A G20 InItIAtIve

GlobAl InfrAstructure outlook

Infrastructure investment need in the compact with Africa countriesGlobal Infrastructure Outlook forecasts infrastructure investment needs to 2040 at a country and sector level. In 2018, it was updated to include the 10 countries participating in the G20 Compact with Africa (CwA), an ambitious yet practical effort to substantially increase infrastructure investment.

US $ 2.0 trillion is needed to close infrastructure gaps for the 10 CwA nations, increasing to $US 2.4 trillion to meet the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for electricity and water by 2030. This compares with $US 1.4 trillion forecasted based on current investment trends.

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forecAsts of InfrAstructure Investment for 10 cwA countrIes – 2016 to 2040$US Trillion

Current trends

Investment need

Investment need inc. SDGs by 2030

the majority of investment needs in electricity, roads and waterForecasted investment needs of electricity and roads, including SDGs, represent the majority of total investment need for the CwA countries. Of the $US 2.4 trillion needed by 2040, the greatest is in electricity at $US 974 billion, followed by roads at $US 519 billion and water at $US 426 billion.

Compared with the world, of the $US 97 trillion needed by 2040, the largest needs are in roads at $US 34 trillion, followed by electricity at $US 31 trillion and rail at $US 11 trillion.

explore infrastructure and economic dataGlobal Infrastructure Outlook allows users to explore the impact of drivers of investment need, including GDP growth rate, population growth rate and rate of urbanisation, on total infrastructure investment need.

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Benin

Cote d’Ivo

ire

Ghana

Guinea

Morocco

Ethiopia

Rwanda

Senegal

Tunisia

Egypt

Infrastructure investment needs by country as a proportion of GDP Ethiopia and Egypt comprises 60% of the GDP and 57% of the population of CwA countries. Together they comprise $1.5 trillion of the $2.4 trillion needed by CwA countries, and represent the majority of infrastructure investment need among Compact with Africa (CwA) countries taking into account UN’s Sustainable Development Goals for electricity and water access (SDG). However, as a proportion of GDP, Ethiopia and Guinea are forecast with the greatest investment need at 19% and 13% respectively.Figure 1 - Forecasts of infrastructure investment need 2016 - 2040, including SDGs

Figure 2 - Forecasts of infrastructure investment gaps 2016 - 2040, including SDGs

Electricity Piped water and improved sanitation

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current investment trends is unlikely to meet sDGs Current investment trends into the electricity and water sector are forecast to only meet 25% and 57% of that required to meet the SDGs for universal access to electricity and water in CwA countries

Figure 3 – Total investment need to meet universal access to electricity and water by 2030$US billion

Figure 4 – Current levels of access to electricity, potable water and sewage

Figure 5 – Forecast investment need of CwA countries including meeting SDGs

Figure 6 – Forecast investment need of the world including meeting SDGs

Electricity – $US 974 billion Road – $US 519 billion Water – $US 426 billion Remaining – $US 448 billion

Road – $US 33.67 trillion Electricity – $US 31.207 trillion Rail – $US 11.347 trillion Remaining – $US 20.971 trillion

Electricity Piped water

Improved sanitation

Average access 60% 41% 47%

Benin

Cote d’Ivo

ire

Ghana

Guinea

Morocco

Ethiopia

Rwanda

Senegal

Tunisia

Egypt

Figure 7 – Comparing drivers of investment need forecasts with investment need as a percentage of GDP, including meeting SDGs

% of GDP

SDGs Current trends

outlook.gihub.org

% of GDP $US billion

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15% $800 % of GDP $US billion

Benin

Cote d’Ivo

ire

Ghana

Guinea

Morocco

Ethiopia

Rwanda

Senegal

Tunisia

Egypt

% of GDP $US billion

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10% $400 % of GDP $US billion

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8% GDP growth rate  Population growth rate Urbanisation growth rate