Estimates or #NoEstimates?DO PM, 18 January 2017

● Improve our understanding of requirements

● Work out pricing

● Help prioritise

● Enable planning

● Set expectations

● Agree deadlines

● Coordinate resources

● Allow progress to be tracked

● Got told to

● Because that’s what we’ve always done

Why do we estimate?

Why is estimating so difficult?

“There are known knowns. These are things

we know that we know. There are known

unknowns. That is to say, there are things

that we know we don't know. But there are

also unknown unknowns. There are things

we don't know we don't know.”

Donald Rumsfeld, US Secretary of Defense

Can you estimate the length of this pencil?

● Unclear requirements

● Don’t have time (to explore the options)

● Incomplete information

● Incorrect information or assumptions

● Lack of previous experience

● Evolving requirements mid-project

● Estimates may differ depending on who’s due to do the work

What makes estimating hard?

The #NoEstimates debate

This guy started it...

Woody Zuill

Blog post about a successful

software project completed

without estimates

Published in 2012

Shared via Twitter + started the

hashtag #NoEstimates

The argument

● Because we’ve been doing estimates for so long, everyone

assumes they’re a necessity

● Estimates are always inaccurate and therefore pointless

● Estimates are often padded by developers

● Estimates are a waste of valuable time

The #NoEstimates camp

The counterargument

● Of course estimates are always wrong

● Refusing to provide estimates can be insensitive to the needs of the wider

company

● Providing an estimate may impact multiple departments, teams, and

individuals in ways the developer isn't privy to

● If you can't provide an estimate you won't get funding

● If your estimates are inaccurate, why not improve them?

● Businesses are built by predicting and analyzing market trends. Future

forecasts are based on past performance.

The #Estimates camp

Closing thoughts....

Waterfall > Agile > #NoEstimates