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#NoEstimatesRobert Weißgraeber

TYPO3 Conference 2013Stuttgart, 30st Oct

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/meRobert WeißgraeberPrincipal @ aexea

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communication. content. consulting.

/me@robert_we

4coffee image: epsos.de

#foodkoma

#NoEstimates as a hashtag

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why do we estimate?

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(1)

typical questions to be answered

"when will it be finished?"

"when do you have feature X ready?"

"what does it cost?"

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abstractionneed to know about cost to make decision

need to know some numbers to make a plan

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customer value?how can we do it?

how can we do better?

why estimates cause problems.

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time vs. effort:your mileage may vary

time, as in effort of a task, can not be compared

between people

individual productivity may vary

duration depends on lots of factors: resources, task-switching

requirements get stale

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„Work expands so as to fillthe time

available for its completion.“

Parkinsown‘s Law

12Cyril Northcote Parkinson, 1955

estimates are muda (waste)a number has no intrinsic value for your software

Lean: „...any human activity that absorbs resources but creates no value.“

Principles behind the Agile Manifesto: „Simplicity – the art of maximizing the amount of work not done – is essential.“

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gaming the system

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gaming the systemPeople turn estimates into targets. Meeting the target becomes the de facto goal and the de facto method.  Meeting needs fades in priority.

People construe estimates  as promises. No one can predict the future, but many people treat estimates as guarantees. Failed predictions fan blame. Trust and openness suffer.

http://www.estherderby.com/2012/03/estimating-is-often-helpful-estimates-are-often-not.html

story points & velocitystory points instead of time!

18Photos: DieselDemon, Kyle May, CC-by via flickr

Lake Wobegon effectaka Illusory Superiority

aka „above average effect“

people misestimate their own ability

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survivorship bias„... is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility.“

look at all your projects

even those, which didn‘t happen

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no estimates!

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productivity by estimation strategy22

1985, Jeffery-Lawrence

people are already doing this!story count gives a more stable prediction than story point velocity

by Vasco Duarte using Scrum (@duarte_vasco)

various different projects

http://bit.ly/NoEstimatesProjectsDB

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focus on value

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Customer collaboration over contract negotiation.

Responding to change over following a plan

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requirements are not stable

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abstractionuse value as primary decision criteria

be better at executing, delivering – the in comparison to the real world, not some plan

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arbitrary plancost-driven decision

ignore youre potential

what to do?

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simple!

1. select the most important part of work that has to be done

2. break it down into small chunks (risk neutral, commitable...)

3. deliver it

4. iterate and refactor

30(by Vasco Duarte) Photo: mtshaw, CC-by via flickr

observe and predictobserve & measure

think about your indicators

do not put guesses in

predict the future

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stable development processyou need a stable development flow, system, people

you can concentrate on improving this

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self-regulating predictionnumber of stories instead of arbitrary guess

size of stories may change over time

observed outcome changes -> changes prediction

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kanban anyone?

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readynew doing delivered done

readynew doing delivered done

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• lead time• cycle time• flow

scrum “stories of size 1“

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chaordic/chaotic: no estimation, focus on delivering?

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but... what is the price for the customer?

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Price?

be Agile!do not be trapped in a plan

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focus on valuehighest value first

how many features in your projects do not deliver value?

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Trust.

Iterate, don‘t estimate.43

what not to do!

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do not refuse to answer estimation requests.

but…

45Photo: jcolman, CC-by via flickr

large projects, unbreakable chunks

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not large, monolithic projects47Photo: Steven Thomas

woman in pastoral setting

increment & iterate & deliver

Wrap UpGuessing + Estimates are bad

value and cost are not related

focus on value, focus on better delivering, gain trust

stop estimating

look at your process to get #BeyondEstimates

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thank you.

thank you. discuss!

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#BeyondEstimates

#NoProjects