Non-State Actors State-Centric Analysis

Team Sub-Saharan Africa

Mercyhurst Institute For Intelligence Studies

Indexes• Ease Of Doing Business

– World Bank• Transparency Index

– Transparency International• Human Development Index

– United Nations Development Progamme• Freedom of the Press Index

– Reporters Without Borders• Civil Rights Score

– Freedom House• Civil Liberties Score

– Freedom House• Global Peace

– Global Peace Index • (The Economist Intelligence Unit, Peace Institutes and Think Tanks, Centre for Peace and Conflict

Studies, University of Sydney, Australia)• Global Information Technology

– World Economic Forum• Economic Freedom

– Heritage Foundation and Wall Street Journal• Democracy Index

– Economist

Scales

• Indexes are converted to percentile coefficients

• Analysis uses 1-5 scale

• Scores can be rounded to .5 depending on the level of accuracy of compared entities

1

2

3

4

5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

.5

Ease Of Doing BusinessWorld Bank

1

2

3

4

5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

.5

"A high ranking on the ease of doing business index means the regulatory environment is conducive to the operation of business."

Highly Conducive to business minded NSAs

Inhospitable to business minded NSAs. Low scores often provide the advantage foreign state actors

1%

99%

Percentile

Transparency IndexTransparency International

1

2

3

4

5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

.5

Countries with a high ranking indicates that criminal or unethical NSA's are likely to have greater influence in a country, and it would be unlikely that smaller businesses, NGO's and ethical NSA's would have influence.

Conducive to NSA activity. NSAs have access more predictable markets/venues, which require smaller investment to establish operations.

Inhospitable to NSAs lacking connections to influential powers or the capital to influence them. Low scores often provide the advantage foreign state actors with few ethical regulations

1%

99%

Percentile

Human Development IndexUnited Nations Development Programme

1

2

3

4

5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

.5

A country with a low ranking is unlikely to require many social, health and cultural oriented NGOs and NSAs, and a country with a high ranking is highly likely to have many social, health and cultural oriented NGOs. Lower scores also indicate a higher need for basic services with lower profit margins, such countries present inadequate consumer markets and inadequate infrastructure for many industries.

Demonstrates a greater immediate need for philanthropic NGOs.

Demonstrates a lower need for philanthropic NGOs. Higher demand for modern industry (including luxury items and technology).

99%

1%

Percentile

Freedom of the Press IndexReporters Without Borders

1

2

3

4

5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

.5

The media, as an NSA, is highly likely to have greater influence on a country with less restrictions on freedom of the press, except where the media is state controlled. Greater press freedom is also more likely to increase the numbers of different forms of media, which also increases the number of NSAs. Freer press also indicates more exposure to social humanitarian issues, which enhances NGOs abilities to raise funds.

More Freedom of the Press:•More public exposure of social/ humanitarian issues

Less Freedom of the Press

1%

99%

Percentile

Wild Card Nuance: Media (press) often plays a huge role in insurgent activities. Regardless of the freedom of press allowed, media is often highly influential in insurgencies even when media channels must be clandestine or originate from another country’s soil. In insurgency struggles this index is a poor indicator of the role of media.

Civil Rights & Liberty ScoresFreedom House

1

2

3

4

5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

.5

Countries with lower scores in the two categories are likely to interact with NSAs that have a larger role and more influence in a state. Countries with higher scores that are partly free or not free are likely to have fewer NSAs, with decreasing influence.

Fewer NSAs and Less Influence

More NSAs and Greater Influence

1

7

Score

1

2

3

4

5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

.5

1

7

Score

!!CHECK!!Dispute Resolution Required

Global Peace Index(The Economist Intelligence Unit, Peace Institutes and Think Tanks,

Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Sydney, Australia)

1

2

3

4

5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

.5

Countries with lower rankings (1,2,3 etc) are more likely to have peaceful NSA's that contribute peacefully to the economy, culture, and politics. Countries with high rankings are more likely to have violent NSAs, such as terrorist groups, paramilitary groups, and criminal organizations.

Indicates the pervading presence of violent non-State Actors

Indicates few violent non-state actors

99%

1%

Percentile

Global Info Tech IndexThe World Economic Forum

1

2

3

4

5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

.5

Outsourcing technology in reshaping the economic landscape of the planet. Information technology not only increasing the potential for firms to open new outsourcing industries, but also increases the populace’s exposure to foreign media, foreign ideologies, allows them to network with like-interested groups, etc. The information technology index has so many implications that it should be considered in specific contexts.

More Info Tech

Less Info Tech

1%

99%

Percentile

Analysis must not only determine the implications of Info Tech to NSAs, but also if and how they are using them. Forecasting the progress of info tech is paramount to determining future trends in the role of NSAs.

Economic Freedom IndexHeritage Foundation and Wall Street Journal

1

2

3

4

5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

.5

A free economy makes it highly likely for NSA (particularly business) to have a greater role and influence in society. This means more influence, and greater numbers of NSA. Countries with little or no economic freedom will mean less NSA's, and more power and influence in the hands of a few NSA (like ethnic groups).

More Economic Freedom indicates more investment opportunities for NSAs and security for those investiments

Less economic freedoms restricts NSAs from owning property or industry and provides little security for invested capital. Low econimc freedoms favors more powerful and capital rich foreign state actors

1%

99%

Percentile

Democracy IndexThe Economist

1

2

3

4

5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

.5

Free countries are likely have more and varied NSAs, which will hold greater influence. Repressive countries will have fewer NSAs, which will have disproportionate influence in the state. Low scoring countries have less political participation outside the ranks of the ruling regime. Additionally lower scores likely indicate that NSAs will be held to lower standards of conduct. Furthermore, democratic leaders are more accountable to the people and are likely to facilitate the role of NGOs in dealing with social problems.

Higher values of the Dem. Index indicates that NSAs willing have more opportunities to influence politics in the country.

Lower values of the Dem. Index indicates NSAs will have fewer and less effective venues to influence politics in the country.

1%

99%

Percentile

Business NSAs• Business NSA’s role coefficient is calculated by averaging the scores the

following indexes:– Ease of Doing Business Index– Economic Freedom Index– Human Development Index (inverted)

• Business NSA’s “quality” scores will be determined by the separate consideration of the following indexes:

– Transparency Index– Global Information Technology Index– Democracy Index

Zimbabwe:

Ease of Doing Business= .85

1

2

3

4

5 1%

99%

Percentile

1 (85%)

Economic Freedom: .98

1

2

3

4

5 1%

99%

Percentile

0 (98%)

Human Development (inverted) = .88

1

2

3

4

5 1%

99%

Percentile

.5 (88%)

ZimbabweBiz NSA coef = .5(1+0+.5)/3= .5

Transparency= .84

1

2

3

4

5 1%

99%

Percentile

1 (84%)

ZimbabweBiz NSA coef

ZimbabweQuality Dimensions

Global Info Tech= .97

1

2

3

4

5 1%

99%

Percentile

0 (97%)

Democracy= .88

1

2

3

4

5 1%

99%

Percentile

.5 (88%)

Little accountability to populace

Limited infrastructure/ opportunity for IT. Extractive resources dominate

High Corruption, Biz NSAs must engage in practices which appease regime

Higher scores indicate more Biz NSA activity

Philanthropic NSAs(Charitable NGOs)

• Philanthropic NSA’s role coefficient is calculated by averaging the scores the following indexes:

– Human Development Index– Democracy Index– Freedom of the Press

• Philanthropic NSA’s “quality” scores will be determined by the separate consideration of the following indexes:

– Transparency Index– Civil Rights and Liberties Score

Zimbabwe:

Human Development= .88

1

2

3

4

5 99%

1%

Percentile

4.5 (88%)

Democracy Index: .88

1

2

3

4

5 1%

99%

Percentile

.5 (88%)

Press Freedom= .88

1

2

3

4

5 1%

99%

Percentile

1 (83%)

ZimbabwePhil NSA coef = .5(4.5+.5+1)/3= 2

Transparency= .84

1

2

3

4

5 1%

99%

Percentile

1 (84%)

ZimbabwePhil NSA coef

ZimbabweQuality Dimensions

Civil Liberties Score= 7

1

2

3

4

5 1

7

Score

0 (7)

1

2

3

4

51

7

Score

.5 (6)

NGO pop. are more likely to include political activist organizations

NSAs must deal with a plethora of corrupt actors to facilitate their work

Civil Rights Score= 6

Higher scores indicate more Phil NSA activity

Armed NSAs• Armed NSA’s role coefficient is calculated by averaging the scores the

following indexes:– Global Peace Index– Transparency Index– Human Development Index (inverted)

• Business NSA’s “quality” scores will be determined by the separate consideration of the following indexes:

– Democracy Index – Economic Freedom Index– Global Information Technology Index

Zimbabwe:

Global Peace= .88

1

2

3

4

5 1%

99%

Percentile

.5 (88%)

Transparency: .84

1

2

3

4

5 1%

99%

Percentile

1 (84%)

Human Development (inverted) = .88

1

2

3

4

5 1%

99%

Percentile

.5 (88%)

ZimbabweBiz NSA coef = .5(.5+1+.5)/3= .666

ZimbabweBiz NSA coef

ZimbabweQuality Dimensions

Economic Freedom = .98

1

2

3

4

5 1%

99%

Percentile

0 (98%)

Democracy= .88

1

2

3

4

5 1%

99%

Percentile

.5 (88%)

Armed NSAs are more likely to use separatist and insurgency strategies

Armed NSA’s behavior is more likely to be characterized by control of resources

Civil Liberties Score= 7

1

2

3

4

5 1

7

Score

0 (7)

1

2

3

4

51

7

Score

.5 (6)

Armed NSAs are more likely to be motivated by political activitism

Civil Rights Score= 6

Lower scores indicate more Armed NSA activity