New Training Course on Use of NWP in Forecast Operations

William R. BuaStephen D. Jascourt*

UCAR/COMET*presenter

Outline

1. Existing COMET NWP Training2. NWP Training Needs for Forecasters3. Course Design4. Course Content Overview5. Conclusion

Existing COMET NWP TrainingOriented toward operational forecasterFree, publicly available: www.meted.ucar.edu

Existing COMET NWP TrainingOriented toward operational forecasterFree, publicly available: www.meted.ucar.edu

Existing COMET NWP TrainingOriented toward operational forecasterFree, publicly available: www.meted.ucar.edu• Course on fundamentals of NWP (1999-2000)• Reference matrix on current models

– parameterizations, terrain, layers, assimilated data, …– ensemble configurations

• Modules (NAM-WRF, ensemble basics, RTMA, etc.)• Mini-cases (mostly old)• VISITview Teletraining archives

Focus mostly model concepts and specific modelsNeed more on use in forecast context

NWP Training Needs for Forecasters Survey (JP4.5) of NWS SOOs and Scientific Service Divisions

Identified 4 main categories:• Forecast process (pay attention to observations, analyze/think!)• Core model topics (bias, diagostics, what’s in the model, etc..)• Uncertainty/probabilistic (focusing heavily on use of ensembles)• Local-scale forecasting (high-resolution models, downscaling, etc.)

Identified priority topics:• Using NWP to assess forecast uncertainty, probabilistic NWP• Using NWP for mesoscale prediction• Using NWP in preparing 5-km and 2.5-km forecast grids

Course DesignDesign: ~ NWS/WDTB Advanced Warning Operations Course

• 1-page consolidated user interface• Subject Matter Experts content and organization• Individual lessons grouped into units• Practical application on Weather Event Simulator (WDTB help)• Quiz for credit: each lesson, certificate upon completing a unit

Instructional Designers: Lessons = Lectures

1) Update old course2) Continue providing model-specific information3) New units on use of NWP in forecast process

New Course

Course Content OverviewUnit 1: Orientation

Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process

Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation

Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)

Unit 2: NWP Basics

Unit 6: Emerging future topics

brief

includes updated, trimmed old course 2009

2009

2010

2009

2011+

2010

Course Content OverviewUnit 1: Orientation

Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process

Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation

Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)

Unit 2: NWP Basics

Unit 6: Emerging future topics

brief

includes updated, trimmed old course 20092011+

20092011+

2010

20092011+

2011+

2010

And update

Course Content OverviewUnit 1: Orientation

Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process

Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation

Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)

Unit 2: NWP Basics

Unit 6: Emerging future topics

Model system (generic fundamentals):• Dynamics, terrain, precipitation, radiation, PBL, etc.• Postprocessing• Assimilation• Ensembles

Model matrix – reference look-up informationNew Emerging tools:

• North American Ensemble Forecast System• High-resolution (convection-allowing) models• Bias correction• Downscaling

Course Content OverviewUnit 1: Orientation

Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process

Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation

Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)

Unit 2: NWP Basics

Unit 6: Emerging future topics

Steps in Forecast Process• Preparing to evaluate NWP models and forecast + WES case• Analysis and model initialization + WES case• Determining plausible forecast outcomes + WES case• Optimizing use of model data products + WES case• Understanding the role and use of deterministic vs. probabilistic NWP information + WES case• Recognizing where and when human can add value to NWP + WESSynthesis in WES case

Course Content OverviewUnit 1: Orientation

Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process

Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation

Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)

Unit 2: NWP Basics

Unit 6: Emerging future topics

Course Content OverviewUnit 1: Orientation

Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process

Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation

Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)

Unit 2: NWP Basics

Unit 6: Emerging future topics

NWS gridded forecast production – possible topics:• Starting points• Evaluating model data in the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE)• Downscaling techniques in GFE• Forecast funnel in the NWS forecast environment• Small spatial scales at long time ranges

Course Content OverviewUnit 1: Orientation

Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process

Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation

Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)

Unit 2: NWP Basics

Unit 6: Emerging future topics

Possible topics depending on needs, technology in forecast office:• When data flow changes from push to pull: which data to select?• Quick assessment of model data: wading through data spigot• 3-d visualization of model data • Interpreting environmental forecasts, not just weather

Course Content OverviewUnit 1: Orientation

Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process

Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation

Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)

Unit 2: NWP Basics

Unit 6: Emerging future topics

Content Trimming PrincipleCould it affect a forecaster’s decision?

Conclusion

New COMET distance-learning NWP Course:• Collaborative effort with SOOs and other NWS experts• Update + shorten course on NWP basics/fundamentals• Continue updating information on current models• Focus new content on context in forecast process• Interactive, not lectures• Limit content to what forecaster will actually use