oclc online computer library center scanning for planning alane wilson, mlis, senior library market...
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OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Scanning for Planning
Alane Wilson, MLIS, Senior Library Market Consultant
CIL 2006Alane Wilson
Senior Library Market Consultant
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Trend Spotting started here for Trend Spotting started here for OCLCOCLC
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Why Do This?
Western Union
Personal computer
Amazoogle, YaBay,
Skating where the puck will be
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Futuring: 4 Questions
Can we predict the future?
Can we know the future?
Can we control the future?
Can we influence the future?
NONO
YESYES
NONO
YESYES
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
The Four Types of Change
Continuous Discontinuous
TrendsAging
Economic growth
EventsFall of Berlin Wall
September 11
ImprovementsMarket shareFewer defects
TransformationsNew leadership
New vision
Giv
en
Ch
osen
From Dr Peter C Bishop, University of Houston From Dr Peter C Bishop, University of Houston
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Prediction and Forecasting
Prediction
Physical evidence
Strong assumptions
Unitary phenomenon
Higher quality inferences
Forecasting
Intangible evidence
Weak assumptions
Multiple possibilities
Lower quality inferences
From Dr Peter C Bishop, University of Houston From Dr Peter C Bishop, University of Houston
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Short-term horizon Long-term horizon
Single domain Many domains
Few factors Many factors
Focus on continuity Focus on discontinuity
Hide uncertainty Reveal uncertainty
Single forecast Alternative forecasts
Quantitative techniques Qualitative techniques
Traditional Forecasting Futures Forecasting
Forecasts - Two Approaches
From Dr Peter C Bishop, University of Houston From Dr Peter C Bishop, University of Houston
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Scenarios enhance
creativity in visioning
Scanning for trends
Identify key forces
Scenario matrix narratives
Vision
Mission
Goals
Likely and alternative futures Preferred Futures
Generation of new strategies
Evaluation of new andexisting strategies
Strategic priorities and plan of actionDiagram from the Institute for Alternative Futures www.altfutures.com
Are strategies robust? Do they work in most
or all scenarios?
Do strategies align with vision, mission
and goals?
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
What is Environmental Scanning?
“Environmental scanning focuses on the identification of emerging issues, situations and potential pitfalls that may affect an organization…in essence, it is a method for identifying, collecting and translating information about external influences into useful plans and decisions.”
Kendra S Albright, “Environmental Scanning: Radar for Success.” Information Management Journal, 38(3), May/June 2004.
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Content of an Environmental Scan STEEP
Social, technological, environmental, economic, political landscapes
PEST(LE)
Political, economic, social, technology (legislative, environmental)
SETRLL
Social, economic, technology, research & learning, libraries
Whatever!
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Trend Spotting
It’s about observing, reading, musing, synthesizing and understanding
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
The 3 Main Challenges
Management and corporate culture
They’re just not that into trends
Resources
Time, funds, attention
Understanding and applying trends
Thinking BIG and…so what?
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Resources
Too much, not enough, too expensive, no time, who cares I’m retiring…
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Understanding and Applying Trends
Back to STEEP, PEST and SETRLL
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
The Amazoogle* Effect
Comprehensive
Accessible
Immediate gratification
Market-of-One
*Coined by Lorcan Dempsey,OCLC VP of Research
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Convenience Trumps Quality
Scientists: Google
Yahoo
PubMed
Librarians: Science Direct
ISI Web of Science
MedLine
Source: John Regazzi, “The Battle for Mindshare: A battle beyond access and retrieval” http://www.nfais.org/publications/mc_lecture_2004.htm
“In a survey for this lecture, librarians and scientists were asked to name the top scientific and medical search resources that they use or are aware of. The difference is startling.”
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
LibrariesLibraries in the “infosphere” 2004in the “infosphere” 2004
Published
Content
Published
Content
Institutional
Content
Institutional
Content
Special
Collections
Special
Collections
Web ContextWeb Context
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
How do you select which electronic information source to use?
Q715
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
…is the information you get from library sources more or less trustworthy than information you get from search engines?
0
20%
40%
60%
70%
80%
50%
30%
10%
TotalRespondents
AustraliaSingapore
India
Canada UnitedKingdom
UnitedStates
22%
69%
9%
24%
66%
10%
28%
60%
12%18%
75%
7%
21%
70%
9%
Library sources more trustworthy Library sources less tr
Q1205
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
…is the information you get from library sources more or less trustworthy than information you get from search engines?
Q1205
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Decreased activities due to Internet use
Read thenewspaper
Readbooks
Watch television
Listen to the radio
Visit with friends/family
in person
39%
21%
14%
26%
26%
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
“Lifestyle fit” of information sources
0
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Library OnlineLibrary
Bookstore
Fits perfectlywithyour lifestyle
Is agood fit foryour lifestyle
Somewhat fits your lifestyle
Does not fityour lifestyle
OnlineBookstore
Total Respondents Q1345
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
The Library – An Idea Amplifier?
“If a CEO can see his company as primarily an idea amplifier, then he can understand his "brand" properly. Vision doesn't require molecules, it never did. What it requires is something worth believing in.”
Hugh Macleod – gapingvoid.com
OCLC Online Computer Library Center
Last Thoughts…Finding a Vision
“We are here to find meaning. We are here to help other people do the same. Everything else is secondary.”
Hugh Macleod – gapingvoid.com