oclc online computer library center scanning for planning alane wilson, mlis, senior library market...

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

Scanning for Planning

Alane Wilson, MLIS, Senior Library Market Consultant

SLA 2006Alane Wilson

Senior Library Market Consultant


Trend Spotting started here for Trend Spotting started here for OCLCOCLC


Why Do this?

Western Union

Personal computer

Amazoogle, YaBay,

Skating where the puck will be


Traditional Planning

Extrapolates from the past/present

Focus is on industry situation

Solving current problems

No holistic view of external factors


Futuring: 4 Questions

Can we predict the future?

Can we know the future?

Can we control the future?

Can we influence the future?

SometimesSometimes

NONO

NONO

YESYES


The Four Types of Change

Continuous Discontinuous

TrendsAging

Economic growth

EventsFall of Berlin Wall

September 11

ImprovementsMarket shareFewer defects

TransformationsNew leadership

New vision

Giv

en

Ch

osen


Prediction and Forecasting

Prediction

Physical evidence

Strong assumptions

Unitary phenomenon

Higher quality inferences

Forecasting

Intangible evidence

Weak assumptions

Multiple possibilities

Lower quality inferences


Short-term horizon Long-term horizon

Single domain Many domains

Few factors Many factors

Focus on continuity Focus on discontinuity

Hide uncertainty Reveal uncertainty

Single forecast Alternative forecasts

Quantitative techniques Qualitative techniques

Traditional Forecasting Futures Forecasting

Forecasts - Two Approaches


Scenarios enhance

creativity in visioning

Scanning for trends

Identify key forces

Scenario matrix narratives

Vision

Mission

Goals

Likely and alternative futures Preferred Futures

Generation of new strategies

Evaluation of new andexisting strategies

Strategic priorities and plan of actionDiagram from the Institute for Alternative Futures www.altfutures.com

Are strategies robust? Do they work in most

or all scenarios?

Do strategies align with vision, mission

and goals?


What is Environmental Scanning?

“Environmental scanning focuses on the identification of emerging issues, situations and potential pitfalls that may affect an organization…in essence, it is a method for identifying, collecting and translating information about external influences into useful plans and decisions.”

Kendra S Albright, “Environmental Scanning: Radar for Success.” Information Management Journal, 38(3), May/June 2004.


Content of an Environmental Scan STEEP

Social, technological, environmental, economic, political landscapes

PEST(LE)

Political, economic, social, technology (legislative, environmental)

SETRLL

Social, economic, technology, research & learning, libraries

Whatever!


Trend Spotting

It’s about observing, reading, musing, synthesizing and understanding


The 3 Main Challenges

Management and corporate culture

They’re just not that into trends

Resources

Time, funds, attention

Understanding and applying trends

Thinking BIG and…so what?


Management and corporate culture


Resources

Too much, not enough, too expensive, no time, who cares I’m retiring…


Understanding and Applying Trends

Back to STEEP, PEST and SETRLL


The Amazoogle* Effect

Comprehensive

Accessible

Immediate gratification

Market-of-One

*Coined by Lorcan Dempsey,OCLC VP of Research


Why haven’t you ever used the online library Web site?


…is the information you get from library sources more or less trustworthy than information you get from search engines?

0

20%

40%

60%

70%

80%

50%

30%

10%

TotalRespondents

AustraliaSingapore

India

Canada UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

22%

69%

9%

24%

66%

10%

28%

60%

12%18%

75%

7%

21%

70%

9%

Library sources more trustworthy Library sources less tr

Q1205


The Internet of Things

“spimes” & “blogjets”


“I can’t understand why people are frightened of new ideas. I’m frightened of

the old ones.” John Cage

oclc online computer library center scanning for planning alane wilson, mlis, senior library market...

Documents

oclc slide

setrll slide

chosen slide

q1205 slide

oclc vp of research

library sources

online library web site

corporate culture slide