new study: available now eu, asia hold; us dap, india acid ...pcs aurora & w spr. 125 missphos...

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25 June 2015

Published by

Profercy Phosphates SC

Editor Tom Jago

New Study: Available now

Details P5: Price US$2,500

The ECONOMICS

Vol 1 DAP, MAP

Producer position & outlook Global DAP, MAP industry stock change

at end June for early July still shows a

minor net build. At just over 140,000 and

spread worldwide across the 10 key

export points, producers are comfortable,

as shown below, and in relatively solid

DAP, MAP price levels in all markets. .

World DAP/MAP snapshot

Export position changes Kt

USA -33

Mexico +8

Russia +43

Lithuania +12

Morocco -5

Tunisia +23

Saudi Arabia +2

Australia +15

Jordan +30

China port warehouse +45

End-June stock change +140

Speciality NPKs: Export spike Unlike in commodity P ferts, next week’s

China’s export tax rise has brought a sales

wave & temporarily lower prices. Some

prompt low-end deals, but new offers up P7

window close lifts supply, weakens prices.

Phosphates trade fragmented, defying search for trend;

EU, Asia hold; US DAP, India acid up; MAP soft in Brazil

The global phosphates market continues split, East, West, North & South. Prices

are stable in all of Asia, Europe, Argentina, softer on MAP in Brazil, but inching up

in two specific key markets; Indian phosacid and NOLA DAP. These contradictory

moves point to the highly regionalized global trade climate today, as each market

reflects its own internal fundamentals. This defies attempts to discern a global

trend, and complicates trader position-taking. Producers are the least stressed,

confident that big deferred import demand is still hidden for Q3, as crop prices

improve. Broadly speaking, DAP is firm in its key markets - all of Asia, Europe and

NOLA. Two clear examples of unusual trade flows in recent days are symptomatic

of tight spot conditions: (a) big Moroccan DAP exports to Turkey (normally OCP

ships only acid & rock to this market), and (b) a South African import purchase of

Moroccan phosacid. In contrast, MAP has slipped in Brazil, this time on slim-

volume long liquidation of 11-52 and 11-44. Underlying the Brazil story, the Saudi

shift to MAP (taking forward formula price risk that neither Saudi exporter would

typically take on DAP in Asia) is adding to 11-52 supply, already bigger with

Australian MAP in play. While these MAP moves have eroded Russian MAP fob

confidence in remaining July avails, they both tighten DAP in Asia. This in turn,

bolsters scope for Russian NPKs in India, still at strong Baltic netbacks. More P2

One-minute briefing

US export DAP, MAP holds in low, mid $470s fob Tampa; Morocco, China also flat

NOLA again inches up to $422-425pst fob, MAP offers lifted to $435pst fob NOLA

This follows CME crop surge & as OCP cancels July DAP, MAP exports to the US

OCP move linked to big DAP sales to Turkey, and quick phosacid deal to India

India pays up marginally for phosacid to $810pt P2O5 cfr; S Africa imports acid

The India acid deal again for 6 months; this is flip side of 100% spot DAP imports

India, Pakistan, SE Asia back for more DAP, supporting China at $465-475pt fob

Brazil MAP slips on small-lot long liquidation; 2 July set as farm credit pay date

Argentina takes more MAP, DAP, ex Australia; Buyers getting by on just enough

Outlook

of P hosphate

© Copyright 2015 Profercy Phosphates SC All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval

system or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 02

US DAP, MAP Balance

Exporter Dest Kt

Mosaic Brazil 115

Argentina 33

Mex, C America 37

Japan 26

Venezuela 23

New Zealand 24

India 110

Contracts & Mosaic system* 65

PCS No exports 0

Local sales All producers 385

Total 818

Est. Production

Mosaic** (excl MES) 515

former CF 145

PCS Aurora & W Spr. 125

MissPhos Closed down 0

Total 785

Stock change end-June -33

** Mosaic is reckoned to have Q3 DAP,

MAP& MES at top rates at all 4 Florida

plants and in Louisiana.

* Mosaic contracts & off-shore system

incl.: Brazil, Colombia & Mexico.

Mexico balance DAP, MAP

Mar. April

Fertinal Chile (D, M, T) 70

Local, C Am 17

Koch Australia 55

Ameropa Argentina 35

May, June

Fertinal Chile (D, M, T) 30

Local, C Am 25

2nd lot in Q2 Chile (D, M, T) 35

Total sales 267

Production Estimate Kt

Mar, Apr Some TSP 160

May, June D/MAP, TSP 115

Total 275

Stock change end-June +8

Fertinal output issues (rock imports

supplementing output) & sales locally &

Chile mean it is tight into July. No July

export TSP to Bangladesh, however

Summary (from P1)

So while there is no catch-all world phosphates trend, there is still one

common theme: Almost all importers are resigned to 11th hour decisions,

risking their own internal market shares on thin pipeline stocks, while the

industry from China to the US sits on big cash margins, comfortably holding

out deferring sales decisions to the last minute on the following month’s export

program. In between these, most traders are turning May and June positions

net positive, even with this last round of long liquidation on minor volumes to

Brazil, mostly to avoid additional port discharges. The next big date in Brazil is

the 2 July deadline the government has self-imposed for payment of the first

tranche of farm credit payments. In nearby Argentina, MAP demand has

remained solid, as fresh business on 11th hour demand repeats last done.

TSP is also solid in all of its world markets.

North America US export: Mosaic has informed on fresh sales of a total 27,000t DAP & MAP

to EC Canada & Latin America at little changed pricing ranging $470-475pt

fob Tampa. This looks to be the frst vessel shipment of the 2015-16 pre-

season to Canada.

Mosaic’s competitive stance through most of last season on Tampa

shipments to EC Canada meant the Canadian vessel import business

did not attract other sellers. The resulting total capture of Canadian

imports by the US (ie both rail and sea-borne) is another important feature

in the US domestic balance, leading to strong volumes of both railed and

sea-going tonnage headed north of the border at a time of US production

capacity cutbacks.

Tampa program: The US export program for 1H June-loading at Tampa was

firm – at 345,000t DAP, MAP combined, plus additional MES on many of the

export vessels. The program to Brazil is major, as Mosaic gradually builds its

direct market-share business there. This is part of the reason for spot deferral

by some smaller Brazil buyers. Two intended late-June panamaxes for India

are likely reduced to one with high pressure on the load berth, as Brazil loads

expand in 2H June

Tampa DAP/MAP line-up – June (plus MES in combo)*

Vessel Kt Destination Load

Koombana Bay 20 Venezuela 2

Mystic Striker* 32 Brazil 3

Clipper Tarpon 14 C America 3

Benjamas Naree 22 New Zealand 3

Nord Liberty* 30 Brazil 4

Cielo di Amalfi* 28 Brazil 5

Adfines South* 34 Argentina 6

Cielo di Livorno* 35 Brazil 6



Morocco DAP, MAP, NP/Ks

OCP sales Kt

OCP Brazil MAP, NPs* 200

OCP Brazil own sys 30

Turkey 25

West Europe 65

East Europe 15

DAP & NPK W Africa 45

Local 25

Total sales 405

Production Estimate* Kt

OCP* 400

Total avail 400

Stock change end-June* -5

* OCP is poised to commission granulation

at the Jorf Lasfar Hub Unit 1 from late-June,

suggesting greater volumes for July

shipment. This will be pending acid

volumes to India, other Asia markets & to

Europe and Brazil.

Tunisia balance

Sales Mar, April Kt

GCT Italy 22

France 18

Spain 12

Local 12

Sales May, June Kt

GCT Italy 5

Turkey 18

Total sale 87


Mar, April 75

May, June 35

Total avail 110


GCT is heard down on all downstream

concentrated phosphates operations,

including TSP at Sfax & Gabes DAP. GCT

was poised to engage on more DAP to

Turkey for Q2. Just one 2015 season cargo

is heard to date.

Balsa 82 5 Dominican Rep 9

Jacamar Arrow* 28 Brazil 11

Ocean Princess* 35 Brazil 13

San 15 C America 14

Ise 20 Japan 16

Clipper Bettina* 27 India 2H

Tbn (seen rolling to July) - India 2H

Tota 1H Junel 345

So far in June, just one part-lot (with rock) cross-gulf vessel on the MV Mississippi E.

US domestic: NOLA DAP picked up mid-week after a slow start to the week,

moving from initial trades at $419-420pt fob to $422-423pst fob. All of this is

on re-sales of domestic material, with US MAP heard at a $5-7pt premium.

There are few imported volumes left in spot circulation. Due to a firm

Moroccan export program of DAP to Turkey, and phosacid to India (see

related sections), we now think there will be no July shipment DAP, MAP

imports to the US from any major off-shore supply point. Apart from the latest

Moroccan changes, it is too late for China, while Russia has minor July-load

balance). The one remaining candidate, Mexico, has other priorities.

US production & balance: The US has lost around 950,000t in DAP,

MAP capacity this fertilizer year vs last (MissPhos, Pascagoula & part of

PCS, White Springs). While of course there is still plenty of time to import

large volumes from Morocco or Russia, no imports until mid-August (due

to the latest Moroccan shipment moves) suggests that Mosaic needs to

reduce exports to maintain steady avails to the US domestic market.

Price histories: Over the last year or so, since the Mosaic/CF

phosphates acquisition and three price cycles up and down $50-60pt at

Tampa, Mosaic has been consistently competitive at NOLA.

NOLA DAP upside tolerance: Basis our research into N, P2O5 & K2O

spending multiples in our new Profercy report, The Economics of

Phosphate, the last 3 times corn futures exceeded $3.70/bu, DAP looks

affordable at up to $435 pst fob NOLA - also assuming July urea and

potash hold at current levels.

Latin America Argentina: The last part of a Russian mid July-load 11-52 cargo (partly sold

already via a trader though to Bunge Argentina and Uruguay) is on offer at

$505pt cfr Argentina. This is little changed from last done in these markets.

Brazil: New business for 11-52 MAP is confirmed from a floating vessel at

Paranagua ranging $485-493pt cfr with buyers including Mosaic, Fertipar,

Yara and others. The business looks to have liquidated final remaining

volumes to avoid moving the vessel to a further disport. Other traders have

had 11-52 offers this week in the low $490s pt cfr, so far not placing fresh

business. There will be just on Moroccan MAP/DAP combo to Brazil in July,



Russia DAP, MAP balance

Phosagro sales Kt

Phosagro India (15-15-15) 60

India DAP 60

West Europe DAP 15

Keytrade S America MAP 35

East Eur (M, NPK) 35

Local, FSU (MAP) 65

Local, FSU (NPKs) 75

container SE Asia (D, NPKs) 10

Eurochem sales Kt

Eurochem E Eur, Baltic (M, D) 35

Trader S America (MAP) 30

West Europe (D) 10

Local, FSU (MAP) 35

Total Sales 465


Phosagro Cherepovets D 65

Cherepovets M* 95

Balakovo M 65

NP/NPKs (all units) 160

Eurochem Fosforit M, D 70

Belorechensk M 55

Total avail 510


There still looks to be 1 cargo of Russian

MAP to place for end-June loading.

Phosagro is poised to enter gradual

summer turnaround process from late June

to September taking out roughly 40-

45,000tpm of MAP, DAP & NPKs combined

(around 10% of monthly output)

Lithuania balance DAP

Lifosa Kt

Eurochem Germany 12

France, Belgium 12

UK, Ireland 4

Eurochem Baltic, East Eur 20

Total sale 48


June Output bk up 60

Total avail After turnaround 60

Stock change end June +12

this likely for Heringer/OCP Fertilizantes, therefore outside regular spot

channels.

Port resale prices are firming: MAP 11-52 into the $570s pt fob

baggged ex Paranagua cash basis, and at higher levels with credit terms.

There are reports of 0-30-10 firming to $400pt fot bagged.

Chinese MAP: Some fresh minor volume purchases of 11-44 MAP

surfaced since our last report. These are heard to be in 3-4,000t lots from

two separate vessels for July arrival at $393, $394, $395pt cfr. Coated 10-

50 is shown in the low $460s pt cfr.

TSP: Mexican TSP is heard sold in a wide range of $385-405pt cfr in

various minor lots into 3-4 ports Brazil and Argentina combined.

SSP: Egyptian 18% P2O5 SSP is offered from trader length ex Parangua

port stocks at $220pt fot ex warehouse bagged. This reflects around

$180pt cfr bulk.

Mexico export: Fertinal still has unclear production status (it has been

importing rock), and has pending contract lots to execute for Chile and nearby

markets such as Colombia, Central America and the local Mexican market.

225

275

325

375

425

475

525

575

625

675

$ p

t fo

b T

am

pa

DAP $pt fob Tampa boxed in narrow range in low $470s pt fob

Steady return of deferred demand helps industry hold prices up in the narrowest trade range of the last 5 years



Saudi DAP, MAP Balance

Exporter Jan, Feb

Sabic Pakistan 35

Thailand 20

India TCL, ZIL 65

East Africa 25

Ma’aden Pakistan Pak Arab 30

S America Nitron 85

Australia 40

Pakistan 30

India IPL, Kribhco 75

Exporter Mar, April

Sabic Pakistan Engro 30

India Zuari 35

India IFFCO 30

Thailand 28

Ma’aden S America Nitron 40

India IPL x 2 70

India Kribhco x 2 65

Exporter May, June

Sabic Kenya 25

Tanzania 15

India IFFCO x 2 80

South Africa 20

Both poss Pakistan UAC 25

carry to Jul Pakistan Pak Arab 25

Ma’aden Pakistan Engro 30

Pakistan Pak Arab 25

India PPL 40

India IPL x2 70

India Kribhco x 2 70

Total sales 1,128

Estimated Production Kt

Jan, Feb All DAP 410

Mar, Apr D, MAP turnaround 345

May, June Ali DAP 375

Total avails 1,130


Saudi Arabia’s two exporters deferred pricing

decisions on end-May carry and have now

recently priced 3 cargoes to India for June

reflecting the low $470s pt fob, Sabic has new

business for South Africa

Europe, Africa Turkey: Following our reports last week of big Turkish import demand for

Moroccan DAP, it is understood there is more than double the business

volume we had first noted. OCP has agreements to ship 150,000t DAP in July

alone via Toros and Gubretas at prices heard in the low $510s pt cfr, for a

netback around $500pt fob Morocco.

Why so much, and so intensely? Turkey is short DAP this year, having

deferred its import needs to the last minute (as is the norm in most

markets today) to find Tunisia, its normal base-load supplier has no July

export avails. GCT has this year supplied just one end May/early June

cargo of 18,000t DAP to Gubretas, while only 50,000t more has been sold

from Lithuania and Jordan. That means just 68,000t from a total Q3 DAP

import requirement of around 300,000t.

vs. earlier assumptions: We had already factored in 40-50,000t

Moroccan DAP to Turkey (already unusual as OCP normally only ships

acid and rock to Turkey.

Significant implications for other markets; especially USA: The first

implication of the additional shipments to Turkey is deferral of at least one

July panamax shipment to the US, and probably both. This also limits

some volumes available to Europe and to South America (more in

Morocco item below).

Morocco: OCP has now settled most of its July-shipment program as follows:

150,000t DAP to Turkey, 40,000t MAP to South Africa, 60,000t NPKs to

Nigeria/Mali, 30,000t DAP under G-to-G contract with BADC Bangladesh, and

40,000t NPK to the domestic market. This gives a base-load total around

320,000t. The G-to-G panamax is deferred to August.

Production: We are assessing CP output on all granular products in July

to be around 430,000t including some 50-60,000t new output from the

JPH I plant currently under commissioning, and assuming some bigger-

than-usual volumes of TSP from the Jorf units to supplement regular Safi

output to meet heavy commitments on TSP to Bangladesh, as well as

some regular under traditional supply tie-ups into West Europe.

Phosacid to India: For now the total eventual breakdown is unclear with

no Q3 deal on phosacid to India. Our assumption above is basis 80,000t

acid shipping to Indian jvs as a base-load. If an acid deal with all parties is

reached (OCP is asking for an as-yet unspecified increase), there could

be added pressure on granulation volumes according to the eventual acid

quantities and rate of shipments. Q3 is normally the peak acid shipment

month from Morocco to Asia, when local industries in India, Pakistan

would be maxing out in preparation for Rabi (Oct-Mar) season fertilizers.

Granulation balance available for spot sale: Basis known July

commitments for 320,000t DAP, MAP, NPKs so far, our export avail

assumption at 420,000t and no carry-over from June, there look to be

110,000t DAP, MAP left for July to be split between Europe and South

America. Even with a Europe roll-over at $510-515pt fob and seasonally



Australia balance DAP, MAP

IPL, Quantum April, May Kt

IPL Local 45

Local 40

Quantum Vietnam 20

Pakistan 35

IPL, Quantum June Kt

Quantum Thailand 25

Bangladesh 20

S America (MAP) 40

Total sale 225


April, May 160

June 80

Total avail 240


* IPL near nameplate output rates

250kt/qu, amid strong local Q1 demand.

Export program seen developing in Q2.

Pakistan is key destination in May/June,

with Bangladesh & SE Asia (also perhaps

India, but less likely) prime targets for

exports into Q3

Jordan balance DAP

JPMC April, May Kt

JPMC India IPL x 3 90

JPMC June Kt

JPMC India IPL 35

Turkey 30

Total sales 155


carry in 35

April turnaround 25

May 60

June 65

Total avails 185


moderate volume interest, we still expect 50,000t Moroccan DAP/MAP to

ship to all European markets East and West (Romania/Poland to

Spain/Portugal) in July. Again, the lack of Tunisian DAP is an issue in

South Europe.

Sold out in July: We think OCP is already negotiating a cargo of 30-

40,000t MAP, DAP for Heringer/OCP Fertilizantes in Brazil. Assuming a

deal on this is a formality, OCP would be sold out on DAP, MAP in Brazil,

and be shipping nothing to the US.

West Europe: Eurochem is headed into the start of the pre-season holding

out at its 11 June posting of 15-15-15 at €340pt, basically unchanged vs the

end of last season. This is tied to the strong EU import interest in DAP for

June shipment, which quickly took out all avails of Moroccan and Lithuanian

material. DAP prices are holding up just under $530pt fca NW Europe.

Prices in context: Today’s continuing robust DAP price levels in Europe,

even after the Q2 European wheat price decline, was taken as evidence

Europe can continue to pay current price levels as a season-start level.

This is linked to relatively low levels of N & K2O pricing.

This issue of affordability is one of the key topics of our new report The

Economics of Phosphate. We also look in detail at the producer cost

curve, recent and upcoming changes to today’s DAP producer ranking by

cost.

Russia: There are reports Phosagro and Eurochem, each holding a final July

export MAP cargo look ready to negotiate at marginally lower levels around

$470-475pt fob. If finally settled, this is a $5pt downside concession from the

peak targets in late May/early June. At these, prices Russian exporters still net

better on MAP to South America or on DAP to Europe, than on DAP to Asia.

The constant changes in the crop price environment (the latest move is to

the upside), has led to gradual changes in exporter postures, according to

importer affordability assessments. It remains to be seen if these lower

offers stay valid if crop prices build in the most recent gains, and if US

domestic market conditions continue to improve gradually.

Middle East, South Asia Saudi Arabia: Ma’aden has a further direct sale of MAP to Brazil for July

loading, this linked with Yara to follow an earlier deal with LDC. Both are

heard under formula. Along with Sabic’s earlier business to South Africa, there

is likely one MAP cargo left to place for late-July/early August, but with a

month left on the clock to place this.

DAP tactics: Remaining Saudi contract export decisions on DAP to India

for July are being deferred, pending last-minute forex conditions. The

higher acid price to India for 2H 2015 supports the earlier sell-side

preference to defer.

© Copyright 2015 Profercy Phosphates SC All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a

retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 07

The ECONOMICS New Report

Vol 1 DAP, MAP

This new 50-page Profercy DAP, MAP sector study evaluates costs & cost competitiveness and spending tolerance on all sides of the DAP, MAP business. This starts with producer exposure to raw materials costs, with 2015-17 set to see big changes along the cost curve. The report then evaluates DAP, MAP values from the importer stand-point to determine local and import spending tolerance against (a) crop prices and (b) prices for other nutrients N & K2O.

Our scope of work covers the world’s top price-driving markets, China, USA, Brazil, India & Europe, together accounting for over 75% of global DAP, MAP demand. Using Profercy’s unique database of N, P2O5 and K2O price intelligence, we map these values against prices for the main crops in these markets: China local corn, Brazil soybeans, USA corn & Europe wheat

The report examines:

● DAP cost curve: Changes now & future: Phosagro now lowest; and key Mosaic moves to cut NH3 & S costs, ready for a more competitive future

● New capacity costs escalate: Saudi jv comparison Ma’aden I vs Ma’aden II

● DAP, MAP import price tolerance vs. crops & in context of other nutrients:

China local DAP vs local corn, Brazil import MAP vs soybeans; US local DAP vs corn; India DAP import affordability; Europe import DAP vs wheat

● Risk. El Niño & monsoon impact on DAP prices, Hedging simulations

More information, including sample pages & full contents listing

please email [email protected]

India: Two further import prices are heard at $477pt cfr

EC, both for July shipment under Chinese producer

MoUs to East Coast buyers. This puts a further

110,000t on to the July import total, now looking to be

around 725,000t. Among new tenders in play, all

requirements are for prompt business, showing India’s

taste for last-minute purchasing, as the monsoon

gradually improves in most areas, above normal so far

in June.

Deepak closed a tender 24 June (valid 26 June) for

45,000t dark DAP to WC & 25,000t dark DAP to

EC, plus 25,000t beige 10-26-26 in 2 lots to WC.

The tender specifies July shipment/August arrival,

in either case as soon as possible. Bids are under

consideration.

RCF is heard to have received 6 offers into its 22

June tender for 75,000t August- arrival DAP. Price

offers will be opened in the next week, after

technical offer consideration.

India DAP S&D: The May FAI figures show India is

rapidly selling its firm DAP imports, and still

producing less y/y. Figures are only available for

April & May, but they show DAP imports at 1.45mt

are up strongly from last year’s very low

corresponding figure of 330kt. Sales are similarly

firm however, with 1.15m tonnes sold for the first 2

months comparing with 532,000t in April-May 2014.

As expected, local production of DAP is down in the

same y/y comparison, 427,000t vs 508,000t

Stocks: Inland stocks held in state storage showed

the tightening position, at end May at 310,000t DAP

vs. 495,000t at the same time last year.

Pakistan: There is now more clarity on the latest

Pakistan import action. There were 3 buyers in the

last round over (last week/10 days) UAC bought from

Sabic direct, Fauji from Dreymoor for Yihua product,

and Pak Arab apparently direct from Yihua– all in the

mid/high $480s pt cfr. This likely covers Pakistani

importers through to end July arrivals

Sri Lanka: A fresh tender closes 29 June for 28,000t

TSP.

East Asia China export: July-load 10-50 MAP is heard shown

by producers for 2H July/early August load at $425-

430pt fob. DAP offers for July are still in play on minor

volumes at $465-475pt fob China according to

destination.

of P hosphate $2,500

mailto:[email protected]



China domestic: Local producers are heard

anticipating this year’s obligatory, state-run stock build

campaign to be for 1m tonnes. This is up from 750-

800,000t in the last few years. The top 6 local

producers are obliged to sign up to this program for

shipments mid-August through early October. This is

the first intel in volume terms on the 2015 program.

Phosphoric acid India: The first phosphoric acid settlement has

emerged in India. A deal to one big East Coast

importer is rumoured to be for July-Dec 2015 is at

$810pt P2O5 cfr. This is up $5pt from the Jan-June

deal, and set the agenda for all other import buyers –

both contract, spot and jv-linked. Basis ammonia

today, The new acid price means a DAP import

equivalent at around $510pt cfr. So just as in most of

2014 and 2015 to date, imported DAP represents

much cheaper phosphate.

Period: This is the third consecutive, 6-month

acid deal in recent times (the first of was in August

2014, for Aug-Dec ’14), in contrast to the long-

term tradition for quarterly settlements. This

dependence on longer-term acid contract periods

is the flip side of the 100% spot DAP import

approach on DAP, and India’s recent taste for

just-in-time DAP and NPKs buying. This has

created tight local DAP market conditions,

supported strong local retail prices, and raises the

pressure on local producers (both rock & acid

based) to ensure consistent incoming feedstock.

Volume: Initial feedback on volume is sketchy,

suggestions are for a continuation of monthly acid

volumes from Morocco to India (OCP to jv

partners and 3rd parties) in Q3 in excess of

120,000tpm P2O5. Like the big Moroccan DAP

deals to Turkey, it shows that OCP is still filling a

supply gap left behind by GCT.

What it means for the parties involved the price

increase is very important, India giving back part

of what it had gained in the form of cheaper

ammonia. This continues to show the government

is ready pay a strong premium to defend local

production of DAP & NPKs on imported acid. The

local view is that without this (albeit more

expensive) route to phosphate fertilizers, India

would have excessive dependence on Chinese

DAP, and therefore too much exposure to times of

growth in Chinese domestic demand, or greater

affordability in other markets (for example

Australia and Europe in Q1, USA or South

America in Q3.

… and for the rest of the world: For other buyers of

phosphates, large acid volumes from Morocco and

the USA to India - even at these relatively high prices

- are a key factor in the global DAP/MAP S&D. It

means less pressure on OCP to chase business on

MAP or TSP in Brazil. For the US, there may also be

an impact, as PotashCorp’s acid netback looks

attractive vs. local NOLA DAP values.

South Africa: There are reports of an import

purchase of 30,000t solution phosacid sold basis

Moroccan product at $900pt P2O5 cfr.

254 268 322 355 355

398 463495 480 550

305315

370 360368

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

China India Brazil USA Europe

$/b

u C

ME

corn

S p

t cf

r, f

ot

DAP, MAP, urea, potash vs. corn a year ago..

Urea DAP, MAP MOP CME corn

Corn down 22% in the last year (compare red line in chart below), but rising China & India fert prices gives industry option to hold up values in the West

279 318 325 335 348

430478 500 468

530

315322 335 358

347

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

China India Brazil USA Europe

$/b

u C

ME

corn

$ p

t cfr

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Urea DAP, MAP MOP CME corn

Full 5-year affordabilty analysis for top 5 world DAP, MAP markets in our new 50-page report:

The Economics of Phosphate P7



DAP $ BULK 25 June 18 June

Tampa, US Gulf fob 471-475 471-475

Simulated net on Brazil, Arg spot* 477-480 480-485

Netbk on Mosaic India system** 460-463 460-463

KSA fob 475-485 475-485

Baltic, Black Sea fob 473-4478 475-480

Morocco fob 485-508 485-508

Tunisia fob 485-508 485-508

**China fob (low tax paid +RMB100pt) 465-475 465-475

Mexico fob 475-480 475-480

Jordan fob 470-480 465-480

India cfr spot 476-477 476-482

Brazil cfr 490-492 498-500

Argentina, Uruguay cfr 504-505 503-510

Pakistan cfr 485-488 485-488

Benelux, N France fob/fot 525-527 525-527

NOLA fob barge (st) 419-423 419-421

Florida fot (st) 430 430

China fot bgd ex wks ($ equiv.) 425-430 425-430 * any-origin business to Brazil, Arg ** net internal costs, taxes, forex, on Rs24kpt

NPK, NP $ BULK 25 June 18 June

16-16-16 fob FSU 300-360 300-360

16-16-16 fob FSU China netbk. 355-360 355-360

10-26-26 fob FSU 370-390 370-390

20-20-0 fob East Europe 315-320 315-320

19-38-0 7S fob Morocco 450-470 450-470

10-26-26 cfr India 420-425 420-425

16-16-16 cfr China 400-405 400-405

9-25-25 cfr NW Europe 425-430 425-430

15-15-15 cfr W Africa 350-355 350-355

16-16-16 cfr SE Asia 388-392 388-392

16-20-0 cfr SE Asia 295-300 295-300

0-30-10 fot ex store Brazil 400-405 400-405

15-15-15 fot ex wks China* 310-315 308-315

15-15-15 (SOP) fot ex wks China 355-360 350-360

25-13-7 fot ex wks N China 290-295 285-295

10-10-20 fot ex wks S China 280-285 280-285

EU NPK, NP (inland €) 25 June 18 June

15-15-15 cif bulk Benelux 335-340 335-340

17-17-17 cif bulk France 375-380 375-380

0-25-25 cif France 355-370 355-370

8-24-24 del bgd Italy 345-355 345-355

20-10-10 del bgd Italy 340-350 340-350

8-24-8 del bgd Spain 340-350 340-350

20-10-10 del bgd UK £ 295-300 295-300

SSP $ BULK 25 June 18 June

Egypt fob 158-162 158-162

Spain fob ($ equiv) 155-160 155-160

Italy € fot bgd ex store 185-195 185-195

Brazil fot ex store inland 295-305 295-305

INPUTS (+/- $pt of DAP) June (May) +/-

Ammonia cfr Tampa 450 (465) -3

cfr Morocco 425 (435) -2

cfr India 410 (425) -3

del wks China 445 (445) =0

Sulphur plt cfr Tampa Q1/Q4 132 (147) -8

cfr N Africa Q1/Q4 140 (155) -6

ex-warehouse China 180-185 (180) +2

MAP $ BULK 25 June 18 June

Baltic, Black Sea fob * 473-478 475-480

Tampa fob 474 474

Morocco fob 485-505 485-505

KSA fob 473-478 473-478

China fob (10-50) 430-435 430-435

China fob (11-44) 370-375 370-375

Brazil cfr (11-52) 485-493 498-500

Brazil cfr (11-44) 393-398 400-405

Brazil fot ex-store inland 120d 575-580 555-560

TSP $ BULK 25 June 18 June

Morocco fob 385-410 385-410

Tunisia fob 380-385 380-385

Mexico fob 370-375 370-375

China fob 320-330 320-330

Lebanon fob 375-410 375-410

Brazil cfr 375-400 375-400

Benelux. N France € fob/fot 465-475 465-475

Speciality NPK, NP+S US$ May April

MKP fob China 1200-1250 1200-1250

MKP fot ex wks (local RMB) 6775-6825 6775-6825

MKP cfr West Europe 1320-1340 1320-1340

MKP cfr Brazil 1300-1325 1300-1325

Tech MAP 12-61-0 cfr EU* 795-805 795-805

UP 17-44 cfr West Europe 765-770 765-770

12-40-0 10S 1Zn fot Florida pst 465-470 465-470 MKP 0-52-34; UP = Urea Phosphate * Low-end Chinese origin

PHOSACID MGA $pt P2O5 2H ‘15 1H ‘15

Morocco fob 730-900 725-900

India cfr 30d 810 805

West Europe cfr (1H) 950-980 950-980

Brazil cfr (1H) 950-965 950-965

PHOSPHATE ROCK $ P2O5 Q2 ‘15

Morocco fob 31-33% 125-130

China fot 29-31% 79-83

Syria fob 29-30% 86-89

Peru fob 30% 70-80

Algeria fob 29-30% 82-85

Tunisia fob 27-28% n.m.

Egypt fob 30-31% 75-80

Egypt fob 27-28% 62-68

Jordan fob 34-36% 125-130

Togo fob 35-36% 120-125

Russia fob 38-39% 168-188

Russia domestic del ($ equ.) 38-39% 150-155

India cfr 29-30% 87-95

India cfr 33-34% 133-140

International Prices $ per tonne bulk Profercy Phosphates SC pricing represents last known spot or

contract sales. Absent new trades, competitive indications will

apply; i.e. top bid in rising market or low offer in a falling market.

Netbacks on contract sales, formula or otherwise, may feature.

International quotes are for 4kt lots & above, rounded up to the

nearest US$. Italics = no recent business; n.m. = no market

new study: available now eu, asia hold; us dap, india acid ...pcs aurora & w spr. 125 missphos...

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