles & growth
Search engines cannot solve all problems
Being improved.
Rate?
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 9
The world wide information network and its participants
External:
sourcesand / orsinks
Internal:
transformers
and memory.
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data, meta-data,knowledge
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 10
Understand the Architecture forInformation Technology:
Sources
Services
Customers
SourcesSources
ServicesServices
CustomersCustomersCustomersCustomers
Component Classification
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 11
Specifications for the components
Sources
Services
Customers
SourcesSources
ServicesServices
CustomersCustomersCustomersCustomers
Metadata
Customermodels
CatalogsContent
&Methods
Progress
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 12
Functional Service Layers
Service Service interfaceinterface
Resource accessResource access interfaceinterface
User interfaceUser interface
Real-worldReal-world interfaceinterface
Human-computerHuman-computer InteractionInteraction
Application-Application- specific codespecific code
Domain-Domain- specific specific codecode
Source-Source- specificspecific codecode
MEDIATIONMEDIATION ServicesServices
Available Sources
Client
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 13
Modeling: sources• Models provide abstractions
• abstractions represent a point of view• Models of databases are schemas and E-R models
• well established• constraints - references, uniqueness
• scopes remain implicit• Information systems have meta-data• XML has DTD’s
• under discussion, still limited
Focus on resources
Meta data
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 14
Customer modelsCustomer is a person one specific task
• arranging a vacation trip• activity ˆ location town ˆ hotel by grade ˆ flight ˆ public transport ˆ rented car
•arranging a business trip• location ˆ hotel by plan ˆ flight ˆ taxi or rented car
• getting a computer for Joe Cheap• search CPU by price ˆ modem ˆ display
• getting a computer for Peter Fast • search CPU by speed ˆ storage ˆ display ˆ network
Hierarchical alternatives at each level ( evaluate, commit, rollback )
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 15
Personal vs. Customer Model
Actual Person has multiple roles how to switch
explicitly implicitly
keep past contexts
Switching rate will differ• work versus fun• adequacy of models
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 16
Service layer
Customer Customer Service Service
Resource Resource accessaccess
MEDIATIONMEDIATION
Multipledomains !
Shared software,standards ?
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 17
Value-added intermediate services 1
Filters attached to the customer model; balance relevant volume and precision
Wrap resources to make them compatible, exploit wrapper templates, skip unavailable sources
Match available metadata and indices of resource contents to leaf nodes in the customer model
Monitor and index public metadata, describe resource capabilities, contents & methods
Needs Technologies extant and new
Describe customer model
Discover new resources
Select relevant resources
Easy access to resources
Filter out excessive data
Build interpretable workflow model with meta-specifications for selection
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 18
Value-added intermediate services 2
Automatic abstraction to match sources at
articulation points within the customer model Attach data instances to articulation points, combine elements , link to customer model
Match data for content, omit overlap, report inconsistencies in overlapping sources
Summarize according to customer model, rank information at each level
Present information according to model hierarchy, consider bandwidth
Needs Technologies, extant and new
Identify articulations *
Match level of detail *
Integrate information
Omit redundant data, documents
Reduce customer overload
Inform customer
Matching of related concepts, use articulation rules to match nodes
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 19
Abstraction layers differ:
Example in medical research• Individual patient records• Family based genetic traces• Disease-based summaries• Genetically-linked disease data• Ligand-based genomic segments• Aggregated gene sequences • 3-D configurations of segments• Drug-gene interactions
All have their own hierarchies, roots
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 20
Combining the models* Identify articulations
• Match customer and resource terms• semantic mismatches
• thesauri, matching rules
Match level of detail • Match customer and resource values,
summarize numbers, result ranks • completeness, unit mismatches, text
• indicate constraints in models• textual abstraction • input for visualization
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 21
Mediator Service Design Principle
Transform Data into Information
Match
User Model
Hierarchical
to
Resource Model
General network
(and maintain models)
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 22
Result modes for ranking
Databases:• Completeness• All the answers
Prolog• Correctness• The first answer
Optimization• The best one• Assumes all factors are known, no human decision
Customer:
• wants choices
• explanation
• background
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 23
Ranking
Qualitative Significant Differences:
in terms of the customer model
Plan 1. UA59 dep.Wash.Dulles 17:10, arr. LAX 19:49
Plan 2. AA75 dep.Wash.Dulles 18:00, arr. LAX 20:10
Plan 3. UA119 dep.Wash.Dulles 9:25, arr. LAX 12:00
Busy Joe:
P1= P2, P3
Speedy Mike:
P2, P1=P3
Greedy Pete:
P1=P3, P2
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 24
Mediation for Quality
User Modelf(S,C,T)
Assessments: S1=.8 S2=.9 S3=8
User Modelf(S,C,T)
Assessments: S1=.8 S2=.9 S3=8
BEST=low costrapid responsereliable deliverytrustworthiness
C3= 10+_1T3=50+_80
Estimates: C1= 5+_1 T1=100+_160
C2= 8+_1T2=70+_30
S1 S3S2
S= source reliabilityC= confidenceT=
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 25
Computing Projections
timepast now future
01.3
Next period alternatives and subsequent periods
0.40.4
0.60.6
0.20.2
0.50.50.30.3
0.250.25
0.10.1
0.050.05
0.30.3
0.070.07
0.30.3
For decision-making: not just past data
Integrate simulation results into information systems: SQL SimQL
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 26
Extending the support into the future
Must manage multiple projected futures ---Novel tools needed to help the decision maker:
1. Assess the likelihood of a branch being taken (if not controlable)
2. Compute probabilities into the future, up to desired/final endpoints
3. Compute results at each node, by backtracking from the endpointsand considering the probabilities
4. Compare the associated costs and benefits for the alternatives at any future time
5. Recalculate to get new, better values, less uncertainty
• Trim or summarize unlikely branches to reduce the complexity
• Prune to the current state and delete all but one actual path
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 27
Architecture instances
Applications . . . .
Mediators . . . . . .
Resources . . ._
….…. .
_….…. .
_….…. .
include computational resources
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 28
Assigning maintenance responsibility
a. Source data quality –supplier database, files, or web pages
b. Interface to the source – wrapper, supplier or vendor for supplier
c. Source selection – expert specialist in mediator
d. Source quality assessment – customer input to mediator
e. Semantic interoperation – specialist group providing input to the mediator
f. Consistency and metadata information – mediator service operation or warehouse
g. Informal, pragmatic integration – client services with customer input
h. User presentation formats – client services with customer input
Services
Sources
Customers
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 29
Summary
To sustain the trend 1. The value of the results has to keep increasing
precision, relevance not volume2. Value is provided by experts,
encoded as models of diverse resources, customersProblems to be addressed mismatches quality temporal extensions maintenance
} Clear models
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 30
Technology Transition .
• Economic drivers have to be considered. • Three party model
• Industry: need-based invention• academia: formalization• innovators: new technology
• New Service models provide new Opportunities• supply innovative tools to industry• supply specialized information to industry
I i
a
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 31
Understanding the other parties
Motivation is profit and loss avoidance of • Industry: investment --
– payoff to stockholders / retain value / stable • Academia: prestige -- (leads to continuing funding)
– visibility, not stability or reliability• Innovative businesses: leverage -- not sustainable
– low downside cost, high upside risk, – change expected and needed
• Government research: – technology dissemination & shelving service ?
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 32
Research economy transfer paths
Pro
du
cts
Tool suppliers (TS) versus Product suppliers (PS)
high-valuemodest volume
Customers
Research
GovernmentTeaching
Ta
xes
highvolume
people results
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 33
Operating Systems
• Microsoft Windows, personal computer and WS.
proprietary product, no obligations to hardware,
rapidly adapted to new requirements • UNIX, an open systems, consensus and takes time.
• SUN servers• LINUX clients and servers, free, low entry cost• ….
• Mainframe operating systems, little growth expected• VMS (COMPAQ) reliable 24 hour / 7 day
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 34
1 Pre-competitive development.2 Integration and Marketing3. Problem: Asynchrony.
3.1 Industry-driven. research. 3.2 Curiosity-driven research. 3.3 Fundamental research3.4 Transition windows
4 Transition agents. 4.1 Link academic researchers to industry 4.2 Link academic and industrial research. 4.3 Startup companies. 4.4 Incubator services. 4.5 Research stores.
Commercial Technology Transfer Company. Governmental Technology Transfer Institute. Other candidate organization models for research stores.
5 Research Venues and Technology Transfer.6 Summary
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 35
Alternative solutions• A Super Database
– unwieldly
– obsolete before it is established
• Distributed, free standing databases (today)– awkward for sharing information
(much knowledge derives from the intersections)
– hyperlinks and shared references allow navigation
• Distributed databases with a single standard allowing interoperation
– standards follow progress, cannot lead it
• Distributed databses with published formats – requires rapid adaptation to keep up with resources
(but the number of resources per project will be limited)
with mediators to isolate projects from resources
Oct 1999 Gio XIT 36
Paying• Free goods (as information), supported by advertisers• The referred service pays for references made• After contact and selection direct by credit card
at some processing overhead and delay
• Customer trust for tolerable losses • Audited ba mediator, violators are blacklisted only • Escrow for substantial value: more delay
• Very small transactions use walletsa. Risk is assumed by the vendor:
b. Risk is assumed by the customer:
• Subscriptions for long-term interactions