november monthly snapshot - nifty 50 special report by

8/3/2019 November Monthly SnapShot - Nifty 50 Special Report By www.capitalheight.com

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November Monthly Snapshot – Nifty 50



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CONTENTS

Latest Updates

Technical Analysis (M.A., PIVOTS, FIBO)

S&P CNX Nifty

Bank Nifty Future

BSE Sensex

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Latest Updates

10th Oct-

TTK Prestige has reported a rise of 54.6% in net profit of Rs 33.7 crore for the

second quarter of FY12. It recorded net profit of Rs 21.8 crore in the

corresponding quarter of last fiscal

11th Oct -Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) subsidiary CMC today reported a 25% drop in its

second quarter consolidated net profit at Rs 32.63 crore, down from Rs 43.63 crore

in the year-ago period.

12th Oct -

Country's second largest software services exporter Infosys has reported a growth

of 10.81% in net profit for the quarter ended September 2011, as per IFRS. Wind

power company Net profit was at Rs 1,906 crore in second quarter of FY12 as

against Rs 1,720 crore in previous quarter

13th Oct -

Praj Industries has announced its second quarter results. The company's Q2 net

profit was up 127.78% at Rs 20.5 crore versus Rs 9 crore, year-on-year, Y/Y

Its net sales were up 112.57% at Rs 230 crore versus Rs 108.2 crore, Y/Y.

14th Oct -

Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services has announced its second quarter results.

The company's Q2 net profit was up at Rs 6.05 crore versus Rs 4.3 crore Q/Q






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15th Oct -

RIL’s July-September quarter net profit rose 15.8% year-on-year, to Rs 5,703

crore. Net turnover for the quarter rose 35% to Rs 80,790 crore.

17th Oct -

India’s largest mortgage lender Housing Development Finance Corporation’s

(HDFC) net profit rose 20% year-on-year to Rs 971 crore in the September

quarter. Total income shot up 37% to Rs 4,077 crore from 2,970 crore year-on-

year. The performance is on expected lines.

Tata Consultancy Services reported a lower-than-expected 15% year-on-year

rise in second quarter net profit at Rs 2,439 crore, amid continued uncertainty in

global economy. Revenue for July-September quarter rose 25% from a year ago

to Rs 11,634 crore, India’s top software services exporter said late Monday

18th Oct -

HCL Tech has reported a fall of 2.5% Q/Q in consolidated net profit of Rs 497

crore for the quarter ended September 2011. The company had reported a net

profit of Rs 510 crore in the previous quarter. EBITDA margin too declined at

17.1% in the first quarter FY12 as against 18.5% (Q/Q). Revenues jumped 8.16%

to Rs 4,651 crore from Rs 4,300 crore quarter-on-quarter

Country's largest two-wheeler maker Hero Moto corp has reported better-than-

expected rise of 19.4% Y/Y in net profit of Rs 604 crore in the quarter endedSeptember 2011. The company had posted a profit of Rs 506 crore in the

corresponding quarter of last fiscal. Net sales jumped 28% to Rs 5,784 crore from

Rs 4,511 crore year-on-year.






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19th Oct -

Bajaj Finance has announced its second quarter results. The company's Q2 net

profit was up at Rs 87 crore versus Rs 53 crore, year-on-year, Y/Y. Its total

income was up at Rs 492 crore versus Rs 320 crore, Y/Y.

Essar Ports has announced its second quarter results. The company's Q2 net

profit was up at Rs 41 crore versus Rs 11 crore. Its total operating income was at

Rs 270 crore

20th Oct -

Bajaj Auto’s net profit for the second quarter rose lower-than-expected 6% year-

on-year at Rs 726 crore hurt by a forex loss incurred on forward contracts.

However, revenue surged to its highest ever, riding on the back of strong sales of

motorcycles and commercial vehicles. Revenue for July-September rose 21%

year-on-year at Rs 5,342 crore.

21st Oct – Godrej Consumer Products second quarter consolidated net profit declined 2.6%

year-on-year to Rs 127.71 crore as higher tax expense and a foreign exchange

loss offset strong sales growth.

22nd Oct-

Axis Bank’s second quarter (July-September) net profit rose more than

25% year-on-year to Rs 920 crore. This is on the back of a robust growth in

net interest income the difference between interest earned and interest

expended climbed 24% to Rs 2,007 crore, driven by a forecast-beating loan

book growth.






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25th Oct –

AVT Natural Products has reported a sales turnover of Rs 63.87 crore and a net

profit of Rs 16.05 crore for the quarter ended Sep '11.

For the quarter ended Sep 2010 the sales turnover was Rs 30.52 crore and net

profit was Rs 3.19 crore.

28th Oct-

National Hydroelectric Power Corporation NHPC has reported a net profit of Rs

966 crore in the second quarter of FY12, a growth of 40% as compared to Rs

690 crore in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal. Net sales jumped 47.66% to

Rs 1,831 crore in the July-September period of 2011 versus Rs 1,240 crore in

same quarter in the previous year.

31st Oct-

State-owned Bank of Baroda has reported a net profit of Rs 1,166 crore for the

quarter ended September FY12, a better-than-expected increase of 14.4% as

compared to Rs 1,019.3 crore in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal.

Net interest income jumped 26% to Rs 2,567 crore from Rs 2,038.1 crore year-

on-year.

Provisions in the July-September quarter of FY12 increased to Rs 483 crore from

Rs 185 crore in a year ago period. Net non-performing assets (NPAs) stood at

0.47% as against 0.38% and gross NPAs came in at 1.41% versus 1.39% year-

on-year






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TECHNICAL VIEW

Moving averages

Moving Averages 20 Day 50 Day 100 Day 200 Day

Daily 5054 5015 5216 5390

Weekly 5204 5471 5423 4789

Fibonacci retracement levels (Weekly)

SCRIPT 0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0%

NIFTY 4720 5105 5345 5535 5720 6348

Monthly Pivot

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

NIFTY 7177 6506 5834 5598 5163 4926 4492 3820 3149

Weekly Pivot


NIFTY 6227 5912 5597 5479 5282 5164 4967 4652 4337






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Weekly Analysis :- S&P CNX NIFTY

Nifty has been in a correction phase for the past one year and presently forming a

downtrend channel for the past one year taking support/resistance of two crucial

trendline. The month of November will be a crucial one as it is now in its upward

trajectory of its channel and global cues will play a crucial role in deciding its next move.

Nifty currently has breached its 38.2% retracement level and it may further

extend uptrend to test the upward resistance line which is around 5460-5500.

Nifty has made a double bottom and a “W” formation break out and if calculate a

technical target; it comes at 5500 where it will test the resistance of 50%

retracement level of its fall from 6335 to 4720.

In coming weeks, If Nifty breaches this upward resistance line and the level of

5550-5570, then a upward trend can be seen and it may retrace to 61.8% - 5740. On the contrary, if it test the level of 5500 and starts to trade below 5300, then

cam slide down to 4700-4600 level sharply to complete its downward channel

and test its support line.






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Weekly Analysis

As we said last month, Bank Nifty took a support of 200 DMA and breached its 38.2%

retracement level of its uptrend from 3370 to 13320 in November 2010. Bank Nifty is

now in a short term correction phase and witnessing a pullback rally in the near term.

Bank Nifty currently has given a closing above its 38.2% retracement level and

given a slight positive view on banking space in the near term, it will continue to

extend its upward momentum in coming weeks.

As Bank Nifty has given a comfortable closing above 38.2% level, it may extend

the trend and next resistance for it will be 23.6% level which comes at 10945.

Bank Nifty if breaks this upward resistance line and gives a closing above it then

can extend upward momentum to 11400 while if reverses then can correct to

9400 and 8900 in coming month.

Bank Nifty this month has given closing above its 38.2% retracement level and is

expected to trade above this and if in coming weeks and we can see further upside and

it may test the retracement level of 23.6% which comes around 10900. But, If Bank Nifty

reverses and start trading below 9700-9600 then can slide down to 8900 level.






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BSE Sensex Moving averages

Moving Averages 20 Day 50 Day 100 Day 200 Day

Daily 16804 16693 17366 17964

Weekly 17333 18236 18081 15967

Fibonacci retracement levels (Weekly)

SCRIPT 0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0%

SENSEX 21108 17935 16000 14395 12850 7697

Monthly Pivot


SENSEX 23641 21478 19315 18560 17152 16397 14989 12826 10663

Weekly Pivot


SENSEX 20567 19557 18547 18175 17537 17165 16527 15517 14507






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Weekly Analysis

Sensex this month is expected to be sustain the consolidation phase or more clearly

may dissent to go down due to following reasons:-

it has made a solid support at 200 DMA which will act as a major support and in

the near term may sustain it and continue its upward momentum.

Sensex currently is following a channel and facing stiff resistance at 23.6%

retracement level of its upward trend from 8K to 21K.

If it sustains the level of 18000 in the coming weeks and gives a closing above it

then can further extend to 19000 and 19800.

While, if it reverses and breaks the level of 17200 and trades below it then can

slide back to 16300 and 15400 in the coming month.

November will be a crucial month to decide trend for Sensex while global cues will also

play a crucial role coupled with FII’s and DII’s activity. Upward resistance for Sensex in

the coming month will be 18400 and 18900 and closing above it may see a upward

momentum while support will be 17300; breaking of which will lead Sensex to the level

of 16300 and 15400 level.






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